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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks] The Grand Unified Theory of Wojo……or why I learned to stop w  (Read 3414 times)

mu03eng

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I've done some digging into it before, all manually. As someone whose primary interest is a national title, I think F4 numbers can be overrated. For every Izzo that gets to a F4 relatively early and follow it with a title, there's guys like Smart, Larranaga, and Crean who get there once and never translate that to the ultimate prize.

Don't necessarily disagree, but I still think it's an interesting data point....how long did it take in the coaching career and how repeatable/sustainable does it tend to be.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

TAMU Garcia

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Good stuff Eng. I feel the same way you do, but you articulated it much better than I ever could have.

I still believe that the best way to long term success is to hire a young coach with potential, invest in them heavily, allow them to grow through mistakes, and then turn that early investment into loyalty when the coach starts turning in good results. This model has worked with programs like Syracuse, Duke, Villanova, UConn, etc. This of course requires a school to pick the right young coach to bet on. Investment doesn't always lead to success. Knowing when to cut bait and find a new young coach is a tricky business. Personally, I'm not there yet. If this is yet another late season collapse and it is followed by a missed tourney next season, I probably will be.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

MU82

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] The Grand Unified Theory of Wojo……
« Reply #52 on: February 25, 2020, 10:10:07 AM »
The point is you keep running out that we won't get a P6 coach with NCAA success like that's the only way we could do better.  3 of the last 4 coaches performed better than Wojo, and they didn't fit that criteria, so maybe cool it with that strawman.

It's not a strawman at all. Many, many, many Scoopers - perhaps not you, but many - seem to think we can lure a proven P6 coach with a history of NCAA tourney success to our school. Maybe those folks are right, even though we NEVER have.

As for your statement that 3 of the last 4 coaches performed better than Wojo, that's obviously true. KO, Crean and Buzz - like Wojo - were career assistants. Unlike Wojo, each had a variety of stops before arriving at MU - maybe that gave them perspective Wojo didn't have, and it could be something for our administration to keep in mind when they next need to hire a coach.

Each of those three also used MU as a stepping stone. Also, we've subsequently seen that KO has had a long history of burning out fairly quickly at every single stop. Additionally, we've seen that Crean has not been able to build consistently outstanding programs.

I still think it's a little early to say our administration "missed" in choosing Wojo. You disagree, and that's cool.

You also seem to think that the way to go is to jettison Wojo no matter what - which we both know isn't going to happen - and then start all over again with yet another coach who has never proven himself at the high-major level, hoping that we get it "right" next time. I am not quite there yet.
“The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty.”

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Silent Verbal

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] The Grand Unified Theory of Wojo……
« Reply #53 on: February 25, 2020, 10:32:49 AM »
It's not a strawman at all. Many, many, many Scoopers - perhaps not you, but many - seem to think we can lure a proven P6 coach with a history of NCAA tourney success to our school. Maybe those folks are right, even though we NEVER have.

As for your statement that 3 of the last 4 coaches performed better than Wojo, that's obviously true. KO, Crean and Buzz - like Wojo - were career assistants. Unlike Wojo, each had a variety of stops before arriving at MU - maybe that gave them perspective Wojo didn't have, and it could be something for our administration to keep in mind when they next need to hire a coach.

Each of those three also used MU as a stepping stone. Also, we've subsequently seen that KO has had a long history of burning out fairly quickly at every single stop. Additionally, we've seen that Crean has not been able to build consistently outstanding programs.

I still think it's a little early to say our administration "missed" in choosing Wojo. You disagree, and that's cool.

You also seem to think that the way to go is to jettison Wojo no matter what - which we both know isn't going to happen - and then start all over again with yet another coach who has never proven himself at the high-major level, hoping that we get it "right" next time. I am not quite there yet.

I wouldn’t even say “many” Scoopers think we can lure the type of coach you described, much less “many, many, many”.  I’d say about about the best we could hope for is a guy like TJ Otzelberger, who’s at a job that’s a little worse than MU and might want to come back home if the price was right.

