Top of the Food Chain

[skianth16]

I have no faith that MU could hire a coach with division one success.

MU absolutely could. It's a matter of whether they're willing to do it.

I've got to think that there are tons of mid-major coaches that would love to have a shot to move into the Big East. A guy like John Becker at Vermont who has been super successful for a long stretch makes sense to me. Or maybe we give Matt McMahon from Murray State a look, assuming we can get over the hard feelings from last March. Casey Alexander from Belmont is interesting too. He did well at Lipscomb the last few years and is now having a strong first year as the HC at Belmont, where he was a long-time assistant.

Heck, what about Mark Pope at BYU, Anthony Grant from Dayton, or Ben Jacobs at UNI. They're all having great seasons this year, but they're not in top tier destinations.

These are the kinds of coaches I'd be excited to get. And I don't see why it would be hard for us to lure these guys away from their current positions. The money, the conference, the facilities, the recruiting power... it would all be a big step up. Seems like a win-win to me.

[JWags85]

MU absolutely could. It's a matter of whether they're willing to do it.

I've got to think that there are tons of mid-major coaches that would love to have a shot to move into the Big East. A guy like John Becker at Vermont who has been super successful for a long stretch makes sense to me. Or maybe we give Matt McMahon from Murray State a look, assuming we can get over the hard feelings from last March. Casey Alexander from Belmont is interesting too. He did well at Lipscomb the last few years and is now having a strong first year as the HC at Belmont, where he was a long-time assistant.

Heck, what about Mark Pope at BYU, Anthony Grant from Dayton, or Ben Jacobs at UNI. They're all having great seasons this year, but they're not in top tier destinations.

These are the kinds of coaches I'd be excited to get. And I don't see why it would be hard for us to lure these guys away from their current positions. The money, the conference, the facilities, the recruiting power... it would all be a big step up. Seems like a win-win to me.

Like where your head is at, absent the last 3.  Pope needs some time, Ben Jacobson has had MANY opportunities to leave UNI and I think he may be a lifer.  He's got a comfortable salary, tons of security, and has been on the bench there 20 years, and all the true success of the program has been under him.  I think Anthony Grant is also a guy who is better at the mid major level.  And gotta see what he does post-Toppin cause his time at Bama was uninspiring.

Ive spoken my mind about Becker, I wouldn't prefer a low-major guy in his mid 50s who has never been at a high level, period.  But Alexander and Matt McMahon would be on my list with Wes Miller and maybe Steve Forbes

[mu03eng]

Hmmm, okay so you're calling me a liar..I'm telling you they CAN pay $4-5 million a year for a Coach. Of course this wouldn't be for a guy like Wojo, this would be for a guy that has proven experience at the high major level.

Not calling you a liar, simply saying you are either intentionally or unintentionally ignorant of the economic factors at play. Your single choice (fire Wojo and hire away a well established HC) generates the following expenses:
-Pay Wojo's buyout (we don't know what it is but it ain't small)
-Acquire a new HC at 2x of our current salary level
-Likely have to fund some of the buyout from said HC's current school

The first and third items are one time expenses but they are big and the second is a substantial recurring expense. All of this while the demographic shift for universities generally and private universities specifically is forcing schools to really look at expenses and cut where possible. Unless your suggestion is going to bring in 3x current revenue (donations + ticket sales) it makes zero sense. Might as well sell tickets to the money burning party, it would be as profitable.

Bottom line, if you look at the metrics that matter to MU, the Wojo era has little to no decrease from the Buzz era so there is zero incentive to further ramp up our spending on basketball.

[mu03eng]

NM

[The Sultan]

The fact is that Marquette needs athletics to not only be self-sustaining (with revenues coming from a small student fee, gifts, sponsorships and ticket revenue), but they need men's basketball to cover the deficits created by the other athletic programs. 

So could Marquette pay a $5 million salary?  Sure.  I mean, its possible.

But is Marquette going to pay a $5 million salary AND create a deficit that would need to be covered by income such as tuition?  Which will likely mean cuts elsewhere?

Very doubtful.  Donor(s) would need to step up big time to cover that cost on an annual basis.  And with all the needs the campus has, I just don't see it happening.

