Central Arkansas thoughts

[tower912]

Thank you for actual numbers and an actual formula/explanation.    Hope you don't get attacked for it.   

[Cheeks]

The formula for TO% is: TO/(FGA-OR+TO+0.475xFTA)

Guards are always going to have higher tpg, to per 40, and to per 100 possessions because of the nature of the position. TO% is the best way to determine if an individual player is turning the ball over too much.

If anyone is curious here are those numbers for our team from most to least TO prone (numbers per KenPom).

Morrow 27.8%
McEwen 25.1%
Elliott 24.3%
Torrence 24.2%
Johnson 21.0%
Anim 19.6%
Cain 18.3%
Howard: 16.9%
John 15.2%
Bailey 11.3%

What's interesting is apparently different sites are using different formulas...not updated with yesterday's games, but McEwen didn't play and his percentage is much different on Fox Sports NCAA basketball site than the one you posted.  No idea what the changes in the formulas are.


1 Morrow, Ed 28.2 %
2 Torrence, Symir 26.1%
3 Johnson, Jayce C   24.4%
4 Elliott, Greg G  22.7%
4 McEwen, Koby G   22.7%
6 Anim, Sacar G-F   16.5%
7 Cain, Jamal F   15.9%
8 John, Theo F   15.3%
9 Howard, Markus G   14.2%
10 Bailey, Brendan F  9.5%

And Sports Reference.com has it this way

Rk   Player   TOV%
9   Ed Morrow   26.7
10   Symir Torrence   25
6   Koby McEwen   22.5
7   Greg Elliott   21.9
8   Jayce Johnson   20.8
4   Jamal Cain   16.8
2   Sacar Anim   16.2
1   Markus Howard   14.1
5   Theo John   14
3   Brendan Bailey   9.5

[MU82]

The formula for TO% is: TO/(FGA-OR+TO+0.475xFTA)

Guards are always going to have higher tpg, to per 40, and to per 100 possessions because of the nature of the position. TO% is the best way to determine if an individual player is turning the ball over too much.

If anyone is curious here are those numbers for our team from most to least TO prone (numbers per KenPom).

Morrow 27.8%
McEwen 25.1%
Elliott 24.3%
Torrence 24.2%
Johnson 21.0%
Anim 19.6%
Cain 18.3%
Howard: 16.9%
John 15.2%
Bailey 11.3%

Thanks for this, TAMU. Interesting.

One of the "little things" that encouraged me during yesterday's game was Morrow took a pass on the block. And instead of backing all the way down and likely getting called either for traveling or an offensive foul, he kicked the ball out to an open shooter (Symir or Elliott, I think?) for an easy 3.

Our bigs need to do that more often. A good way to avoid turnovers and just basically help the offense.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

What's interesting is apparently different sites are using different formulas...not updated with yesterday's games, but McEwen didn't play and his percentage is much different on Fox Sports NCAA basketball site than the one you posted.  No idea what the changes in the formulas are.


1 Morrow, Ed 28.2 %
2 Torrence, Symir 26.1%
3 Johnson, Jayce C   24.4%
4 Elliott, Greg G  22.7%
4 McEwen, Koby G   22.7%
6 Anim, Sacar G-F   16.5%
7 Cain, Jamal F   15.9%
8 John, Theo F   15.3%
9 Howard, Markus G   14.2%
10 Bailey, Brendan F  9.5%

Just like ESPN always got RPI wrong, most sites get advanced stats wrong. It may be they have the wrong formula or it may be that their data entry interns make mistakes. For the future, KenPom is the only place you need to go to get accurate information about advanced stats.

[Markusquette]

Regards to walkons:

Wojo has had a very short "leash" when it comes to putting in walkons. One that needs to extend.

But to interject with "ectera player" may get hurt.. They may get hurt in practice or a game. UT playing them an extra 2 minutes does not increase injury factor at all.

Fully agree. Actually pissed me off when he sent them out there with 1 minute left. That's embarrassing. An extra 5 minutes of Theo, Ed, Jayce, Jamal, Brendan won't make any difference vs. CAS. Let these guys get some time. After all, they may never get to step on the court again this season.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Fully agree. Actually pissed me off when he sent them out there with 1 minute left. That's embarrassing. An extra 5 minutes of Theo, Ed, Jayce, Jamal, Brendan won't make any difference vs. CAS. Let these guys get some time. After all, they may never get to step on the court again this season.

It's not about making a difference vs CA. The primary tool for seeding used by the selection committee is NET. NET factors in efficiency stats which means that every possession, even garbage time against a sub 300 cupcake, matters. Our NET rank improved from 50 to 37 yesterday. If the lead had shrunk from 50 to 35 in the last 5 minutes because Wojo put the walk ons in, the jump would have been significantly less.

It seems silly, but at the end of the season, us beating CA by 35 instead of 50 may be the difference in an entire seedline. I'd rather the walk ons never play then have our tournament seed effected.

