MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: mu03eng on February 24, 2020, 12:37:12 PM
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The team and Wojo are flawed, is all hope lost?
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/02/the-grand-unified-theory-of-wojoor-why.html (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/02/the-grand-unified-theory-of-wojoor-why.html)
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Whoa! I thought you only knew how to use a microphone!?
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Whoa! I thought you only knew how to use a microphone!?
Clearly you aren't read or listening....I don't know how to do either thing ;D ;)
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You know we don't pay by the word, right?
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I'm glad I hung in until the end...I hope my data's right!
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Good article. It may only help your own set of beliefs, but at least you get to relax now!
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You know we don't pay by the word, right?
I've never been the soul of brevity, that's for sure.
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Good article and good reason to keep him around for a while longer.
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You realize this is only going to change the narrative from "Can't win big games" to "Isn't prepared for big games". That will result in the hypothesis that Wojo has lost more games by 10+ points than any coach in recent history....
Edit: I failed to say, awesome post that was backed up by facts and not pure conjecture, emotion, and hyperbole.
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You realize this is only going to change the narrative from "Can't win big games" to "Isn't prepared for big games". That will result in the hypothesis that Wojo has lost more games by 10+ points than any coach in recent history....
But, he tried to get the PC game to under 10...
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Wow, Phil, that was some post! Lotsa interesting stats and eye-opening data. Thanks for taking the time to compile all of that.
Your conclusion included the following:
We can argue all we want about Wojo’s mistakes, his failures, and his lack of public persona but what I don’t think we can argue is that Wojo is getting better every year as a coach. I have no doubt that some of that is due to improving talent on the roster, but if Wojo isn’t responsible for that I don’t know who is.
A few things ...
1. Many Scoopers would argue quite forcefully that Wojo is NOT getting better every year as a coach. They'd be wrong because the facts say otherwise, but that wouldn't stop them from arguing it.
2. Many Scoopers would claim that Stan or Killings or anybody except Wojo is responsible for the talent on the roster. These folks don't even like to acknowledge that Wojo is responsible for Stan and the other assistants being at Marquette.
3. Any statistics suggesting that Wojo has done a good job in clutch situations fail the "eye test." And, of course, any eye test suggesting that Wojo has done a good job fails some set of stats that Nojos can cherry-pick. So nice try, Phil!
4. (BONUS) Of the numerous players who have improved, many Scoopers contend it has happened despite Wojo - the players already were gifted and/or they were just making the kind of logical, gradual progress any player would make under any coach; for those who haven't improved much, it's 100% on Wojo.
Although I obviously wish we would win more, and you obviously wish we would win more, we both are relatively optimistic and patient.
Therefore, we are doomed to get shouted down by the "Wojo must go!" faction. But that's life on interwebs fan sites.
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"Lies, damned lies, and statistics".
A very meaningful quote that statisticians appreciate. Statistics, when applied properly are helpful. Otherwise ...
As a side we paid someone $2,000,000/year to learn on the job. So after six years how is the return on that $12,000,000 investment? Sounds like folks are satisfied because Wojo is improving based on your measures. Given this insight how many more years before we become a top contender or are we there already?
I prefer not to lower the bar.
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"Lies, damned lies, and statistics".
A very meaningful quote that statisticians appreciate. Statistics, when applied properly are helpful. Otherwise ...
As a side we paid someone $2,000,000/year to learn on the job. So after six years how is the return on that $12,000,000 investment? Sounds like folks are satisfied because Wojo is improving based on your measures. Given this insight how many more years before we become a top contender or are we there already?
I prefer not to lower the bar.
You know, even though I "lean Projo" (and it appears you don't), I find this comment very reasonable.
If the college football coach recruits only bad QBs, and the QB plays badly, whose fault is it? Often, the QB gets crapped on, but it's really on the coach.
Similarly, if Wojo really does suck, as many Scoopers believe, that's largely on those who brought him in and who continue to support him.
Now, of course, it doesn't acknowledge the relative lack of spectacularosity of the others who were available at the time - Mrs. Shaka's husband, UCLA retread Howland, stepping-stoner Cuonzo, and the like - but it's a reasonable point to suggest that MU has not gotten a wonderful investment on its millions.
MU hired a guy who, by definition (because he had never been a head coach at any level), would have to learn on the job. That's not on Wojo, it's on his bosses.
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"Lies, damned lies, and statistics".
A very meaningful quote that statisticians appreciate. Statistics, when applied properly are helpful. Otherwise ...
As a side we paid someone $2,000,000/year to learn on the job. So after six years how is the return on that $12,000,000 investment? Sounds like folks are satisfied because Wojo is improving based on your measures. Given this insight how many more years before we become a top contender or are we there already?
I prefer not to lower the bar.
Hosanna. Wojo needs 10 more years to evaluate
Forsnt matter if nobody else gets that lengthy of a leash.
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Wow, Phil, that was some post! Lotsa interesting stats and eye-opening data. Thanks for taking the time to compile all of that.
Your conclusion included the following:
We can argue all we want about Wojo’s mistakes, his failures, and his lack of public persona but what I don’t think we can argue is that Wojo is getting better every year as a coach. I have no doubt that some of that is due to improving talent on the roster, but if Wojo isn’t responsible for that I don’t know who is.
A few things ...
1. Many Scoopers would argue quite forcefully that Wojo is NOT getting better every year as a coach. They'd be wrong because the facts say otherwise, but that wouldn't stop them from arguing it.
2. Many Scoopers would claim that Stan or Killings or anybody except Wojo is responsible for the talent on the roster. These folks don't even like to acknowledge that Wojo is responsible for Stan and the other assistants being at Marquette.
3. Any statistics suggesting that Wojo has done a good job in clutch situations fail the "eye test." And, of course, any eye test suggesting that Wojo has done a good job fails some set of stats that Nojos can cherry-pick. So nice try, Phil!
4. (BONUS) Of the numerous players who have improved, many Scoopers contend it has happened despite Wojo - the players already were gifted and/or they were just making the kind of logical, gradual progress any player would make under any coach; for those who haven't improved much, it's 100% on Wojo.
Although I obviously wish we would win more, and you obviously wish we would win more, we both are relatively optimistic and patient.
Therefore, we are doomed to get shouted down by the "Wojo must go!" faction. But that's life on interwebs fan sites.
I mean he’s improving in the ways anyone will improve at anything they do over an extended period of time. Conversely I can’t point to anything as evidence of significant improvement, but that’s just my perspective.
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You know, even though I "lean Projo" (and it appears you don't), I find this comment very reasonable.
If the college football coach recruits only bad QBs, and the QB plays badly, whose fault is it? Often, the QB gets crapped on, but it's really on the coach.
Similarly, if Wojo really does suck, as many Scoopers believe, that's largely on those who brought him in and who continue to support him.
Now, of course, it doesn't acknowledge the relative lack of spectacularosity of the others who were available at the time - Mrs. Shaka's husband, UCLA retread Howland, stepping-stoner Cuonzo, and the like - but it's a reasonable point to suggest that MU has not gotten a wonderful investment on its millions.
MU hired a guy who, by definition (because he had never been a head coach at any level), would have to learn on the job. That's not on Wojo, it's on his bosses.
I agree with your comments.
Wojo and Buzz were both unproven when hired. Wojo meets the needs of the front office while Buzz did not. Buzz was a winner Wojo ... ???
I firmly believe Wojo has some very good qualities and and it appears he can generally recruit well. Unfortunately he has significant weaknesses. I was critical of the management when he was hired as I was when Buzz was hired. My expectation is, for the money we offer, there should be a better track record of the candidate that is selected. That should increase the likelihood of success.
Remember this same management will decide if Wojo stays or leaves. My assessment is he will stay for some years to come and we and more importantly the players and the school will likely suffer accordingly.
If not I am happily wrong.
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The team and Wojo are flawed, is all hope lost?
