MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: lawdog77 on March 23, 2020, 08:05:42 AM

Title: If there is a next season
Post by: lawdog77 on March 23, 2020, 08:05:42 AM
Big East is going to be tough at the top

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28936673/villanova-tops-college-basketball-way-too-early-top-25-2020-21 (https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28936673/villanova-tops-college-basketball-way-too-early-top-25-2020-21)
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: WhiteTrash on March 23, 2020, 09:57:41 AM
Yes indeed but the Big East is always tough. I think realistically we are 7-9 place next year. NIT bubble. 
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: brewcity77 on March 23, 2020, 10:06:17 AM
Three Man Weave also had Nova & Creighton 1/2. Gonna be tough at the top.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: Its DJOver on March 23, 2020, 10:55:16 AM
Stacked at the top no doubt, but what kind of depth will there be?

SH loses Powell, McKnight, and Gill.  PC loses Diallo, Holt, Pipkins, Watson, White and Young.  Butler is down Baddley, Baldwin, and McDermott.  X loses Goodin, and Jones, and both Marshall and Scruggs have already declared for the NBA once.   We obviously lose a lot.  Who's the third best team in the conference next year?
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: SaveOD238 on March 23, 2020, 11:45:47 AM
Stacked at the top no doubt, but what kind of depth will there be?

SH loses Powell, McKnight, and Gill.  PC loses Diallo, Holt, Pipkins, Watson, White and Young.  Butler is down Baddley, Baldwin, and McDermott.  X loses Goodin, and Jones, and both Marshall and Scruggs have already declared for the NBA once.   We obviously lose a lot.  Who's the third best team in the conference next year?

Quite possibly DePaul.  If Reed comes back and Coleman-Lands gets his waiver granted, they're definitely #3.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: panda on March 23, 2020, 11:53:41 AM
UConn will be very good next year too.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: brewcity77 on March 23, 2020, 12:11:52 PM
Quite possibly DePaul.  If Reed comes back and Coleman-Lands gets his waiver granted, they're definitely #3.

If someone rises from the bottom, I think it's St John's. They return 5/6 top scorers and were already proving they could play without Heron. Stylistically no one plays like them and they present a lot of matchup problems.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: Billy Hoyle on March 23, 2020, 12:56:53 PM
If someone rises from the bottom, I think it's St John's. They return 5/6 top scorers and were already proving they could play without Heron. Stylistically no one plays like them and they present a lot of matchup problems.

They have a true PG in Posh Alexander coming in too that will make them better offensively. They still need more consistency from beyond the arc.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on March 23, 2020, 01:00:02 PM
If someone rises from the bottom, I think it's St John's. They return 5/6 top scorers and were already proving they could play without Heron. Stylistically no one plays like them and they present a lot of matchup problems.

Plus Mike Anderson is a very good coach
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: Eye on March 24, 2020, 08:30:14 AM
Agree with Panda. Think UConn will be 3rd best team in BE next year.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: bilsu on March 27, 2020, 11:49:52 AM
Would it be wise for the NCAA to move the season up? Start games maybe October 15th, so the tournaments could start three weeks earlier.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: The Sultan of Semantics on March 27, 2020, 12:10:56 PM
Would it be wise for the NCAA to move the season up? Start games maybe October 15th, so the tournaments could start three weeks earlier.


I don't understand the logic of this.

But anyway, I think schools need to be looking at the revenue implications of what a shortened season, or a season without fans in the stands, looks like.  I think people are by and large going to be able to go on about their business in a few weeks, but the prohibition against large crowds could last until a vaccine becomes widely available. 
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 27, 2020, 12:39:16 PM
Would it be wise for the NCAA to move the season up? Start games maybe October 15th, so the tournaments could start three weeks earlier.

And compete with baseball playoffs? Nah brah
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: wadesworld on March 27, 2020, 01:41:34 PM

I don't understand the logic of this.

But anyway, I think schools need to be looking at the revenue implications of what a shortened season, or a season without fans in the stands, looks like.  I think people are by and large going to be able to go on about their business in a few weeks, but the prohibition against large crowds could last until a vaccine becomes widely available.

