Author Topic: More Charts Showing Long Trends in D1 Basketball (Read 5181 times)

Not A Serious Person · « **on:** January 21, 2020, 11:24:49 AM »

I scrapped more data showing the big trends in D1 basketball.

I will show these over several posts as they are easier to follow that way.

Free free to embellish ....

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #1 on:** January 21, 2020, 11:25:27 AM »

The three-point line was moved back this year. It is having an impact
(The three-point shot was introduced in 1987)

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #2 on:** January 21, 2020, 11:25:58 AM »

But it does not really seem to slow the number of attempts (as a percentage of all shots). This year is still on track to have the second-highest ever, after last year.

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #3 on:** January 21, 2020, 11:26:30 AM »

The effective field percentage has been remarkably steady since the introduction of the three-point line in 1987. And note this has happened with the percentage of three-point shots generally rising every year.

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #4 on:** January 21, 2020, 11:27:03 AM »

As a consequence of the charts above, the average points per game have remained remarkably steady over the last 60+ years. In fact, the PPG in 1956 was higher than in 2020!

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #5 on:** January 21, 2020, 11:27:49 AM »

The percentage of shots with an assist has been in a steady decline over the last 13 years.

Can anyone add any color here?

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #6 on:** January 21, 2020, 11:28:25 AM »

The home winning percentage has been falling in the last quarter-century. Tougher schedules and more conference parity is having the intended effect of making more competitive games.

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #7 on:** January 21, 2020, 11:28:57 AM »

Regarding the percentage of possessions resulting in a turnover, it jumped meaningfully this year, breaking its long downtrend.

Can anyone add any color here?

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #8 on:** January 21, 2020, 11:29:53 AM »

The number of free-throws per game is falling.

Is this because the refs seem to be swallowing the whistle in recent years?

Or has the recent popularity of three-point shooting mean more shooters, that can make free-throws, are on the floor, so fouling is falling out of favor.

See the next chart.

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #9 on:** January 21, 2020, 11:30:17 AM »

This percentage of free-throws made was steady for about 50 years and then started rising about 10 years ago. See the number of three-point attempts above.

The game is moving to "guys that can shoot from distance" and away from big men. That presumably means they can also make free-throwers.

rocky_warrior · « **Reply #10 on:** January 21, 2020, 01:55:38 PM »

This hasn't generated much conversation, but I find the charts really interesting. Thanks for putting them together.

I will add, while Scoop is certainly viewed by thousands of people daily, attachments can only be seen by those logged in. Maybe we can find a way to get the charts to a wider audience (unless you've already tweeted them, in which case, nevermind).

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #11 on:** January 21, 2020, 02:15:08 PM »

I have not. But if you want to and then insert them in the post, go for it.

I have a little more data, I will try to finish it and post more charts later.

Frenns Liquor Depot · « **Reply #12 on:** January 21, 2020, 02:34:38 PM »

Quote from: Heisenberg v2.0 on January 21, 2020, 11:28:25 AM

The home winning percentage has been falling in the last quarter-century. Tougher schedules and more conference parity is having the intended effect of making more competitive games.

This is interesting. Getting easier to win on the road!

mu_hilltopper · « **Reply #13 on:** January 21, 2020, 03:50:59 PM »

As an aside .. This is my favorite, easy way to get images online:

1. Get a screenshot. With Windows, hit Shift-Windows-S and crop the part you want.
2. Go to https://snipboard.io/ and hit ctrl-v/paste. It will instantly upload your screenshot and give you a jpg link to post anywhere.

JakeBarnes · « **Reply #14 on:** January 21, 2020, 04:06:32 PM »

Quote from: mu_hilltopper on January 21, 2020, 03:50:59 PM

As an aside .. This is my favorite, easy way to get images online:

1. Get a screenshot. With Windows, hit Shift-Windows-S and crop the part you want.
2. Go to https://snipboard.io/ and hit ctrl-v/paste. It will instantly upload your screenshot and give you a jpg link to post anywhere.

This is a good photo that provides a lot of insight into Marquette basketball. Definitely has the meats.

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #15 on:** January 21, 2020, 05:05:17 PM »

Thanks, topper, I used the link you provided to embed the charts. Very easy!

I set the width if the charts to "500 pxs. I could make them larger. Good size, or larger?

Let me know

Scroll up to see the charts

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #16 on:** January 21, 2020, 05:07:33 PM »

More charts ....

Offense rebounds are getting harder and harder.

Anyone have any color here to add?

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #17 on:** January 21, 2020, 05:09:20 PM »

Blocks have leveled out in recent years and are fairly constant

🏀 · « **Reply #18 on:** January 21, 2020, 05:09:48 PM »

Heisey, great stuff. It’s probably a lot to comment on with all the info.

The decline in home wins was probably the most interesting one to me.

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #19 on:** January 21, 2020, 05:12:12 PM »

Breakdown of turnovers

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #20 on:** January 21, 2020, 05:19:50 PM »

Quote from: PTM on January 21, 2020, 05:09:48 PM

Heisey, great stuff. It’s probably a lot to comment on with all the info.

The decline in home wins was probably the most interesting one to me.

Thanks ....

I think the charts that are most interesting are the increase in 3-point shot attempts and the number of fouls going down.

I'll call this the "Steph Curry" influence. More and more shots are from guys standing behind the arc. Hard to foul them when they rotate the ball for an open look. And no one wants to hack that shooter and give them shoot three foul shots.

