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Author Topic: Pomeroy  (Read 4138 times)

MuMark

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Pomeroy
« on: December 07, 2019, 11:12:41 PM »
MU up to 24 after tonight's win and some positive performances from our schedule.

Mr. Sand-Knit

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2019, 11:13:23 PM »
Available without a subscription?
Political free board, plz leave your clever quips in your clever mind.

brewcity77

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2019, 11:14:09 PM »
We got as much from non-con as from the win itself. Ranking improved from 30 to 27 thanks to our non-con opponents going 9-1 on Friday & Saturday before tip-off, then jumped from 27 to 24 after the W.

MuMark

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2019, 11:15:51 PM »
We've played against the 14th toughest defensive SOS so far......our non conference SOS is 22.....it will get worse after the next 3.

THRILLHO

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2019, 08:47:41 AM »
Offense ranked 37 and defense 29, basically swapped from where they were at the start of the season (I don't recall exactly what it was but we ended last year at 32/45). The offense was so bad to start, I can see a trajectory for this team where the defense ranking stays about there and the offense improves slowly but surely. That could be a top 15 type team if it gets to where wojo teams have been historically.

brewcity77

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #5 on: December 08, 2019, 09:02:09 AM »
Lots of old data still in there. I think the defense is significantly better than is current ranking, but also think the offense is worse. On the upside, I think teams are more likely to improve on the offensive end as the season goes on.

Uncle Rico

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2019, 09:05:23 AM »
Lots of old data still in there. I think the defense is significantly better than is current ranking, but also think the offense is worse. On the upside, I think teams are more likely to improve on the offensive end as the season goes on.

Texas Tech entered Big XII play in the 130’s on offense last year.  Thought that would be their undoing.  It gradually got better as Conference play unfolded. 
Bring Brian Wardle Home

THRILLHO

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #7 on: December 08, 2019, 09:14:33 AM »
Lots of old data still in there. I think the defense is significantly better than is current ranking, but also think the offense is worse. On the upside, I think teams are more likely to improve on the offensive end as the season goes on.

I agree the offense might be overranked given our early games but it does look like it has turned a corner the last few games. Might even be top 20.

LloydsLegs

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2019, 09:22:42 AM »
Lots of old data still in there. I think the defense is significantly better than is current ranking, but also think the offense is worse. On the upside, I think teams are more likely to improve on the offensive end as the season goes on.

Would the old data be from the end of last year when the O was not so hot?  So maybe the Current O reality is not worse than its current ranking.

brewcity77

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #9 on: December 08, 2019, 09:28:14 AM »
I agree the offense might be overranked given our early games but it does look like it has turned a corner the last few games. Might even be top 20.

I would love for that to be the case, but against quality opponents this year we have scored 436 points in 437 possessions. USC was the only quality opponent where we were over 1.10 ppp (1.16, next best was Purdue at 1.03).

The limited evidence so far would indicate an offense in the 100-125 range is more likely than top-20.

Cheeks

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #10 on: December 08, 2019, 10:16:06 AM »
Still too early for Pomeroy in my opinion, but let's go with the predictions for the Big East.  Very tightly bunched.  Going to be a war.


Butler  11-7
Seton Hall  11-7
Villanova  11-7
Marquette 10-8
Xavier 10-8
Georgetown 8-10
Depaul 8-10
Creighton 8-10
Providence 7-11
St. John's 5-13
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

CountryRoads

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #11 on: December 08, 2019, 10:25:24 AM »
Still too early for Pomeroy in my opinion, but let's go with the predictions for the Big East.  Very tightly bunched.  Going to be a war.


Butler  11-7
Seton Hall  11-7
Villanova  11-7
Marquette 10-8
Xavier 10-8
Georgetown 8-10
Depaul 8-10
Creighton 8-10
Providence 7-11
St. John's 5-13

Last night was a big win. Assuming MU holds serve against the cupcakes, 10-8 should be safely in the field as it would be 20 wins.

THRILLHO

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #12 on: December 08, 2019, 10:58:52 AM »
I would love for that to be the case, but against quality opponents this year we have scored 436 points in 437 possessions. USC was the only quality opponent where we were over 1.10 ppp (1.16, next best was Purdue at 1.03).