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/02/the-grand-unified-theory-of-wojoor-why.html (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/02/the-grand-unified-theory-of-wojoor-why.html)
Every team is flawed as is every coach.
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I agree with your comments.
Wojo and Buzz were both unproven when hired. Wojo meets the needs of the front office while Buzz did not. Buzz was a winner Wojo ... ???
I firmly believe Wojo has some very good qualities and and it appears he can generally recruit well. Unfortunately he has significant weaknesses. I was critical of the management when he was hired as I was when Buzz was hired. My expectation is, for the money we offer, there should be a better track record of the candidate that is selected. That should increase the likelihood of success.
Remember this same management will decide if Wojo stays or leaves. My assessment is he will stay for some years to come and we and more importantly the players and the school will likely suffer accordingly.
If not I am happily wrong.
Curious, C71, which coach did you think we should have hired back then?
If the choice was Mrs. Shaka's husband, as it was for most of us, who was your choice once Da Missus said she didn't like frozen custard and bubblers?
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This is meant to be an honest(not smart ass question)....some people here talk so much about "trend lines" then pick and choose what data they want to use to suit their narrative. Well, This year MU won't finish as high in the conference as they did last year, and next year COULD(yet to be determined), be worse than this year...so wouldn't that then mean a downward trend?? Or is that not the data we will choose to use for any number of reasons?? To me, if you have one year of say a 2nd place finish, the next year is a 5th place finish(for example), and the year after that is a 7th place finish, that can't be anything but a downward trend. Or...are we being forgiving because of whatever excuses we want to use(the Hausers leaving etc)?? I'm asking in all honesty here.
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Curious, C71, which coach did you think we should have hired back then?
If the choice was Mrs. Shaka's husband, as it was for most of us, who was your choice once Da Missus said she didn't like frozen custard and bubblers?
Who cares? That was six years ago. If Wojo leaves, do we have to pick from Shaka, Howland, and Cuonzo again?
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This is meant to be an honest(not smart ass question)....some people here talk so much about "trend lines" then pick and choose what data they want to use to suit their narrative. Well, This year MU won't finish as high in the conference as they did last year, and next year COULD(yet to be determined), be worse than this year...so wouldn't that then mean a downward trend?? Or is that not the data we will choose to use for any number of reasons?? To me, if you have one year of say a 2nd place finish, the next year is a 5th place finish(for example), and the year after that is a 7th place finish, that can't be anything but a downward trend. Or...are we being forgiving because of whatever excuses we want to use(the Hausers leaving etc)?? I'm asking in all honesty here.
Personally I look at Kenpom ranking and even though yes, it's a crapshoot, tournament success. The Big East is much stronger this year so our conference finish is lower, but we rank higher relative to the rest of CBB. If we finish higher than 32 on Kenpom that's 3 consecutive years our ranking improved. That, plus a tournament win shows a clear upward trajectory.
If we finish around 32 and don't win a tourney game, then it seems we've plateaued a bit. Not treading downward.
I also try to look at it in recruiting cycle chunks like TAMU mentioned. Wojo's first 3 years we finished 93, 97, 32. The next three years were 53, 33, 29 (with games to play). Clear improvement
I'd expect the next three years to improve on that. Something like 40, 20, 15. Also need some level of accomplishment when it comes to conference titles, BET titles, S16 runs, etc.
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Who cares? That was six years ago. If Wojo leaves, do we have to pick from Shaka, Howland, and Cuonzo again?
No, it’ll be an assistant coach or mid-major. Retread is a possibility. For me, it’s Tony Bennett or bust
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Personally I look at Kenpom ranking and even though yes, it's a crapshoot, tournament success. The Big East is much stronger this year so our conference finish is lower, but we rank higher relative to the rest of CBB. If we finish higher than 32 on Kenpom that's 3 consecutive years our ranking improved. That, plus a tournament win shows a clear upward trajectory.
If we finish around 32 and don't win a tourney game, then it seems we've plateaued a bit. Not treading downward.
I also try to look at it in recruiting cycle chunks like TAMU mentioned. Wojo's first 3 years we finished 93, 97, 32. The next three years were 53, 33, 29 (with games to play). Clear improvement
I'd expect the next three years to improve on that. Something like 40, 20, 15. Also need some level of accomplishment when it comes to conference titles, BET titles, S16 runs, etc.
This is what I personally need to see, to give me some semblance of hope that the program is going in the right direction. Otherwise to me it's just spinning it's wheels, staying relatively the same, with maybe some minor improvements year to year.
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This is meant to be an honest(not smart ass question)....some people here talk so much about "trend lines" then pick and choose what data they want to use to suit their narrative. Well, This year MU won't finish as high in the conference as they did last year, and next year COULD(yet to be determined), be worse than this year...so wouldn't that then mean a downward trend?? Or is that not the data we will choose to use for any number of reasons?? To me, if you have one year of say a 2nd place finish, the next year is a 5th place finish(for example), and the year after that is a 7th place finish, that can't be anything but a downward trend. Or...are we being forgiving because of whatever excuses we want to use(the Hausers leaving etc)?? I'm asking in all honesty here.
Fair questions, guru.
I am already on record as saying that if we collapse this season and then don't make the tournament next season, I will join those saying it will be time to bid adieu to Wojo. (Barring something unforeseen, such as a bunch of key injuries.)
I hate the idea that some of our top young players might follow him out the door if the new coach can't convince them to stay, but that's how I feel.
People are writing off this season, but to me the grade right now is "Incomplete."
Let's say we finish the regular season 3-1, followed by 1-1 in the BET, get a 5-6 seed and advance to the Sweet 16 before losing in the 3rd round. We will have finished 23-12 with a second-weekend run. I know some might consider that "accepting mediocrity" (weird definition of mediocrity, but whatevs), but to me that would be a step forward. Not only would it deservedly buy him more time IMHO, it might even get him another contract extension (which would make some Scoopers' brains explode).
Now, let's say we finish 2-2, followed by immediate losses in the BET and NCAA tourney for a 19-13 record. For me, that would be a step backward and would put him on the clock. Miss the tourney next year, and adios.
Of course, it doesn't really matter whether either of us has Wojo "on the clock," as neither of us has a say on his status as Marquette coach. One thing I have learned over my years on this earth is that one of the keys to happiness and balance is to avoid worrying too much about crapola I can't control.
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Curious, C71, which coach did you think we should have hired back then?
If the choice was Mrs. Shaka's husband, as it was for most of us, who was your choice once Da Missus said she didn't like frozen custard and bubblers?
I had the same choice that most of us had and he had his fair share of bumps. I agree we had few/no other acceptable choices.
I think the bigger question is why does Marquette have so few choices? Pay appears not to be the problem. Facilities are excellent. Weather is out of our control but many mid western schools have the same issue. So the question is why?
Also I do not expect this management to take action. This highlights another issue. I understand why, in this case, I just disagree with their decision to continue to extend contacts. We should be looking on an ongoing basis and when someone outstanding becomes available we go for it. Do we not do the same with the players we recruit? How many offers are out there for players, how many get little to no playing time and are given little choice if they do not work out? Should we hold coaches to the same standard coaches use with players? We give players a red shirt to develop. That is one year. How many years do we give a coach? Agree more than 1 or 2 but how many more past 6?
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This is meant to be an honest(not smart ass question)....some people here talk so much about "trend lines" then pick and choose what data they want to use to suit their narrative. Well, This year MU won't finish as high in the conference as they did last year, and next year COULD(yet to be determined), be worse than this year...so wouldn't that then mean a downward trend?? Or is that not the data we will choose to use for any number of reasons?? To me, if you have one year of say a 2nd place finish, the next year is a 5th place finish(for example), and the year after that is a 7th place finish, that can't be anything but a downward trend. Or...are we being forgiving because of whatever excuses we want to use(the Hausers leaving etc)?? I'm asking in all honesty here.
