Big East Tournament seeding

[SaveOD238]

I checked out the conference standings this morning to actually think about tournament seeding for the first time.

Seton Hall, Villanova, and Creighton will be 1, 2, 3 in some order.  Providence or Marquette could technically crash this group but they are both 2 or 3 back with 3 to play. 

4-7 will probably be Providence, Marquette, Xavier, and Butler.  Ideally we will end up in the 4-5 game (in which case seed only matters for jerseys), with ending up at 6 a slightly worse draw.  No one wants to be 7th.

The seeding tiebreaker is head to head for two and mini-conference for three or more.  Since PC beat us twice we're unlikely to pass them, but we handled X twice, so we should stay ahead of them, which protects us from the 7.

If I had to guess, we'll get Providence in the 4-5 game.

[drewm88]

2nd tiebreaker after head-to-head/mini-conference is record against #1, right?

MU: 8-7.
Remaining: Hall, @DP, @SJU
vs. Butler 1-1
vs. X 2-0
vs. PC 0-2
Top 3 wins: Nova

PC: 9-6
Remaining: @Nova, X, DP
vs. MU 2-0
vs. Butler 1-1
vs. X 0-1
Top 3 wins: Creighton, Hall

Butler: 7-8.
Remaining: DP, SJU, @X
vs. MU 1-1
vs. X 1-0
vs. PC 1-1
Top 3 wins: Creighton, Nova

Xavier: 7-8
Remaining: @GT, @PC, Butler
vs. MU 0-2
vs. Butler 0-1
vs. PC 1-0
Top 3 wins: Hall

Can't pass Hall or Creighton (they get us on tiebreaker), so our ceiling is 3 seed if we win out and Nova loses out. That would also require Hall to win the conference or share with Creighton.
Win out, and we're no worse than 5th.
Go 2-1, and we're no worse than 6th because Butler or X has to lose another.
Lose more than 1, and we get what we deserve.

In other words, optimists should block their calendars off for the Thursday 1:30 slot.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

My dream scenario would be for Nova to finish first, Creighton/Seton Hall to finish 2/3, us to finish for 4th and Butler to finish 5th. I think Nova is the most beatable of the top 3 teams and Creighton is the one I want to avoid until the championship. I think Butler is the weakest of the group of 4.

For Nova to get the 1, Nova has to win at Seton Hall on March 4th. There is no scenario where they can get to the 1 seed without it. Creighton also has to lose at least one of their three remaining games too and they should be favored in all of them. Finally, we would need to beat Seton Hall at home, otherwise I think the tiebreakers would give the 1 seed to Hall.

As for Butler getting to the 4/5 line with us....not going to happen. If I've done the math right, the only way that happens is if Butler sweeps, we sweep, and Providence gets swept. Xavier could make things interesting if they swept their last three games (@GTWN, @PROV, BUT) but Providence owns the tiebreaker on Butler.

TLDR: Barring a miracle or a collapse, we are in the 4/5 game with Providence. Unfortunately, I think Creighton ends up with the 1 seed but all of Nova, Hall, and the Jays have a legit shot at it.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Current standings, with remaining schedules a T-rank projected results:

1. Seton Hall 12-3 (@ MU (L), vs. Nova (W), @ Creighton (L))
2. Creighton 11-4 (@SJU (W), vs. Gtown (W), vs, Hall (W))
3. Villanova 11-4 (vs. PC (W), @ Hall (L), @ Gtown (W))
4. Providence 9-6 (@ Nova (L), vs. X (W), vs. Depaul (W))
5. Marquette 8-7 (vs. Hall (W), @ Depaul (W), @ SJU (W))
6. Butler 7-8 (vs. Depaul (W), vs. SJU (W), @ Xavier (L))
7. Xavier 7-8 (@ Gtown (L), @ PC (L), vs. Butler (W))
8. Georgetown 5-10 (vs. X (W), @ Creighton (L), vs. Nova (L))
9. St. Johns 3-12 (vs. Creighton (L), @ Butler (L), vs. MU (L))
10. Depaul 2-13 (@ Butler (L), vs. MU (L), @ PC (L))

Final projected standings:

1. Creighton 14-4
2. Seton Hall 13-5 (beats Nova in projected 2-0 H2H)
3. Villanova 13-5
4. Providence 11-7 (beats Marquette in clinched 2-0 H2H)
5. Marquette 11-7
6. Butler 9-9
7. Xavier 8-10
8. Georgetown 6-12
9. St. John's 3-15
10. Depaul 2-16

I think this is mostly likely scenerio.  I could easily see Xavier winning at Gtown this weekend, which would bring them to 9-9 and tie with Butler if they beat Butler H2H @ X last game of season.  But I think Butler still gets 6 seed by virtue of beating Creighton, since Butler and X would be 1-1 H2H in this scenario. 