[skianth16]

Not calling you a liar, simply saying you are either intentionally or unintentionally ignorant of the economic factors at play. Your single choice (fire Wojo and hire away a well established HC) generates the following expenses:
-Pay Wojo's buyout (we don't know what it is but it ain't small)
-Acquire a new HC at 2x of our current salary level
-Likely have to fund some of the buyout from said HC's current school

The first and third items are one time expenses but they are big and the second is a substantial recurring expense. All of this while the demographic shift for universities generally and private universities specifically is forcing schools to really look at expenses and cut where possible. Unless your suggestion is going to bring in 3x current revenue (donations + ticket sales) it makes zero sense. Might as well sell tickets to the money burning party, it would be as profitable.

Bottom line, if you look at the metrics that matter to MU, the Wojo era has little to no decrease from the Buzz era so there is zero incentive to further ramp up our spending on basketball.

Paying the new head coach 2x or 3x the current head coach's salary does not double or triple all basketball expenses. Not even close. If we pay the new head coach 2 million more than Wojo, all we need to do to break even is increase revenue by 2 million or reduce some expenses. For the buy outs, I assume most programs would just accept higher costs for a year, knowing that it's in the best interest in the long run. Do what you can to offset as much as you can for that year, then take your bath and move on.

No matter the scenario, there is no need to double or triple revenue. That's just hyperbole trying to make it seem impossible to move on from Wojo.

[skianth16]

To follow up my last post, there's this forced Catch 22 coming from a lot of people that keep popping up in the discussion of what happens if we move on from Wojo. We've heard from many scoopers that it's the norm in college basketball to extend contracts beyond the next couple years to give recruits assurance that the coach will be around. And then we also hear that a buyout for Wojo and potentially the next coach would be a huge financial hurdle, nearly impossible to consider.

So in this view, where coaches should expect extensions and buyout clauses that schools will struggle to pay, how does a school ever pull the trigger and move on from the current coach?

[mu03eng]

Paying the new head coach 2x or 3x the current head coach's salary does not double or triple all basketball expenses. Not even close. If we pay the new head coach 2 million more than Wojo, all we need to do to break even is increase revenue by 2 million or reduce some expenses. For the buy outs, I assume most programs would just accept higher costs for a year, knowing that it's in the best interest in the long run. Do what you can to offset as much as you can for that year, then take your bath and move on.

No matter the scenario, there is no need to double or triple revenue. That's just hyperbole trying to make it seem impossible to move on from Wojo.

I see, yes absolutely multi-million dollar organizations often just except large one time expenses with little to no increase in revenue...I had forgotten about that class in business school....good call.

It's not meant to say it's impossible to move on from Wojo....it's meant to say it's stupid to move on from Wojo AND double our coaching expenses when it is unlikely to substantially change our revenue.

Let's do some basic math here, let's assume it's $8M in buyouts(some combination of Wojo and new coach buyouts) which I think is a conservative number. Let's also assume that they spread the buyouts over 4 years, so $2M a year in additional expense. Let's also assume a $3M annual salary from this super coach Guru wants, which is a rough doubling of our current salary. Let's use $17.5M for our annual basketball revenue this year (see link below) and $4.3M for our expenses.......that's a "profit" margin of roughly 75%. If our expenses go up by $3.5M (amortized buyout plus added coach salary) to maintain the same profit margin on $7.8M in expenses our revenue would have to be $31.2M. That's what we have to do to stay neutral, so yeah I better see a 2 or 3x revenue projection before I'm making a move like that.

And yes, we could have donors step up to pay buyouts and/or supplement salaries.....but what other things is MU not able to do because those monies are going to fund Guru's fever dream? MU is in the midst of a campaign to fund a new B-school and further expand the Engineer School + Innovation Alley. What do we put on hold because we hope that paying a more established coach will result in an avalanche of tournament success and national championships.

I'm fine with getting rid of Wojo, but we better recognize that when we do that he is going to be replaced at the same or lower salary.

https://www.businessinsider.com/louisville-was-college-basketballs-biggest-money-maker-in-2016-2018-2#8-university-of-north-carolina-21408475-18

[skianth16]

mueng - I'd be very surprised if our athletic department functioned like a publicly traded company and demanded that we maintain margins year over year when making big decisions like this. As a non-profit, I would guess the goal would be to focus more on break-even views, rather than margin-focused views. (If anyone has insights into how this is managed, I'm curious to know more on this).

