Georgetown Game

[BM1090]

Opportunity for a road Q1 win.

They have been playing better since the mass transfers. We will likely be a 2-3 point underdog.

Good offensive team (#21 KP) but pretty poor on defense (#101). They excel on the offensive boards and are a capable 3P shooting team. They are long at the 4 and 5 with Pickett and Yurtseven but they also start 3 guards, none taller than 6'3. They have a short bench as they lost 4 scholarship players to transfer/dismissal. 7 man rotation.

Overall I think we match up okay. They don't have the length at the guard position to bother Markus much and they have been awful at defending the 3P line. They will have capable shooters at the 1-4 positions at all times so it makes it tough to double the post.

Expecting a close game and think we'll get a victory.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think we match up pretty well.  Get some fouls on McClung, Yurtseven and Pickett, and they have little else.  Should be a good game, but definitely one we need to steal. 

[Galway Eagle]

On holy land of hoops a Hoya fan mentioned a couple Hoyas have the flu apparently. Shocked they beat Creighton but can't imagine that streak continues with sick players and no depth.

[MUfan12]

I hope everyone on that MU bench remembers that game last March.

Surprisingly bullish about MU's chances tomorrow. I think the Hoyas keep it close, but MU pulls away late.

[skianth16]

Georgetown seems a little like us in the way they can be pretty inconsistent from one night to the next. And that was even true last year for them. I think if we can get them off their gameplan early on, we'll be in good shape. Our guards can hang with their guards, but our bigs may have some issues containing Yurtseven. If we can keep Theo and Jayce out of foul trouble, I like our chances at picking up a win on the road.

[Eldon]

Opportunity for a road Q1 win.

They have been playing better since the mass transfers. We will likely be a 2-3 point underdog.

Good offensive team (#21 KP) but pretty poor on defense (#101). They excel on the offensive boards and are a capable 3P shooting team. They are long at the 4 and 5 with Pickett and Yurtseven but they also start 3 guards, none taller than 6'3. They have a short bench as they lost 4 scholarship players to transfer/dismissal. 7 man rotation.

Overall I think we match up okay. They don't have the length at the guard position to bother Markus much and they have been awful at defending the 3P line. They will have capable shooters at the 1-4 positions at all times so it makes it tough to double the post.

Expecting a close game and think we'll get a victory.

It's a great example of the role that chemistry plays in winning.

[WhoaJoe2020]

Everything went Marquettes way at home against X.

I don't expect the same on the road at GU

Adversity reveals character.  If the team performs like they did against X on the road at GU, it might be time to start getting excited.

Eds departure may have focused the guys attention for the X game.
They need to maintain that focus and intensity for GU.

GO MU!

[muguru]

Zero reason they should lose this game. Will they?? That is yet to be determined, but they really shouldn't.

[bradforster]

I'm searching for the line. 

[BM1090]

Zero reason they should lose this game. Will they?? That is yet to be determined, but they really shouldn't.

Zero reason for an underdog to lose a game. Ever.

[BM1090]

Georgetown is -4. No reason MU should lose.

[tower912]

Balderdash.    Winning conference road games is never easy.     However, this is on paper one of the better opportunities to capture one of those unicorns.     

[BM1090]

Balderdash.    Winning conference road games is never easy.     However, this is on paper one of the better opportunities to capture one of those unicorns.   

Was being sarcastic, referring to guru's earlier post.

I do think we'll win. I was just pointing out that it's absurd to say a 4 point underdog should never lose a game.

I also realize I'm being a jerk about it so I will keep quiet going forward.

[tower912]

My bad.   I missed the sarcasm.    Shame on me.   

[MuMark]

Pomeroy gives us a 44% chance to win.

[Cheeks]

Zero reason they should lose this game. Will they?? That is yet to be determined, but they really shouldn't.

Zero reason.  Hmm.  Uhm, ok.


Ken Pom picks us to lose

Georgetown has already beaten Creighton, Syracuse, Oklahoma State, Texas, etc.  None of them great, all of them capable.   Many reasons....zero is not correct.  Go Warriors.

[WhoaJoe2020]

Pomeroy gives us a 44% chance to win.

I like our chances.

[muguru]

I love the posters "readying" the excuses in case things go wrong. "it's tough to win on the road yada yada yada". Look, if MU can't beat a team that plays 7 guys, plays bad defense and flat out aren't very good, then they have NO business being in the NCAA tournament. It's as simple as that. If they don't beat Georgetown on the road, who will they beat on the road??

If it's tough to win on the road, why do teams do it all the time?? Why in the HELL did Providence walk into MU and win?? Now if this was at Butler, sure, I'd say you have a point, but this ain't Butler.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I love the posters "readying" the excuses in case things go wrong. "it's tough to win on the road yada yada yada". Look, if MU can't beat a team that plays 7 guys, plays bad defense and flat out aren't very good, then they have NO business being in the NCAA tournament.

