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Author Topic: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom  (Read 1472 times)

Cheeks

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #25 on: January 26, 2020, 10:09:59 AM »
Losing to a top 15 team on their floor is to be expected.   The way it happened is the painful part.

Of course.  And people here hang on to the losses forever and the wins for about 10 seconds.   To this day people are still bitching fits about losing to Kansas and pretending as if annihilating#1 Kentucky a week earlier didn’t happen....it’s comical.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #26 on: January 26, 2020, 10:26:10 AM »
The chart shows an updated KenPom game-by-game rating for MU this year versus last year.  This year's team is slightly better rated than last year's team at the same point in the season.

Also, KenPom has MU going 7-3 in its final 10 games, to finish 20-10 (10-8)

However, the three losses, the updated KenPom MU win%

Date                 Opp Rank        Opponent       MU win%
Wed Jan 29           58                  Xavier             50%          Away
Wed Feb 12           18                  Villanova        35%          Away
Sat Feb 29            10                  Seton Hall       50%         Home

MU only has one "tough" game (at Nova), the rest are MU win% 50% or higher.

A special season is still very possible.


« Last Edit: January 26, 2020, 10:30:02 AM by Heisenberg v2.0 »

TAMU Garcia

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #27 on: January 26, 2020, 10:55:32 AM »
Also, KenPom has MU going 7-3 in its final 10 games, to finish 20-10 (10-8)

7-3 would get us to 11-7. If you go game by game, KenPom predicts 7-3. But with so many toss ups he actually projects us to go 6-4.

The way I see it is we have three games where we are favored by 3 or more points (DePaul, Creighton, Georgetown) and 1 game we are we are 3 or more point dogs (@Nova). I think it is fair to expect 3-1 in those 4 games. The remaining 6 games are all projected to be two point games. A fair expectation is splitting those 50-50 games for a record of 6-4 in our final games. Winning more or less of those 50-50 games is certainly possible. I'm still hoping for 11-7.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

Elonsmusk

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #28 on: January 26, 2020, 11:03:54 AM »
7-3 would get us to 11-7. If you go game by game, KenPom predicts 7-3. But with so many toss ups he actually projects us to go 6-4.

The way I see it is we have three games where we are favored by 3 or more points (DePaul, Creighton, Georgetown) and 1 game we are we are 3 or more point dogs (@Nova). I think it is fair to expect 3-1 in those 4 games. The remaining 6 games are all projected to be two point games. A fair expectation is splitting those 50-50 games for a record of 6-4 in our final games. Winning more or less of those 50-50 games is certainly possible. I'm still hoping for 11-7.

Almost peculiar to see how closely our trendline this season is following last seasons.
No doubt there are cultural differences, but sports is important for many Asians.

willie warrior

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #29 on: January 26, 2020, 11:07:28 AM »
And we are .04 points out of 26th.

I always find it interesting to look at the KenPom score rather than the ranking. Like most ranking systems, teams tend to fall on a nice bell curve. Someone can do the actual math to find deviations, but I like looking for natural breaks in the rankings to sort teams into tiers. Here are the tiers I currently see.

6 elite teams:
Kansas +30.18
Duke 2 +28.63
Gonzaga +26.07
Baylor +25.86
Dayton +25.50
West Virginia +25.36

11 very good teams:
San Diego State +23.56
Louisville +22.74
Maryland +22.58
Seton Hall +22.32
Michigan State +22.25
Arizona +21.62
Ohio State +21.24
Iowa +21.06
Butler +20.06
Florida State +19.52
Oregon +19.32

23 at large worthy teams
Villanova +18.64
Colorado +18.51
Purdue +18.40
Penn St. +18.40
Illinois +18.36
BYU +18.31
Houston +18.02
Kentucky +17.86
Texas Tech +17.44
Rutgers +17.44
Marquette +17.40
Arkansas +17.34
Minnesota +17.26
Michigan +17.23
Stanford +17.22
Auburn +17.20
Wisconsin +17.19
Creighton +17.03
LSU +16.85
St. Mary's +16.77
Florida +16.62
Indiana +16.12
Wichita State +15.84

Bubble Teams:
Mississippi State +15.17....

We're right in the middle of that third tier. After the Providence debacle, we fell all the way to 41. In 4 games we have risen to 26th. I think we can play our way to the top of our current tier or even into the second tier pretty easily. We could also play ourselves out of the tournament. I feel decently confident about our play going forward.
Dayton is an elite team and we aren't. That says it all, doesn't it?

jesmu84

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #30 on: January 26, 2020, 11:09:05 AM »
Almost peculiar to see how closely our trendline this season is following last seasons.

Pretty impressive coaching considering the loss of the Hausers, eh?

TAMU Garcia

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #31 on: January 26, 2020, 11:10:22 AM »
Almost peculiar to see how closely our trendline this season is following last seasons.

How do you figure? We've gone up 13 spots in the last 11 days. During the same stretch last season we fell a spot.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

TAMU Garcia

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #32 on: January 26, 2020, 11:12:20 AM »
Dayton is an elite team and we aren't. That says it all, doesn't it?

It tells that any program can land a superstar and ride him for a year. And if it says it about Marquette, it also says it about Kentucky, North Carolina, UCLA, Indiana, Virginia, Villanova...etc.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

fjm

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #33 on: January 26, 2020, 11:12:58 AM »
Dayton is an elite team and we aren't. That says it all, doesn't it?

Are you willing to say the same about how far MU is ahead of UNC and UVA? (INSERT “YEAH BUT THEY WON A NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP SO ITS OK!!!” From half of you)

Teams go through waves. MU is doing just fine. The butler loss is tough to swallow. Should have won. But oh no’s. We lost.