I think Wojo's approach is the right one. He waits until the other team puts their walk ons in before sending ours in. I wish there was a way for the coaches to communicate and agree to send the walk ons in towards the end if the game is out of hand.

[Cheeks]

Just like ESPN always got RPI wrong, most sites get advanced stats wrong. It may be they have the wrong formula or it may be that their data entry interns make mistakes. For the future, KenPom is the only place you need to go to get accurate information about advanced stats.

I like KenPom a lot.  I deal with STATS.Inc, SportRadar, Genius Sports fairly routinely (usually once a quarter) as they are all partners of ours...most of the big boys take their stats from sources like that. Ken Pom gets his stats from STATS.Inc.   NCAA is partnered with Genius, NFL, NHL, NBA with SportRadar...will have to reach out to STATS.Inc to understand what the differences are and will be happy to report here if interested.

I doubt very much it has anything to do with interns inputting data as I'm hard pressed to know of anyone at this level even at the course doing those things anymore.  The data from individual games (TAMU, USC, UCLA, MU, etc) can have errors based on the scorekeeper's inputs, but the data feeds are directly uplinked to the stats companies usually and aggregated from there.  Garbage in garbage out at the source.  People aren't hand inputting the stats at STATS, SportRadar, etc.

[Elonsmusk]

It's not about making a difference vs CA. The primary tool for seeding used by the selection committee is NET. NET factors in efficiency stats which means that every possession, even garbage time against a sub 300 cupcake, matters. Our NET rank improved from 50 to 37 yesterday. If the lead had shrunk from 50 to 35 in the last 5 minutes because Wojo put the walk ons in, the jump would have been significantly less.

It seems silly, but at the end of the season, us beating CA by 35 instead of 50 may be the difference in an entire seedline. I'd rather the walk ons never play then have our tournament seed effected.

I think Wojo's approach is the right one. He waits until the other team puts their walk ons in before sending ours in. I wish there was a way for the coaches to communicate and agree to send the walk ons in towards the end if the game is out of hand.

Do you feel Wisconsin's 20 point win on the road over at the time Number 27 Tennessee also helped our rating rise yesterday?  The effects of that game sure moved the needle on KenPom rankings for both teams TN fell 19 spots and WI rose 16 spots.

Or am I wrong in that it doesn't matter what our opponents do in their games?

[BM1090]

Do you feel Wisconsin's 20 point win on the road over at the time Number 27 Tennessee also helped our rating rise yesterday?  The effects of that game sure moved the needle on KenPom rankings for both teams TN fell 19 spots and WI rose 16 spots.

Or am I wrong in that it doesn't matter what our opponents do in their games?

That absolutely helped us. So did Purdue demolishing Central Michigan.

[Jay Bee]

I was using the following...highest turnovers per game (3.5), per 100 possessionS (6.3) and per 40 minutes (4.6) he does.

If there is a different stat, happy to acknowledge...just not aware of what you might be referencing.  That was the turnover % I was referencing.

You’re way off on this. Do betta

[Jay Bee]

I like KenPom a lot.  I deal with STATS.Inc, SportRadar, Genius Sports fairly routinely (usually once a quarter) as they are all partners of ours...most of the big boys take their stats from sources like that. Ken Pom gets his stats from STATS.Inc.   NCAA is partnered with Genius, NFL, NHL, NBA with SportRadar...will have to reach out to STATS.Inc to understand what the differences are and will be happy to report here if interested.

I doubt very much it has anything to do with interns inputting data as I'm hard pressed to know of anyone at this level even at the course doing those things anymore.  The data from individual games (TAMU, USC, UCLA, MU, etc) can have errors based on the scorekeeper's inputs, but the data feeds are directly uplinked to the stats companies usually and aggregated from there.  Garbage in garbage out at the source.  People aren't hand inputting the stats at STATS, SportRadar, etc.

Using sports-reference for your stats is like taking a dump, wiping, and using the dung for your stats. C’mon dude

[brewcity77]

Do you feel Wisconsin's 20 point win on the road over at the time Number 27 Tennessee also helped our rating rise yesterday?  The effects of that game sure moved the needle on KenPom rankings for both teams TN fell 19 spots and WI rose 16 spots.

Or am I wrong in that it doesn't matter what our opponents do in their games?

It certainly helped, and what our opponents do does matter. Buttheir results impact us less than our own and they (UW & Purdue) make up just 1/6th of our opponents (to date) combined.

Consider when our opponents started I believe 8-0 in Friday/Saturday games before we tipped against K-State. Our Pomeroy ranking went from 29 to 26 before the tip because of those results, then our win over KSU jumped us up from 26 to 23. So 8 combined results had the same rank impact as our 8-point win (when we were favored by I believe 2 or 3).

[Cheeks]

Using sports-reference for your stats is like taking a dump, wiping, and using the dung for your stats. C’mon dude

I used two sources...one was Sports Reference while the other was Fox Sports...I believe Fox is still getting their stats from STATS.Inc (well, technically now STATS Perform as they changed their name)...at one point Fox owned STATS but sold it like 5 years ago.  If FOX is still using STATS and KenPom is, that makes for an interesting question regarding the disparity of the results.