The only reason I can think of is if this virus has a season like the flu does, and we don’t have a vaccine by next year’s season.

Just curious, do you have a more optimistic outlook about this than you did last week? This seems more optimistic than you seemed earlier. I haven’t been keeping up with the covid-19 threads so you may have explained there.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: The Sultan of Semantics on March 27, 2020, 01:51:22 PM
The only reason I can think of is if this virus has a season like the flu does, and we don’t have a vaccine by next year’s season.

Just curious, do you have a more optimistic outlook about this than you did last week? This seems more optimistic than you seemed earlier. I haven’t been keeping up with the covid-19 threads so you may have explained there.


My comment last week was mostly flippant.

I actually think there is a pretty decent chance that we have games without crowds (NBA and NHL playoffs, MLB season) for a few weeks.  And that depending on how things are going can even envision a college football and NFL season kicking off without crowds.

If this turns out to be an accurate article, the implications are pretty huge.  Can you see any sporting events with large crowds happening if ithis is accurate?  If it takes longer than a year, the college basketball season may be most definitely impacted.

https://www.si.com/soccer/2020/03/25/atalanta-valencia-coronavirus-champions-league-san-siro-milan-italy?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=si-soccer&xid=socialflow_twitter_si

The revenue implications are enormous.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: wadesworld on March 27, 2020, 01:52:45 PM

My comment last week was mostly flippant.

I actually think there is a pretty decent chance that we have games without crowds (NBA and NHL playoffs, MLB season) for a few weeks.  And that depending on how things are going can even envision a college football and NFL season kicking off without crowds.

If this turns out to be an accurate article, the implications are pretty huge.

https://www.si.com/soccer/2020/03/25/atalanta-valencia-coronavirus-champions-league-san-siro-milan-italy?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=si-soccer&xid=socialflow_twitter_si

Yeah I saw that article yesterday. Wild/sad/scary.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: IrwinFletcher on March 27, 2020, 03:27:03 PM

My comment last week was mostly flippant.

I actually think there is a pretty decent chance that we have games without crowds (NBA and NHL playoffs, MLB season) for a few weeks.  And that depending on how things are going can even envision a college football and NFL season kicking off without crowds.

If this turns out to be an accurate article, the implications are pretty huge.  Can you see any sporting events with large crowds happening if ithis is accurate?  If it takes longer than a year, the college basketball season may be most definitely impacted.

https://www.si.com/soccer/2020/03/25/atalanta-valencia-coronavirus-champions-league-san-siro-milan-italy?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=si-soccer&xid=socialflow_twitter_si

The revenue implications are enormous.

Which is why New Orleans is blowing up right now (Mardi Gras) and I am holding my breath on Chicago.  March 14 was when everyone went out and celebrated St. Patricks Day.  Though all parades were cancelled, all the bars were open and jammed packed.  We are 13 days removed from that, so we will see if there is a huge spike in the next handful of days.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: Galway Eagle on March 27, 2020, 03:30:56 PM
Which is why New Orleans is blowing up right now (Mardi Gras) and I am holding my breath on Chicago.  March 14 was when everyone went out and celebrated St. Patricks Day.  Though all parades were cancelled, all the bars were open and jammed packed.  We are 13 days removed from that, so we will see if there is a huge spike in the next handful of days.

All the bars were not jam packed. Wrigleyville and river north was. I bagpiped at two bars (a huge decrease from my usual route before people yell at me), one was a ghost town, the other had less than half the crowd it usually would. 1 more day of incubation till that fallout should be over.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: bilsu on March 28, 2020, 04:51:40 PM

I don't understand the logic of this.

But anyway, I think schools need to be looking at the revenue implications of what a shortened season, or a season without fans in the stands, looks like.  I think people are by and large going to be able to go on about their business in a few weeks, but the prohibition against large crowds could last until a vaccine becomes widely available.
The a mutated version of the virus is likely to return next year. The mutated version could be weaker or stronger. Vaccines are based on the current virus and are only effective, if the virus does not mutate too much.