Where your thinking is flawed is that a team my be trending up from an analytics standpoint but relative to the rest of the teams in a conference may not have trend up as much that year as other teams did. The difference between a 2nd place finish and a 6th place finish in the Big East can be one game won or lost so equating conference finish in the regular season to a "trend" isn't really representative. It's not nothing, but it's also non-indicative of improvement or lack thereof.
Now if the conference standing keeps getting worse every year, yes that's a trend but we have no way to project that going forward so it's kind of a wasted exercise.
The point of the analysis in this article was to isolate Wojo's performance relative to two things: early career performance to late career performance(measuring himself against himself) and then measuring his performance versus a group of high quality coaches to see where his overall performance falls.
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You realize this is only going to change the narrative from "Can't win big games" to "Isn't prepared for big games". That will result in the hypothesis that Wojo has lost more games by 10+ points than any coach in recent history....
Edit: I failed to say, awesome post that was backed up by facts and not pure conjecture, emotion, and hyperbole.
Good note, and thanks to you and others on Twitter I'm already working on the data collection for the hypothesis of "Wojo is more non-competitive in games than most coaches".
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"Lies, damned lies, and statistics".
A very meaningful quote that statisticians appreciate. Statistics, when applied properly are helpful. Otherwise ...
As a side we paid someone $2,000,000/year to learn on the job. So after six years how is the return on that $12,000,000 investment? Sounds like folks are satisfied because Wojo is improving based on your measures. Given this insight how many more years before we become a top contender or are we there already?
I prefer not to lower the bar.
I tend to agree, but that's why I selected a control group of good to great coaches. The analysis needs to continue but the data seems to point to an improving coach which "should" pay off at some point. The question to ask is, if Wojo is indeed improving will he improve enough that the $2M a year becomes worth it and/or a steal versus starting over with a new coach that may or may not have the same learning curve and may or may not have a higher ceiling.
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Who cares? That was six years ago. If Wojo leaves, do we have to pick from Shaka, Howland, and Cuonzo again?
First, I wasn't talking to you. Second, I said I was curious to hear C71's point of view. If you're not interested, move along.
But to answer your question ...
Yes, we again probably will be picking from a list that includes: "young, gotta-have, mid-major coach" ... "older retread with skeletons in closet" ... "good recruiter with meh record who would use Marquette as stepping-stone." Oh, and mustn't forget "long-time assistant at top-tier program."
I know there are some who believe we would be able to attract an established P6 coach with a multiple-year history of NCAA tournament success, but given that we've never, ever, EVER hired one of those, I have my doubts. If we're lucky, we'd land the next Chris Beard ... though if we hire a guy whose resume is as similarly thin, MU's administration would immediately get ripped by Scoop's most geniusy geniuses.
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I had the same choice that most of us had and he had his fair share of bumps. I agree we had few/no other acceptable choices.
I think the bigger question is why does Marquette have so few choices? Pay appears not to be the problem. Facilities are excellent. Weather is out of our control but many mid western schools have the same issue. So the question is why?
Also I do not expect this management to take action. This highlights another issue. I understand why, in this case, I just disagree with their decision to continue to extend contacts. We should be looking on an ongoing basis and when someone outstanding becomes available we go for it. Do we not do the same with the players we recruit? How many offers are out there for players, how many get little to no playing time and are given little choice if they do not work out? Should we hold coaches to the same standard coaches use with players? We give players a red shirt to develop. That is one year. How many years do we give a coach? Agree more than 1 or 2 but how many more past 6?
Coaching hires are in the context of the year in which the opening occurs. When Buzz left there weren't a ton of desirable retreads or up and coming assistants. If Wojo is fired after this season, there may be more coaches available with talent then when Buzz left, but there may not be.
I'm supportive of keeping Wojo in such that he is good enough/improving that I think he'll pay off but if some "sure fire" coach has mutual interest with MU I'd be fine dumping Wojo and going with the new coach. Call it better one in the hand than two in the bush theory of coach hiring (please proceed Ziggy to go as dirty as you'd like with this statement).
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First, I wasn't talking to you. Second, I said I was curious to hear C71's point of view. If you're not interested, move along.
But to answer your question ...
Yes, we again probably will be picking from a list that includes: "young, gotta-have, mid-major coach" ... "older retread with skeletons in closet" ... "good recruiter with meh record who would use Marquette as stepping-stone." Oh, and mustn't forget "long-time assistant at top-tier program."
I know there are some who believe we would be able to attract an established P6 coach with a multiple-year history of NCAA tournament success, but given that we've never, ever, EVER hired one of those, I have my doubts. If we're lucky, we'd land the next Chris Beard ... though if we hire a guy whose resume is as similarly thin, MU's administration would immediately get ripped by Scoop's most geniusy geniuses.
Not only have MU never, ever hired someone like that....outside of the blue bloods it is extremely rare to hire an established HC from one P6 school to another. Buzz is one of the obvious exceptions but there were all sorts of reasons for that outside of the norm.
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I had the same choice that most of us had and he had his fair share of bumps. I agree we had few/no other acceptable choices.
I think the bigger question is why does Marquette have so few choices? Pay appears not to be the problem. Facilities are excellent. Weather is out of our control but many mid western schools have the same issue. So the question is why?
Also I do not expect this management to take action. This highlights another issue. I understand why, in this case, I just disagree with their decision to continue to extend contacts. We should be looking on an ongoing basis and when someone outstanding becomes available we go for it. Do we not do the same with the players we recruit? How many offers are out there for players, how many get little to no playing time and are given little choice if they do not work out? Should we hold coaches to the same standard coaches use with players? We give players a red shirt to develop. That is one year. How many years do we give a coach? Agree more than 1 or 2 but how many more past 6?
Thanks for answering, C71.
As for your question ...
I think the bigger question is why does Marquette have so few choices? Pay appears not to be the problem. Facilities are excellent. Weather is out of our control but many mid western schools have the same issue. So the question is why?
... please see my answer to Soda above.
Look across the entire Big East over the last many years. One could argue that the only school to hire an established P6 coach with a multiple-year history of NCAA tournament was St. John's when they got Lavin ... and he was a retread who had been out of coaching for 7 years and was considered damaged goods.
Why? Because.
Kansas can lure Self from Illinois, Kentucky can lure Calipari from Memphis and Michigan can lure Beilein from West Virginia. But until I start seeing any Big East school - including Marquette - land an active P5 coach who has a multiple-year history of NCAA tournament success, it's hard for me to believe it's possible.
As for the decision to extend a college coach's contract ... you either have to do it or you have to fire him. If your coach only has a year or two left on his contract, you might as well tell recruits, "We don't believe in him." That's simply the way it is.
Again, I appreciate the discussion, and I definitely appreciate you being a Marquette fan who cares deeply, as do I.
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This article and accompanying data is not for the entitled fan.
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First, I wasn't talking to you. Second, I said I was curious to hear C71's point of view. If you're not interested, move along.
But to answer your question ...
Yes, we again probably will be picking from a list that includes: "young, gotta-have, mid-major coach" ... "older retread with skeletons in closet" ... "good recruiter with meh record who would use Marquette as stepping-stone." Oh, and mustn't forget "long-time assistant at top-tier program."
I know there are some who believe we would be able to attract an established P6 coach with a multiple-year history of NCAA tournament success, but given that we've never, ever, EVER hired one of those, I have my doubts. If we're lucky, we'd land the next Chris Beard ... though if we hire a guy whose resume is as similarly thin, MU's administration would immediately get ripped by Scoop's most geniusy geniuses.
I see people refer to posters 'who believe we would be able to attract an established P6 coach with a multiple-year history of NCAA tournament success' a lot more than I actually see said posters. Rational people are aware that's not the pool Marquette will be swimming in. They could hire someone worse, but they could also hire someone better. They have in the past.
And if people on Scoop rip the admin for a hire, then again, who cares? I doubt Buzz could've gotten a HC interview at a P6 school when we hired him. Then he won so people quieted down.