Or looking at more of an NPV kind of view, you don't need to double your revenues in Year 1 to make the decision worthwhile. A coaching change could re-engage a portion of the restless fanbase, driving incremental revenue in future years. It doesn't need to happen all at once like you're suggesting.

In the scenario you're suggesting, where schools only make the change when they can maintain profit margin, no school would ever pay the buyout. It would be impossible to maintain margins for nearly all the buyout values I've seen. Coaching changes would never happen outside of end of contract situations or the coach violating a clause in their contract.

Edit - I would add to this that schools would be hard pressed to ever offer a raise to their coaches in your margin-focused view. Wasn't Wojo making about $1-$1.2 million a few years ago? And now he's up to $1.7 I think. Did MU assume a need to increase revenue by 20% when he got a raise? I just don't see your view playing out in the MU AD.

[Litehouse]

Or looking at more of an NPV kind of view, you don't need to double your revenues in Year 1 to make the decision worthwhile. A coaching change could re-engage a portion of the restless fanbase, driving incremental revenue in future years. It doesn't need to happen all at once like you're suggesting.

How much of the fanbase is really restless?  We just finished in the top 15 in attendance and sold out our last home game.  We have a lot of Nojos shouting and screaming on Scoop, but in my experience those usually aren't the big donor types.  I have no idea how the big donors feel about Wojo, but my guess is they're more rational than the Nojos on here.  Maybe things change for season-ticket renewals next year, but that depends how the rest of the season goes.  If we win an NCAA tournament game I don't think there's going to be much restlessness.

On the profit margins, we need that additional revenue to run the rest of our athletic department, so it probably is a break-even situation.

[MU Buff]

Yikes, my mistake. Not sure why I thought it was 1.4 million. According to the form 990 submitted in 2019 Wojo made ~2.2 million the previous year.

https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/display_990/390806251/08_2019_prefixes_38-42%2F390806251_201806_990_2019083016611745

asdfasdf found this earlier in the thread. Maybe his base salary was $1.7 million but his total compensation was $2.2 million

[skianth16]

How much of the fanbase is really restless?  We just finished in the top 15 in attendance and sold out our last home game.  We have a lot of Nojos shouting and screaming on Scoop, but in my experience those usually aren't the big donor types.  I have no idea how the big donors feel about Wojo, but my guess is they're more rational than the Nojos on here.  Maybe things change for season-ticket renewals next year, but that depends how the rest of the season goes.  If we win an NCAA tournament game I don't think there's going to be much restlessness.

On the profit margins, we need that additional revenue to run the rest of our athletic department, so it probably is a break-even situation.

Completely fair question to ask, and it's hard to truly tell. My view is that attendance rankings probably don't tell the whole story since we play in a bigger stadium than most schools. Attendance change from one year to the next for MU would help clarify more. Or maybe season tickets sold from one year to the next. I'm sure there are metrics the athletic dept tracks that would give more clarity here.

I will say that most of the comments I've seen online this season outside of Scoop, and the conversations I hear among fans at Fiserv are more negative than positive when it comes to Wojo. Obviously, that's a very small sample of the overall fanbase, and there's some confirmation bias on my part in there too. But the complaints seem noticeable in the last 15 months than I can remember since '05 when I first started following the team.

[mu03eng]

mueng - I'd be very surprised if our athletic department functioned like a publicly traded company and demanded that we maintain margins year over year when making big decisions like this. As a non-profit, I would guess the goal would be to focus more on break-even views, rather than margin-focused views. (If anyone has insights into how this is managed, I'm curious to know more on this).

Or looking at more of an NPV kind of view, you don't need to double your revenues in Year 1 to make the decision worthwhile. A coaching change could re-engage a portion of the restless fanbase, driving incremental revenue in future years. It doesn't need to happen all at once like you're suggesting.

In the scenario you're suggesting, where schools only make the change when they can maintain profit margin, no school would ever pay the buyout. It would be impossible to maintain margins for nearly all the buyout values I've seen. Coaching changes would never happen outside of end of contract situations or the coach violating a clause in their contract.

