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Author Topic: If there is a next season  (Read 4073 times)

nyg

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Re: If there is a next season
« Reply #25 on: March 30, 2020, 06:49:28 AM »
The problem with herd immunity is the number of deaths it would require. If we set herd immunity as 60% of the population, that's about 196,200,000 immune Americans. Which would be great. But at a 2.7% fatality rate (probably a low end estimate) that would require over 5,567,000 deaths.

Are we willing to kill 5.5 million people to get sports back sooner? I guess since we're well ahead of Italy and every other nation in terms of growth, we as a nation must be willing to find out.

And I'm not saying 5.5 million will die, just that herd immunity likely won't work in this case because getting there will take an obscene number of lives. To get herd immunity, we would need a vaccine first. That would allow us to build a herd without full infection and mortality rate that comes with it.

When will you feel comfortable/going to sitting at a restaurant table with people at a table next to you?
When will you feel comfortable/going to a football, basketball, hockey, baseball game with people next to you?
When will you feel comfortable going to a movie theater, play, concert with people seated next to you?
The same with church, casinos, and all congregations of people. 

The above are just simple questions that were recently asked by a local news station to citizens and discussed by a panel.  The results were amazing in that 86% of the the individuals asked said no, not comfortable and would not do it. The only way they would, is if a vaccine, that proved to work, was available. 

They went on and discussed how sporting venues, movies, theaters, etc. might have to sell tickets with empty seats in each direction of where you bought your tickets, resulting in a 25% capacity.

This is a real mess and will not end soon.  Your comments are a vaccine are correct, but it must prove to be effective first, gain the mental/physical approval of citizens, before any sporting event is attended by fans. 

How would you answer the above questions?  Myself, no until some vaccine.

Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: If there is a next season
« Reply #26 on: March 30, 2020, 07:51:49 AM »
When will you feel comfortable/going to sitting at a restaurant table with people at a table next to you?
When will you feel comfortable/going to a football, basketball, hockey, baseball game with people next to you?
When will you feel comfortable going to a movie theater, play, concert with people seated next to you?
The same with church, casinos, and all congregations of people. 

The above are just simple questions that were recently asked by a local news station to citizens and discussed by a panel.  The results were amazing in that 86% of the the individuals asked said no, not comfortable and would not do it. The only way they would, is if a vaccine, that proved to work, was available. 

They went on and discussed how sporting venues, movies, theaters, etc. might have to sell tickets with empty seats in each direction of where you bought your tickets, resulting in a 25% capacity.

This is a real mess and will not end soon.  Your comments are a vaccine are correct, but it must prove to be effective first, gain the mental/physical approval of citizens, before any sporting event is attended by fans. 

How would you answer the above questions?  Myself, no until some vaccine.


Some of this is a recency bias.

To answer your questions, I would be fine at a restaurant.  I may even be fine at a large outdoor event with proper distancing. 

But I think you are correct that the chances of having large crowds at sporting events, concerts, etc. by this fall are getting slimmer and slimmer. 
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.”  -Clarence Darrow

IrwinFletcher

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Re: If there is a next season
« Reply #27 on: March 30, 2020, 07:54:43 AM »
When will you feel comfortable/going to sitting at a restaurant table with people at a table next to you?
When will you feel comfortable/going to a football, basketball, hockey, baseball game with people next to you?
When will you feel comfortable going to a movie theater, play, concert with people seated next to you?
The same with church, casinos, and all congregations of people. 

The above are just simple questions that were recently asked by a local news station to citizens and discussed by a panel.  The results were amazing in that 86% of the the individuals asked said no, not comfortable and would not do it. The only way they would, is if a vaccine, that proved to work, was available. 

They went on and discussed how sporting venues, movies, theaters, etc. might have to sell tickets with empty seats in each direction of where you bought your tickets, resulting in a 25% capacity.

This is a real mess and will not end soon.  Your comments are a vaccine are correct, but it must prove to be effective first, gain the mental/physical approval of citizens, before any sporting event is attended by fans. 

How would you answer the above questions?  Myself, no until some vaccine.