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Coaching hires are in the context of the year in which the opening occurs. When Buzz left there weren't a ton of desirable retreads or up and coming assistants. If Wojo is fired after this season, there may be more coaches available with talent then when Buzz left, but there may not be.
I'm supportive of keeping Wojo in such that he is good enough/improving that I think he'll pay off but if some "sure fire" coach has mutual interest with MU I'd be fine dumping Wojo and going with the new coach. Call it better one in the hand than two in the bush theory of coach hiring (please proceed Ziggy to go as dirty as you'd like with this statement).
Is there some reason that we can not look before we fire? If the field is weak stay with a known. If not pull the plug.
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Is there some reason that we can not look before we fire? If the field is weak stay with a known. If not pull the plug.
In the generic sense absolutely, in the sense that we are trying to be realistic about how the MU BoT and Bill Scholl operates, naaawwww
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Eng,
You make fun of your rambling but it is like a fine wine that has a full bouquet but it takes time to develop with age. That fact is, your blog piece factually lays out every Scoop Crazytown Thread in one place and addresses it head on.
End of the day, MU has a chance to finish here positively. A little adversity often can bring a team together.
With the late transfer, the Hausers' value was never going to replaced. However, the Scoop Intelligencia said MU could replace their value add via a "It Takes a Village Mentality" like the Moneyball A's. MU has been very good when they do but are very pedestrian when it's "All MH All the Time". We can have Cain value add over Bailey and win or in reverse, but if Cain and Bailey are MIA it's curtains.
MH as the star gets the grief like an NFL QB in tough times, but Sacar, BB and Koby with zero points collectively in a half ain't going to get it done. Just win, baby!
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I see people refer to posters 'who believe we would be able to attract an established P6 coach with a multiple-year history of NCAA tournament success' a lot more than I actually see said posters. Rational people are aware that's not the pool Marquette will be swimming in. They could hire someone worse, but they could also hire someone better. They have in the past.
And if people on Scoop rip the admin for a hire, then again, who cares? I doubt Buzz could've gotten a HC interview at a P6 school when we hired him. Then he won so people quieted down.
I think, after reading this post, that you and I generally agree: We could hire somebody better or worse than Wojo. (Of course, most would agree with this except those who would say NOBODY could possibly be worse than the evil Wojo.)
I'd add ...
But we likely wouldn't know for years whether the next hire is better or worse than Wojo, especially if all or most of the best players bolt.
Yessir, Soda, it would be great to find the guy who happens to turn out to be the next Buzz, especially if he could do it while operating under the guidelines the current administration has established.
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Are expectations as high as they have ever been to see what Wojo would do once he got "his guys" in place? Yes.
Ultimately being a fan of a team means going through really tough stretches. For those that want "success" and seeing their team win every night, college basketball is not the sport to be a fan of. Ive come to that realization after getting hurt by MUBB during the rough times after investing a lot in a sport I have no control over. However, its fun to watch close games and its somewhat fun to get irritated and annoyed when your team doesnt win. Beyond that, I see no point in complaining unless you directly donate to the program. In which case, I guess you are more than free to stop donating.
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Are expectations as high as they have ever been to see what Wojo would do once he got "his guys" in place? Yes.
Ultimately being a fan of a team means going through really tough stretches. For those that want "success" and seeing their team win every night, college basketball is not the sport to be a fan of. Ive come to that realization after getting hurt by MUBB during the rough times after investing a lot in a sport I have no control over. However, its fun to watch close games and its somewhat fun to get irritated and annoyed when your team doesnt win. Beyond that, I see no point in complaining unless you directly donate to the program. In which case, I guess you are more than free to stop donating.
This is pretty much where I am, too.
I care about Marquette hoops. I very much want us to win every game, and I go into every game expecting us to win when we have a team that's good enough to compete (as is the case this season). But I am realistic enough to know that we won't win every game, and I am long past the point of throwing things, screaming, letting a loss ruin the rest of my week or letting a sad ending to a season ruin the rest of my spring (and beyond).
My daughter and son-in-law were visiting from Seattle over the weekend. We watched the Providence game. I agonized a few times, and I actually got up and left the room for a minute after the frustrating sequence that included the bad kicked-ball call and some bad play by MU.
But the game ended, I said "Damn," and then we went out to some breweries, had some fantastic craft beer, had a wonderful dinner, built a fire in our fire pit and enjoyed each others' company.
I hated the loss. But it wasn't gonna have any lasting effect on anything that's really important.
Here's to life!
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This analysis of record against the top 25 should be stated as against the FINAL top 25 kenpom. The problem with it is when you beat teams that are in the 20's, they tend to fall out so you end up hurting your own record when you do it. A classic example is two years ago we beat Seton Hall twice...they ended up 26th. On at least one of those occasions, they were rated higher when we beat them.
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This analysis of record against the top 25 should be stated as against the FINAL top 25 kenpom. The problem with it is when you beat teams that are in the 20's, they tend to fall out so you end up hurting your own record when you do it. A classic example is two years ago we beat Seton Hall twice...they ended up 26th. On at least one of those occasions, they were rated higher when we beat them.
That's why it's one of many metrics, but the point remains that MU does not beat really good teams with any kind of regularity.
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Good article and good reason to keep him around for a while longer.
Nah, it's time to put mu03eng out to pasture before he hurts his brain and it has to come out.
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No, it’ll be an assistant coach or mid-major. Retread is a possibility. For me, it’s Tony Bennett or bust
So bust.
We ain't getting Cal, we ain't getting Wright or Mack. An assistant coach or mid-major, in other words someone with a very high probability of being worse than Wojo.
Forget our last coaching search, look to UCLA's last search. Hollywood baby, great LA weather, awesome coeds and an eight year run of NCAA titles, the record for the most NCAA tournament titles with 11. And they struggled to find a guy. That should be sobering for anyone looking to make a change.
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I think, after reading this post, that you and I generally agree: We could hire somebody better or worse than Wojo. (Of course, most would agree with this except those who would say NOBODY could possibly be worse than the evil Wojo.)
I'd add ...
But we likely wouldn't know for years whether the next hire is better or worse than Wojo, especially if all or most of the best players bolt.
Yessir, Soda, it would be great to find the guy who happens to turn out to be the next Buzz, especially if he could do it while operating under the guidelines the current administration has established.
The point is you keep running out that we won't get a P6 coach with NCAA success like that's the only way we could do better. 3 of the last 4 coaches performed better than Wojo, and they didn't fit that criteria, so maybe cool it with that strawman.
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So bust.
We ain't getting Cal, we ain't getting Wright or Mack. An assistant coach or mid-major, in other words someone with a very high probability of being worse than Wojo.
Forget our last coaching search, look to UCLA's last search. Hollywood baby, great LA weather, awesome coeds and an eight year run of NCAA titles, the record for the most NCAA tournament titles with 11. And they struggled to find a guy. That should be sobering for anyone looking to make a change.
Actually, UCLA has been playing well recently. Might even get in the tourney. I think Cronin will have success there.
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So bust.
We ain't getting Cal, we ain't getting Wright or Mack. An assistant coach or mid-major, in other words someone with a very high probability of being worse than Wojo.
Forget our last coaching search, look to UCLA's last search. Hollywood baby, great LA weather, awesome coeds and an eight year run of NCAA titles, the record for the most NCAA tournament titles with 11. And they struggled to find a guy. That should be sobering for anyone looking to make a change.
It’s Marquette. Look at the money being spent and the 1970’s.
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As a side we paid someone $2,000,000/year to learn on the job. So after six years how is the return on that $12,000,000 investment? Sounds like folks are satisfied because Wojo is improving based on your measures. Given this insight how many more years before we become a top contender or are we there already?
This is the problem. For me, it's really national title or bust. Big East titles and Final Fours are nice indicators of improvement, but ultimately the difference in the long term satisfaction of 2013 & 2019 aren't that huge.