Obviously, even if Marquette goes 2-1 instead of 3-0 in the final 3 games, nothing really changes from Marquette's perspective.  Seton Hall and Creighton would tie for #1, but Creighton still wins tiebreaker over Hall assuming Creighton wins at home against Hall final game of season, as they're strongly favored to do. 

Also, the 4/5 seed game is at 130pm CT on Thursday March 12th.  So prepare ahead, MU likely playing during the work day. 

[drewm88]

As for Butler getting to the 4/5 line with us....not going to happen. If I've done the math right, the only way that happens is if Butler sweeps, we sweep, and Providence gets swept. Xavier could make things interesting if they swept their last three games (@GTWN, @PROV, BUT) but Providence owns the tiebreaker on Butler.

Providence and Butler split their 2 games. They could easily both end up 10-8 (Butler sweeps DePaul, SJ, @X; PC beats DePaul, loses to X and @Nova). If that's the case, Nova just needs to come out ahead of Hall for Butler to take the 2nd tiebreaker (and MU needs to sweep to stay ahead of Butler/PC.)

[lawdog77]

Lets make it the redemption tourney.  Beat Providence and Creighton who swept us,  then beat SHU in the fi al to redeem last year's BS.

[BM1090]

We could still pretty easily fall to 6. 1-2 finish and Butler wins out against DP, SJU, @ X. That's feasible.

I'd bet we finish 10-8, though.

[DoctorV]

Lets make it the redemption tourney.  Beat Providence and Creighton who swept us,  then beat SHU in the fi al to redeem last year's BS.

Exactly. I know folks will get all ‘let’s worry about winning one game first,’ and I also realize that the BET is a gauntlet and every game will be very losable just as easily as it is winnable, but I really do hope Marquette gets the 4v5 game v Providence.

I really like the idea of getting another shot at Providence and then Creighton, motivation would be very high. Skinning Providence, then CU, then Nova/SH to win the BET would be incredible, and a perfect farewell for Mr. Markus at the Garden. One can only wish

[BM1090]

Exactly. I know folks will get all ‘let’s worry about winning one game first,’ and I also realize that the BET is a gauntlet and every game will be very losable just as easily as it is winnable, but I really do hope Marquette gets the 4v5 game v Providence.

I really like the idea of getting another shot at Providence and then Creighton, motivation would be very high. Skinning Providence, then CU, then Nova/SH to win the BET would be incredible, and a perfect farewell for Mr. Markus at the Garden. One can only wish

I want Providence. Another game vs. a style that we struggle against and a team that's beat us twice would be a real challenge. That could be beneficial going into the tournament.

I want nothing to do with Creighton. They are clicking on all cylinders and they're just better than us. If we run into them on Saturday night, great. Let's take our shot. I don't want to see them before that.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Providence and Butler split their 2 games. They could easily both end up 10-8 (Butler sweeps DePaul, SJ, @X; PC beats DePaul, loses to X and @Nova). If that's the case, Nova just needs to come out ahead of Hall for Butler to take the 2nd tiebreaker (and MU needs to sweep to stay ahead of Butler/PC.)

Yep, I did miss that. Thanks

[muguru]

We could still pretty easily fall to 6. 1-2 finish and Butler wins out against DP, SJU, @ X. That's feasible.

I'd bet we finish 10-8, though.

If MU finishes 1-2...well, let's just say there are FAR bigger issues then BET seeding.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If MU finishes 1-2...well, let's just say there are FAR bigger issues then BET seeding.

Like...what exactly, other than your mental stability? 

If MU goes 1-2, and then a one and done in the BET, the worst thing that could happen is ending up in the 8/9 game. 

[BM1090]

If MU finishes 1-2...well, let's just say there are FAR bigger issues then BET seeding.

