Life Altering Events

[GooooMarquette]

I was just a toddler when JFK was shot, so the most life-altering events I remember are the moon walk (and the space program generally), MU's National Championship (), 9/11 and this. Each one seemed like it would be impossible to top (for good or bad)...until the next one came along. And IMHO this is gonna be more life-altering by a country mile. At the very least, it will change how we deliver healthcare in the US, and will likely usher in transformative changes relative to employee benefits and income stability. And because someone is gonna have to pay for that, those things will likely have an impact on entitlement programs generally, including the sacred cow of Social Security. I have no idea how that all plays out, but I suspect fundamental changes to our healthcare and employment security and benefits systems are gonna be a lot more life-altering than having to go through metal detectors to get on a plane or into a basketball game.

[mu_hilltopper]

 
Military will step in before we allow mass rioting and looting..marshall law.

While that may occur .. that's mostly helpful with groups of people.   Imagine one or two, roaming a neighborhood with a gun, demanding food.  Military isn't going to be able to stop that.  Cops could, but imagine 20 groups doing that over a square mile.  Chaos.

[dgies9156]

The Only Thing We Have to Fear...  Is Fear Itself.
(Franklin Roosevelt, March 4, 1933)

We need to remember that as we deal with the current life altering event.

I don't doubt there are some hot spots and I don't doubt there are some folks particularly vulnerable, such as senior citizens and folks with weakened immune systems. But the longer we shut the country down; the longer we close public places (like parks and beaches); the longer we shut down factories, transport systems and so-called non-essential public services; and, the longer we bunker down in our homes, the more we will inflict long-term damage on ourselves.

The disease is a problem, no doubt. But shutting down the country in fear, hoarding toilet paper and acting like this is the Andromeda Strain will make this a long-term problem. Period.

[wadesworld]

The Only Thing We Have to Fear...  Is Fear Itself.
(Franklin Roosevelt, March 4, 1933)

We need to remember that as we deal with the current life altering event.

I don't doubt there are some hot spots and I don't doubt there are some folks particularly vulnerable, such as senior citizens and folks with weakened immune systems. But the longer we shut the country down; the longer we close public places (like parks and beaches); the longer we shut down factories, transport systems and so-called non-essential public services; and, the longer we bunker down in our homes, the more we will inflict long-term damage on ourselves.

The disease is a problem, no doubt. But shutting down the country in fear, hoarding toilet paper and acting like this is the Andromeda Strain will make this a long-term problem. Period.

Yeah I don’t think so. It’s been working in other parts of the country. Now we have to see if it continues to work as they open things back up.

[Lennys Tap]

Back to guns ..

I think the probability of a Great Depression is far north of zero. 

Topper

What does “far north of zero” mean to you? 5%? 20%? 40%? Honest question.

[mu_hilltopper]

Topper

What does “far north of zero” mean to you? 5%? 20%? 40%? Honest question.

My guess?  75%.   I am completely petrified of a 15-20% unemployment rate, plus a global recession.

The only thing that saves us is federal action, and .. I'm just not confident in the people running any of that, top to bottom.  Even in the best of times an A team would struggle.  We're far from that level of competence.

[Hards Alumni]

While that may occur .. that's mostly helpful with groups of people.   Imagine one or two, roaming a neighborhood with a gun, demanding food.  Military isn't going to be able to stop that.  Cops could, but imagine 20 groups doing that over a square mile.  Chaos.

Or (worst case scenario here folks) Cops realizing that they have the power to do that sort of thing to take care of themselves and their families first.

[Hards Alumni]

The Only Thing We Have to Fear...  Is Fear Itself.
(Franklin Roosevelt, March 4, 1933)

We need to remember that as we deal with the current life altering event.

I don't doubt there are some hot spots and I don't doubt there are some folks particularly vulnerable, such as senior citizens and folks with weakened immune systems. But the longer we shut the country down; the longer we close public places (like parks and beaches); the longer we shut down factories, transport systems and so-called non-essential public services; and, the longer we bunker down in our homes, the more we will inflict long-term damage on ourselves.

The disease is a problem, no doubt. But shutting down the country in fear, hoarding toilet paper and acting like this is the Andromeda Strain will make this a long-term problem. Period.

Hi welcome to two months ago with that hot take.

[Lennys Tap]

My guess?  75%.   I am completely petrified of a 15-20% unemployment rate, plus a global recession.

The only thing that saves us is federal action, and .. I'm just not confident in the people running any of that, top to bottom.  Even in the best of times an A team would struggle.  We're far from that level of competence.

I think your pessimism is way over the top. But if you’re right the long run most humane strategy is perhaps isolating the old folks (like me) as much as is humanly possible and getting the rest of the country back to work as soon as possible.

[Lennys Tap]

While that may occur .. that's mostly helpful with groups of people.   Imagine one or two, roaming a neighborhood with a gun, demanding food.  Military isn't going to be able to stop that.  Cops could, but imagine 20 groups doing that over a square mile.  Chaos.

You have a very fertile imagination.

[Hards Alumni]

I think your pessimism is way over the top. But if you’re right the long run most humane strategy is perhaps isolating the old folks (like me) as much as is humanly possible and getting the rest of the country back to work as soon as possible.

But that is already the strategy.  We're just not serious about it.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I'm not sure if this will be life altering like 9/11 was.

Though this may lead to openings such as basic income and universal healthcare.

I sure as hell hope so. It would be the rational response to a wake up call like this. Unfortunately U.S. politics never seem close to rational.