To your point about KO, Crean, and Buzz using MU as a stepping stone, you’re right.  Wojo might also have used MU as a stepping stone, but he hasn’t had that opportunity due to his lack of any real success as a head coach.  And he might bolt after this season if his golden goose goes for 50 in the first round and gets him a tourney win.

Small Orange Soda

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] The Grand Unified Theory of Wojo……
« Reply #54 on: February 25, 2020, 10:33:39 AM »
It's not a strawman at all. Many, many, many Scoopers - perhaps not you, but many - seem to think we can lure a proven P6 coach with a history of NCAA tourney success to our school. Maybe those folks are right, even though we NEVER have.

As for your statement that 3 of the last 4 coaches performed better than Wojo, that's obviously true. KO, Crean and Buzz - like Wojo - were career assistants. Unlike Wojo, each had a variety of stops before arriving at MU - maybe that gave them perspective Wojo didn't have, and it could be something for our administration to keep in mind when they next need to hire a coach.

Each of those three also used MU as a stepping stone. Also, we've subsequently seen that KO has had a long history of burning out fairly quickly at every single stop. Additionally, we've seen that Crean has not been able to build consistently outstanding programs.

I still think it's a little early to say our administration "missed" in choosing Wojo. You disagree, and that's cool.

You also seem to think that the way to go is to jettison Wojo no matter what - which we both know isn't going to happen - and then start all over again with yet another coach who has never proven himself at the high-major level, hoping that we get it "right" next time. I am not quite there yet.

It's definitely a strawman, just like your insinuation that I feel we need to 'jettison Wojo no matter what', which I have absolutely not said.  You have a habit of batting down the most extreme take (WOJO IS THE WORST!  WE CAN GET A P6 COACH WITH NCAA SUCCESS) and then declaring yourself the winner of an argument nobody else is really having with you.  My only point was that we shouldn't be scared of not getting a P6 coach, because we obviously have had success without them.
"When you're the leader of a group or an organization, you hold your kids accountable but the main person you need to hold accountable is me."  -Wojo

TAMU Garcia

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Yeah, if you look at the coaches MU could have reasonably hired in 2014, it's hard to find one with a better record than Wojo to this point. Smart is flailing at Texas. Martin burned Cal to the ground and has now burned Mizzou to the ground. Howland is looking at finishing year 5 with only 1 NCAA tourney appearance. Hopkins had a good run with Romar's seniors in year 2 but is now sub .500 with two 5 star freshmen. Manning is about to be fired from Wake Forest. I used to say Florida's Mike White was one we could have gone after but after being pegged as a preseason top 5 team, they are now living the bubble life so maybe he's not the unicorn I thought he was, plus he's always been a southeastern guy so he may not have had the same recruiting success up here.

It is theoretically possible that MU hired the best possible candidate but also that the best candidate wasn't good enough to reach the levels of success we are hoping for.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

MU82

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] The Grand Unified Theory of Wojo……
« Reply #56 on: February 25, 2020, 10:43:14 AM »
I wouldn’t even say “many” Scoopers think we can lure the type of coach you described, much less “many, many, many”.  I’d say about about the best we could hope for is a guy like TJ Otzelberger, who’s at a job that’s a little worse than MU and might want to come back home if the price was right.

To your point about KO, Crean, and Buzz using MU as a stepping stone, you’re right.  Wojo might also have used MU as a stepping stone, but he hasn’t had that opportunity due to his lack of any real success as a head coach.  And he might bolt after this season if his golden goose goes for 50 in the first round and gets him a tourney win.

You might be right, both about me overstating the number of Scoopers who think we can get a proven P6 coach and about Otzelberger being the best we can do. Otzelberger has proven nothing, of course, but that doesn't mean he can't win big at Marquette or elsewhere. You also might be right about Wojo and stepping stones; we might know soon or we might never know.

