[Cracked Sidewalks] Big East Win Targets

[brewcity77]

This week's S-Curve features some discussion on a ridiculous statistic regarding the resume weakness of the top-5 teams in the AAC compared to the bottom-5 teams in the Big East and goes on to establish target numbers for every Big East team to reach in order to be locked into a NCAA Tournament berth (yes, everyone is technically still alive).

We also take a look at the road ahead and just how lopsided the Big East opportunities are compared to other teams on the bubble before wrapping up with the S-Curve that features Marquette reaching their high-water mark of the season to date. Enjoy!

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/02/big-east-win-targets.html

[fjm]

Good info. Love it.

Really enjoy reading these weekly. Helps when discussing with people who firmly believe MU is trash this year.

[MU82]

So informative, brewski. Great stuff.

Of the second-division BEast teams, 7 of their Q1 wins were scored during the non-con schedule. Demostrates how truly kick-arse Nov and Dec were were for them and the entire conference.

[brewcity77]

So informative, brewski. Great stuff.

Of the second-division BEast teams, 7 of their Q1 wins were scored during the non-con schedule. Demostrates how truly kick-arse Nov and Dec were were for them and the entire conference.

I was discussing this on Twitter earlier and really feel bad for teams like Georgetown, DePaul, and St. John's. Those are likely tourney teams in any other league, but playing in the Big East makes it much tougher because of how hard it is night in and night out.

That said, teams like Xavier and Providence, who didn't pile up the non-con scalps, have a better chance of getting in because any wins they get improve their resume. A bit of a double-edged sword.

[brewcity77]

Evening bump. Familiarize yourself with the unique strength of the Big East.

[WhoaJoe2020]

So you're saying DePaul has a chance.

[brewcity77]

So you're saying DePaul has a chance.

They have to get really hot. Need to go 6-3 down the stretch, they play 5/9 on the road, and already played the two "easiest" home games (PC & SJU) having lost both.

The Q1 wins are huge, but my guess would be that Pantelis Xidias will have to shave his head.

[WhoaJoe2020]

They have to get really hot. Need to go 6-3 down the stretch, they play 5/9 on the road, and already played the two "easiest" home games (PC & SJU) having lost both.

The Q1 wins are huge, but my guess would be that Pantelis Xidias will have to shave his head.

If they can replicate their play @ Marquette who knows.

[sailwi]

Really good info, thanks.

[MuMark]

Some further data to corroborate Bews hypotheses about MU being a lock with 2 more wins.....I used T-Ranks teamcast tool......gave us wins over Butler and Georgetown.....losses in every other game inluding first round of Big East tourney to a hypothetical opponent....(Butler)

We are still an 8 seed according to his algorithm......now you can disagree with being an 8...maybe it's a 9 or 10.....but out of the tournament is not in the cards if you believe his math......

http://www.barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?rank=28&team=Marquette&year=2020&bracket=1&Loyola_MDMarquette11-5=A&PurdueMarquette11-13=A&MarquetteWisconsin11-17=A&Robert_MorrisMarquette11-23=A&DavidsonMarquette11-28=A&USCMarquette11-29=A&MarylandMarquette12-1=A&JacksonvilleMarquette12-4=A&MarquetteKansas_St_12-7=A&Grambling_St_Marquette12-17=A&North_Dakota_St_Marquette12-20=A&Central_ArkansasMarquette12-28=A&MarquetteCreighton1-1=A&VillanovaMarquette1-4=A&ProvidenceMarquette1-7=A&MarquetteSeton_Hall1-11=A&XavierMarquette1-15=A&MarquetteGeorgetown1-18=A&St__John_sMarquette1-21=A&MarquetteButler1-24=A&MarquetteXavier1-29=A&DePaulMarquette2-1=A&ButlerMarquette2-9=W&MarquetteVillanova2-12=L&CreightonMarquette2-18=L&MarquetteProvidence2-22=L&GeorgetownMarquette2-26=W&Seton_HallMarquette2-29=L&MarquetteDePaul3-3=L&MarquetteSt__John_s3-7=L&x1_type=Post&x1_loc=N&x1_team=Butler&x1_res=L&x2_type=Post&x2_loc=N&x2_team=&x2_res=P&x3_type=Post&x3_loc=N&x3_team=&x3_res=P&x4_type=&x4_loc=&x4_team=&x4_res=&x5_type=&x5_loc=&x5_team=&x5_res=

[Lennys Tap]

They have to get really hot. Need to go 6-3 down the stretch, they play 5/9 on the road, and already played the two "easiest" home games (PC & SJU) having lost both.

The Q1 wins are huge, but my guess would be that Pantelis Xidias will have to shave his head.

I don't think they have a legit chance at 7-11 but you really think that would get DePaul in?

[SaveOD238]

I don't think they have a legit chance at 7-11 but you really think that would get DePaul in?

That would get them to 19-12 with 7 or 8 Q1 wins.  In the 2020 Big East.  So yes, they would be in.

[brewcity77]

I don't think they have a legit chance at 7-11 but you really think that would get DePaul in?

Their Q1 win total would be almost impossible to keep out. It would guarantee 8 Q1 wins because of their schedule. Last year no team with 7 Q1 wins missed the field. Good chance they'd be in Dayton like St John's and ASU who had impressive wins and ugly losses last year.

But this bubble is from what I can see definitely worse than last year and DePaul at 7-11 would have a better resume than either of those high-major Dayton teams had a year ago. DePaul would really benefit from SJU moving back to the top-75 because it would push a Q2 & Q3 loss up to a more acceptable Q1 & Q2.