I believe a virus will return next year in the same time frame. Moving the season up might allow us to get the tournament season in before it takes over our country again. You also could limit the non-conference games, and have the conference games start December 1st. That would move the postseason up 4 weeks without stating earlier.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: The Sultan of Semantics on March 28, 2020, 04:59:19 PM
The a mutated version of the virus is likely to return next year. The mutated version could be weaker or stronger. Vaccines are based on the current virus and are only effective, if the virus does not mutate too much.

I believe a virus will return next year in the same time frame. Moving the season up might allow us to get the tournament season in before it takes over our country again. You also could limit the non-conference games, and have the conference games start December 1st. That would move the postseason up 4 weeks without stating earlier.


If your scenario turns out to be accurate, then the games shouldn't be played with crowds at all.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: forgetful on March 28, 2020, 05:12:00 PM
The a mutated version of the virus is likely to return next year. The mutated version could be weaker or stronger. Vaccines are based on the current virus and are only effective, if the virus does not mutate too much.

I believe a virus will return next year in the same time frame. Moving the season up might allow us to get the tournament season in before it takes over our country again. You also could limit the non-conference games, and have the conference games start December 1st. That would move the postseason up 4 weeks without stating earlier.

Coronavirus's don't mutate that rapidly. The bigger issue is likely to be two things.

1. We don't have that much herd immunity yet (hopefully we don't have 100M+ being infected by then). If that is the case, we do have another corona-season starting around september/October, depending on where in the US you live.

2. Immunity is not that long lived. There is precedence for this in coronaviruses, and China is seeing that 10% of people that recovered, have symptoms and test positive again after a month. This would lead to recirculation again. The question is, how long does some immunity last, and does enough immunity last so that it isn't very deadly. If not, we aren't having a season next year.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: dgies9156 on March 29, 2020, 05:07:55 PM
I think many of the naysayers are writing us off before recruiting is complete and before we have finished with our roster. Let’s give the coaches a chance to do their thing before we write the team off for next year.

Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: WhiteTrash on March 29, 2020, 10:00:37 PM
I think many of the naysayers are writing us off before recruiting is complete and before we have finished with our roster. Let’s give the coaches a chance to do their thing before we write the team off for next year.
Agreed but as presently constructed any expectations above .500 is asking way too much of the team. We owe are guys realistic expectations. We'll have young talent that shouldn't be penalized for the team that they are coming into.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: D'Lo Brown on March 30, 2020, 01:04:07 AM
The a mutated version of the virus is likely to return next year. The mutated version could be weaker or stronger. Vaccines are based on the current virus and are only effective, if the virus does not mutate too much.

I believe a virus will return next year in the same time frame. Moving the season up might allow us to get the tournament season in before it takes over our country again. You also could limit the non-conference games, and have the conference games start December 1st. That would move the postseason up 4 weeks without stating earlier.

The coronavirus samples all over the world are highly conserved with extremely minor differences compared to most viruses.

The implications are that once a coronavirus vaccine is developed, it almost certainly won't be akin to the flu where you'll need to make predictions of mutations. The vaccine should just work like childhood vaccines we already take. And it should work for all coronaviruses.

Of course this brings into question why we didn't take SARS & MERS more seriously - for an incalculable fraction of the cost we could have already had a vaccine developed.

To keep this on sports - your scenario is pretty doomsday. The same virus will be around next year because we probably won't have a vaccine widely distributed yet. It's tough to predict the amount of herd immunity we'll have by then because it depends on how good/bad we respond now. Technically if we stay awful & sacrifice people now, we could gain enough herd immunity quickly to get our basketball back, based on herd immunity alone.

The other scenario to take into consideration is that treatments are going to be distributed much more quickly & will dramatically decrease the serious consequences. So even if we don't have a vaccine by next season, getting coronavirus might not be seen as quite as scary. (remember, getting basketball back is really about public opinion)

I could be wrong on that. But I think that several factors (herd immunity, but especially treatments) give us a somewhat good chance to have a regular basketball season.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: brewcity77 on March 30, 2020, 05:47:51 AM
The problem with herd immunity is the number of deaths it would require. If we set herd immunity as 60% of the population, that's about 196,200,000 immune Americans. Which would be great. But at a 2.7% fatality rate (probably a low end estimate) that would require over 5,567,000 deaths.