It's definitely a strawman, just like your insinuation that I feel we need to 'jettison Wojo no matter what', which I have absolutely not said.  You have a habit of batting down the most extreme take (WOJO IS THE WORST!  WE CAN GET A P6 COACH WITH NCAA SUCCESS) and then declaring yourself the winner of an argument nobody else is really having with you.  My only point was that we shouldn't be scared of not getting a P6 coach, because we obviously have had success without them.

You don't think we should dump Wojo and go with somebody else? I apologize if I have misrepresented your opinion. Please remind me what it is again.

And I am not the least bit "scared of not getting a P6 coach," so that sure sounds like a strawman argument from you.
“The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty.”

-- James Madison

Small Orange Soda

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] The Grand Unified Theory of Wojo……
« Reply #57 on: February 25, 2020, 11:14:55 AM »
You don't think we should dump Wojo and go with somebody else? I apologize if I have misrepresented your opinion. Please remind me what it is again.

And I am not the least bit "scared of not getting a P6 coach," so that sure sounds like a strawman argument from you.

I don't believe Wojo should be fired.  I feel fine saying he's done enough to keep his job.  I also think it's five and a half years in and he doesn't have much to show for it, and that's disappointing.  I think the optimism about him making a big leap forward is wishful thinking without a large influx of talent.  He is what he is.

And since you're not 'scared' of not getting a P6 coach and very few, if any, posters are shouting that we absolutely will, then we can happily put that talking point to bed.
"When you're the leader of a group or an organization, you hold your kids accountable but the main person you need to hold accountable is me."  -Wojo

muguru

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Yeah, if you look at the coaches MU could have reasonably hired in 2014, it's hard to find one with a better record than Wojo to this point. Smart is flailing at Texas. Martin burned Cal to the ground and has now burned Mizzou to the ground. Howland is looking at finishing year 5 with only 1 NCAA tourney appearance. Hopkins had a good run with Romar's seniors in year 2 but is now sub .500 with two 5 star freshmen. Manning is about to be fired from Wake Forest. I used to say Florida's Mike White was one we could have gone after but after being pegged as a preseason top 5 team, they are now living the bubble life so maybe he's not the unicorn I thought he was, plus he's always been a southeastern guy so he may not have had the same recruiting success up here.

It is theoretically possible that MU hired the best possible candidate but also that the best candidate wasn't good enough to reach the levels of success we are hoping for.

This right here is the question that will likely never get answered...was it the best they could do?? Do we know that for sure?? Did they even bother to go "big game" hunting first, and make other Coaches say no?? There have been Coaches lured away from schools in college athletics to other schools that no one thought was possible, but they made them offers they can't refuse. I had people that would know tell me, MU never did that after the Shaka shun. That that was their pool of 3, and they never tried to hit a home run. In fact, they never even tried to hit higher than Shaka. EVERY good AD should call people about available jobs even if they think there's less than a 1% chance they say no. What is the harm?? The worst they say is no which you expected anyway..but what is...as you get to talking...there becomes a chance?? Unless you make the call, you never know, and this is where I think MU is lacking. Exhaust MANY options even if some are what others think might not be realistic. It is more important to get it right and know you did everything you possibly could to find the right candidate, then to just "settle". You can always go back to one of your "3" or 4 or whoever as a fall back option...they will always be there.
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

MU82

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] The Grand Unified Theory of Wojo……
« Reply #59 on: February 25, 2020, 03:38:42 PM »
I don't believe Wojo should be fired.  I feel fine saying he's done enough to keep his job.  I also think it's five and a half years in and he doesn't have much to show for it, and that's disappointing.  I think the optimism about him making a big leap forward is wishful thinking without a large influx of talent.  He is what he is.

And since you're not 'scared' of not getting a P6 coach and very few, if any, posters are shouting that we absolutely will, then we can happily put that talking point to bed.

