I hate tomorrow night’s game

[mu03eng]

The only concern I have for MU in this game revolves around TOs.....if MU gets really cavalier with the ball that will definitely keep St John's in it but other than that we match up well. MU can even go small and play 3 guards (Markus, Koby, Symir) and some combination of Sacar, Cain, and Bailey and do really well in this game. I don't expect Jayce to play a ton. St John's is even worse at shooting than X and Georgetown if you can believe it so as long as we continue to sag and not let them get to the rim we should be fine.

Prediction, if we have fewer than 6 live ball TOs this game we win by 15+

[CTWarrior]

We are favored by 8 in KenPom. 78% win probability...which is our highest win probability the rest of the season.  We've all been told by the Intelligencia how impossible it is to win on the road this year in college hoops.

Enough with the chicken little crap.  Expect to win.  We should.  End of story.

Those odds means we lose this game 22% of the time, or somewhere between 1 out of 4 and 1 out of 5.  That's enough for me to worry a bit.  BAsically all the remaining games will make me nervous.

[Galway Eagle]

You do understand the premise of the thread, yes?

Oh and, ahem...

Don't make my comment out to be something it isn't Nickledimer. This has nothing to do with coach, state of program, etc since I've been a fan I've dreaded SJU

In 2013 we needed a buzzer beater in OT to beat St Johns when we were on top of our game. In 2010 we needed a miracle jimmy butler fade away. We got $hit rocked by them at home in 2011, got swept in 2014 once in 2xOT and once not even competitive. 09 and 12 we won very convincingly.

2 easy wins, 3 tough wins, 1 tough loss, 2 blow out losses. Under buzz I dreaded them to.

Wojo's teams have not stacked up great against SJU getting swept in 2015, winning 3 close ones in 2016, splitting blow outs in 2017, splitting in 2018, getting blown out twice and blowing them out once in 2019.

2 easy wins, 3 tough wins, 5 blow out losses. So I've dreaded them under Wojo as well.

[NickelDimer]

Don't make my comment out to be something it isn't Nickledimer. This has nothing to do with coach, state of program, etc since I've been a fan I've dreaded SJU

In 2013 we needed a buzzer beater in OT to beat St Johns when we were on top of our game. In 2010 we needed a miracle jimmy butler fade away. We got $hit rocked by them at home in 2011, got swept in 2014 once in 2xOT and once not even competitive. 09 and 12 we won very convincingly.

2 easy wins, 3 tough wins, 1 tough loss, 2 blow out losses. Under buzz I dreaded them to.

Wojo's teams have not stacked up great against SJU getting swept in 2015, winning 3 close ones in 2016, splitting blow outs in 2017, splitting in 2018, getting blown out twice and blowing them out once in 2019.

2 easy wins, 3 tough wins, 5 blow out losses. So I've dreaded them under Wojo as well.

I’m not singling you out but you have to admit the irony of 82’s “I’m an authority and speak for the majority” post followed be yours was pretty funny.

[WarriorDad]

St John’s was a game last year that the Hausers struggled defensively with their quickness.  We are better defensively now.  The blowout in the BET, they had to play back to back, MU was fresher.

[Jay Bee]

Lotsa 6'6"-ish guys for StJ's... don't love that.

[WarriorDad]

This. Dreading a game like this is an indictment on the state of the program in my opinion.

I cannot recall a year in the last 40 that there were games against teams we should beat on paper that I did not feel a need for concern.  It did not matter who the coach was.  With losses against UWGreen Bay, Maine, DePaul, Stetson, Miami of Ohio, Omaha, and others to prove the point.   Conference games are always reasons for concern.

[GooooMarquette]

We got this.

[Scoop Snoop]

St John’s was a game last year that the Hausers struggled defensively with their quickness.  We are better defensively now.  The blowout in the BET, they had to play back to back, MU was fresher.