The limited evidence so far would indicate an offense in the 100-125 range is more likely than top-20.

Kenpom also shows 1.03 against KSU, a pretty good defensive team. Although to make a point against me, I just noticed our PPP was only 1.03 against Jacksonville (would've guessed much higher).

Mr. Sand-Knit

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #13 on: December 08, 2019, 11:10:14 AM »
Simply cutting down on turnovers would send the offense skyrocketing.  Tough ask considering the cast of characters and increasingly difficult schecdule
Political free board, plz leave your clever quips in your clever mind.

MarquetteDano

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #14 on: December 08, 2019, 11:15:53 AM »
Simply cutting down on turnovers would send the offense skyrocketing.  Tough ask considering the cast of characters and increasingly difficult schecdule

Just think what our defensive rating would be without the live ball turnovers. Our half court D is really good.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #15 on: December 08, 2019, 12:17:48 PM »
Still too early for Pomeroy in my opinion, but let's go with the predictions for the Big East.  Very tightly bunched.  Going to be a war.


Butler  11-7
Seton Hall  11-7
Villanova  11-7
Marquette 10-8
Xavier 10-8
Georgetown 8-10
Depaul 8-10
Creighton 8-10
Providence 7-11
St. John's 5-13

Butler isn't winning the league
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

PJDunn

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #16 on: December 08, 2019, 12:24:40 PM »
They have as good a chance as anybody.  This is going to be an entertaining BE season.

We R Final Four

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #17 on: December 08, 2019, 12:33:37 PM »
I think Creighton with a few more wins, and Georgetown with a few less.
But, yes....it will be a dogfight.

Jay Bee

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #18 on: December 08, 2019, 12:59:38 PM »
Still too early for Pomeroy in my opinion, but let's go with the predictions for the Big East.  Very tightly bunched.  Going to be a war.

Too early for what? Is literally any ranking or opinion too early at this point for you... like 5 years to judge... January to judge ?  Or is there another source you’d value much more than kp as of today?

mu03eng

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #19 on: December 08, 2019, 01:06:36 PM »
Too early for what? Is literally any ranking or opinion too early at this point for you... like 5 years to judge... January to judge ?  Or is there another source you’d value much more than kp as of today?

Cheeks is right in that KenPom doesn't become its fully formed, useful data set until the 2nd week in January. Definitely usable but with a caveat
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

Cheeks

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #20 on: December 08, 2019, 01:34:10 PM »
Too early for what? Is literally any ranking or opinion too early at this point for you... like 5 years to judge... January to judge ?  Or is there another source you’d value much more than kp as of today?

I am going off Ken’s comments himself, the rankings / ratings are more accurate with more data and tend to settle in a bit later.  Not a matter of one being better than another, more that KP and others are still quite fluid at this point in the year.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Jay Bee

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #21 on: December 08, 2019, 04:20:46 PM »
I am going off Ken’s comments himself, the rankings / ratings are more accurate with more data and tend to settle in a bit later.  Not a matter of one being better than another, more that KP and others are still quite fluid at this point in the year.

No, you’re not. “Too early” and “are more accurate later” are completely different. Answer the Q or understand how silly your comment is

Jay Bee

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #22 on: December 08, 2019, 04:21:48 PM »
Cheeks is right in that KenPom doesn't become its fully formed, useful data set until the 2nd week in January. Definitely usable but with a caveat

So, you’re agreeing with me while saying you agree with Cheeks. Odd

Cheeks

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #23 on: December 08, 2019, 05:27:55 PM »
No, you’re not. “Too early” and “are more accurate later” are completely different. Answer the Q or understand how silly your comment is

How are they different?  Too early and THUS less accurate today then what they will be later in the season.

Maybe I am not understanding what you think is silly, but seems pretty clear to me.  Similar comments made by Palm, Sagarin, Massey over the years.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Jay Bee

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #24 on: December 08, 2019, 06:14:53 PM »
How are they different?  Too early and THUS less accurate today then what they will be later in the season.

Maybe I am not understanding what you think is silly, but seems pretty clear to me.  Similar comments made by Palm, Sagarin, Massey over the years.

Again, answer the question hey