SOS:

I apologize for misrepresenting your thoughts on Wojo's job status. I said earlier that I believed we had quite similar thoughts on much of this, and now it appears to be the case even more. Our main difference, it appears, is that I remain open-minded on Wojo's "ceiling." I believe he has gotten better as a coach and believe he can improve more. I sure hope I'm right, because it doesn't look like he's going anywhere, but I might be wrong.

As for what kind of coach we can get the next time there is an opening, I admit that my "many Scoopers" statement might have been influenced by the screaming of a few loud ones, such as the commenter right above this.

Have a good one.
“The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty.”

-- James Madison

mu03eng

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This right here is the question that will likely never get answered...was it the best they could do?? Do we know that for sure?? Did they even bother to go "big game" hunting first, and make other Coaches say no?? There have been Coaches lured away from schools in college athletics to other schools that no one thought was possible, but they made them offers they can't refuse. I had people that would know tell me, MU never did that after the Shaka shun. That that was their pool of 3, and they never tried to hit a home run. In fact, they never even tried to hit higher than Shaka. EVERY good AD should call people about available jobs even if they think there's less than a 1% chance they say no. What is the harm?? The worst they say is no which you expected anyway..but what is...as you get to talking...there becomes a chance?? Unless you make the call, you never know, and this is where I think MU is lacking. Exhaust MANY options even if some are what others think might not be realistic. It is more important to get it right and know you did everything you possibly could to find the right candidate, then to just "settle". You can always go back to one of your "3" or 4 or whoever as a fall back option...they will always be there.

A) They did go big game hunting pre-Shaka, and universally it was a nope.
B) Remember we did not have a permanent AD at the time and the timing of Lovell's hiring was based on the need to make Shaka feel better.....not ideal time to be hiring a coach so the fact that we ended up with the best of the bunch (in hindsight) is relatively impressive in my book.
C) Can you cite any examples of established coaches lured away from a school with a godfather offer like you claim?
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dgies9156

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To go back to the analysis, my concern with Wojo is less how we do in close games -- we have improved as the statistics show -- but how we perform in games we're supposed to win. Case in point is BOTH Providence games this year.

We should have swept the Friars, clear and simple. We're a better team and while you win some you should lose, you also shouldn't be losing much of the games you should win. We've been too inconsistent through much of the year and we're either deadly from three or it's anybody's game.

I'm unconvinced with Wojo. By that, I mean I don't think he should be shown the door, as I don't want to lose the recruiting momentum we have. But we need some really positive growth coming fast and we need to make use of the entire team, not the guards.

My jaundiced perspective:

1) When I see this team, my basic concern is we have a strong presence inside that we almost forget is there. Both Theo and Jayce are under-utilized offensively. Between the two of them, they probably should average 12 to 14 points a game. I'm a big fan of Brendan Bailey but you can't argue that he's all but disappeared for too much of this year. Jamal Cain is someone you never know what you're getting from one game to the next.

2) The world has learned how to defend Markus. I suspect is average PPG will fall as the days of the 30-point games probably are over. He's a great ballplayer and would be even greater if folks around him could pick up the slack when he's double-teamed.

3) Sacar Anim is someone I love  because we've watched him develop and he's probably overachieved. With rare exception, he won't carry you on his back.

4) Koby is the standard of inconsistency. What we saw against Purdue is someone who can take over a game. But like Brendan, he's disappeared and hasn't been what we hoped when it was announced he was coming here. I'm optimistic for next year with him, but there is a lot of work that must be done.

5) Greg's been injured for part of the year and Symir is a freshman. I'm hopeful Symir will be really something, but I thought the same thing about Koby.

The ceiling for this year is probably a "6" seed and perhaps one NCAA victory. The way our opponents are beating up on Markus is limiting what we can do. Unless Sacar and Koby can step up, we're done quick, sadly.

muguru

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To go back to the analysis, my concern with Wojo is less how we do in close games -- we have improved as the statistics show -- but how we perform in games we're supposed to win. Case in point is BOTH Providence games this year.