I think you nailed it. They played like psychos in the 2 regular season games  vs. MU. My wife and I were at the BET game. I enjoyed the revenge/blowout win and I was pumped, thinking our (then) recent problems were behind us.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

The intention of starting this thread was cover your ass material by Cheeks, so he can rationalize a potential loss to a team we have no business losing to tomorrow night.  Now, if he sincerely feels nervous about this game, well, that sure illustrates a lack of confidence in our coach/program here in Year 6.

P.S.  I personally don't think Duke or Kentucky fans worry too much about losing games on their home court against the 77th ranked team in the country with a coach in his first year on the job.

Name the last substantive post by Chicos. Logorrhea is one of the many  social disorders that Sybil suffers from.  Clearly off his meds

[BM1090]

This was a nightmare matchup for us last year. SJU played 5 out with Ponds, Heron, Simon, Figueroa, Clark. 4 of our 5 starters were Howard, Hauser, Hauser, John. Theo was forced to play outside due to the 5 out which killed our rim protection. The two Hausers didn't have the footspeed to guard any of the Johnnies except Clark, who Theo was already guarding. Howard couldn't handle Ponds. Sacar was the only guy who could guard anyone.

We match up a a lot better this year. I'm guessing Howard will spend most of his time on Rutherford and Williams. We have Kobe, Sacar and Bailey to throw on Dunn, Heron, and Figourua. Jayce and Theo can cover Roberts when he's in and Champagnie when Roberts is out. Roberts presents no outside threat at all.

I do expect it will get ugly at times as SJU forces a ton of turnovers and they are longer and more athletic than Georgetown. But the matchups are far better this year and SJU is shooting 28% on 3s compared to 35% last year. I'd expect a win.

[Elonsmusk]

This was a nightmare matchup for us last year. SJU played 5 out with Ponds, Heron, Simon, Figueroa, Clark. 4 of our 5 starters were Howard, Hauser, Hauser, John. Theo was forced to play outside due to the 5 out which killed our rim protection. The two Hausers didn't have the footspeed to guard any of the Johnnies except Clark, who Theo was already guarding. Howard couldn't handle Ponds. Sacar was the only guy who could guard anyone.

We match up a a lot better this year. I'm guessing Howard will spend most of his time on Rutherford and Williams. We have Kobe, Sacar and Bailey to throw on Dunn, Heron, and Figourua. Jayce and Theo can cover Roberts when he's in and Champagnie when he's Roberts is out. Roberts presents no outside threat at all.

I do expect it will get ugly at times as SJU forces a ton of turnovers and they are far more long and athletic than Georgetown. But the matchups are far better this year and SJU is shooting 28% on 3s compared to 35% last year. I'd expect a win.

Nailed it with this post.  The one area of concern for me is how we handle their pressure.  We don't appear to be too confident/comfortable handling full court pressure.

[BM1090]

One positive is we've really improved our turnover rate as the season has gone on. We're down to 18.5% which is 118th in the country. I believe we were in the 300s at one point this year.

In conference games, we're 2nd best (15.7%) behind SJU (14%).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This game makes me nervous not because I don't think we will win (I think we win by double digits) but because it is high risk, low reward. Beat St. John's at home and no one cares. Lose to St. John's at home and that's a significant red mark on your tournament resume. And if you have been paying attention at all, upsets are in vogue this season.

I like that their best big man isn't accurate outside of 5 feet. I hate that they sometimes go small and put freshman stretch 4 Julian Champagnie at the 5. Wojo has to let him shoot and tell Theo and Jayce to stay home when they are defending him.

I think Bailey can handle Figueroa and Sacar/McEwen can handle Heron. I would purposefully play a little looser on Rasheem Dun when he is in the game and try to force St. John's to put the ball in his hands. The couple times I have seen Dunn play he tends to attack the rim with reckless abandon and no clear plan. I think John and Johnson could eat him alive if we can tempt him in.