I'll inform Gonzaga (lost to Michigan when they were a favorite), Baylor (lost to Washington, 3 spots above Georgetown, on a neutral court), Duke (Stephen F. Austin (H) and @Clemson), Auburn (@Bama), Butler (Hall at home), Kansas (lost to Nova and Baylor when favored), San Diego State (needed last second shot to be beat sub 300 San Jose State at home), Oregon (@Colo and @Washington State), Florida State (@Pitt and @Indiana), and Kentucky (Evansville at home, Utah, and @South Carolina), that they have no business being in the NCAA tournament.

Now that we've removed the top 10 teams, should be plenty of room for all those teams that never lose games to teams they shouldn't (or even to teams they should!).

[MU82]

I'll inform Gonzaga (lost to Michigan when they were a favorite), Baylor (lost to Washington, 3 spots above Georgetown, on a neutral court), Duke (Stephen F. Austin (H) and @Clemson), Auburn (@Bama), Butler (Hall at home), Kansas (lost to Nova and Baylor when favored), San Diego State (needed last second shot to be beat sub 300 San Jose State at home), Oregon (@Colo and @Washington State), Florida State (@Pitt and @Indiana), and Kentucky (Evansville at home, Utah, and @South Carolina), that they have no business being in the NCAA tournament.

Now that we've removed the top 10 teams, should be plenty of room for all those teams that never lose games to teams they shouldn't (or even to teams they should!).

Yep, any team that loses a game guru thinks they should have won is automatically disqualified from taking part in the NCAA tournament.

BTW ... Michigan, a team that had risen to No. 5 in the nation and was being touted by some as the best in the land in early December is now 0-5 on the road. Three of the losses were to unranked Illinois, unranked Minnesota and unranked Iowa.

Too bad they won't be allowed into the NCAA tournament.

[Shooter McGavin]

Agree with the sentiment that any team on the road could lose.  But we should not lose this game if we want to be a tournament team that isn't biting their finger nails on selection Sunday. This is just as much as a must win game as the Xavier game in that regard.  No one is asking for a road win against Seton Hall or Villanova.  This is a road win against an average GT team. Let's get the job done. Go MU!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

On paper, I like how we match up with Georgetown. They check a lot of boxes for us:

1. 7 man rotation that can quickly be decimated by our ability to get to the foul line.

2. Atrocious three point defense. 42.4% of their opponents' field goals are three pointers (305th) and they are making 36% of them (284th). Plays right into our strength.

3. They play uptempo. We are undefeated against top 100 tempo teams this season though with a small sample size.

4. They have accurate three point shooters but barely take any. Only 29.1% of their attempts are from three (330th). Should allow us to keep the bigs home in the paint where they are their most effective.

Georgetown's lineup is interesting. One of their two 7 footers will be on the floor at any given time. Yurtseven is a beast averaging a double double while Wahab has potential but is not much beyond a garden variety backup center. They only have one forward on the roster, 6-9 Jamorko Pickett. He used to be an exclusive spot up shooter but has changed his game to be more of a slashing forward. They'll likely play him max minutes as he is the only true 4 in the rotation.

When Pickett is on the bench, Ewing either has to go with walk on/lukewarm body George Muresan or one of the guards. Muresan has 7 career points in 4 seasons and is shooting 1/8 from the field this season. The guard who will get put at the 4 is 6'3" Jagan Mosely. He's built like Derrick Wilson and plays a lot bigger than he is. The other guards are all 6'3" or 6'2". The best of them is the very punchable Mac McClung. He's a very reckless and inconsistent player. He's capable of burying an opponent or the Hoyas all by himself. Georgetown is 1-4 when McClung shoots under 33% from the the field (with the one win being against Central Arkansas). They are 11-1 when he shoots 33% or above. All of their best wins (@OKST, CUSE, GAST, SJU, CREI, TEX, @SMU) have featured a 19+ point performance from McClung.

If I were the coach, I'd experiment with a couple of Bailey/Cain lineups for this one. I think Cain is capable enough to defend Pickett while Bailey's length could do wonders on McClung. I think 6'2" McClung would really struggle against Bailey's 7'0" wingspan. I'd focus my effort on corralling McClung into a bad game. Yurtseven is consistent and will get his, but he can't bury a team. Other than one outlier against Samford, Yurtseven never goes much above or below his average. I would throw the occassional double team into the post on Yurtseven from different positions just to keep him looking over his shoulder.

The glass could decide this game. Hoyas are elite on the offensive glass (top 25 in the nation). This is how their offense is ranked so highly by KP despite a pedestrian eFG%. Every defender will need to crash the glass and know that the Hoyas are unlikely to make them pay with a kickout for a three pointer. The rebounding effort against X gives me hope for this one.

[Shooter McGavin]

Nice breakdown of the game.  Thanks.

[Elonsmusk]

Georgetown is -4. No reason MU should lose.

I like that line for MU. I think MU wins. I recall some Scoopers mocking the hire of Ewing. He's done a solid job in his short time there.

[Goose]

I think this game will tell a lot about the prospects for rest of season. With the Ed departure several days removed, I am anxious to see how the team responds. A big win could set the tone, as would paying an egg.
I felt anything was possible, good or bad, a week ago and now I think they are at a critical crossroads. If Ed left because he was disappointed in playing time, so be it, but if he left because of a disgruntled locker room things could south. My gut says it is a combination of the two, but time to steady the ship.