It took Jay Wright more than 20 years to win a title. Tony Bennett, Bill Self, and Roy Williams needed more than a decade. Past MU coaches Tom Crean, Buzz Williams, Rick Majerus, and Kevin O'Neill never got there.
I don't know what Wojo will be in 5, 10, or 15 years. But if the cyclical improvement continues, it seems like he would be the kind of coach we are all wishing for. We're not there, I don't know if he'll ever get there, but if the next three years are better than the last three, and the three beyond that are also better, we'll be a top-10 program. I think that's worth waiting for. Yes, it's a big if, but the alternative is starting over and starting the not knowing what we have clock for another decade or two.
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This is the problem. For me, it's really national title or bust. Big East titles and Final Fours are nice indicators of improvement, but ultimately the difference in the long term satisfaction of 2013 & 2019 aren't that huge.
It took Jay Wright more than 20 years to win a title. Tony Bennett, Bill Self, and Roy Williams needed more than a decade. Past MU coaches Tom Crean, Buzz Williams, Rick Majerus, and Kevin O'Neill never got there.
I don't know what Wojo will be in 5, 10, or 15 years. But if the cyclical improvement continues, it seems like he would be the kind of coach we are all wishing for. We're not there, I don't know if he'll ever get there, but if the next three years are better than the last three, and the three beyond that are also better, we'll be a top-10 program. I think that's worth waiting for. Yes, it's a big if, but the alternative is starting over and starting the not knowing what we have clock for another decade or two.
Brew, any idea if there is a database of coaching tenure duration and first Final Four or NC appearance? Might be a good dose of reality one way or another as to what expectations should be around a coach.
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Brew, any idea if there is a database of coaching tenure duration and first Final Four or NC appearance? Might be a good dose of reality one way or another as to what expectations should be around a coach.
I've done some digging into it before, all manually. As someone whose primary interest is a national title, I think F4 numbers can be overrated. For every Izzo that gets to a F4 relatively early and follow it with a title, there's guys like Smart, Larranaga, and Crean who get there once and never translate that to the ultimate prize.
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I've done some digging into it before, all manually. As someone whose primary interest is a national title, I think F4 numbers can be overrated. For every Izzo that gets to a F4 relatively early and follow it with a title, there's guys like Smart, Larranaga, and Crean who get there once and never translate that to the ultimate prize.
Don't necessarily disagree, but I still think it's an interesting data point....how long did it take in the coaching career and how repeatable/sustainable does it tend to be.
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Good stuff Eng. I feel the same way you do, but you articulated it much better than I ever could have.
I still believe that the best way to long term success is to hire a young coach with potential, invest in them heavily, allow them to grow through mistakes, and then turn that early investment into loyalty when the coach starts turning in good results. This model has worked with programs like Syracuse, Duke, Villanova, UConn, etc. This of course requires a school to pick the right young coach to bet on. Investment doesn't always lead to success. Knowing when to cut bait and find a new young coach is a tricky business. Personally, I'm not there yet. If this is yet another late season collapse and it is followed by a missed tourney next season, I probably will be.
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The point is you keep running out that we won't get a P6 coach with NCAA success like that's the only way we could do better. 3 of the last 4 coaches performed better than Wojo, and they didn't fit that criteria, so maybe cool it with that strawman.
It's not a strawman at all. Many, many, many Scoopers - perhaps not you, but many - seem to think we can lure a proven P6 coach with a history of NCAA tourney success to our school. Maybe those folks are right, even though we NEVER have.
As for your statement that 3 of the last 4 coaches performed better than Wojo, that's obviously true. KO, Crean and Buzz - like Wojo - were career assistants. Unlike Wojo, each had a variety of stops before arriving at MU - maybe that gave them perspective Wojo didn't have, and it could be something for our administration to keep in mind when they next need to hire a coach.
Each of those three also used MU as a stepping stone. Also, we've subsequently seen that KO has had a long history of burning out fairly quickly at every single stop. Additionally, we've seen that Crean has not been able to build consistently outstanding programs.
I still think it's a little early to say our administration "missed" in choosing Wojo. You disagree, and that's cool.
You also seem to think that the way to go is to jettison Wojo no matter what - which we both know isn't going to happen - and then start all over again with yet another coach who has never proven himself at the high-major level, hoping that we get it "right" next time. I am not quite there yet.
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It's not a strawman at all. Many, many, many Scoopers - perhaps not you, but many - seem to think we can lure a proven P6 coach with a history of NCAA tourney success to our school. Maybe those folks are right, even though we NEVER have.
As for your statement that 3 of the last 4 coaches performed better than Wojo, that's obviously true. KO, Crean and Buzz - like Wojo - were career assistants. Unlike Wojo, each had a variety of stops before arriving at MU - maybe that gave them perspective Wojo didn't have, and it could be something for our administration to keep in mind when they next need to hire a coach.
Each of those three also used MU as a stepping stone. Also, we've subsequently seen that KO has had a long history of burning out fairly quickly at every single stop. Additionally, we've seen that Crean has not been able to build consistently outstanding programs.
I still think it's a little early to say our administration "missed" in choosing Wojo. You disagree, and that's cool.
You also seem to think that the way to go is to jettison Wojo no matter what - which we both know isn't going to happen - and then start all over again with yet another coach who has never proven himself at the high-major level, hoping that we get it "right" next time. I am not quite there yet.
I wouldn’t even say “many” Scoopers think we can lure the type of coach you described, much less “many, many, many”. I’d say about about the best we could hope for is a guy like TJ Otzelberger, who’s at a job that’s a little worse than MU and might want to come back home if the price was right.
To your point about KO, Crean, and Buzz using MU as a stepping stone, you’re right. Wojo might also have used MU as a stepping stone, but he hasn’t had that opportunity due to his lack of any real success as a head coach. And he might bolt after this season if his golden goose goes for 50 in the first round and gets him a tourney win.
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It's not a strawman at all. Many, many, many Scoopers - perhaps not you, but many - seem to think we can lure a proven P6 coach with a history of NCAA tourney success to our school. Maybe those folks are right, even though we NEVER have.
As for your statement that 3 of the last 4 coaches performed better than Wojo, that's obviously true. KO, Crean and Buzz - like Wojo - were career assistants. Unlike Wojo, each had a variety of stops before arriving at MU - maybe that gave them perspective Wojo didn't have, and it could be something for our administration to keep in mind when they next need to hire a coach.
Each of those three also used MU as a stepping stone. Also, we've subsequently seen that KO has had a long history of burning out fairly quickly at every single stop. Additionally, we've seen that Crean has not been able to build consistently outstanding programs.
I still think it's a little early to say our administration "missed" in choosing Wojo. You disagree, and that's cool.
You also seem to think that the way to go is to jettison Wojo no matter what - which we both know isn't going to happen - and then start all over again with yet another coach who has never proven himself at the high-major level, hoping that we get it "right" next time. I am not quite there yet.
It's definitely a strawman, just like your insinuation that I feel we need to 'jettison Wojo no matter what', which I have absolutely not said. You have a habit of batting down the most extreme take (WOJO IS THE WORST! WE CAN GET A P6 COACH WITH NCAA SUCCESS) and then declaring yourself the winner of an argument nobody else is really having with you. My only point was that we shouldn't be scared of not getting a P6 coach, because we obviously have had success without them.
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Yeah, if you look at the coaches MU could have reasonably hired in 2014, it's hard to find one with a better record than Wojo to this point. Smart is flailing at Texas. Martin burned Cal to the ground and has now burned Mizzou to the ground. Howland is looking at finishing year 5 with only 1 NCAA tourney appearance. Hopkins had a good run with Romar's seniors in year 2 but is now sub .500 with two 5 star freshmen. Manning is about to be fired from Wake Forest. I used to say Florida's Mike White was one we could have gone after but after being pegged as a preseason top 5 team, they are now living the bubble life so maybe he's not the unicorn I thought he was, plus he's always been a southeastern guy so he may not have had the same recruiting success up here.