Are we willing to kill 5.5 million people to get sports back sooner? I guess since we're well ahead of Italy and every other nation in terms of growth, we as a nation must be willing to find out.

And I'm not saying 5.5 million will die, just that herd immunity likely won't work in this case because getting there will take an obscene number of lives. To get herd immunity, we would need a vaccine first. That would allow us to build a herd without full infection and mortality rate that comes with it.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: nyg on March 30, 2020, 06:49:28 AM
The problem with herd immunity is the number of deaths it would require. If we set herd immunity as 60% of the population, that's about 196,200,000 immune Americans. Which would be great. But at a 2.7% fatality rate (probably a low end estimate) that would require over 5,567,000 deaths.

Are we willing to kill 5.5 million people to get sports back sooner? I guess since we're well ahead of Italy and every other nation in terms of growth, we as a nation must be willing to find out.

And I'm not saying 5.5 million will die, just that herd immunity likely won't work in this case because getting there will take an obscene number of lives. To get herd immunity, we would need a vaccine first. That would allow us to build a herd without full infection and mortality rate that comes with it.

When will you feel comfortable/going to sitting at a restaurant table with people at a table next to you?
When will you feel comfortable/going to a football, basketball, hockey, baseball game with people next to you?
When will you feel comfortable going to a movie theater, play, concert with people seated next to you?
The same with church, casinos, and all congregations of people. 

The above are just simple questions that were recently asked by a local news station to citizens and discussed by a panel.  The results were amazing in that 86% of the the individuals asked said no, not comfortable and would not do it. The only way they would, is if a vaccine, that proved to work, was available. 

They went on and discussed how sporting venues, movies, theaters, etc. might have to sell tickets with empty seats in each direction of where you bought your tickets, resulting in a 25% capacity.

This is a real mess and will not end soon.  Your comments are a vaccine are correct, but it must prove to be effective first, gain the mental/physical approval of citizens, before any sporting event is attended by fans. 

How would you answer the above questions?  Myself, no until some vaccine.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: The Sultan of Semantics on March 30, 2020, 07:51:49 AM
When will you feel comfortable/going to sitting at a restaurant table with people at a table next to you?
When will you feel comfortable/going to a football, basketball, hockey, baseball game with people next to you?
When will you feel comfortable going to a movie theater, play, concert with people seated next to you?
The same with church, casinos, and all congregations of people. 

The above are just simple questions that were recently asked by a local news station to citizens and discussed by a panel.  The results were amazing in that 86% of the the individuals asked said no, not comfortable and would not do it. The only way they would, is if a vaccine, that proved to work, was available. 

They went on and discussed how sporting venues, movies, theaters, etc. might have to sell tickets with empty seats in each direction of where you bought your tickets, resulting in a 25% capacity.

This is a real mess and will not end soon.  Your comments are a vaccine are correct, but it must prove to be effective first, gain the mental/physical approval of citizens, before any sporting event is attended by fans. 

How would you answer the above questions?  Myself, no until some vaccine.


Some of this is a recency bias.

To answer your questions, I would be fine at a restaurant.  I may even be fine at a large outdoor event with proper distancing. 

But I think you are correct that the chances of having large crowds at sporting events, concerts, etc. by this fall are getting slimmer and slimmer. 
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: IrwinFletcher on March 30, 2020, 07:54:43 AM
When will you feel comfortable/going to sitting at a restaurant table with people at a table next to you?
When will you feel comfortable/going to a football, basketball, hockey, baseball game with people next to you?
When will you feel comfortable going to a movie theater, play, concert with people seated next to you?
The same with church, casinos, and all congregations of people. 

The above are just simple questions that were recently asked by a local news station to citizens and discussed by a panel.  The results were amazing in that 86% of the the individuals asked said no, not comfortable and would not do it. The only way they would, is if a vaccine, that proved to work, was available. 