The problem is half these students and people on here don’t think MU is good unless ESPN says they are too 25.

Students can hang all the FIRE WOJO stuff they want. But this team is actually pretty good. We just don’t have the #25 by our name. So freaaaak out everyone. Sheesh.

Retire0

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #34 on: January 26, 2020, 12:12:22 PM »
Dayton is an elite team and we aren't. That says it all, doesn't it?

Yep, more elite than Buzz ever had MU too
New TallTitan bold prediction: Sacar Anim will play in more NBA games than Markus Howard.

TallTitan's bold prediction of Davante Gardner being drafted in 2014.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=27259.msg310060;topicseen#new

Cheeks

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #35 on: January 26, 2020, 12:14:46 PM »
Almost peculiar to see how closely our trendline this season is following last seasons.


But in a tougher conference and without the Hausers when some said here we would crater.  Yes, peculiar.  Must be that the team is doing something right.


Love Stan Johnson’s text
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Elonsmusk

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #36 on: January 26, 2020, 12:15:31 PM »
How do you figure? We've gone up 13 spots in the last 11 days. During the same stretch last season we fell a spot.

I figure from looking at the two lines on the graph.  They for the most part have risen and fallen in similar fashion/timing.  I'm not micro counting the "spots" in a finite timeframe such as 13 spots in the last 11 days. 
No doubt there are cultural differences, but sports is important for many Asians.

Elonsmusk

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #37 on: January 26, 2020, 12:15:54 PM »
It tells that any program can land a superstar and ride him for a year. And if it says it about Marquette, it also says it about Kentucky, North Carolina, UCLA, Indiana, Virginia, Villanova...etc.

Is Markus Howard a superstar?
No doubt there are cultural differences, but sports is important for many Asians.

Elonsmusk

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #38 on: January 26, 2020, 12:17:50 PM »

But in a tougher conference and without the Hausers when some said here we would crater.  Yes, peculiar.  Must be that the team is doing something right.


Love Stan Johnson’s text

Yep.  I agree.  I've been pleasantly surprised with our results this year.  Can you post Stan Johnson's text here?
No doubt there are cultural differences, but sports is important for many Asians.

ATL MU Warrior

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #39 on: January 26, 2020, 12:25:21 PM »
Is Markus Howard a superstar?
No. He’s an elite shooter/scorer.  That’s all.

Elonsmusk

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #40 on: January 26, 2020, 01:20:08 PM »
No. He’s an elite shooter/scorer.  That’s all.

I happen to disagree.  I think Markus is a superstar, that has NOT been coached in such a way to extract the maximum of his talents and teams.
No doubt there are cultural differences, but sports is important for many Asians.

Cheeks

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #41 on: January 26, 2020, 01:24:00 PM »
I happen to disagree.  I think Markus is a superstar, that has NOT been coached in such a way to extract the maximum of his talents and teams.

Of course....he has on,y improved every year and taken big steps...he did that all on his own... no coaching up.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

TAMU Garcia

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #42 on: January 26, 2020, 01:25:01 PM »
Is Markus Howard a superstar?

Fair point. Personally, if I had to build a team around Toppin or a team around Howard, I would go with Toppin but no question that Howard is a superstar. I also think that if Dayton and Marquette switched schedules their numbers would look a little different.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

Elonsmusk

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #43 on: January 26, 2020, 01:42:21 PM »
Of course....he has on,y improved every year and taken big steps...he did that all on his own... no coaching up.

Okay - Let's say Wojo is responsible for all of Markus's INDIVIDUAL improvement - How much improvement has there been on Markus's teams?
No doubt there are cultural differences, but sports is important for many Asians.

TAMU Garcia

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #44 on: January 26, 2020, 01:52:10 PM »
I figure from looking at the two lines on the graph.  They for the most part have risen and fallen in similar fashion/timing.  I'm not micro counting the "spots" in a finite timeframe such as 13 spots in the last 11 days.

I'm still not seeing it. We started last season at 29 and never went higher than 28. By this point in the season we had fallen to 34 but had never gone lower than 36.

This season we started at 19, rose as high as 12, fell as far 41 and have since raised to 28.

Last season I see a team that stayed consistent between 28 and 36. This season I see a team that has had real high highs (12) and lower lows (41). Currently we are on a positive trend whereas last season we were holding steady.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

Cheeks

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #45 on: January 26, 2020, 03:11:37 PM »
Okay - Let's say Wojo is responsible for all of Markus's INDIVIDUAL improvement - How much improvement has there been on Markus's teams?

I posted that information last week....even YOU said you were surprised at how well we are doing in a BETTER conference without the Hausers....did that just happen?  Do the coaches have no contribution to that?  Get real.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Elonsmusk

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Re: Meanwhile....MU moves up to 28th in Ken Pom
« Reply #46 on: January 26, 2020, 04:08:22 PM »
I posted that information last week....even YOU said you were surprised at how well we are doing in a BETTER conference without the Hausers....did that just happen?  Do the coaches have no contribution to that?  Get real.

Well, I was debating with TAMU who ascribed Dayton's success to having a superstar player, and then ATL who posted Markus wasn't a superstar - instead just an elite scorer/shooter. 

I have been pleased with the team's performance, yes.  However, the Butler game is a microcosm of what I feel will be the ultimate storyline of Markus's career - the TEAMS never accomplished as much as they were capable, given his talent - because Wojo has repeatedly encouraged Markus to shoot more/ultimate green light.
No doubt there are cultural differences, but sports is important for many Asians.