Big East Tournament seeding

[bilsu]

The only matchup I see us having a decent chance of winning is Villanova.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I will update again after X / Gtown game as I feel like X will win and Trank project Gtown to win, but..

Current standings, with remaining schedules a T-rank projected results:

1. Seton Hall 13-3 (vs. Nova (W), @ Creighton (L))
2. Creighton 11-5 (vs. Gtown (W), vs, Hall (W))
3. Villanova 11-5 (@ Hall (L), @ Gtown (W))
4. Providence 10-6 (vs. X (W), vs. Depaul (W))
5. Butler 8-8 (vs. SJU (W), @ Xavier (L))
6. Marquette 8-8 (@ Depaul (W), @ SJU (W))
7. Xavier 7-8 (@ Gtown (L), @ PC (L), vs. Butler (W))
8. Georgetown 5-10 (vs. X (W), @ Creighton (L), vs. Nova (L))
9. St. Johns 4-12 (@ Butler (L), vs. MU (L))
10. Depaul 2-14 (vs. MU (L), @ PC (L))

Final projected standings:

1. Seton Hall 14-4
2. Creighton 13-5
3. Providence 12-6 (beats Nova in tie breaker; 1-1 H2H, PC beat Hall, Nova 0-1 against Hall and projected to lose to them this week)
4. Villanova 12-6
5. Marquette 10-8
6. Butler 9-9
7. Xavier 8-10
8. Georgetown 6-12
9. St. John's 4-14
10. Depaul 2-16

We're either playing PC or Nova I think.  If Nova beats Hall at Hall in their mid-week game, PC and Nova would both be 1-1 against Hall and Creighton.  Would the tiebreaker then be their record vs. MU, the next highest seed?  That's my understanding, so in that case, PC would be the 3 seed and Nova the 4 seed. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I will update again after X / Gtown game as I feel like X will win and Trank project Gtown to win, but..

Current standings, with remaining schedules a T-rank projected results:

1. Seton Hall 13-3 (vs. Nova (W), @ Creighton (L))
2. Creighton 11-5 (vs. Gtown (W), vs, Hall (W))
3. Villanova 11-5 (@ Hall (L), @ Gtown (W))
4. Providence 10-6 (vs. X (W), vs. Depaul (W))
5. Butler 8-8 (vs. SJU (W), @ Xavier (L))
6. Marquette 8-8 (@ Depaul (W), @ SJU (W))
7. Xavier 7-8 (@ Gtown (L), @ PC (L), vs. Butler (W))
8. Georgetown 5-10 (vs. X (W), @ Creighton (L), vs. Nova (L))
9. St. Johns 4-12 (@ Butler (L), vs. MU (L))
10. Depaul 2-14 (vs. MU (L), @ PC (L))

Final projected standings:

1. Seton Hall 14-4
2. Creighton 13-5
3. Providence 12-6 (beats Nova in tie breaker; 1-1 H2H, PC beat Hall, Nova 0-1 against Hall and projected to lose to them this week)
4. Villanova 12-6
5. Marquette 10-8
6. Butler 9-9
7. Xavier 8-10
8. Georgetown 6-12
9. St. John's 4-14
10. Depaul 2-16

We're either playing PC or Nova I think.  If Nova beats Hall at Hall in their mid-week game, PC and Nova would both be 1-1 against Hall and Creighton.  Would the tiebreaker then be their record vs. MU, the next highest seed?  That's my understanding, so in that case, PC would be the 3 seed and Nova the 4 seed.

I would love this draw for the BET. I think both Nova and Hall are beatable.

[MUfan12]

They'd love it too.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I would love this draw for the BET. I think both Nova and Hall are beatable.

Hall sure seems to bring it against us.  Honestly tho, that team we played yesterday wins the Natty.  Glad I got Hall at 25-1 when I did. 

[BM1090]

They'd love it too.
[/quote

Yep. We aren't beating SHU on a neutral court. I think Nova could be a good game but wouldn't be on us.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Updated with X win over Gtown.  X now projected to be the 6 seed over Butler via their win over Seton Hall.  Of course Butler and X play next weekend so they'll likely be playing for that first round bye and 6 seed.  T-rank projects X to win that game at home. 

Current standings, with remaining schedules a T-rank projected results:

1. Seton Hall 13-3 (vs. Nova (W), @ Creighton (L))
2. Creighton 11-5 (vs. Gtown (W), vs, Hall (W))
3. Villanova 11-5 (@ Hall (L), @ Gtown (W))
4. Providence 10-6 (vs. X (W), vs. Depaul (W))
5. Butler 8-8 (vs. SJU (W), @ Xavier (L))
6. Marquette 8-8 (@ Depaul (W), @ SJU (W))
7. Xavier 8-8 (@ PC (L), vs. Butler (W))
8. Georgetown 5-11 (@ Creighton (L), vs. Nova (L))
9. St. Johns 4-12 (@ Butler (L), vs. MU (L))
10. Depaul 2-14 (vs. MU (L), @ PC (L))

Final projected standings:

1. Seton Hall 14-4
2. Creighton 13-5
3. Providence 12-6 (beats Nova in tie breaker; 1-1 H2H, PC beat Hall, Nova 0-1 against Hall and projected to lose to them this week)
4. Villanova 12-6
5. Marquette 10-8
6. Xavier 9-9 (beats Butler in tie breaker; 1-1 H2H, X beat Hall, Butler 0-2 against Hall)
7. Butler 9-9
8. Georgetown 5-13
9. St. John's 4-14
10. Depaul 2-16

[BM1090]

Unfortunately, I think there is a decent chance we fall to 7 if PC loses to X this week. Cheering for the Friars.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Unfortunately, I think there is a decent chance we fall to 7 if PC loses to X this week. Cheering for the Friars.

