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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks] The Grand Unified Theory of Wojo……or why I learned to stop w  (Read 3415 times)

mu03eng

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"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

rocky_warrior

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Whoa!  I thought you only knew how to use a microphone!?

mu03eng

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Whoa!  I thought you only knew how to use a microphone!?

Clearly you aren't read or listening....I don't know how to do either thing  ;D ;)
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

mu_hilltopper

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You know we don't pay by the word, right?

Frenns Liquor Depot

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I'm glad I hung in until the end...I hope my data's right!

rocky_warrior

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Good article.  It may only help your own set of beliefs, but at least you get to relax now!

mu03eng

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You know we don't pay by the word, right?

I've never been the soul of brevity, that's for sure.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

SERocks

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Good article and good reason to keep him around for a while longer.


lurch91

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You realize this is only going to change the narrative from "Can't win big games" to "Isn't prepared for big games".  That will result in the hypothesis that Wojo has lost more games by 10+ points than any coach in recent history....

Edit: I failed to say, awesome post that was backed up by facts and not pure conjecture, emotion, and hyperbole.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 02:35:51 PM by lurch91 »

Dr. Blackheart

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You realize this is only going to change the narrative from "Can't win big games" to "Isn't prepared for big games".  That will result in the hypothesis that Wojo has lost more games by 10+ points than any coach in recent history....

But, he tried to get the PC game to under 10...

MU82

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Wow, Phil, that was some post! Lotsa interesting stats and eye-opening data. Thanks for taking the time to compile all of that.

Your conclusion included the following:

We can argue all we want about Wojo’s mistakes, his failures, and his lack of public persona but what I don’t think we can argue is that Wojo is getting better every year as a coach. I have no doubt that some of that is due to improving talent on the roster, but if Wojo isn’t responsible for that I don’t know who is.

A few things ...

1. Many Scoopers would argue quite forcefully that Wojo is NOT getting better every year as a coach. They'd be wrong because the facts say otherwise, but that wouldn't stop them from arguing it.

2. Many Scoopers would claim that Stan or Killings or anybody except Wojo is responsible for the talent on the roster. These folks don't even like to acknowledge that Wojo is responsible for Stan and the other assistants being at Marquette.

3. Any statistics suggesting that Wojo has done a good job in clutch situations fail the "eye test." And, of course, any eye test suggesting that Wojo has done a good job fails some set of stats that Nojos can cherry-pick. So nice try, Phil!

4. (BONUS) Of the numerous players who have improved, many Scoopers contend it has happened despite Wojo - the players already were gifted and/or they were just making the kind of logical, gradual progress any player would make under any coach; for those who haven't improved much, it's 100% on Wojo.

Although I obviously wish we would win more, and you obviously wish we would win more, we both are relatively optimistic and patient.

Therefore, we are doomed to get shouted down by the "Wojo must go!" faction. But that's life on interwebs fan sites.
“The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty.”

-- James Madison

Class71

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"Lies, damned lies, and statistics".

A very meaningful quote that statisticians appreciate. Statistics, when applied properly are helpful. Otherwise ...

As a side we paid someone $2,000,000/year to learn on the job. So after six years how is the return on that $12,000,000 investment? Sounds like folks are satisfied because Wojo is improving based on your measures. Given this insight how many more years before we become a top contender or are we there already?

I prefer not to lower the bar.
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MU82

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"Lies, damned lies, and statistics".

A very meaningful quote that statisticians appreciate. Statistics, when applied properly are helpful. Otherwise ...

As a side we paid someone $2,000,000/year to learn on the job. So after six years how is the return on that $12,000,000 investment? Sounds like folks are satisfied because Wojo is improving based on your measures. Given this insight how many more years before we become a top contender or are we there already?

I prefer not to lower the bar.

You know, even though I "lean Projo" (and it appears you don't), I find this comment very reasonable.

If the college football coach recruits only bad QBs, and the QB plays badly, whose fault is it? Often, the QB gets crapped on, but it's really on the coach.

