Magic Number: Wins needed to clinch NCAA bid?

[tower912]

Except I do have a clue what I'm saying. That's the difference.

Some fans are myopic.   Some see context and the big picture.    Find 30 likely at-large teams with better resumes.   If somebody does, I will have a nanosecond of anxiety about a bid.

[willie warrior]

Except I do have a clue what I'm saying. That's the difference.

Opinions. opinios. You do know what they say about opinions?

[BallBoy]

With an entire week off and time to breathe...what do you all think the magic number is to clinch a bid in the NCAA tournament this year? I'm going to go with 4 (20 wins). Here's the remaining schedule:

vs Butler
@ Nova
vs Creighton
@Providence
vs Georgetown
vs Seton Hall
@ Depaul
@ St Johns
Big East Tournament

Hopefully others see 4 wins in this stretch. I truly think 3 probably gets us in (maybe even 2?).

Technically to clinch you would need to win the Big East Tournament so 3-4 tournament games depending on the seed we get.

To be selected as an at large I think MU needs to have .500 conference record so three wins. According to ESPN's latest bubble watch they list 44 teams for 37 spots. MU is listed as should be in. They are obviously projecting some wins. It has Georgetown and Xavier in the need work category. Seton Hall is the only lock in the Big East.

" Marquette would appear to be headed for its second consecutive seed in the Nos. 5 to 8 vicinity. Markus Howard is Markus Howard, of course, and Steve Wojciechowski's group does a commendable job limiting opponents to one shot on offense. Big double-digit victories at home against Villanova and on a neutral floor against USC have the potential to look better and better in the event that those opponents win some games in February and beyond. Note additionally that Marquette has joined Villanova in the Big East's highly-perimeter-oriented club. Sacar Anim and Brendan Bailey have proved themselves to be valuable supporting shooters alongside Howard."

70% of the Big East is in the mix.

They also have Wisconsin in the Should be In category.

12 teams in the Big Ten are in the mix

[PGsHeroes32]

Done deal at 22 which leaves us with 6 more wins in 9 or 10.  Probably with 21.  Bubble at 20.

You are insane.

[wadesworld]

Bored while watching Arsenal, so I ran the numbers on T-Rank.  For all simulations, I had a loss to Butler in the first round of the BET.

8-0- 4 seed
7-1 (L to Nova), 5 seed
6-2 (L to Nova and Providence), 6 seed
5-3 (L to Nova, Providence and DePaul), 6 seed
4-4 (L to Nova, Providence, DePaul and St. John's), 7 seed
3-5 (L to Nova Providence, DePaul, St. John's and Creighton), 7 seed
2-6 (L to Nova, Providence, DePaul, St. John's, Creighton and Butler), 7 seed
1-7 (L to Nova, Providence, DePaul, St. John's, Creighton, Butler and Seton Hall), 10 seed
0-8 (L to everyone, including Georgetown), 6th team out

Bored while watching soccer? No way!

[BallBoy]

Bored while watching soccer EPL? No way!

Fixed it for you. La Liga is where it is at

[GoldenDieners32]

I'd say 18-19 wins and a BE tourney win. Hopefully we can finish the regular season with at least 20 wins

[brewcity77]

1 might be enough.

2 would get us in.

3 would get us a single-digit seed.

4 would give us a comfortable seed.

5+ would have us in the mix for a protected seed.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Opinions. opinios. You do know what they say about opinions?

Yes, everyone has opinions. Some are informed and based on actual knowledge of the situation. Others aren't.

Happy to wager any amount of money you'd like that Marquette gets a bid at 9-9 or 10-8. You suggested just this morning it will require 11-7, so should be easy money, eh?

[bilsu]

10 Big East wins including Big East tournament gets us in.
Maybe in at 9-9 and 0-1, but I will be sweating it out on selection Sunday. Right now we are 1-4 against the top teams and 5-0 against the bottom teams. Finishing 8 and 0 against the bottom four and 1 and 9 against the top 5 would not make me think we deserve a bid.