Yah, if X goes 2-0 next week, and we go 1-1, that is pretty likely. Butler beats MU in tiebreakers. 

X didn't play well at all today tho.  Not expecting them to go 2-0 next week. 

[BM1090]

Yah, if X goes 2-0 next week, and we go 1-1, that is pretty likely. Butler beats MU in tiebreakers. 

X didn't play well at all today tho.  Not expecting them to go 2-0 next week.

Yep. X loses to PC or MU goes 2-0 and obviously it's not an issue.

[PaintTouches]

Didn't want to start a new thread, but here are the BET seeding scenarios as of today. Butler's 2-4 record vs SH/VU/CU gives them most of the tiebreakers over Marquette.

https://painttouches.com/2020/03/03/marquette-big-east-tournament-seeding-scenarios/

Let me know what I flubbed.

[Benny B]

Didn't want to start a new thread, but here are the BET seeding scenarios as of today. Butler's 2-4 record vs SH/VU/CU gives them most of the tiebreakers over Marquette.

https://painttouches.com/2020/03/03/marquette-big-east-tournament-seeding-scenarios/

Let me know what I flubbed.

There is no possible scenario where MU can get the 4-seed... but you already knew that.  (I am going to assume the 2% means odds of "tied for 4th," not the actual seeding.)

5th place is correct.

[Billy Hoyle]

Hall sure seems to bring it against us.  Honestly tho, that team we played yesterday wins the Natty.  Glad I got Hall at 25-1 when I did.

you have that much faith in Kevin Willard?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

you have that much faith in Kevin Willard?

I think Seton Hall is one of the best 3-5 teams in the country, so at 25-1 odds, ya I am happy to put some faith in Willard. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Current standings, with remaining schedules a T-rank projected results:

1. Seton Hall 13-3 (vs. Nova (W), @ Creighton (L))
2. Creighton 11-5 (vs. Gtown (W), vs, Hall (W))
3. Villanova 11-5 (@ Hall (L), @ Gtown (W))
4. Providence 10-6 (vs. X (W), vs. Depaul (W))
5. Butler 8-8 (vs. SJU (W), @ Xavier (L))
6. Xavier 8-8 (@ PC (L), vs. Butler (W))
7. Marquette 8-9 (@ SJU (W))
8. Georgetown 5-11 (@ Creighton (L), vs. Nova (L))
9. St. Johns 4-12 (@ Butler (L), vs. MU (L))
10. Depaul 3-14  (@ PC (L))

Final projected standings:

1. Seton Hall 14-4
2. Creighton 13-5
3. Providence 12-6 (beats Nova in tie breaker; 1-1 H2H, PC beat Hall, Nova 0-1 against Hall and projected to lose to them this week)
4. Villanova 12-6
5. Marquette 9-9 (beats X and Butler in mini-conference)
6. Butler 9-9
7. Xavier 9-9
8. Georgetown 5-13
9. St. John's 4-14
10. Depaul 3-15

Obviously if Marquette loses on Saturday, which is looking at least very possible, they're the 7 seed unless X goes 0-2 this week. 

[SaveOD238]

Current standings, with remaining schedules a T-rank projected results:

1. Seton Hall 13-3 (vs. Nova (W), @ Creighton (L))
2. Creighton 11-5 (vs. Gtown (W), vs, Hall (W))
3. Villanova 11-5 (@ Hall (L), @ Gtown (W))
4. Providence 10-6 (vs. X (W), vs. Depaul (W))
5. Butler 8-8 (vs. SJU (W), @ Xavier (L))
6. Xavier 8-8 (@ PC (L), vs. Butler (W))
7. Marquette 8-9 (@ SJU (W))
8. Georgetown 5-11 (@ Creighton (L), vs. Nova (L))
9. St. Johns 4-12 (@ Butler (L), vs. MU (L))
10. Depaul 3-14  (@ PC (L))

Final projected standings:

1. Seton Hall 14-4
2. Creighton 13-5
3. Providence 12-6 (beats Nova in tie breaker; 1-1 H2H, PC beat Hall, Nova 0-1 against Hall and projected to lose to them this week)
4. Villanova 12-6
5. Marquette 9-9 (beats X and Butler in mini-conference)
6. Butler 9-9
7. Xavier 9-9
8. Georgetown 5-13
9. St. John's 4-14
10. Depaul 3-15

Obviously if Marquette loses on Saturday, which is looking at least very possible, they're the 7 seed unless X goes 0-2 this week.