Similarly, if Wojo really does suck, as many Scoopers believe, that's largely on those who brought him in and who continue to support him.

Now, of course, it doesn't acknowledge the relative lack of spectacularosity of the others who were available at the time - Mrs. Shaka's husband, UCLA retread Howland, stepping-stoner Cuonzo, and the like - but it's a reasonable point to suggest that MU has not gotten a wonderful investment on its millions.

MU hired a guy who, by definition (because he had never been a head coach at any level), would have to learn on the job. That's not on Wojo, it's on his bosses.
“The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty.”

-- James Madison

willie warrior

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"Lies, damned lies, and statistics".

A very meaningful quote that statisticians appreciate. Statistics, when applied properly are helpful. Otherwise ...

As a side we paid someone $2,000,000/year to learn on the job. So after six years how is the return on that $12,000,000 investment? Sounds like folks are satisfied because Wojo is improving based on your measures. Given this insight how many more years before we become a top contender or are we there already?

I prefer not to lower the bar.
Hosanna. Wojo needs 10 more years to evaluate
 Forsnt matter if nobody else gets that lengthy of a leash.

NickelDimer

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Wow, Phil, that was some post! Lotsa interesting stats and eye-opening data. Thanks for taking the time to compile all of that.

Your conclusion included the following:

We can argue all we want about Wojo’s mistakes, his failures, and his lack of public persona but what I don’t think we can argue is that Wojo is getting better every year as a coach. I have no doubt that some of that is due to improving talent on the roster, but if Wojo isn’t responsible for that I don’t know who is.

A few things ...

1. Many Scoopers would argue quite forcefully that Wojo is NOT getting better every year as a coach. They'd be wrong because the facts say otherwise, but that wouldn't stop them from arguing it.

2. Many Scoopers would claim that Stan or Killings or anybody except Wojo is responsible for the talent on the roster. These folks don't even like to acknowledge that Wojo is responsible for Stan and the other assistants being at Marquette.

3. Any statistics suggesting that Wojo has done a good job in clutch situations fail the "eye test." And, of course, any eye test suggesting that Wojo has done a good job fails some set of stats that Nojos can cherry-pick. So nice try, Phil!

4. (BONUS) Of the numerous players who have improved, many Scoopers contend it has happened despite Wojo - the players already were gifted and/or they were just making the kind of logical, gradual progress any player would make under any coach; for those who haven't improved much, it's 100% on Wojo.

Although I obviously wish we would win more, and you obviously wish we would win more, we both are relatively optimistic and patient.

Therefore, we are doomed to get shouted down by the "Wojo must go!" faction. But that's life on interwebs fan sites.
I mean he’s improving in the ways anyone will improve at anything they do over an extended period of time. Conversely I can’t point to anything as evidence of significant improvement, but that’s just my perspective.
G.T.S.T

Class71

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You know, even though I "lean Projo" (and it appears you don't), I find this comment very reasonable.

If the college football coach recruits only bad QBs, and the QB plays badly, whose fault is it? Often, the QB gets crapped on, but it's really on the coach.

Similarly, if Wojo really does suck, as many Scoopers believe, that's largely on those who brought him in and who continue to support him.

Now, of course, it doesn't acknowledge the relative lack of spectacularosity of the others who were available at the time - Mrs. Shaka's husband, UCLA retread Howland, stepping-stoner Cuonzo, and the like - but it's a reasonable point to suggest that MU has not gotten a wonderful investment on its millions.

MU hired a guy who, by definition (because he had never been a head coach at any level), would have to learn on the job. That's not on Wojo, it's on his bosses.

I agree with your comments.

Wojo and Buzz were both unproven when hired. Wojo meets the needs of the front office while Buzz did not. Buzz was a winner Wojo ... ???

I firmly believe Wojo has some very good qualities and and it appears he can generally recruit well. Unfortunately he has significant weaknesses. I was critical of the management when he was hired as I was when Buzz was hired. My expectation is, for the money we offer, there should be a better track record of the candidate that is selected. That should increase the likelihood of success.