[mu03eng]

JFC guys, things are bad but we will all get through it. This is much more likely to bring the country together than it is to tear it apart. Turn off the news, put down the phone, go for a walk, talk to neighbors at a healthy distance. The terrible  times will be short lived, the bad times will last somewhat longer but we're going to come through this better.....just f'ing breathe

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

JFC guys, things are bad but we will all get through it. This is much more likely to bring the country together than it is to tear it apart.

I doubt it.  This is going to amplify the inequities that exist on our society on a number of levels.

[Lennys Tap]

JFC guys, things are bad but we will all get through it. This is much more likely to bring the country together than it is to tear it apart. Turn off the news, put down the phone, go for a walk, talk to neighbors at a healthy distance. The terrible  times will be short lived, the bad times will last somewhat longer but we're going to come through this better.....just f'ing breathe

Well said, Eng.

[mu_hilltopper]

I am doing all those things, taking walks, playing games, cleaning up.  I do limit my news time because, lord, it's awful and getting worse.

I very much hope against hope you are right. 

[jesmu84]

https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1241446035190358018?s=19

We're going to bail every industry out. And individuals are going to suffer.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1241446035190358018?s=19

We're going to bail every industry out. And individuals are going to suffer.

Yeah this sh*t ain’t making people “come together.”

[Buzzed]

Off the top of my head in no order: fall of USSR, creation of EU, NAFTA, 9/11, great recession

In my opinion this does not even hold a candle to 9/11.  Literally everything changed.  While we went back to school military recruiters showed up every day.
The war on terror still continues to this day and is the longest war in US history. Created Homeland security, changed immigration, Patriot act, increased surveillance and loss of civil liberties.  Think about how travelling and entering sporting events have changed.  Real ID which is almost finally rolled out was because of 9/11.  9/11 was also supposed to prepare us for anthrax and bio terrorism, which apparently we forgot for this pandemic.

This is a big country and different parts will be impacted more than others.  Washington state that was basically the start of the outbreak only closed bars and restaurants last Monday and still does not have a shelter in place.  It will be interesting to see the case studies on which areas took the most effective actions.  As a whole the country will be fine.

[4everwarriors]

JFC guys, things are bad but we will all get through it. This is much more likely to bring the country together than it is to tear it apart. Turn off the news, put down the phone, go for a walk, talk to neighbors at a healthy distance. The terrible  times will be short lived, the bad times will last somewhat longer but we're going to come through this better.....just f'ing breathe

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Off the top of my head in no order: fall of USSR, creation of EU, NAFTA, 9/11, great recession

In my opinion this does not even hold a candle to 9/11.  Literally everything changed. 

Literally very little changed.  Most people's lives were no different a month later.

[Buzzed]

Literally very little changed.  Most people's lives were no different a month later.

Let me know in a month if most people's lives are different.  I don't they will be impacted 20 years later like 9/11.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Let me know in a month if most people's lives are different.  I don't they will be impacted 20 years later like 9/11.

I will.

And outside of taking off my shoes at the airport, 9/11 isn't impacting my life very much right now. 

[mu03eng]

I don't mean this in a pejorative sense, but if you are in the "government should save us" crowd, I can see why you are panicked. Governments generally and our government specifically is not designed to solve problems fast or efficiently. Regardless of the orange dope in office, a federal response was going to be slow. Companies, individuals, local governments are all going to be faster and more agile than federal government bureaucracy.

I work in the manufacturing sector, starting the week before and really ramping up this past week, manufacturing pivoted. Medical suppliers went into 24x7 operation (GEHC is going to make 6000 ventilators in the next 4 weeks at one plant alone),  PPE production capacity has tripled in a week, and other necessary supplies and capacity is expanding. The food supply chain is stable as is the public infrastructure, so any shortages are only because of panic hoarding that is unnecessary. We are going to flatten the curve(perhaps not as fast as we'd like) but we will also double our critical healthcare capacity in 4-6 weeks(Italy definitely can't do that). Further jobs will be evolving, Amazon is expanding as are critical manufacturing, there will be hardships no doubt but all is not lost in the short term.

Long term, this event will turn over political leadership....national leaders too long in the tooth with fail, others will step into the breach and work the problem. The working class will recognize its power to control it's own fate. Manufacturing will recognize the need to shorten and diversify the supply chain meaning some manufacturing jobs will come back. There will be the destruction of small businesses and lost eateries, etc but others will rise to replace them. There will be consolidation in business but there will be expansion as new business models replace old. Some will lose in the change, some will tread water, some will win....but we will survive. Anti-Virals will be developed as will vaccines. Treatment protocols will be available within 6 months that will save people otherwise lost now. Additionally we will very likely choice to(or have to) withdraw from our imperial adventures abroad....we will step back from Afghanistan and Iraq amongst others, reducing our military expenditure at a critical moment when we need to focus at home, largely because we can.

Yes income inequality and the "unfairness" of the system will evolve but huge paradigm shifting events like this have a way of repressing the balance.

The next 6 to 18 months will be difficult at times but I have zero doubt we'll come out better than we went in.

[Jockey]

Back to guns ..

I think the probability of a Great Depression is far north of zero.  And when you look around and think of what industries are non-essential, just convenience/luxury .. the list is incredibly long.   It's going to take years to get so many industries back to pre-Covid levels, and maybe never.

So .. great depression .. massive unemployment .. food lines .. the 80% of the US who have zero savings and get hungry could lead to massive civil unrest.  And guess what, lots of people are armed.

I've never owned a firearm, but I don't know how far civilization will break down in that scenario.

They're only buying all of the guns to protect themselves.



U.S Constitution:

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2nd Amendment

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