I don't think it will happen. I literally have a bet with another poster that we'll finish 3-1 or 4-0 (pre-Georgetown). If we beat SHU I'd be shocked if we lost both on the road, But a 1-2 finish isn't out of the question. SHU is a bit better than us and losing 1 of 2 on the road isn't a crazy thought.

According to Kenpom the chances we finish 3-0 are 21.22%. The chances we go 2-0 in our 2 road games are 36.6%.

Before last night the chance of winning out in the regular season was 15.7%.

[muguru]

Like...what exactly, other than your mental stability? 

If MU goes 1-2, and then a one and done in the BET, the worst thing that could happen is ending up in the 8/9 game.

It just amazes me how many people wouldn't be at all concerned with a loss to DePaul or SJU down the stretch. I mean the two schools combined have 5...count em 5 BE wins. Two of SJU's 3 are vs. DePaul..one of DePaul's is against a depleted Georgetown team..I mean, really?? That wouldn't concern or "surprise" anyone??

[Galway Eagle]

It just amazes me how many people wouldn't be at all concerned with a loss to DePaul or SJU down the stretch. I mean the two schools combined have 5...count em 5 BE wins. Two of SJU's 3 are vs. DePaul..one of DePaul's is against a depleted Georgetown team..I mean, really?? That wouldn't concern or "surprise" anyone??

Depends how we lost. If Depaul randomly comes out like they did against Iowa and Butler then no I'm not concerned just upset they did that to us. If we missed a bunch of open shots and played down to DePaul's level then absolutely concerned.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

It just amazes me how many people wouldn't be at all concerned with a loss to DePaul or SJU down the stretch. I mean the two schools combined have 5...count em 5 BE wins. Two of SJU's 3 are vs. DePaul..one of DePaul's is against a depleted Georgetown team..I mean, really?? That wouldn't concern or "surprise" anyone??

I didn't say I wouldn't be concerned.  If MU goes 1-2 to finish the season, then loses in the BET opener, I'll be pretty confident that it'll be a 1 game exit in the big dance, and that is very disappointing. 

I also think 1-2 in the next 3 is probably the 2nd most likely scenario behind 2-1.  SHU is going to be a coinflip, and while we definitely should take care of business @SJU and @Depaul, both teams are definitely capable of beating MU on their home floor. 

At the end of the day, I hope like hell we can use last night as a springboard, go 3-0 or 2-1 in the next 3, and win a game or two in BET.  That would be a huge step in the right direction for Marquette heading into the ncaa tourney.  But if they don't, and MU's season is down to is final 5 games, it'll suck and I'll be bummed for a few days, but then I'll move on because I don't let 18-22 year old kids playing a game greatly impact my life. 

[JakeBarnes]

If MU finishes 1-2...well, let's just say there are FAR bigger issues then BET seeding.

s

like which hotel to book for the ncca's?

[MUDPT]

I think, unless something crazy happens, our magic number over X is 2, which would clinch a quarterfinal appearance for the 15th straight season. Which is crazy.

[bilsu]

Assuming we lose to Seton Hall we will be 1-7 against the top 4 teams. Therefore, I do not think the seeding matters.

[MU82]

At the end of the day, I hope like hell we can use last night as a springboard, go 3-0 or 2-1 in the next 3, and win a game or two in BET.  That would be a huge step in the right direction for Marquette heading into the ncaa tourney.  But if they don't, and MU's season is down to is final 5 games, it'll suck and I'll be bummed for a few days, but then I'll move on because I don't let 18-22 year old kids playing a game greatly impact my life.

Way too mentally stable. Get off of Scoop this instant, young man.

[brewcity77]

Last year, it seemed like the nightmare scenario was falling into a draw against St. John's, who had beat us twice in the regular season. That nightmare was a 32-point win and our only victory down the stretch. I get that PC and Creighton feel like tough matchups, but we had Providence beat before the last couple minutes collapse at the Forum and Creighton will be overdue for a loss. I'm not going to get too worked up about any of these scenarios, though TAMU's Butler/'Nova path does seem pretty ideal.

[muwarrior97]

I don't think it will happen. I literally have a bet with another poster that we'll finish 3-1 or 4-0 (pre-Georgetown). If we beat SHU I'd be shocked if we lost both on the road, But a 1-2 finish isn't out of the question. SHU is a bit better than us and losing 1 of 2 on the road isn't a crazy thought.