[Cheeks]

You’re way off on this. Do betta

Aye aye

[LloydsLegs]

It would have been better if you had just stopped after saying you were wrong (which was progress). 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I like KenPom a lot.  I deal with STATS.Inc, SportRadar, Genius Sports fairly routinely (usually once a quarter) as they are all partners of ours...most of the big boys take their stats from sources like that. Ken Pom gets his stats from STATS.Inc.   NCAA is partnered with Genius, NFL, NHL, NBA with SportRadar...will have to reach out to STATS.Inc to understand what the differences are and will be happy to report here if interested.

I doubt very much it has anything to do with interns inputting data as I'm hard pressed to know of anyone at this level even at the course doing those things anymore.  The data from individual games (TAMU, USC, UCLA, MU, etc) can have errors based on the scorekeeper's inputs, but the data feeds are directly uplinked to the stats companies usually and aggregated from there.  Garbage in garbage out at the source.  People aren't hand inputting the stats at STATS, SportRadar, etc.

I wasn't serious about the interns.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Do you feel Wisconsin's 20 point win on the road over at the time Number 27 Tennessee also helped our rating rise yesterday?  The effects of that game sure moved the needle on KenPom rankings for both teams TN fell 19 spots and WI rose 16 spots.

Or am I wrong in that it doesn't matter what our opponents do in their games?

Yes it did help us. As did Purdue smacking CMU as 1090 pointed out. Us shellacking CA helped more.

[Cheeks]

I wasn't serious about the interns.

Gotcha.  Well, they provide a valuable service, can be very heady at times. 

[Markusquette]

It's not about making a difference vs CA. The primary tool for seeding used by the selection committee is NET. NET factors in efficiency stats which means that every possession, even garbage time against a sub 300 cupcake, matters. Our NET rank improved from 50 to 37 yesterday. If the lead had shrunk from 50 to 35 in the last 5 minutes because Wojo put the walk ons in, the jump would have been significantly less.

It seems silly, but at the end of the season, us beating CA by 35 instead of 50 may be the difference in an entire seedline. I'd rather the walk ons never play then have our tournament seed effected.

I think Wojo's approach is the right one. He waits until the other team puts their walk ons in before sending ours in. I wish there was a way for the coaches to communicate and agree to send the walk ons in towards the end if the game is out of hand.

Yeah that is pretty silly. Seems to me the seeding should be based on the eye test too and not just numbers but I guess that's too much to keep track of. Sucks to see guys who work just as hard as the scholarship players not get a chance to play.

Let me ask you, how long has seeding used NET? Would Crean and Buzz have been as concerned with it as Wojo during their time here, or is it more recently affecting seeding?

[brewcity77]

Yeah that is pretty silly. Seems to me the seeding should be based on the eye test too and not just numbers but I guess that's too much to keep track of. Sucks to see guys who work just as hard as the scholarship players not get a chance to play.

Let me ask you, how long has seeding used NET? Would Crean and Buzz have been as concerned with it as Wojo during their time here, or is it more recently affecting seeding?

NET started last year to replace RPI. It didn't matter during Crean and Buzz's time here because the RPI didn't take margins into account.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Outside of Frozena’s senior season Buzz rarely played walk ons either. On the Elite 8 team, Dylan Flood played a total of four minutes over four games. The year before, he had no walk ons.

This really isn’t a big deal.

[wadesworld]

Outside of Frozena’s senior season Buzz rarely played walk ons either. On the Elite 8 team, Dylan Flood played a total of four minutes over four games. The year before, he had no walk ons.

This really isn’t a big deal.

No kidding.  Especially when it's the only game you have between December 20th and your first Big East game on January 1st.  If Wojo wants to play his guys for 39 of the 40 minutes in a blowout with 3 days between games so be it.  If he wants to run the score up to help his NET/KenPom/other rating systems so be it.  If he wants to get looks at double big lineups or zone defenses so be it.

[Cheeks]

No kidding.  Especially when it's the only game you have between December 20th and your first Big East game on January 1st.  If Wojo wants to play his guys for 39 of the 40 minutes in a blowout with 3 days between games so be it.  If he wants to run the score up to help his NET/KenPom/other rating systems so be it.  If he wants to get looks at double big lineups or zone defenses so be it.

Agree completely

[cheebs09]

Yeah that is pretty silly. Seems to me the seeding should be based on the eye test too and not just numbers but I guess that's too much to keep track of. Sucks to see guys who work just as hard as the scholarship players not get a chance to play.

Let me ask you, how long has seeding used NET? Would Crean and Buzz have been as concerned with it as Wojo during their time here, or is it more recently affecting seeding?

I think Buzz has called timeouts late in a blowout to draw up a play to maximize the NET ranking.

[Lennys Tap]

Glad to see that not knowing the first thing about advanced stats doesn’t stop a certain someone from leading the Scoop league in postings regarding them. Guy needs a minimum of 28 days in Scoop rehab.