These charts collectively show how the game is changing.

jesmu84 · « **Reply #21 on:** January 21, 2020, 05:40:53 PM »

I find it interesting, at least for this season, that the 3pt made are significantly down, but teams are still shooting them at the same amount.

Can we get a look at MU this year vs last to compare to national trends?

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #22 on:** January 21, 2020, 05:59:37 PM »

Quote from: jesmu84 on January 21, 2020, 05:40:53 PM

I find it interesting, at least for this season, that the 3pt made are significantly down, but teams are still shooting them at the same amount.

Can we get a look at MU this year vs last to compare to national trends?

MU might not be a good example. As this chart shows, taken from Kenpom data. It shows MU's ranking for 3-point % for the 338 D1 teams back a quarter of a century ... MU is an elite 3-point shooting team, #5 in the country and #1 in 2017.

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #23 on:** January 21, 2020, 06:01:50 PM »

MU's final Kenpom rank back to Mike Deane

jesmu84 · « **Reply #24 on:** January 21, 2020, 08:13:41 PM »

Quote from: Heisenberg v2.0 on January 21, 2020, 05:59:37 PM

MU might not be a good example. As this chart shows, taken from Kenpom data. It shows MU's ranking for 3-point % for the 338 D1 teams back a quarter of a century ... MU is an elite 3-point shooting team, #5 in the country and #1 in 2017.

Thanks.

I was really looking for makes this year compared to number of 3s taken. as compared to last year.

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #25 on:** January 22, 2020, 12:43:04 AM »

Quote from: jesmu84 on January 21, 2020, 08:13:41 PM

Thanks.

I was really looking for makes this year compared to number of 3s taken. as compared to last year.

While the first chart above shows the 3p% dropped for all of D1 (remember, they moved the line back) ... it went up for MU

(per game)
Year 3PM 3PA %3p %3P Natl Rank
2020 178 (9.88) 448 (24.88) 39.7% 5
2019 311 (9.14) 791 (23.26) 39.3% 12
2018 359 (10.11) 853 (24.37) 41.5% 3
2017 325 (10.15) 755 (23.59) 43.0% 1

MU has far and away been the best high major 3p% shooting team in the nation for the last four years.

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #26 on:** January 22, 2020, 02:02:27 AM »

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #27 on:** January 22, 2020, 02:06:02 AM »

One more to ponder

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #28 on:** January 22, 2020, 08:09:55 AM »

How are points made in a college basketball game?
The average of all 368 D1 teams
(reminder, the 3-point line was moved back this year)

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #29 on:** January 22, 2020, 08:20:12 AM »

Now compare the chart above to MU ... very different

MU has a much higher percentage of its points from 3P FG than the average team. In 2020, MU ranks 30 of 368 teams. In 2018 it ranked 13 Also, note that MU's percentage went up from last year despite the line moving back.

MU has a much lower percentage of its points from 2P FG than the average team. In 2020, MU ranks 351 of 368 teams. In 2018 it ranked 334 (286 in FTs)

Dr. Blackheart · « **Reply #30 on:** January 22, 2020, 08:47:21 AM »

The shot clock changed a lot of these stats.

Not A Serious Person · « **Reply #31 on:** January 22, 2020, 01:21:46 PM »

Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on January 22, 2020, 08:47:21 AM

The shot clock changed a lot of these stats.

When did they change it (from 35 to 30, and then an o-rebound is 20)?

brewcity77 · « **Reply #32 on:** January 22, 2020, 01:29:04 PM »

Quote from: jesmu84 on January 21, 2020, 05:40:53 PM

I find it interesting, at least for this season, that the 3pt made are significantly down, but teams are still shooting them at the same amount.

Can we get a look at MU this year vs last to compare to national trends?

I wonder about how many "long 2s" have been taken, in terms of shots that were intended to be 3s but were actually inside the new but outside the old arc. I feel like we had a lot of those earlier in the season.

Dr. Blackheart · « **Reply #33 on:** January 22, 2020, 07:45:49 PM »

Quote from: Heisenberg v2.0 on January 22, 2020, 01:21:46 PM

When did they change it (from 35 to 30, and then an o-rebound is 20)?

Sorry I missed this. Here is the history. Good stuff...thanks for doing these.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shot_clock

The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole · « **Reply #34 on:** January 22, 2020, 07:57:17 PM »

Quote from: Heisenberg v2.0 on January 21, 2020, 05:07:33 PM

More charts ....

Offense rebounds are getting harder and harder.

Anyone have any color here to add?

My intuitive belief is that coaches preach more about getting back on defense than crashing the offensive boards.

TAMU, Knower of Ball · « **Reply #35 on:** January 22, 2020, 08:04:43 PM »

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on January 22, 2020, 07:57:17 PM

My intuitive belief is that coaches preach more about getting back on defense than crashing the offensive boards.

Agreed. I also think (though this could be unreliable memory) that over the back calls are more common than they used to be. Which would lead to your point

WhoaJoe2020 · « **Reply #36 on:** January 22, 2020, 08:23:44 PM »

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on January 22, 2020, 07:57:17 PM

My intuitive belief is that coaches preach more about getting back on defense than crashing the offensive boards.

Agreed, not to mention the potential foul on the rebound.

Cheeks · « **Reply #37 on:** January 22, 2020, 08:48:35 PM »

Heisy...enjoyed these very much.

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Author Topic: More Charts Showing Long Trends in D1 Basketball (Read 5181 times)