According to Kenpom the chances we finish 3-0 are 21.22%. The chances we go 2-0 in our 2 road games are 36.6%.

Before last night the chance of winning out in the regular season was 15.7%.

Seton Hall is much much much much better than Marquette, sucks but it’s true

[BM1090]

Seton Hall is much much much much better than Marquette, sucks but it’s true

The gap looks pretty wide.

[muguru]

Want X to win today to make it a 3 way tie again. MU would win that mini conference, however in head to head with Butler(as it would be as of this moment), they would lose that tiebreaker and drop to the 6th seed.

[BM1090]

Want X to win today to make it a 3 way tie again. MU would win that mini conference, however in head to head with Butler(as it would be as of this moment), they would lose that tiebreaker and drop to the 6th seed.

Depends what the goal is. I don't really care if we're 4th, 5th or 6th, but I do want to avoid dropping to 7th. Now, if we lose our next two and open up that possibility then that's really on us anyways. But I wouldn't mind a Georgetown win to give X their 9th loss with a game vs Butler remaining.

[bilsu]

The only matchup I see us having a decent chance of winning is Villanova.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I will update again after X / Gtown game as I feel like X will win and Trank project Gtown to win, but..

Current standings, with remaining schedules a T-rank projected results:

1. Seton Hall 13-3 (vs. Nova (W), @ Creighton (L))
2. Creighton 11-5 (vs. Gtown (W), vs, Hall (W))
3. Villanova 11-5 (@ Hall (L), @ Gtown (W))
4. Providence 10-6 (vs. X (W), vs. Depaul (W))
5. Butler 8-8 (vs. SJU (W), @ Xavier (L))
6. Marquette 8-8 (@ Depaul (W), @ SJU (W))
7. Xavier 7-8 (@ Gtown (L), @ PC (L), vs. Butler (W))
8. Georgetown 5-10 (vs. X (W), @ Creighton (L), vs. Nova (L))
9. St. Johns 4-12 (@ Butler (L), vs. MU (L))
10. Depaul 2-14 (vs. MU (L), @ PC (L))

Final projected standings:

1. Seton Hall 14-4
2. Creighton 13-5
3. Providence 12-6 (beats Nova in tie breaker; 1-1 H2H, PC beat Hall, Nova 0-1 against Hall and projected to lose to them this week)
4. Villanova 12-6
5. Marquette 10-8
6. Butler 9-9
7. Xavier 8-10
8. Georgetown 6-12
9. St. John's 4-14
10. Depaul 2-16

We're either playing PC or Nova I think.  If Nova beats Hall at Hall in their mid-week game, PC and Nova would both be 1-1 against Hall and Creighton.  Would the tiebreaker then be their record vs. MU, the next highest seed?  That's my understanding, so in that case, PC would be the 3 seed and Nova the 4 seed. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I will update again after X / Gtown game as I feel like X will win and Trank project Gtown to win, but..

Current standings, with remaining schedules a T-rank projected results:

1. Seton Hall 13-3 (vs. Nova (W), @ Creighton (L))
2. Creighton 11-5 (vs. Gtown (W), vs, Hall (W))
3. Villanova 11-5 (@ Hall (L), @ Gtown (W))
4. Providence 10-6 (vs. X (W), vs. Depaul (W))
5. Butler 8-8 (vs. SJU (W), @ Xavier (L))
6. Marquette 8-8 (@ Depaul (W), @ SJU (W))
7. Xavier 7-8 (@ Gtown (L), @ PC (L), vs. Butler (W))
8. Georgetown 5-10 (vs. X (W), @ Creighton (L), vs. Nova (L))
9. St. Johns 4-12 (@ Butler (L), vs. MU (L))
10. Depaul 2-14 (vs. MU (L), @ PC (L))

Final projected standings:

1. Seton Hall 14-4
2. Creighton 13-5
3. Providence 12-6 (beats Nova in tie breaker; 1-1 H2H, PC beat Hall, Nova 0-1 against Hall and projected to lose to them this week)
4. Villanova 12-6
5. Marquette 10-8
6. Butler 9-9
7. Xavier 8-10
8. Georgetown 6-12
9. St. John's 4-14
10. Depaul 2-16

We're either playing PC or Nova I think.  If Nova beats Hall at Hall in their mid-week game, PC and Nova would both be 1-1 against Hall and Creighton.  Would the tiebreaker then be their record vs. MU, the next highest seed?  That's my understanding, so in that case, PC would be the 3 seed and Nova the 4 seed.