It is theoretically possible that MU hired the best possible candidate but also that the best candidate wasn't good enough to reach the levels of success we are hoping for.
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I wouldn’t even say “many” Scoopers think we can lure the type of coach you described, much less “many, many, many”. I’d say about about the best we could hope for is a guy like TJ Otzelberger, who’s at a job that’s a little worse than MU and might want to come back home if the price was right.
To your point about KO, Crean, and Buzz using MU as a stepping stone, you’re right. Wojo might also have used MU as a stepping stone, but he hasn’t had that opportunity due to his lack of any real success as a head coach. And he might bolt after this season if his golden goose goes for 50 in the first round and gets him a tourney win.
You might be right, both about me overstating the number of Scoopers who think we can get a proven P6 coach and about Otzelberger being the best we can do. Otzelberger has proven nothing, of course, but that doesn't mean he can't win big at Marquette or elsewhere. You also might be right about Wojo and stepping stones; we might know soon or we might never know.
It's definitely a strawman, just like your insinuation that I feel we need to 'jettison Wojo no matter what', which I have absolutely not said. You have a habit of batting down the most extreme take (WOJO IS THE WORST! WE CAN GET A P6 COACH WITH NCAA SUCCESS) and then declaring yourself the winner of an argument nobody else is really having with you. My only point was that we shouldn't be scared of not getting a P6 coach, because we obviously have had success without them.
You don't think we should dump Wojo and go with somebody else? I apologize if I have misrepresented your opinion. Please remind me what it is again.
And I am not the least bit "scared of not getting a P6 coach," so that sure sounds like a strawman argument from you.
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You don't think we should dump Wojo and go with somebody else? I apologize if I have misrepresented your opinion. Please remind me what it is again.
And I am not the least bit "scared of not getting a P6 coach," so that sure sounds like a strawman argument from you.
I don't believe Wojo should be fired. I feel fine saying he's done enough to keep his job. I also think it's five and a half years in and he doesn't have much to show for it, and that's disappointing. I think the optimism about him making a big leap forward is wishful thinking without a large influx of talent. He is what he is.
And since you're not 'scared' of not getting a P6 coach and very few, if any, posters are shouting that we absolutely will, then we can happily put that talking point to bed.
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Yeah, if you look at the coaches MU could have reasonably hired in 2014, it's hard to find one with a better record than Wojo to this point. Smart is flailing at Texas. Martin burned Cal to the ground and has now burned Mizzou to the ground. Howland is looking at finishing year 5 with only 1 NCAA tourney appearance. Hopkins had a good run with Romar's seniors in year 2 but is now sub .500 with two 5 star freshmen. Manning is about to be fired from Wake Forest. I used to say Florida's Mike White was one we could have gone after but after being pegged as a preseason top 5 team, they are now living the bubble life so maybe he's not the unicorn I thought he was, plus he's always been a southeastern guy so he may not have had the same recruiting success up here.
It is theoretically possible that MU hired the best possible candidate but also that the best candidate wasn't good enough to reach the levels of success we are hoping for.
This right here is the question that will likely never get answered...was it the best they could do?? Do we know that for sure?? Did they even bother to go "big game" hunting first, and make other Coaches say no?? There have been Coaches lured away from schools in college athletics to other schools that no one thought was possible, but they made them offers they can't refuse. I had people that would know tell me, MU never did that after the Shaka shun. That that was their pool of 3, and they never tried to hit a home run. In fact, they never even tried to hit higher than Shaka. EVERY good AD should call people about available jobs even if they think there's less than a 1% chance they say no. What is the harm?? The worst they say is no which you expected anyway..but what is...as you get to talking...there becomes a chance?? Unless you make the call, you never know, and this is where I think MU is lacking. Exhaust MANY options even if some are what others think might not be realistic. It is more important to get it right and know you did everything you possibly could to find the right candidate, then to just "settle". You can always go back to one of your "3" or 4 or whoever as a fall back option...they will always be there.
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I don't believe Wojo should be fired. I feel fine saying he's done enough to keep his job. I also think it's five and a half years in and he doesn't have much to show for it, and that's disappointing. I think the optimism about him making a big leap forward is wishful thinking without a large influx of talent. He is what he is.
And since you're not 'scared' of not getting a P6 coach and very few, if any, posters are shouting that we absolutely will, then we can happily put that talking point to bed.
SOS:
I apologize for misrepresenting your thoughts on Wojo's job status. I said earlier that I believed we had quite similar thoughts on much of this, and now it appears to be the case even more. Our main difference, it appears, is that I remain open-minded on Wojo's "ceiling." I believe he has gotten better as a coach and believe he can improve more. I sure hope I'm right, because it doesn't look like he's going anywhere, but I might be wrong.
As for what kind of coach we can get the next time there is an opening, I admit that my "many Scoopers" statement might have been influenced by the screaming of a few loud ones, such as the commenter right above this.
Have a good one.
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This right here is the question that will likely never get answered...was it the best they could do?? Do we know that for sure?? Did they even bother to go "big game" hunting first, and make other Coaches say no?? There have been Coaches lured away from schools in college athletics to other schools that no one thought was possible, but they made them offers they can't refuse. I had people that would know tell me, MU never did that after the Shaka shun. That that was their pool of 3, and they never tried to hit a home run. In fact, they never even tried to hit higher than Shaka. EVERY good AD should call people about available jobs even if they think there's less than a 1% chance they say no. What is the harm?? The worst they say is no which you expected anyway..but what is...as you get to talking...there becomes a chance?? Unless you make the call, you never know, and this is where I think MU is lacking. Exhaust MANY options even if some are what others think might not be realistic. It is more important to get it right and know you did everything you possibly could to find the right candidate, then to just "settle". You can always go back to one of your "3" or 4 or whoever as a fall back option...they will always be there.
A) They did go big game hunting pre-Shaka, and universally it was a nope.
B) Remember we did not have a permanent AD at the time and the timing of Lovell's hiring was based on the need to make Shaka feel better.....not ideal time to be hiring a coach so the fact that we ended up with the best of the bunch (in hindsight) is relatively impressive in my book.
C) Can you cite any examples of established coaches lured away from a school with a godfather offer like you claim?
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To go back to the analysis, my concern with Wojo is less how we do in close games -- we have improved as the statistics show -- but how we perform in games we're supposed to win. Case in point is BOTH Providence games this year.
We should have swept the Friars, clear and simple. We're a better team and while you win some you should lose, you also shouldn't be losing much of the games you should win. We've been too inconsistent through much of the year and we're either deadly from three or it's anybody's game.
I'm unconvinced with Wojo. By that, I mean I don't think he should be shown the door, as I don't want to lose the recruiting momentum we have. But we need some really positive growth coming fast and we need to make use of the entire team, not the guards.
My jaundiced perspective:
1) When I see this team, my basic concern is we have a strong presence inside that we almost forget is there. Both Theo and Jayce are under-utilized offensively. Between the two of them, they probably should average 12 to 14 points a game. I'm a big fan of Brendan Bailey but you can't argue that he's all but disappeared for too much of this year. Jamal Cain is someone you never know what you're getting from one game to the next.
2) The world has learned how to defend Markus. I suspect is average PPG will fall as the days of the 30-point games probably are over. He's a great ballplayer and would be even greater if folks around him could pick up the slack when he's double-teamed.
3) Sacar Anim is someone I love because we've watched him develop and he's probably overachieved. With rare exception, he won't carry you on his back.
4) Koby is the standard of inconsistency. What we saw against Purdue is someone who can take over a game. But like Brendan, he's disappeared and hasn't been what we hoped when it was announced he was coming here. I'm optimistic for next year with him, but there is a lot of work that must be done.
