More Charts Showing Long Trends in D1 Basketball

[Heisenberg]

I scrapped more data showing the big trends in D1 basketball.

I will show these over several posts as they are easier to follow that way.

Free free to embellish ....

[Heisenberg]

The three-point line was moved back this year.  It is having an impact
(The three-point shot was introduced in 1987)

[Heisenberg]

But it does not really seem to slow the number of attempts (as a percentage of all shots).  This year is still on track to have the second-highest ever, after last year.

[Heisenberg]

The effective field percentage has been remarkably steady since the introduction of the three-point line in 1987.  And note this has happened with the percentage of three-point shots generally rising every year.

[Heisenberg]

As a consequence of the charts above, the average points per game have remained remarkably steady over the last 60+ years.  In fact, the PPG in 1956 was higher than in 2020!

[Heisenberg]

The percentage of shots with an assist has been in a steady decline over the last 13 years.

Can anyone add any color here?

[Heisenberg]

The home winning percentage has been falling in the last quarter-century. Tougher schedules and more conference parity is having the intended effect of making more competitive games. 

[Heisenberg]

Regarding the percentage of possessions resulting in a turnover, it jumped meaningfully this year, breaking its long downtrend.

Can anyone add any color here?

[Heisenberg]

The number of free-throws per game is falling.

Is this because the refs seem to be swallowing the whistle in recent years?

Or has the recent popularity of three-point shooting mean more shooters, that can make free-throws, are on the floor, so fouling is falling out of favor. 

See the next chart.

[Heisenberg]

This percentage of free-throws made was steady for about 50 years and then started rising about 10 years ago.  See the number of three-point attempts above.

The game is moving to "guys that can shoot from distance" and away from big men.  That presumably means they can also make free-throwers.

[rocky_warrior]

This hasn't generated much conversation, but I find the charts really interesting. Thanks for putting them together.

I will add, while Scoop is certainly viewed by thousands of people daily, attachments can only be seen by those logged in.  Maybe we can find a way to get the charts to a wider audience (unless you've already tweeted them, in which case, nevermind).

[Heisenberg]

I have not.  But if you want to and then insert them in the post, go for it.

I have a little more data, I will try to finish it and post more charts later.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

The home winning percentage has been falling in the last quarter-century. Tougher schedules and more conference parity is having the intended effect of making more competitive games.

This is interesting.  Getting easier to win on the road!

[mu_hilltopper]

As an aside .. This is my favorite, easy way to get images online:

1. Get a screenshot.  With Windows, hit Shift-Windows-S and crop the part you want.
2. Go to https://snipboard.io/ and hit ctrl-v/paste.   It will instantly upload your screenshot and give you a jpg link to post anywhere. 

[JakeBarnes]

As an aside .. This is my favorite, easy way to get images online:

1. Get a screenshot.  With Windows, hit Shift-Windows-S and crop the part you want.
2. Go to https://snipboard.io/ and hit ctrl-v/paste.   It will instantly upload your screenshot and give you a jpg link to post anywhere. 

This is a good photo that provides a lot of insight into Marquette basketball. Definitely has the meats.

[Heisenberg]

Thanks, topper, I used the link you provided to embed the charts. Very easy!

I set the width if the charts to "500 pxs.  I could make them larger.  Good size, or larger?

Let me know

Scroll up to see the charts

[Heisenberg]

More charts ....

Offense rebounds are getting harder and harder.

Anyone have any color here to add?

[Heisenberg]

Blocks have leveled out in recent years and are fairly constant

[🏀]

Heisey, great stuff. It's probably a lot to comment on with all the info.

The decline in home wins was probably the most interesting one to me.

[Heisenberg]

Breakdown of turnovers

[Heisenberg]

Heisey, great stuff. It's probably a lot to comment on with all the info.

The decline in home wins was probably the most interesting one to me.

Thanks ....

I think the charts that are most interesting are the increase in 3-point shot attempts and the number of fouls going down.

I'll call this the "Steph Curry" influence.  More and more shots are from guys standing behind the arc.  Hard to foul them when they rotate the ball for an open look.  And no one wants to hack that shooter and give them shoot three foul shots.

These charts collectively show how the game is changing.

[jesmu84]

I find it interesting, at least for this season, that the 3pt made are significantly down, but teams are still shooting them at the same amount.

Can we get a look at MU this year vs last to compare to national trends?

[Heisenberg]

I find it interesting, at least for this season, that the 3pt made are significantly down, but teams are still shooting them at the same amount.

Can we get a look at MU this year vs last to compare to national trends?

MU might not be a good example.  As this chart shows, taken from Kenpom data.  It shows MU's ranking for 3-point % for the 338 D1 teams back a quarter of a century  ... MU is an elite 3-point shooting team, #5 in the country and #1 in 2017.

[Heisenberg]

MU's final Kenpom rank back to Mike Deane

[jesmu84]

MU might not be a good example.  As this chart shows, taken from Kenpom data.  It shows MU's ranking for 3-point % for the 338 D1 teams back a quarter of a century  ... MU is an elite 3-point shooting team, #5 in the country and #1 in 2017.

Thanks.

I was really looking for makes this year compared to number of 3s taken. as compared to last year.