I would love this draw for the BET. I think both Nova and Hall are beatable.

[MUfan12]

They'd love it too.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I would love this draw for the BET. I think both Nova and Hall are beatable.

Hall sure seems to bring it against us.  Honestly tho, that team we played yesterday wins the Natty.  Glad I got Hall at 25-1 when I did. 

[BM1090]

They'd love it too.
[/quote

Yep. We aren't beating SHU on a neutral court. I think Nova could be a good game but wouldn't be on us.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Updated with X win over Gtown.  X now projected to be the 6 seed over Butler via their win over Seton Hall.  Of course Butler and X play next weekend so they'll likely be playing for that first round bye and 6 seed.  T-rank projects X to win that game at home. 

Current standings, with remaining schedules a T-rank projected results:

1. Seton Hall 13-3 (vs. Nova (W), @ Creighton (L))
2. Creighton 11-5 (vs. Gtown (W), vs, Hall (W))
3. Villanova 11-5 (@ Hall (L), @ Gtown (W))
4. Providence 10-6 (vs. X (W), vs. Depaul (W))
5. Butler 8-8 (vs. SJU (W), @ Xavier (L))
6. Marquette 8-8 (@ Depaul (W), @ SJU (W))
7. Xavier 8-8 (@ PC (L), vs. Butler (W))
8. Georgetown 5-11 (@ Creighton (L), vs. Nova (L))
9. St. Johns 4-12 (@ Butler (L), vs. MU (L))
10. Depaul 2-14 (vs. MU (L), @ PC (L))

Final projected standings:

1. Seton Hall 14-4
2. Creighton 13-5
3. Providence 12-6 (beats Nova in tie breaker; 1-1 H2H, PC beat Hall, Nova 0-1 against Hall and projected to lose to them this week)
4. Villanova 12-6
5. Marquette 10-8
6. Xavier 9-9 (beats Butler in tie breaker; 1-1 H2H, X beat Hall, Butler 0-2 against Hall)
7. Butler 9-9
8. Georgetown 5-13
9. St. John's 4-14
10. Depaul 2-16

[BM1090]

Unfortunately, I think there is a decent chance we fall to 7 if PC loses to X this week. Cheering for the Friars.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Unfortunately, I think there is a decent chance we fall to 7 if PC loses to X this week. Cheering for the Friars.

Yah, if X goes 2-0 next week, and we go 1-1, that is pretty likely. Butler beats MU in tiebreakers. 

X didn't play well at all today tho.  Not expecting them to go 2-0 next week. 

[BM1090]

Yah, if X goes 2-0 next week, and we go 1-1, that is pretty likely. Butler beats MU in tiebreakers. 

X didn't play well at all today tho.  Not expecting them to go 2-0 next week.

Yep. X loses to PC or MU goes 2-0 and obviously it's not an issue.

[PaintTouches]

Didn't want to start a new thread, but here are the BET seeding scenarios as of today. Butler's 2-4 record vs SH/VU/CU gives them most of the tiebreakers over Marquette.

https://painttouches.com/2020/03/03/marquette-big-east-tournament-seeding-scenarios/

Let me know what I flubbed.

[Benny B]

Didn't want to start a new thread, but here are the BET seeding scenarios as of today. Butler's 2-4 record vs SH/VU/CU gives them most of the tiebreakers over Marquette.

https://painttouches.com/2020/03/03/marquette-big-east-tournament-seeding-scenarios/

Let me know what I flubbed.

There is no possible scenario where MU can get the 4-seed... but you already knew that.  (I am going to assume the 2% means odds of "tied for 4th," not the actual seeding.)

5th place is correct.

[Billy Hoyle]

Hall sure seems to bring it against us.  Honestly tho, that team we played yesterday wins the Natty.  Glad I got Hall at 25-1 when I did.

you have that much faith in Kevin Willard?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

you have that much faith in Kevin Willard?