5) Greg's been injured for part of the year and Symir is a freshman. I'm hopeful Symir will be really something, but I thought the same thing about Koby.
The ceiling for this year is probably a "6" seed and perhaps one NCAA victory. The way our opponents are beating up on Markus is limiting what we can do. Unless Sacar and Koby can step up, we're done quick, sadly.
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To go back to the analysis, my concern with Wojo is less how we do in close games -- we have improved as the statistics show -- but how we perform in games we're supposed to win. Case in point is BOTH Providence games this year.
We should have swept the Friars, clear and simple. We're a better team and while you win some you should lose, you also shouldn't be losing much of the games you should win. We've been too inconsistent through much of the year and we're either deadly from three or it's anybody's game.
I'm unconvinced with Wojo. By that, I mean I don't think he should be shown the door, as I don't want to lose the recruiting momentum we have. But we need some really positive growth coming fast and we need to make use of the entire team, not the guards.
My jaundiced perspective:
1) When I see this team, my basic concern is we have a strong presence inside that we almost forget is there. Both Theo and Jayce are under-utilized offensively. Between the two of them, they probably should average 12 to 14 points a game. I'm a big fan of Brendan Bailey but you can't argue that he's all but disappeared for too much of this year. Jamal Cain is someone you never know what you're getting from one game to the next.
2) The world has learned how to defend Markus. I suspect is average PPG will fall as the days of the 30-point games probably are over. He's a great ballplayer and would be even greater if folks around him could pick up the slack when he's double-teamed.
3) Sacar Anim is someone I love because we've watched him develop and he's probably overachieved. With rare exception, he won't carry you on his back.
4) Koby is the standard of inconsistency. What we saw against Purdue is someone who can take over a game. But like Brendan, he's disappeared and hasn't been what we hoped when it was announced he was coming here. I'm optimistic for next year with him, but there is a lot of work that must be done.
5) Greg's been injured for part of the year and Symir is a freshman. I'm hopeful Symir will be really something, but I thought the same thing about Koby.
The ceiling for this year is probably a "6" seed and perhaps one NCAA victory. The way our opponents are beating up on Markus is limiting what we can do. Unless Sacar and Koby can step up, we're done quick, sadly.
*standing ovation* This just won the thread and it's not even close! You can say the Exact same thing about the @ Butler game as well. So even if you just put those 3 games in the "W" column and all other results stay the same how much different would things look?? All of a sudden you are 10-4 in the Big east instead of 7-7. It just comes down to doing what you are supposed to do. Thank You dgies for TRYING to get people to see what's so glaringly obvious even if they don't want to admit it.
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I'm sure Creighton, Seton Hall, and Butler thought they should've swept Providence too. They had a terrible non-con, but have been a top-25 team since the New Year and Torvik has them ranked 12th nationally in the past month. PC is finally playing like the team they were supposed to be. Other than maybe Kansas or Baylor, no one is "supposed" to beat them on their own court.
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In the generic sense absolutely, in the sense that we are trying to be realistic about how the MU BoT and Bill Scholl operates, naaawwww
Well we have identified the problem. As I have said, it will be years of struggle before action will be taken and then it will be a knee jerk reaction with likely the same result.
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A) They did go big game hunting pre-Shaka, and universally it was a nope.
B) Remember we did not have a permanent AD at the time and the timing of Lovell's hiring was based on the need to make Shaka feel better.....not ideal time to be hiring a coach so the fact that we ended up with the best of the bunch (in hindsight) is relatively impressive in my book.
C) Can you cite any examples of established coaches lured away from a school with a godfather offer like you claim?
Ahem, Guru
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*standing ovation* This just won the thread and it's not even close! You can say the Exact same thing about the @ Butler game as well. So even if you just put those 3 games in the "W" column and all other results stay the same how much different would things look?? All of a sudden you are 10-4 in the Big east instead of 7-7. It just comes down to doing what you are supposed to do. Thank You dgies for TRYING to get people to see what's so glaringly obvious even if they don't want to admit it.
Thank you Brother Guru!
As an avid Warrior fan, I want our guys to do well and I want Wojo to be COY! But the inconsistency is maddening. We try like the dickens everytime we play... our guys have a never quit mentality and they don't quit.
The real issue I see with our coach is that our team is a "guards" team. When I was young, there was a good-natured rivalry between the inside and outside players (which explains why Sam Bowie was drafted ahead of Michael Jordan). The game has changed a lot in the ensuing years and the outside players are more important than ever. But to be a complete team, you have to score from anywhere on the floor and involve your entire team. With rare exception, we don't.
The other thing is we're not patient. Again, there are exceptions (ahem... Purdue). But when we get down by 12 to 15 points, we start chucking so often that I have nightmares about it. That's what turns a close game into a blow-out.
In the end, basketball is not a titanic struggle between two teams. It's winning a lot of little battles all over the court, consistently and thoughtfully. We're not doing that and so our upside is limited.
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*standing ovation* This just won the thread and it's not even close! You can say the Exact same thing about the @ Butler game as well. So even if you just put those 3 games in the "W" column and all other results stay the same how much different would things look?? All of a sudden you are 10-4 in the Big east instead of 7-7. It just comes down to doing what you are supposed to do. Thank You dgies for TRYING to get people to see what's so glaringly obvious even if they don't want to admit it.
Well, we weren't supposed to beat Villanova at home. So, 9-5.
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Okay, I went back through all 41 coaches that have made a Final Four since 2000. First, I apologize for the wonkiness of code boxes. Anyway...of those, it took the average coach 3.9 years to make it to the NCAA Tournament, 11.1 years to make the Final Four, and for the 14 coaches to win a National Title, the average time to the first title was 17.4 years.
I realize that as Final Four coaches, these are guys considered elite and we have no way of knowing if Wojo will ever get there, but of those 14 coaches that won a title only 3 made a Final Four in less time than Wojo has on the job currently. It will likely become 4 if Wojo doesn't make the Final Four this year (Donovan) but if you are looking to get to a Final Four, 56.1% of the coaches who reached a Final Four in the last 20 years didn't get there until they had 10+ years on the job. 85.7% of the national title winners didn't win their first title until they had 10+ years on the job.
Even more worth noting, 75.6% of the coaches to get to the Final Four did so after leaving their first D1 head coaching job. Quite possible that Wojo could be the next K, Wright, or Donovan, but won't realize the levels of success those guys are known for until after he's departed Marquette.
I have no idea what Wojo will grow into, but it's clear that by and large, it takes time to get to a Final Four, more time to win a national title, and usually multiple stops along the way. Do what you will with the data, feel free to expand on the research if someone else wants to look at NCAA wins or S16s or other less meaningful-than-a-Final-Four numbers.
Coach Yrs>NCAA Yrs>F4 Yrs>NC Jobs>F4 Current Job
Bill Guthridge 1 1 (None) 1 (Retired)
Kevin Ollie 2 2 2 1 (Retired)
Shaka Smart 2 2 (None) 1 2
Mike Davis 1 2 (None) 1 4
Roy Williams 2 3 17 2 2
Brad Stevens 1 3 (None) 1 (Retired)
Chris Beard 1 4 (None) 2 2
Tom Izzo 3 4 5 1 1
Tom Crean 3 4 (None) 1 3
Billy Donovan 5 6 12 2 (Retired)
Thad Matta 1 6 (None) 3 (Retired)
J. Thompson III 1 7 (None) 2 (Retired)
Bruce Weber 4 7 (None) 2 3
Paul Hewitt 2 7 (None) 2 (Retired)
John Calipari 4 8 20 1 3
Rick Pitino 6 8 15 3 (Retired)
Bob Huggins 2 8 (None) 2 4
Eddie Sutton 5 9 (None) 2 (Retired)
Frank Martin 1 10 (None) 2 2
Jim Boeheim 1 11 27 1 1
Mike Krzyzewski 9 11 16 2 2
Ben Howland 4 11 (None) 3 4
Lute Olson 1 11 28 3 (Retired)
Lon Kruger 5 12 (None) 3 6
Tony Bennett 1 13 13 2 2
Porter Moser 14 14 (None) 3 3
Bruce Pearl 2 15 (None) 3 3
Jay Wright 6 15 22 2 2
Bill Self 6 15 15 4 4
Bo Ryan 3 15 (None) 2 (Retired)
Gregg Marshall 1 15 (None) 2 2
John Brady 9 15 (None) 2 (Retired)
Kelvin Sampson 7 15 (None) 2 4
Dick Bennett 6 15 (None) 2 (Retired)
Rick Barnes 2 16 (None) 4 5
Mark Few 1 18 (None) 1 1
Jim Larranaga 13 20 (None) 2 3
Jon Beilein 4 21 (None) 4 4
Gary Williams 5 23 24 4 (Retired)
Jim Calhoun 9 27 27 2 (Retired)
Dana Altman 4 28 (None) 4 4
Average #'s 3.9 11.1 17.4 2.2
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Well, we weren't supposed to beat Villanova at home. So, 9-5.