Is there a situation where we win Saturday (9-9) but still end up 7th?

If X wins twice, they'd by 10-8, but Butler would be at best 9-9 (since they play each other).  If Butler wins twice they'd by 10-8 but X couldn't end up better than 9-9.  I know we beat X in a tiebreaker, but does Butler beat us in a two-team tie-break situation?

[BM1090]

Is there a situation where we win Saturday (9-9) but still end up 7th?

If X wins twice, they'd by 10-8, but Butler would be at best 9-9 (since they play each other).  If Butler wins twice they'd by 10-8 but X couldn't end up better than 9-9.  I know we beat X in a tiebreaker, but does Butler beat us in a two-team tie-break situation?

Yes to your last question. If X loses to PC tonight we avoid the 7 with a win on Saturday.

If X beats PC then we need them to beat Butler and we need to win on Saturday.

[cheebs09]

Talk about a collapse. Xavier started our game as the number 1 seed and dropped like a rock the next time the graphic was shown last night.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Is there a situation where we win Saturday (9-9) but still end up 7th?

If X wins twice, they'd by 10-8, but Butler would be at best 9-9 (since they play each other).  If Butler wins twice they'd by 10-8 but X couldn't end up better than 9-9.  I know we beat X in a tiebreaker, but does Butler beat us in a two-team tie-break situation?

Yes.  We beat X in all tie breakers, lose to Butler in all tie breakers.  So if X wins tonight @PC and Saturday vs. Butler, they're 10-8, and Butler wins tonight vs. SJU, but loses @X on Saturday, MU is the 7 seed whether they win or lose on Satuday. 

Never know in this big east, but I don't think X is going to win @PC. 

[Miss Katie’s]

Talk about a collapse. Xavier started our game as the number 1 seed and dropped like a rock the next time the graphic was shown last night.

Thanks for the much needed laugh.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

PC beats X, which is pretty good result in terms of Marquette avoiding the 7 seed. 

Current standings, with remaining schedules a T-rank projected results:

1. Seton Hall 13-3 (vs. Nova (W), @ Creighton (L))
2. Creighton 11-5 (vs. Gtown (W), vs, Hall (W))
3. Villanova 11-5 (@ Hall (L), @ Gtown (W))
4. Providence 11-6 (vs. Depaul (W))
5. Butler 8-8 (vs. SJU (W), @ Xavier (L))
6. Marquette 8-9 (@ SJU (W))
7. Xavier 8-9 (vs. Butler (W))
8. Georgetown 5-11 (@ Creighton (L), vs. Nova (L))
9. St. Johns 4-12 (@ Butler (L), vs. MU (L))
10. Depaul 3-14  (@ PC (L))

Final projected standings:

1. Seton Hall 14-4
2. Creighton 13-5
3. Providence 12-6 (beats Nova in tie breaker; 1-1 H2H, PC beat Hall, Nova 0-1 against Hall and projected to lose to them this week)
4. Villanova 12-6
5. Marquette 9-9 (beats X and Butler in mini-conference)
6. Butler 9-9
7. Xavier 9-9
8. Georgetown 5-13
9. St. John's 4-14
10. Depaul 3-15

[BM1090]

So I believe the scenarios are as follows.

MU wins, Xavier wins - 5 seed
MU wins, Butler wins - 6 seed
SJU wins, Butler wins - 6 seed
SJU wins, Xavier wins - 7 seed

[MUDPT]

So I believe the scenarios are as follows.

MU wins, Xavier wins - 5 seed
MU wins, Butler wins - 6 seed
SJU wins, Butler wins - 6 seed
SJU wins, Xavier wins - 7 seed

Correct, MU plays at 11, Butler and X at 7:30.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Current standings, with remaining schedules a T-rank projected results:

1. Seton Hall 13-4 (@ Creighton (L))
2. Creighton 12-5 (vs. Hall (W))
3. Villanova 12-5 (@ Gtown (W))
4. Providence 11-6 (vs. Depaul (W))
5. Butler 9-8 (@ Xavier (L))
6. Marquette 8-9 (@ SJU (W))
7. Xavier 8-9 (vs. Butler (W))
8. Georgetown 5-12 (vs. Nova (L))
9. St. Johns 4-13 (vs. MU (L))
10. Depaul 3-14  (@ PC (L))

Final projected standings:

1. Creighton 13-5 (win mini-conf 3-1)
2. Villanova 13-5 (2-2 mini conf)
3. Seton Hall 13-5 (1-3 mini conf)
4. Providence 12-6
5. Marquette 9-9 (beats X and Butler in mini-conference)
6. Butler 9-9
7. Xavier 9-9
8. Georgetown 5-13
9. St. John's 4-14
10. Depaul 3-15

If Creighton beats Hall at home on Saturday as projected, 3 way tie is broken with Creighton 1 seed, Nova 2 seed and Hall 3 seed.  This also assumes Nova takes care of business @Gtown. 

[SaveOD238]

Correct, MU plays at 11, Butler and X at 7:30.

So our rooting interests change depending on whether we win or lose.  Win and we're cheering for Xavier.  Lose and we're cheering for Butler.