I think Seton Hall is one of the best 3-5 teams in the country, so at 25-1 odds, ya I am happy to put some faith in Willard. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Current standings, with remaining schedules a T-rank projected results:

1. Seton Hall 13-3 (vs. Nova (W), @ Creighton (L))
2. Creighton 11-5 (vs. Gtown (W), vs, Hall (W))
3. Villanova 11-5 (@ Hall (L), @ Gtown (W))
4. Providence 10-6 (vs. X (W), vs. Depaul (W))
5. Butler 8-8 (vs. SJU (W), @ Xavier (L))
6. Xavier 8-8 (@ PC (L), vs. Butler (W))
7. Marquette 8-9 (@ SJU (W))
8. Georgetown 5-11 (@ Creighton (L), vs. Nova (L))
9. St. Johns 4-12 (@ Butler (L), vs. MU (L))
10. Depaul 3-14  (@ PC (L))

Final projected standings:

1. Seton Hall 14-4
2. Creighton 13-5
3. Providence 12-6 (beats Nova in tie breaker; 1-1 H2H, PC beat Hall, Nova 0-1 against Hall and projected to lose to them this week)
4. Villanova 12-6
5. Marquette 9-9 (beats X and Butler in mini-conference)
6. Butler 9-9
7. Xavier 9-9
8. Georgetown 5-13
9. St. John's 4-14
10. Depaul 3-15

Obviously if Marquette loses on Saturday, which is looking at least very possible, they're the 7 seed unless X goes 0-2 this week. 

[SaveOD238]

Current standings, with remaining schedules a T-rank projected results:

1. Seton Hall 13-3 (vs. Nova (W), @ Creighton (L))
2. Creighton 11-5 (vs. Gtown (W), vs, Hall (W))
3. Villanova 11-5 (@ Hall (L), @ Gtown (W))
4. Providence 10-6 (vs. X (W), vs. Depaul (W))
5. Butler 8-8 (vs. SJU (W), @ Xavier (L))
6. Xavier 8-8 (@ PC (L), vs. Butler (W))
7. Marquette 8-9 (@ SJU (W))
8. Georgetown 5-11 (@ Creighton (L), vs. Nova (L))
9. St. Johns 4-12 (@ Butler (L), vs. MU (L))
10. Depaul 3-14  (@ PC (L))

Final projected standings:

1. Seton Hall 14-4
2. Creighton 13-5
3. Providence 12-6 (beats Nova in tie breaker; 1-1 H2H, PC beat Hall, Nova 0-1 against Hall and projected to lose to them this week)
4. Villanova 12-6
5. Marquette 9-9 (beats X and Butler in mini-conference)
6. Butler 9-9
7. Xavier 9-9
8. Georgetown 5-13
9. St. John's 4-14
10. Depaul 3-15

Obviously if Marquette loses on Saturday, which is looking at least very possible, they're the 7 seed unless X goes 0-2 this week.

Is there a situation where we win Saturday (9-9) but still end up 7th?

If X wins twice, they'd by 10-8, but Butler would be at best 9-9 (since they play each other).  If Butler wins twice they'd by 10-8 but X couldn't end up better than 9-9.  I know we beat X in a tiebreaker, but does Butler beat us in a two-team tie-break situation?

[BM1090]

Is there a situation where we win Saturday (9-9) but still end up 7th?

If X wins twice, they'd by 10-8, but Butler would be at best 9-9 (since they play each other).  If Butler wins twice they'd by 10-8 but X couldn't end up better than 9-9.  I know we beat X in a tiebreaker, but does Butler beat us in a two-team tie-break situation?

Yes to your last question. If X loses to PC tonight we avoid the 7 with a win on Saturday.

If X beats PC then we need them to beat Butler and we need to win on Saturday.

[cheebs09]

Talk about a collapse. Xavier started our game as the number 1 seed and dropped like a rock the next time the graphic was shown last night.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Is there a situation where we win Saturday (9-9) but still end up 7th?

If X wins twice, they'd by 10-8, but Butler would be at best 9-9 (since they play each other).  If Butler wins twice they'd by 10-8 but X couldn't end up better than 9-9.  I know we beat X in a tiebreaker, but does Butler beat us in a two-team tie-break situation?

Yes.  We beat X in all tie breakers, lose to Butler in all tie breakers.  So if X wins tonight @PC and Saturday vs. Butler, they're 10-8, and Butler wins tonight vs. SJU, but loses @X on Saturday, MU is the 7 seed whether they win or lose on Satuday. 

Never know in this big east, but I don't think X is going to win @PC. 

[Miss Katie’s]

Talk about a collapse. Xavier started our game as the number 1 seed and dropped like a rock the next time the graphic was shown last night.