Remember this same management will decide if Wojo stays or leaves. My assessment is he will stay for some years to come and we and more importantly the players and the school will likely suffer accordingly.

If not I am happily wrong.
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Cheeks

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MU82

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I agree with your comments.

Wojo and Buzz were both unproven when hired. Wojo meets the needs of the front office while Buzz did not. Buzz was a winner Wojo ... ???

I firmly believe Wojo has some very good qualities and and it appears he can generally recruit well. Unfortunately he has significant weaknesses. I was critical of the management when he was hired as I was when Buzz was hired. My expectation is, for the money we offer, there should be a better track record of the candidate that is selected. That should increase the likelihood of success.

Remember this same management will decide if Wojo stays or leaves. My assessment is he will stay for some years to come and we and more importantly the players and the school will likely suffer accordingly.

If not I am happily wrong.

Curious, C71, which coach did you think we should have hired back then?

If the choice was Mrs. Shaka's husband, as it was for most of us, who was your choice once Da Missus said she didn't like frozen custard and bubblers?
“The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty.”

-- James Madison

muguru

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This is meant to be an honest(not smart ass question)....some people here talk so much about "trend lines" then pick and choose what data they want to use to suit their narrative. Well, This year MU won't finish as high in the conference as they did last year, and next year COULD(yet to be determined), be worse than this year...so wouldn't that then mean a downward trend?? Or is that not the data we will choose to use for any number of reasons?? To me, if you have one year of say a 2nd place finish, the next year is a 5th place finish(for example), and the year after that is a 7th place finish, that can't be anything but a downward trend. Or...are we being forgiving because of whatever excuses we want to use(the Hausers leaving etc)?? I'm asking in all honesty here.
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

Small Orange Soda

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Curious, C71, which coach did you think we should have hired back then?

If the choice was Mrs. Shaka's husband, as it was for most of us, who was your choice once Da Missus said she didn't like frozen custard and bubblers?

Who cares?  That was six years ago.  If Wojo leaves, do we have to pick from Shaka, Howland, and Cuonzo again? 
"When you're the leader of a group or an organization, you hold your kids accountable but the main person you need to hold accountable is me."  -Wojo

BM1090

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This is meant to be an honest(not smart ass question)....some people here talk so much about "trend lines" then pick and choose what data they want to use to suit their narrative. Well, This year MU won't finish as high in the conference as they did last year, and next year COULD(yet to be determined), be worse than this year...so wouldn't that then mean a downward trend?? Or is that not the data we will choose to use for any number of reasons?? To me, if you have one year of say a 2nd place finish, the next year is a 5th place finish(for example), and the year after that is a 7th place finish, that can't be anything but a downward trend. Or...are we being forgiving because of whatever excuses we want to use(the Hausers leaving etc)?? I'm asking in all honesty here.

Personally I look at Kenpom ranking and even though yes, it's a crapshoot, tournament success. The Big East is much stronger this year so our conference finish is lower, but we rank higher relative to the rest of CBB. If we finish higher than 32 on Kenpom that's 3 consecutive years our ranking improved. That, plus a tournament win shows a clear upward trajectory.

If we finish around 32 and don't win a tourney game, then it seems we've plateaued a bit. Not treading downward.

I also try to look at it in recruiting cycle chunks like TAMU mentioned. Wojo's first 3 years we finished 93, 97, 32. The next three years were 53, 33, 29 (with games to play). Clear improvement

I'd expect the next three years to improve on that. Something like 40, 20, 15. Also need some level of accomplishment when it comes to conference titles, BET titles, S16 runs, etc.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 04:23:40 PM by BM1090 »

Uncle Rico

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Who cares?  That was six years ago.  If Wojo leaves, do we have to pick from Shaka, Howland, and Cuonzo again?