[PGsHeroes32]

10 Big East wins including Big East tournament gets us in.
Maybe in at 9-9 and 0-1, but I will be sweating it out on selection Sunday. Right now we are 1-4 against the top teams and 5-0 against the bottom teams. Finishing 8 and 0 against the bottom four and 1 and 9 against the top 5 would not make me think we deserve a bid.

We are 100% in with 9 league wins. Does not matter how we get them.

8-10 and 0-1 in BET almost certainly gets us in too.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Opinions. opinios. You do know what they say about opinions?

That yours is wrong?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The correct answer is 2. People are really overestimating how quickly a team can fall a seed line. Hell, 1 might even be enough depending on how the chips fall.

Let's just win em all so we don't have to debate it.

[Dish]

After last season's end of year debacle, who cares? Win the next game, that's all that matters. The rest of the field will figure itself out.

[shoothoops]

I understand the exercise but it's early for me.

MU has 8 conference games left plus conference tournament plus hopefully the NCAA Tournament.

I'd like to see MU win all of its remaining games in all three categories. All of them. Why not?

One game at a time. Next game is Butler at home. I'm all about that game and not much else until the next one. Just play some good ball and go from there. 👍

[WellsstreetWanderer]

Agree Dish   This is a fun team to watch and a special year. Taking each game as they come and what happens ,happens.  Having non-MU fans telling me how much they enjoy watching  us this year.
That said we will be in the BIg Dance

[Cheeks]

Yes, everyone has opinions. Some are informed and based on actual knowledge of the situation. Others aren't.

Happy to wager any amount of money you'd like that Marquette gets a bid at 9-9 or 10-8. You suggested just this morning it will require 11-7, so should be easy money, eh?

I also would like in on this action.  9-9 is GUARANTEED BID and is taking money from a baby.

[Goose]

Barring a complete collapse, they are soundly in. Top five BE teams should be locks.

[BM1090]

I'll say 3 but it's probably 2. Chance with only 1. T rank has us in and not even in Dayton if we win 1 more, but I certainly wouldn't want to test that theory. Has us as an 8 seed with 2 more wins, and a 7 seed at 9-9 or 10-8. 6 seed at 11-7. All of these simulations include a first round BET loss.

[dgies9156]

Here's how I break it down:

1) Win the three you have to win -- DePaul (A), St. John's (A) and Georgetown (H) and we make the tournament, probably with a 7 or 8 seed

2) Add to that winnable games at home -- Creighton and Butler -- and one winnable road game, Providence, and we make the tournament with a five or six seed.

3) Add to those Seton Hall (H) and Villanova (A) and we're a four seed, maybe a three seed.

Win one or more Big East tournament games and we'll improve our seeding by one position. If we win out, we will be a two seed.

Where it gets tricky is we don't win the games we are supposed to win and don't add any "frosting" by the games in categories 2 and 3. Under those circumstances, we either better go deep in the Big East Tournament or we're a bubble team.

This team is playing tough and hard right now. We're in good shape with the Category 1 games and I think we have a fighting shot at the rest of our home games.

The only game where I think we are at serious risk of losing out the gate is Villanova on the road. That's the roughest game left on the schedule.

[willie warrior]

Amazing how some scoopers just cant handle something they disagree with. A question was asked how many wins are needed and if you respond with more than 3, people get their panties in a tight wad which squeezes their gonads.. 20 wins is not a guarantee to get in the dance, but should definitely garner  big consideration. While the BEast is a great BB conference, we should feel secure with 4 more wins. If we cannot win 4 more conference games, then there should be concern. If we get in with 19 wins (3 in last 8 games), then luck played into it. No reason to get panties bunched up.

[MU82]

Don't just want to get in. 6th seed or better, please!

We Are Marquette!

[Badgerhater]

Never stop winning.  Don't be satisfied with 3 wins when you can win 4

[4everwarriors]

The goal should not be getting into the Tournament. Frankly, that should be a given. Now, advancing past game one and beyond is more than reasonable at this point, aina?

[tower912]

Yes, a tourney win would be nice.