Edit - I would add to this that schools would be hard pressed to ever offer a raise to their coaches in your margin-focused view. Wasn't Wojo making about $1-$1.2 million a few years ago? And now he's up to $1.7 I think. Did MU assume a need to increase revenue by 20% when he got a raise? I just don't see your view playing out in the MU AD.

The basketball margin pays for the rest of the athletic department funding (by and large) so even if you don't assume similar profit margins and want to break even.....any such more has to generate roughly $3.5M a year in the first four years using my example....that means 20% increase in revenue in the next four years. You aren't going to get that when MU is already in the top 15 in attendance. Maybe there are big donors out there that aren't investing because of Wojo that flips this equation on it's head but I'm highly highly doubtful there is a significant pool of donor money waiting to be collected.

Again, I'm not saying don't get rid of Wojo......we absolutely can but we are going to replace him with someone within our means which means a low level HC or an up and coming assistant.

[Litehouse]

Attendance change from one year to the next for MU would help clarify more.

Here's what I found for avg attendance:
2016 - 13,308
2017 - 13,715
2018 - 12,323 (the Al NIT games dropped this)
2019 - 15,611 (Fiserv bump and UW at home)
2020 - 15,145

This year held pretty steady from the previous year, considering the new arena novelty is gone and UW was away.  I don't have season ticket holder numbers, but I'm guessing this year was pretty close to last year.

[mu03eng]

Here's what I found for avg attendance:
2016 - 13,308
2017 - 13,715
2018 - 12,323 (the Al NIT games dropped this)
2019 - 15,611 (Fiserv bump and UW at home)
2020 - 15,145

This year held pretty steady from the previous year, considering the new arena novelty is gone and UW was away.  I don't have season ticket holder numbers, but I'm guessing this year was pretty close to last year.

Correct, and this is why I said the metrics that matter to MU (STH#, overall attendance, potential student applications, application conversions, etc) are not getting appreciably worse. Until that happens, I don't think Wojo gets canned and there is almost no way MU blows up the current coaching model while also firing Wojo.

[skianth16]

The basketball margin pays for the rest of the athletic department funding (by and large) so even if you don't assume similar profit margins and want to break even.....any such more has to generate roughly $3.5M a year in the first four years using my example....that means 20% increase in revenue in the next four years. You aren't going to get that when MU is already in the top 15 in attendance. Maybe there are big donors out there that aren't investing because of Wojo that flips this equation on it's head but I'm highly highly doubtful there is a significant pool of donor money waiting to be collected.

Again, I'm not saying don't get rid of Wojo......we absolutely can but we are going to replace him with someone within our means which means a low level HC or an up and coming assistant.

This is a reasonable take, and I think it's a very fair point to make. I think you're right in the big picture in saying that hiring a big name coach with a big salary demand will be tough to do. Adding to that the fact that the talent pool in that salary range is more limited to begin with, and I would agree that it's highly unlikely that we go after a big fish.

[brewcity77]

Ive spoken my mind about Becker, I wouldn't prefer a low-major guy in his mid 50s who has never been at a high level, period.

I get it, but let's be honest about Becker. He's 51 & will probably be doing this for another 15-20 years.

An older coach is fine and maybe even preferable. If he's successful the first 5 years, he's 56 and not young enough for the big dogs to go after but is young enough to stick for a decade plus. He's not my first or only choice, but he's consistently improved his 3-year batch numbers (maybe hitting a ceiling this year) and his teams are vastly better than anything Lonergan did. He'd be worth a look.

[Billy Hoyle]

MU absolutely could. It's a matter of whether they're willing to do it.

I've got to think that there are tons of mid-major coaches that would love to have a shot to move into the Big East. A guy like John Becker at Vermont who has been super successful for a long stretch makes sense to me. Or maybe we give Matt McMahon from Murray State a look, assuming we can get over the hard feelings from last March. Casey Alexander from Belmont is interesting too. He did well at Lipscomb the last few years and is now having a strong first year as the HC at Belmont, where he was a long-time assistant.

Heck, what about Mark Pope at BYU, Anthony Grant from Dayton, or Ben Jacobs at UNI. They're all having great seasons this year, but they're not in top tier destinations.