No, it’ll be an assistant coach or mid-major.  Retread is a possibility.  For me, it’s Tony Bennett or bust
Cooler.  20 Days.

muguru

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Personally I look at Kenpom ranking and even though yes, it's a crapshoot, tournament success. The Big East is much stronger this year so our conference finish is lower, but we rank higher relative to the rest of CBB. If we finish higher than 32 on Kenpom that's 3 consecutive years our ranking improved. That, plus a tournament win shows a clear upward trajectory.

If we finish around 32 and don't win a tourney game, then it seems we've plateaued a bit. Not treading downward.

I also try to look at it in recruiting cycle chunks like TAMU mentioned. Wojo's first 3 years we finished 93, 97, 32. The next three years were 53, 33, 29 (with games to play). Clear improvement

I'd expect the next three years to improve on that. Something like 40, 20, 15. Also need some level of accomplishment when it comes to conference titles, BET titles, S16 runs, etc.

This is what I personally need to see, to give me some semblance of hope that the program is going in the right direction. Otherwise to me it's just spinning it's wheels, staying relatively the same, with maybe some minor improvements year to year.
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

MU82

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This is meant to be an honest(not smart ass question)....some people here talk so much about "trend lines" then pick and choose what data they want to use to suit their narrative. Well, This year MU won't finish as high in the conference as they did last year, and next year COULD(yet to be determined), be worse than this year...so wouldn't that then mean a downward trend?? Or is that not the data we will choose to use for any number of reasons?? To me, if you have one year of say a 2nd place finish, the next year is a 5th place finish(for example), and the year after that is a 7th place finish, that can't be anything but a downward trend. Or...are we being forgiving because of whatever excuses we want to use(the Hausers leaving etc)?? I'm asking in all honesty here.

Fair questions, guru.

I am already on record as saying that if we collapse this season and then don't make the tournament next season, I will join those saying it will be time to bid adieu to Wojo. (Barring something unforeseen, such as a bunch of key injuries.)

I hate the idea that some of our top young players might follow him out the door if the new coach can't convince them to stay, but that's how I feel.

People are writing off this season, but to me the grade right now is "Incomplete."

Let's say we finish the regular season 3-1, followed by 1-1 in the BET, get a 5-6 seed and advance to the Sweet 16 before losing in the 3rd round. We will have finished 23-12 with a second-weekend run. I know some might consider that "accepting mediocrity" (weird definition of mediocrity, but whatevs), but to me that would be a step forward. Not only would it deservedly buy him more time IMHO, it might even get him another contract extension (which would make some Scoopers' brains explode).

Now, let's say we finish 2-2, followed by immediate losses in the BET and NCAA tourney for a 19-13 record. For me, that would be a step backward and would put him on the clock. Miss the tourney next year, and adios.

Of course, it doesn't really matter whether either of us has Wojo "on the clock," as neither of us has a say on his status as Marquette coach. One thing I have learned over my years on this earth is that one of the keys to happiness and balance is to avoid worrying too much about crapola I can't control.
“The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty.”

-- James Madison

Class71

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Curious, C71, which coach did you think we should have hired back then?

If the choice was Mrs. Shaka's husband, as it was for most of us, who was your choice once Da Missus said she didn't like frozen custard and bubblers?
I had the same choice that most of us had and he had his fair share of bumps. I agree we had few/no other acceptable choices.

I think the bigger question is why does Marquette have so few choices? Pay appears not to be the problem. Facilities are excellent. Weather is out of our control but many mid western schools have the same issue. So the question is why?

Also I do not expect this management to take action. This highlights another issue. I understand why, in this case, I just disagree with their decision to continue to extend contacts. We should be looking on an ongoing basis and when someone outstanding becomes available we go for it. Do we not do the same with the players we recruit? How many offers are out there for players, how many get little to no playing time and are given little choice if they do not work out? Should we hold coaches to the same standard coaches use with players? We give players a red shirt to develop. That is one year. How many years do we give a coach? Agree more than 1 or 2 but how many more past 6?

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