People answer that way because they are frightened.  If people start going out to these venues and there is no signs of an uptick is sickness, then others will follow suit.  Those 86% may not be the first ones to go out when the all clear signs go out, but slowly, many will start to follow suit.  We can't stay couped up for 12-24 months.  If the medical professionals say it is OK, we will all start to come out and live our lives once again.

wiscwarrior

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Re: If there is a next season
« Reply #28 on: March 30, 2020, 08:36:53 AM »
What percentage of major sports revenues are generated by game attendance as opposed to broadcast contracts?

Lennys Tap

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Re: If there is a next season
« Reply #29 on: March 30, 2020, 10:05:51 AM »
The problem with herd immunity is the number of deaths it would require. If we set herd immunity as 60% of the population, that's about 196,200,000 immune Americans. Which would be great. But at a 2.7% fatality rate (probably a low end estimate) that would require over 5,567,000 deaths.

Are we willing to kill 5.5 million people to get sports back sooner? I guess since we're well ahead of Italy and every other nation in terms of growth, we as a nation must be willing to find out.

And I'm not saying 5.5 million will die, just that herd immunity likely won't work in this case because getting there will take an obscene number of lives. To get herd immunity, we would need a vaccine first. That would allow us to build a herd without full infection and mortality rate that comes with it.

Assuming a 2.7% fatality rate is the low end of the spectrum in th US is extremely pessimistic, even not accounting for the millions who will recover without ever knowing they were infected.

cheese ball chaser

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Re: If there is a next season
« Reply #30 on: March 30, 2020, 10:11:12 AM »
All the bars were not jam packed. Wrigleyville and river north was. I bagpiped at two bars (a huge decrease from my usual route before people yell at me), one was a ghost town, the other had less than half the crowd it usually would. 1 more day of incubation till that fallout should be over.

Shhhhh...that doesn't fit the anti-Chicago rhetoric of Scoop.

brewcity77

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Re: If there is a next season
« Reply #31 on: March 30, 2020, 11:20:05 AM »
Assuming a 2.7% fatality rate is the low end of the spectrum in th US is extremely pessimistic, even not accounting for the millions who will recover without ever knowing they were infected.

So far, Italy has one of the highest fatality rates (between 7.2 & 10% estimated in the past week) and we're outpacing them in terms of growth. We don't want to be Italy.

That's why the distancing is important. To give us time to find a vaccine so we build herd immunity through the vaccine and not mass contraction.

WhiteTrash

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Re: If there is a next season
« Reply #32 on: March 30, 2020, 01:24:54 PM »
I really like all my fellow MU fans and MUScoop, but this is the absolute last place for medical/virus information. Let's get back to MU hoops and college basketball.

geps

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Re: If there is a next season
« Reply #33 on: April 01, 2020, 07:02:03 AM »
UConn will be very good next year too.

UConn strong finish this year, winning last 5, ended up tied for 3rd place in AAC.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 07:03:42 AM by geps »

WarriorDad

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Re: If there is a next season
« Reply #34 on: April 01, 2020, 09:08:22 AM »
So far, Italy has one of the highest fatality rates (between 7.2 & 10% estimated in the past week) and we're outpacing them in terms of growth. We don't want to be Italy.

That's why the distancing is important. To give us time to find a vaccine so we build herd immunity through the vaccine and not mass contraction.

Dr. Fauci wrote this in New England Journal of Medicine this week

“[T]he case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%,” Fauci wrote in an article published in the New England Journal of Medicine on March 26. “This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”
“No one is more hated than he who speaks the truth.”
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MU82

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Re: If there is a next season
« Reply #35 on: April 01, 2020, 09:09:30 AM »
There is an entire COVID-19 section over at the Superbar. Come on, folks!
"We have thrown 15 years of institutional learning out the window and are making decisions based on intuition."

-- Dr. James Lawler, former Bush and Obama infectious-disease adviser

WarriorDad

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Re: If there is a next season
« Reply #36 on: April 01, 2020, 09:15:19 AM »
UConn strong finish this year, winning last 5, ended up tied for 3rd place in AAC.

Four of those five wins against teams rated worse than 100 in the Ken Pomeroy system (one worse than 200).  Only good win in those five against Houston at home.
“No one is more hated than he who speaks the truth.”
— Plato

 

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