Thanks for the much needed laugh.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

PC beats X, which is pretty good result in terms of Marquette avoiding the 7 seed. 

Current standings, with remaining schedules a T-rank projected results:

1. Seton Hall 13-3 (vs. Nova (W), @ Creighton (L))
2. Creighton 11-5 (vs. Gtown (W), vs, Hall (W))
3. Villanova 11-5 (@ Hall (L), @ Gtown (W))
4. Providence 11-6 (vs. Depaul (W))
5. Butler 8-8 (vs. SJU (W), @ Xavier (L))
6. Marquette 8-9 (@ SJU (W))
7. Xavier 8-9 (vs. Butler (W))
8. Georgetown 5-11 (@ Creighton (L), vs. Nova (L))
9. St. Johns 4-12 (@ Butler (L), vs. MU (L))
10. Depaul 3-14  (@ PC (L))

Final projected standings:

1. Seton Hall 14-4
2. Creighton 13-5
3. Providence 12-6 (beats Nova in tie breaker; 1-1 H2H, PC beat Hall, Nova 0-1 against Hall and projected to lose to them this week)
4. Villanova 12-6
5. Marquette 9-9 (beats X and Butler in mini-conference)
6. Butler 9-9
7. Xavier 9-9
8. Georgetown 5-13
9. St. John's 4-14
10. Depaul 3-15

[BM1090]

So I believe the scenarios are as follows.

MU wins, Xavier wins - 5 seed
MU wins, Butler wins - 6 seed
SJU wins, Butler wins - 6 seed
SJU wins, Xavier wins - 7 seed

[MUDPT]

So I believe the scenarios are as follows.

MU wins, Xavier wins - 5 seed
MU wins, Butler wins - 6 seed
SJU wins, Butler wins - 6 seed
SJU wins, Xavier wins - 7 seed

Correct, MU plays at 11, Butler and X at 7:30.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Current standings, with remaining schedules a T-rank projected results:

1. Seton Hall 13-4 (@ Creighton (L))
2. Creighton 12-5 (vs. Hall (W))
3. Villanova 12-5 (@ Gtown (W))
4. Providence 11-6 (vs. Depaul (W))
5. Butler 9-8 (@ Xavier (L))
6. Marquette 8-9 (@ SJU (W))
7. Xavier 8-9 (vs. Butler (W))
8. Georgetown 5-12 (vs. Nova (L))
9. St. Johns 4-13 (vs. MU (L))
10. Depaul 3-14  (@ PC (L))

Final projected standings:

1. Creighton 13-5 (win mini-conf 3-1)
2. Villanova 13-5 (2-2 mini conf)
3. Seton Hall 13-5 (1-3 mini conf)
4. Providence 12-6
5. Marquette 9-9 (beats X and Butler in mini-conference)
6. Butler 9-9
7. Xavier 9-9
8. Georgetown 5-13
9. St. John's 4-14
10. Depaul 3-15

If Creighton beats Hall at home on Saturday as projected, 3 way tie is broken with Creighton 1 seed, Nova 2 seed and Hall 3 seed.  This also assumes Nova takes care of business @Gtown. 

[SaveOD238]

Correct, MU plays at 11, Butler and X at 7:30.

So our rooting interests change depending on whether we win or lose.  Win and we're cheering for Xavier.  Lose and we're cheering for Butler.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

So our rooting interests change depending on whether we win or lose.  Win and we're cheering for Xavier.  Lose and we're cheering for Butler.

Does it really matter between 5 and 6 seed?  I honestly think I'd rather play Nova or Seton Hall in the 3/6 game than PC in the 4/5 (putting aside this coming Saturday's results).  Nova is beatable, PC is playing out their mind.  Also, a loss to Nova or Hall computer wise doesn't hurt in the slightest.  Frankly, neither would PC at this point, but obviously Nova/SHU still way above PC in the overall pecking order. 

I'd be fine another shot at PC tho.  At the end of the day, it isn't going to matter much who we get - but my guess is if we win Saturday we get PC in the 4/5 game, if we lose we get Hall in the 3/6 game. 

[CountryRoads]

Xavier wins: MU plays DePaul Wednesday.

Butler wins: MU plays Seton Hall Thursday.

[BM1090]

Xavier wins: MU plays DePaul Wednesday.