We should have swept the Friars, clear and simple. We're a better team and while you win some you should lose, you also shouldn't be losing much of the games you should win.
We've been too inconsistent through much of the year and we're either deadly from three or it's anybody's game.

I'm unconvinced with Wojo. By that, I mean I don't think he should be shown the door, as I don't want to lose the recruiting momentum we have. But we need some really positive growth coming fast and we need to make use of the entire team, not the guards.

My jaundiced perspective:

1) When I see this team, my basic concern is we have a strong presence inside that we almost forget is there. Both Theo and Jayce are under-utilized offensively. Between the two of them, they probably should average 12 to 14 points a game. I'm a big fan of Brendan Bailey but you can't argue that he's all but disappeared for too much of this year. Jamal Cain is someone you never know what you're getting from one game to the next.

2) The world has learned how to defend Markus. I suspect is average PPG will fall as the days of the 30-point games probably are over. He's a great ballplayer and would be even greater if folks around him could pick up the slack when he's double-teamed.

3) Sacar Anim is someone I love  because we've watched him develop and he's probably overachieved. With rare exception, he won't carry you on his back.

4) Koby is the standard of inconsistency. What we saw against Purdue is someone who can take over a game. But like Brendan, he's disappeared and hasn't been what we hoped when it was announced he was coming here. I'm optimistic for next year with him, but there is a lot of work that must be done.

5) Greg's been injured for part of the year and Symir is a freshman. I'm hopeful Symir will be really something, but I thought the same thing about Koby.

The ceiling for this year is probably a "6" seed and perhaps one NCAA victory. The way our opponents are beating up on Markus is limiting what we can do. Unless Sacar and Koby can step up, we're done quick, sadly.

*standing ovation* This just won the thread and it's not even close! You can say the Exact same thing about the @ Butler game as well. So even if you just put those 3 games in the "W" column and all other results stay the same how much different would things look?? All of a sudden you are 10-4 in the Big east instead of 7-7. It just comes down to doing what you are supposed to do.  Thank You dgies for TRYING to get people to see what's so glaringly obvious even if they don't want to admit it.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 04:54:58 PM by muguru »
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

brewcity77

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I'm sure Creighton, Seton Hall, and Butler thought they should've swept Providence too. They had a terrible non-con, but have been a top-25 team since the New Year and Torvik has them ranked 12th nationally in the past month. PC is finally playing like the team they were supposed to be. Other than maybe Kansas or Baylor, no one is "supposed" to beat them on their own court.

Class71

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In the generic sense absolutely, in the sense that we are trying to be realistic about how the MU BoT and Bill Scholl operates, naaawwww

Well we have identified the problem. As I have said, it will be years of struggle before action will be taken and then it will be a knee jerk reaction with likely the same result.
⛵⛵⛵⛵⛵

mu03eng

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A) They did go big game hunting pre-Shaka, and universally it was a nope.
B) Remember we did not have a permanent AD at the time and the timing of Lovell's hiring was based on the need to make Shaka feel better.....not ideal time to be hiring a coach so the fact that we ended up with the best of the bunch (in hindsight) is relatively impressive in my book.
C) Can you cite any examples of established coaches lured away from a school with a godfather offer like you claim?

Ahem, Guru
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dgies9156

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*standing ovation* This just won the thread and it's not even close! You can say the Exact same thing about the @ Butler game as well. So even if you just put those 3 games in the "W" column and all other results stay the same how much different would things look?? All of a sudden you are 10-4 in the Big east instead of 7-7. It just comes down to doing what you are supposed to do.  Thank You dgies for TRYING to get people to see what's so glaringly obvious even if they don't want to admit it.

Thank you Brother Guru!

As an avid Warrior fan, I want our guys to do well and I want Wojo to be COY! But the inconsistency is maddening. We try like the dickens everytime we play... our guys have a never quit mentality and they don't quit.