These are the kinds of coaches I'd be excited to get. And I don't see why it would be hard for us to lure these guys away from their current positions. The money, the conference, the facilities, the recruiting power... it would all be a big step up. Seems like a win-win to me.

First; it's Jacobson, not Jacobs. He's a reasonable candidate but he's got a very large buyout.  Unless Wojo leaves on his own MU isn't going to be able to afford to pay both.
Second; Pope? Really? He's LDS, BYU is his dream job and for him, it is a "top tier destination." They have more money than we do to keep him around. Plus, he just finished his first year with a senior (citizen) laden team left by his predecessor. Besides, he's nearly guaranteed to finish in the top three every year in a multi-bid league and be in contention for the tourney.

[skianth16]

First; it's Jacobson, not Jacobs. He's a reasonable candidate but he's got a very large buyout.  Unless Wojo leaves on his own MU isn't going to be able to afford to pay both.
Second; Pope? Really? He's LDS, BYU is his dream job and for him, it is a "top tier destination." They have more money than we do to keep him around. Plus, he just finished his first year with a senior (citizen) laden team left by his predecessor. Besides, he's nearly guaranteed to finish in the top three every year in a multi-bid league and be in contention for the tourney.

I should have put the religious connection in for Pope. Duh, makes total sense.

I'm not nearly as informed on who's in/out of the coaching carousel as others here. I was just responding to the idea that MU would struggle to get a proven D1 coach. And in that sense, there are plenty of guys out there doing a good job for lesser schools/conferences. Guys like the coaches mentioned above aren't overly abundant, but they're not super scarce either. I've got to think there are some good opportunities available for MU if we look for current HCs.

[Billy Hoyle]

I should have put the religious connection in for Pope. Duh, makes total sense.

I'm not nearly as informed on who's in/out of the coaching carousel as others here. I was just responding to the idea that MU would struggle to get a proven D1 coach. And in that sense, there are plenty of guys out there doing a good job for lesser schools/conferences. Guys like the coaches mentioned above aren't overly abundant, but they're not super scarce either. I've got to think there are some good opportunities available for MU if we look for current HCs.

It's a rule that BYU coaches have to be LDS. It greatly limits qualified candidates.  In football, they only had two legit candidates and were turned down by their top choice. If Pope hadn't accepted their next choice was Barrett Perry of Portland State.

[muguru]

Not calling you a liar, simply saying you are either intentionally or unintentionally ignorant of the economic factors at play. Your single choice (fire Wojo and hire away a well established HC) generates the following expenses:
-Pay Wojo's buyout (we don't know what it is but it ain't small)
-Acquire a new HC at 2x of our current salary level
-Likely have to fund some of the buyout from said HC's current school

The first and third items are one time expenses but they are big and the second is a substantial recurring expense. All of this while the demographic shift for universities generally and private universities specifically is forcing schools to really look at expenses and cut where possible. Unless your suggestion is going to bring in 3x current revenue (donations + ticket sales) it makes zero sense. Might as well sell tickets to the money burning party, it would be as profitable.

Bottom line, if you look at the metrics that matter to MU, the Wojo era has little to no decrease from the Buzz era so there is zero incentive to further ramp up our spending on basketball.

Your points are all valid, however as we all know every school has donors that help with this stuff. MU is no different. Thus, the actual money MU pays out, wouldn't be as significant as it seems, a very sizable chunk of it would be taken care of by donors.

[harryp]

Bennett will never come to MU. He thinks that we screwed his dad, who finally go to UW.

[Litehouse]

Your points are all valid, however as we all know every school has donors that help with this stuff. MU is no different. Thus, the actual money MU pays out, wouldn't be as significant as it seems, a very sizable chunk of it would be taken care of by donors.

That assumes there are big donors that really want to get rid of Wojo.  We just don't know if that's true or not.

[wadesworld]

Bennett will never come to MU. He thinks that we screwed his dad, who finally go to UW. is a legend at a better school and program than MU, and most likely is paid better than MU can pay him.

FIFY.

[muguru]

That assumes there are big donors that really want to get rid of Wojo.  We just don't know if that's true or not.

Correct, but IF the decision is made to let him go, donors would be called and asked if they would be willing to help out etc.