We were favored in that game but underdogs @ Georgetown and @X which we won.
So far in BE play we've lost two games we were favored in (CU, PC) and won two games we were not favored in (@X, @ Georgetown). So we're actually right on track in that sense.
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Okay, I went back through all 41 coaches that have made a Final Four since 2000. First, I apologize for the wonkiness of code boxes. Anyway...of those, it took the average coach 3.9 years to make it to the NCAA Tournament, 11.1 years to make the Final Four, and for the 14 coaches to win a National Title, the average time to the first title was 17.4 years.
I realize that as Final Four coaches, these are guys considered elite and we have no way of knowing if Wojo will ever get there, but of those 14 coaches that won a title only 3 made a Final Four in less time than Wojo has on the job currently. It will likely become 4 if Wojo doesn't make the Final Four this year (Donovan) but if you are looking to get to a Final Four, 56.1% of the coaches who reached a Final Four in the last 20 years didn't get there until they had 10+ years on the job. 85.7% of the national title winners didn't win their first title until they had 10+ years on the job.
Even more worth noting, 75.6% of the coaches to get to the Final Four did so after leaving their first D1 head coaching job. Quite possible that Wojo could be the next K, Wright, or Donovan, but won't realize the levels of success those guys are known for until after he's departed Marquette.
I have no idea what Wojo will grow into, but it's clear that by and large, it takes time to get to a Final Four, more time to win a national title, and usually multiple stops along the way. Do what you will with the data, feel free to expand on the research if someone else wants to look at NCAA wins or S16s or other less meaningful-than-a-Final-Four numbers.
Coach Yrs>NCAA Yrs>F4 Yrs>NC Jobs>F4 Current Job
Bill Guthridge 1 1 (None) 1 (Retired)
Kevin Ollie 2 2 2 1 (Retired)
Shaka Smart 2 2 (None) 1 2
Mike Davis 1 2 (None) 1 4
Roy Williams 2 3 17 2 2
Brad Stevens 1 3 (None) 1 (Retired)
Chris Beard 1 4 (None) 2 2
Tom Izzo 3 4 5 1 1
Tom Crean 3 4 (None) 1 3
Billy Donovan 5 6 12 2 (Retired)
Thad Matta 1 6 (None) 3 (Retired)
J. Thompson III 1 7 (None) 2 (Retired)
Bruce Weber 4 7 (None) 2 3
Paul Hewitt 2 7 (None) 2 (Retired)
John Calipari 4 8 20 1 3
Rick Pitino 6 8 15 3 (Retired)
Bob Huggins 2 8 (None) 2 4
Eddie Sutton 5 9 (None) 2 (Retired)
Frank Martin 1 10 (None) 2 2
Jim Boeheim 1 11 27 1 1
Mike Krzyzewski 9 11 16 2 2
Ben Howland 4 11 (None) 3 4
Lute Olson 1 11 28 3 (Retired)
Lon Kruger 5 12 (None) 3 6
Tony Bennett 1 13 13 2 2
Porter Moser 14 14 (None) 3 3
Bruce Pearl 2 15 (None) 3 3
Jay Wright 6 15 22 2 2
Bill Self 6 15 15 4 4
Bo Ryan 3 15 (None) 2 (Retired)
Gregg Marshall 1 15 (None) 2 2
John Brady 9 15 (None) 2 (Retired)
Kelvin Sampson 7 15 (None) 2 4
Dick Bennett 6 15 (None) 2 (Retired)
Rick Barnes 2 16 (None) 4 5
Mark Few 1 18 (None) 1 1
Jim Larranaga 13 20 (None) 2 3
Jon Beilein 4 21 (None) 4 4
Gary Williams 5 23 24 4 (Retired)
Jim Calhoun 9 27 27 2 (Retired)
Dana Altman 4 28 (None) 4 4
Average #'s 3.9 11.1 17.4 2.2
Thanks for this.
Can you go one step further and evaluate those that made the FF or won the championship, what the percentages look like for return visits to that level or how long it takes to get back?
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Thanks for this.
Can you go one step further and evaluate those that made the FF or won the championship, what the percentages look like for return visits to that level or how long it takes to get back?
Let's use the nearest and dearest example to us all: AL!
He was hired for the 1964-1965 season. That first year, we were abysmal. Al made the NCAA tournament for the first time in 1967-1968 and we were promptly blown out by the University of Kentucky and Adolph the Bigot. In today's world, the 1966-1967 team probably would have been an NCAA team as well.
The 1968-1969 team made the regional final and was a free throw away from the Final Four. We then won the NIT and then proceeded to lose various regional games in the NCAA between 1971 and 1974. No doubt part of the early 1970s failures was caused by the decision of Jim Chones, with Al's endorsement, to turn pro.
Al made the Final Four for the first time in 1973-1974, his 10th year at Marquette.
Al won the national title in 1976-1977, his 13th year at Marquette and three years after his initial FF appearance.
One can argue that we had enough talent to get to the Final Four through much of the 1970s. But things just don't happen the way we want -- such as the disaster in 1978.
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Let's use the nearest and dearest example to us all: AL!
He was hired for the 1964-1965 season. That first year, we were abysmal. Al made the NCAA tournament for the first time in 1967-1968 and we were promptly blown out by the University of Kentucky and Adolph the Bigot. In today's world, the 1966-1967 team probably would have been an NCAA team as well.
The 1968-1969 team made the regional final and was a free throw away from the Final Four. We then won the NIT and then proceeded to lose various regional games in the NCAA between 1971 and 1974. No doubt part of the early 1970s failures was caused by the decision of Jim Chones, with Al's endorsement, to turn pro.
Al made the Final Four for the first time in 1973-1974, his 10th year at Marquette.
Al won the national title in 1976-1977, his 13th year at Marquette and three years after his initial FF appearance.
One can argue that we had enough talent to get to the Final Four through much of the 1970s. But things just don't happen the way we want -- such as the disaster in 1978.
Fire Al ... posthumously!
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Fire Al ... posthumously!
Scoop, circa February 1977
- the game has passed him by
- the final four was great but that was 3 years ago
- what other coach would get kicked out of a regional final, he’s lost it
- Chonesgate doesn’t sit well with me
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Scoop, circa February 1977
- the game has passed him by
- the final four was great but that was 3 years ago
- what other coach would get kicked out of a regional final, he’s lost it
- Chonesgate doesn’t sit well with me
...and after we fire this jokester McGuire, we ought to really take a close look at that guy Vitale in Detroit. He's got Detroit into the top 20. He looks like he's really going places.
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Brother Rico:
In February 1977, Coach McGuire already had announced his retirement.
We knew we were going to have a new coach for 1977-1978.
Coach McGuire also never was kicked out of a regional final. He received a double technical against NC State in the NCAA Championship. But that did not earn him an early exit. Al was not that stupid.