The real issue I see with our coach is that our team is a "guards" team. When I was young, there was a good-natured rivalry between the inside and outside players (which explains why Sam Bowie was drafted ahead of Michael Jordan). The game has changed a lot in the ensuing years and the outside players are more important than ever. But to be a complete team, you have to score from anywhere on the floor and involve your entire team. With rare exception, we don't.

The other thing is we're not patient. Again, there are exceptions (ahem... Purdue). But when we get down by 12 to 15 points, we start chucking so often that I have nightmares about it. That's what turns a close game into a blow-out.

In the end, basketball is not a titanic struggle between two teams. It's winning a lot of little battles all over the court, consistently and thoughtfully. We're not doing that and so our upside is limited.

jesmu84

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*standing ovation* This just won the thread and it's not even close! You can say the Exact same thing about the @ Butler game as well. So even if you just put those 3 games in the "W" column and all other results stay the same how much different would things look?? All of a sudden you are 10-4 in the Big east instead of 7-7. It just comes down to doing what you are supposed to do.  Thank You dgies for TRYING to get people to see what's so glaringly obvious even if they don't want to admit it.

Well, we weren't supposed to beat Villanova at home. So, 9-5.

brewcity77

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Okay, I went back through all 41 coaches that have made a Final Four since 2000. First, I apologize for the wonkiness of code boxes. Anyway...of those, it took the average coach 3.9 years to make it to the NCAA Tournament, 11.1 years to make the Final Four, and for the 14 coaches to win a National Title, the average time to the first title was 17.4 years.

I realize that as Final Four coaches, these are guys considered elite and we have no way of knowing if Wojo will ever get there, but of those 14 coaches that won a title only 3 made a Final Four in less time than Wojo has on the job currently. It will likely become 4 if Wojo doesn't make the Final Four this year (Donovan) but if you are looking to get to a Final Four, 56.1% of the coaches who reached a Final Four in the last 20 years didn't get there until they had 10+ years on the job. 85.7% of the national title winners didn't win their first title until they had 10+ years on the job.

Even more worth noting, 75.6% of the coaches to get to the Final Four did so after leaving their first D1 head coaching job. Quite possible that Wojo could be the next K, Wright, or Donovan, but won't realize the levels of success those guys are known for until after he's departed Marquette.

I have no idea what Wojo will grow into, but it's clear that by and large, it takes time to get to a Final Four, more time to win a national title, and usually multiple stops along the way. Do what you will with the data, feel free to expand on the research if someone else wants to look at NCAA wins or S16s or other less meaningful-than-a-Final-Four numbers.

Code: [Select]
Coach       Yrs>NCAA Yrs>F4 Yrs>NC Jobs>F4 Current Job
Bill Guthridge 1 1 (None) 1 (Retired)
Kevin Ollie 2 2 2 1 (Retired)
Shaka Smart 2 2 (None) 1 2
Mike Davis 1 2 (None) 1 4
Roy Williams 2 3 17 2 2
Brad Stevens 1 3 (None) 1 (Retired)
Chris Beard 1 4 (None) 2 2
Tom Izzo 3 4 5 1 1
Tom Crean 3 4 (None) 1 3
Billy Donovan 5 6 12 2 (Retired)
Thad Matta 1 6 (None) 3 (Retired)
J. Thompson III 1 7 (None) 2 (Retired)
Bruce Weber 4 7 (None) 2 3
Paul Hewitt 2 7 (None) 2 (Retired)
John Calipari 4 8 20 1 3
Rick Pitino 6 8 15 3 (Retired)
Bob Huggins 2 8 (None) 2 4
Eddie Sutton 5 9 (None) 2 (Retired)
Frank Martin 1 10 (None) 2 2
Jim Boeheim 1 11 27 1 1
Mike Krzyzewski 9 11 16 2 2
Ben Howland 4 11 (None) 3 4
Lute Olson 1 11 28 3 (Retired)
Lon Kruger 5 12 (None) 3 6
Tony Bennett 1 13 13 2 2
Porter Moser 14 14 (None)   3 3
Bruce Pearl 2 15 (None) 3 3
Jay Wright 6 15 22 2 2
Bill Self 6 15 15 4 4
Bo Ryan    3 15 (None) 2 (Retired)
Gregg Marshall 1 15 (None) 2 2
John Brady 9 15 (None) 2 (Retired)
Kelvin Sampson 7 15 (None) 2 4
Dick Bennett 6 15 (None) 2 (Retired)
Rick Barnes 2 16 (None) 4 5
Mark Few 1 18 (None) 1 1
Jim Larranaga 13 20 (None) 2 3
Jon Beilein 4 21 (None) 4 4
Gary Williams 5 23 24 4 (Retired)
Jim Calhoun 9 27 27 2 (Retired)
Dana Altman 4 28 (None) 4 4
Average #'s 3.9 11.1 17.4 2.2