They went on and discussed how sporting venues, movies, theaters, etc. might have to sell tickets with empty seats in each direction of where you bought your tickets, resulting in a 25% capacity.

This is a real mess and will not end soon.  Your comments are a vaccine are correct, but it must prove to be effective first, gain the mental/physical approval of citizens, before any sporting event is attended by fans. 

How would you answer the above questions?  Myself, no until some vaccine.

People answer that way because they are frightened.  If people start going out to these venues and there is no signs of an uptick is sickness, then others will follow suit.  Those 86% may not be the first ones to go out when the all clear signs go out, but slowly, many will start to follow suit.  We can't stay couped up for 12-24 months.  If the medical professionals say it is OK, we will all start to come out and live our lives once again.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: wiscwarrior on March 30, 2020, 08:36:53 AM
What percentage of major sports revenues are generated by game attendance as opposed to broadcast contracts?
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: Lennys Tap on March 30, 2020, 10:05:51 AM
The problem with herd immunity is the number of deaths it would require. If we set herd immunity as 60% of the population, that's about 196,200,000 immune Americans. Which would be great. But at a 2.7% fatality rate (probably a low end estimate) that would require over 5,567,000 deaths.

Are we willing to kill 5.5 million people to get sports back sooner? I guess since we're well ahead of Italy and every other nation in terms of growth, we as a nation must be willing to find out.

And I'm not saying 5.5 million will die, just that herd immunity likely won't work in this case because getting there will take an obscene number of lives. To get herd immunity, we would need a vaccine first. That would allow us to build a herd without full infection and mortality rate that comes with it.

Assuming a 2.7% fatality rate is the low end of the spectrum in th US is extremely pessimistic, even not accounting for the millions who will recover without ever knowing they were infected.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: cheese ball chaser on March 30, 2020, 10:11:12 AM
All the bars were not jam packed. Wrigleyville and river north was. I bagpiped at two bars (a huge decrease from my usual route before people yell at me), one was a ghost town, the other had less than half the crowd it usually would. 1 more day of incubation till that fallout should be over.

Shhhhh...that doesn't fit the anti-Chicago rhetoric of Scoop.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: brewcity77 on March 30, 2020, 11:20:05 AM
Assuming a 2.7% fatality rate is the low end of the spectrum in th US is extremely pessimistic, even not accounting for the millions who will recover without ever knowing they were infected.

So far, Italy has one of the highest fatality rates (between 7.2 & 10% estimated in the past week) and we're outpacing them in terms of growth. We don't want to be Italy.

That's why the distancing is important. To give us time to find a vaccine so we build herd immunity through the vaccine and not mass contraction.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: WhiteTrash on March 30, 2020, 01:24:54 PM
I really like all my fellow MU fans and MUScoop, but this is the absolute last place for medical/virus information. Let's get back to MU hoops and college basketball.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: geps on April 01, 2020, 07:02:03 AM
UConn will be very good next year too.

UConn strong finish this year, winning last 5, ended up tied for 3rd place in AAC.
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: WarriorDad on April 01, 2020, 09:08:22 AM
So far, Italy has one of the highest fatality rates (between 7.2 & 10% estimated in the past week) and we're outpacing them in terms of growth. We don't want to be Italy.

That's why the distancing is important. To give us time to find a vaccine so we build herd immunity through the vaccine and not mass contraction.

Dr. Fauci wrote this in New England Journal of Medicine this week

“[T]he case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%,” Fauci wrote in an article published in the New England Journal of Medicine on March 26. “This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: MU82 on April 01, 2020, 09:09:30 AM
There is an entire COVID-19 section over at the Superbar. Come on, folks!
Title: Re: If there is a next season
Post by: WarriorDad on April 01, 2020, 09:15:19 AM
UConn strong finish this year, winning last 5, ended up tied for 3rd place in AAC.

Four of those five wins against teams rated worse than 100 in the Ken Pomeroy system (one worse than 200).  Only good win in those five against Houston at home.