What I don't like is that SJU is a hard team to game plan for. Wojo's gameplanning strength is coming up with plans to shut down or limit top scorers. SJU's roster is a bit all over the place. Every one in their rotation is capable of putting up a goose egg or a double digit scoring effort. Can't game plan for any specific players because any of them could have a great or off night.

[MU82]

One positive is we've really improved our turnover rate as the season has gone on. We're down to 18.5% which is 118th in the country. I believe we were in the 300s at one point this year.

In conference games, we're 2nd best (15.7%) behind SJU (14%).

I'd felt we had gotten better at this, but the numbers really drive it home. Thanks for providing.

If we take care of the ball and rebound, we should win with room to spare.

[Herman Cain]

Always enjoy playing The Johnnies on Al's night.

An excellent research report by Ben Steele from a couple of years ago on Als Night.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/2018/02/21/author-joseph-declan-moran-discusses-al-mcguire-connection-between-mu-st-johns/357018002/

[MU82]

This game makes me nervous not because I don't think we will win (I think we win by double digits) but because it is high risk, low reward. Beat St. John's at home and no one cares. Lose to St. John's at home and that's a significant red mark on your tournament resume. And if you have been paying attention at all, upsets are in vogue this season.

I like that their best big man isn't accurate outside of 5 feet. I hate that they sometimes go small and put freshman stretch 4 Julian Champagnie at the 5. Wojo has to let him shoot and tell Theo and Jayce to stay home when they are defending him.

I think Bailey can handle Figueroa and Sacar/McEwen can handle Heron. I would purposefully play a little looser on Rasheem Dun when he is in the game and try to force St. John's to put the ball in his hands. The couple times I have seen Dunn play he tends to attack the rim with reckless abandon and no clear plan. I think John and Johnson could eat him alive if we can tempt him in.

What I don't like is that SJU is a hard team to game plan for. Wojo's gameplanning strength is coming up with plans to shut down or limit top scorers. SJU's roster is a bit all over the place. Every one in their rotation is capable of putting up a goose egg or a double digit scoring effort. Can't game plan for any specific players because any of them could have a great or off night.

I like your take, TAMU, except the part about upsets being in vogue this season. Some will ignore that simple fact, instead labeling it as an "excuse." You gotta pay attention, my friend: Marquette is the ONLY team that loses games it "should win."

[Goose]

MU82

I do not even know what qualifies as an upset this season. TAMU is right, I have said college ball has been down for 4-5 years, but this year is the craziest I have ever seen. That said, I would be mildly surprises if St. John's finds a way to beat MU tomorrow night.

[Loose Cannon]

Dread is  too strong a word for me, I prefer caution.  If there is no caution then your not paying attention to what's  been happening in the CBB world.  To borrow a phrase  "it's been upset city."  And if you go in blindly thinking you're gonna win your setting yourself for a Trap game.  My thoughts.

[Pakuni]

I hate St. John's.

[rocky_warrior]

We don't appear to be too confident/comfortable handling full court pressure.

I agree, MU does not appear confident with the press break... But on the other hand they've generally been successful getting it across, and getting into the offense.

I *think* they're being deliberate with it, and trying to avoid the turnover vs going for the easy bucket.

[BM1090]

I agree, MU does not appear confident with the press break... But on the other hand they've generally been successful getting it across, and getting into the offense.

I *think* they're being deliberate with it, and trying to avoid the turnover vs going for the easy bucket.

Agree with this. The easiest way to prevent issues with the press is just to stop them from putting the ball in the basket. Our defense can make it way easier for our offense if we can get some stops.

[Cheeks]

I thought they looked really good against Arizona away from NYC (beat them) and on Saturday should have beaten Seton Hall at home.  They have talent.  This will be a tough game, don't like that is it on a weekday night either.  Hope the fans come and bring it....glad the students are here for this one.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I hate St. John's.

Said another way, and perhaps more efficiently:  "SJU Sucks!"

[MuMark]

MU opens minus 9