BM1090

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Well, we weren't supposed to beat Villanova at home. So, 9-5.

We were favored in that game but underdogs @ Georgetown and @X which we won.

So far in BE play we've lost two games we were favored in (CU, PC) and won two games we were not favored in (@X, @ Georgetown). So we're actually right on track in that sense.

jesmu84

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Okay, I went back through all 41 coaches that have made a Final Four since 2000. First, I apologize for the wonkiness of code boxes. Anyway...of those, it took the average coach 3.9 years to make it to the NCAA Tournament, 11.1 years to make the Final Four, and for the 14 coaches to win a National Title, the average time to the first title was 17.4 years.

I realize that as Final Four coaches, these are guys considered elite and we have no way of knowing if Wojo will ever get there, but of those 14 coaches that won a title only 3 made a Final Four in less time than Wojo has on the job currently. It will likely become 4 if Wojo doesn't make the Final Four this year (Donovan) but if you are looking to get to a Final Four, 56.1% of the coaches who reached a Final Four in the last 20 years didn't get there until they had 10+ years on the job. 85.7% of the national title winners didn't win their first title until they had 10+ years on the job.

Even more worth noting, 75.6% of the coaches to get to the Final Four did so after leaving their first D1 head coaching job. Quite possible that Wojo could be the next K, Wright, or Donovan, but won't realize the levels of success those guys are known for until after he's departed Marquette.

I have no idea what Wojo will grow into, but it's clear that by and large, it takes time to get to a Final Four, more time to win a national title, and usually multiple stops along the way. Do what you will with the data, feel free to expand on the research if someone else wants to look at NCAA wins or S16s or other less meaningful-than-a-Final-Four numbers.

Code: [Select]
Coach       Yrs>NCAA Yrs>F4 Yrs>NC Jobs>F4 Current Job
Bill Guthridge 1 1 (None) 1 (Retired)
Kevin Ollie 2 2 2 1 (Retired)
Shaka Smart 2 2 (None) 1 2
Mike Davis 1 2 (None) 1 4
Roy Williams 2 3 17 2 2
Brad Stevens 1 3 (None) 1 (Retired)
Chris Beard 1 4 (None) 2 2
Tom Izzo 3 4 5 1 1
Tom Crean 3 4 (None) 1 3
Billy Donovan 5 6 12 2 (Retired)
Thad Matta 1 6 (None) 3 (Retired)
J. Thompson III 1 7 (None) 2 (Retired)
Bruce Weber 4 7 (None) 2 3
Paul Hewitt 2 7 (None) 2 (Retired)
John Calipari 4 8 20 1 3
Rick Pitino 6 8 15 3 (Retired)
Bob Huggins 2 8 (None) 2 4
Eddie Sutton 5 9 (None) 2 (Retired)
Frank Martin 1 10 (None) 2 2
Jim Boeheim 1 11 27 1 1
Mike Krzyzewski 9 11 16 2 2
Ben Howland 4 11 (None) 3 4
Lute Olson 1 11 28 3 (Retired)
Lon Kruger 5 12 (None) 3 6
Tony Bennett 1 13 13 2 2
Porter Moser 14 14 (None)   3 3
Bruce Pearl 2 15 (None) 3 3
Jay Wright 6 15 22 2 2
Bill Self 6 15 15 4 4
Bo Ryan    3 15 (None) 2 (Retired)
Gregg Marshall 1 15 (None) 2 2
John Brady 9 15 (None) 2 (Retired)
Kelvin Sampson 7 15 (None) 2 4
Dick Bennett 6 15 (None) 2 (Retired)
Rick Barnes 2 16 (None) 4 5
Mark Few 1 18 (None) 1 1
Jim Larranaga 13 20 (None) 2 3
Jon Beilein 4 21 (None) 4 4
Gary Williams 5 23 24 4 (Retired)
Jim Calhoun 9 27 27 2 (Retired)
Dana Altman 4 28 (None) 4 4
Average #'s 3.9 11.1 17.4 2.2