Butler wins: MU plays Seton Hall Thursday.

If I knew for sure that we'd beat DePaul, I'd rather go that route and play Nova. Unfortunately that seems to be tough for us.

[pbiflyer]

Seems like any hope of another victory for us outside of an NIT game would be to cheer for Xavier then.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Seriously I dont think it matters who we play--pretty much everyone will be a challenge.

[muguru]

Actually at this point, it's a total sh*t show so it doesn't really matter, but, since there is still basketball left to be played, I'm sure we will all hope they win as many games as they can. So, IF(and it's a big IF) right now they have ANY chance of breaking this skid, the 7 seed might just be the best road and give them the best chance(not saying it's likely) to win a game and possibly 2. As it is, they would play DePaul and then Nova...I think that's the best path right now as crazy as it sounds.

[HutchwasClutch]

Seriously I dont think it matters who we play--pretty much everyone will be a challenge.

Take out pretty much and you got it. This is a team that would highly likely be on a 7 game losing streak had Georgetown not been so horribly undermanned and playing them at home.

[bilsu]

Xavier wins: MU plays DePaul Wednesday.

Butler wins: MU plays Seton Hall Thursday.

Assuming this is correct than I am rooting for Xavier to win.

[lawdog77]

Assuming this is correct than I am rooting for Xavier to win.

I am not. If Xavier wins, they may move ahead of us on the NCAa tourney seeding line.

[bilsu]

I am not. If Xavier wins, they may move ahead of us on the NCAa tourney seeding line.

We lose to DePaul and we do not deserve an NCAA bid. Xavier beats DePaul and we get thumped by Seton Hall, they may be seeded ahead of us anyway.
Besides that the only way I see us winning an NCAA tournament game is if we end up in the play in game in Dayton.

[Windyplayer]

Ok, so Seton Hall. Let’s get after it.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

I am not. If Xavier wins, they may move ahead of us on the NCAa tourney seeding line.

This
Happened two tears ago like that.  Xavier swept us and got in with the same record as mu in conference. 

[vogue65]

Ok, so Seton Hall. Let’s get after it.

After what?
Our bigs are a step too slow and can't shoot.
Our ONLY shot is to play small ball, be faster and hit our shots.
If we hit shots no need to rebound. 
Midwest country kids come to the big city and face ballers.  Are we ready?

[brewcity77]

Ok, so Seton Hall. Let’s get after it.

We can beat the Hall. Just need Howard to go for 50+. And other people to show up.

[skianth16]

We can beat the Hall. Just need Howard to go for 50+. And other people to show up.

NBD, right?

In all seriousness, we can gang with anyone in the conference if we play team basketball. They're big, so we can't run with the second half lineup that worked well today, so let Markus be the go-to, but Sacar and one of Brendan, Koby, or Jamal need to play really well. And Wojo needs to go full jacket-less mode to keep the team motivated for the full game.

[vogue65]

We can beat the Hall. Just need Howard to go for 50+. And other people to show up.

You are right, the rest of the team can stand around and watch the show.  As Howard gets triple-teamed our guys get back on defense.  We have a plan, Seton Hall is toast.

[brewcity77]

NBD, right?

In all seriousness, we can gang with anyone in the conference if we play team basketball. They're big, so we can't run with the second half lineup that worked well today, so let Markus be the go-to, but Sacar and one of Brendan, Koby, or Jamal need to play really well. And Wojo needs to go full jacket-less mode to keep the team motivated for the full game.

I think what we need to do against Seton Hall is the opposite of what Wojo would ever do. Slow the pace, limit turnovers, and when you attack, do it going at the rim. Need to be willing to move the ball in the paint to get their bigs going in the wrong direction and into foul trouble.

But Wojo slowing the pace and focusing on attacking the paint instead of up-tempo three bombs? Never happen.

[vogue65]

I think what we need to do against Seton Hall is the opposite of what Wojo would ever do. Slow the pace, limit turnovers, and when you attack, do it going at the rim. Need to be willing to move the ball in the paint to get their bigs going in the wrong direction and into foul trouble.

But Wojo slowing the pace and focusing on attacking the paint instead of up-tempo three bombs? Never happen.

I noticed something in the last S.H. game.  The Hall players were all sweating, only two of our guys were sweating.    What does that mean?   They take salt pills, or move more, or substitute less, or what?