Thanks for this.

Can you go one step further and evaluate those that made the FF or won the championship, what the percentages look like for return visits to that level or how long it takes to get back?

dgies9156

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Thanks for this.

Can you go one step further and evaluate those that made the FF or won the championship, what the percentages look like for return visits to that level or how long it takes to get back?

Let's use the nearest and dearest example to us all:  AL!

He was hired for the 1964-1965 season. That first year, we were abysmal. Al made the NCAA tournament for the first time in 1967-1968 and we were promptly blown out by the University of Kentucky and Adolph the Bigot. In today's world, the 1966-1967 team probably would have been an NCAA team as well.

The 1968-1969 team made the regional final and was a free throw away from the Final Four. We then won the NIT and then proceeded to lose various regional games in the NCAA between 1971 and 1974. No doubt part of the early 1970s failures was caused by the decision of Jim Chones, with Al's endorsement, to turn pro.

Al made the Final Four for the first time in 1973-1974, his 10th year at Marquette.

Al won the national title in 1976-1977, his 13th year at Marquette and three years after his initial FF appearance.

One can argue that we had enough talent to get to the Final Four through much of the 1970s. But things just don't happen the way we want -- such as the disaster in 1978.

« Last Edit: February 26, 2020, 01:10:37 PM by dgies9156 »

MU82

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Let's use the nearest and dearest example to us all:  AL!

He was hired for the 1964-1965 season. That first year, we were abysmal. Al made the NCAA tournament for the first time in 1967-1968 and we were promptly blown out by the University of Kentucky and Adolph the Bigot. In today's world, the 1966-1967 team probably would have been an NCAA team as well.

The 1968-1969 team made the regional final and was a free throw away from the Final Four. We then won the NIT and then proceeded to lose various regional games in the NCAA between 1971 and 1974. No doubt part of the early 1970s failures was caused by the decision of Jim Chones, with Al's endorsement, to turn pro.

Al made the Final Four for the first time in 1973-1974, his 10th year at Marquette.

Al won the national title in 1976-1977, his 13th year at Marquette and three years after his initial FF appearance.

One can argue that we had enough talent to get to the Final Four through much of the 1970s. But things just don't happen the way we want -- such as the disaster in 1978.

Fire Al ... posthumously!
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Uncle Rico

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Fire Al ... posthumously!

Scoop, circa February 1977

- the game has passed him by
- the final four was great but that was 3 years ago
- what other coach would get kicked out of a regional final, he’s lost it
- Chonesgate doesn’t sit well with me
Cooler.  20 Days.

oldwarrior81

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Scoop, circa February 1977

- the game has passed him by
- the final four was great but that was 3 years ago
- what other coach would get kicked out of a regional final, he’s lost it
- Chonesgate doesn’t sit well with me

...and after we fire this jokester McGuire, we ought to really take a close look at that guy Vitale in Detroit.   He's got Detroit into the top 20.  He looks like he's really going places.   

 

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