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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks] About that Pomeroy ranking...  (Read 1352 times)

brewcity77

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[Cracked Sidewalks] About that Pomeroy ranking...
« on: October 20, 2019, 12:57:58 PM »
Pistol Brad at Anonymous Eagle did a nice job of breaking down how individual players will impact the Pomeroy and after reading it, I decided to piggy back on their efforts a bit and looked at how the roster changes, particularly the departure of the Hausers and the redistribution of minutes to Jayce Johnson, Koby McEwen, Greg Elliott, and other returning players project to make the 2019-20 team better in the metrics than the 2018-19 team was.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/10/about-that-pomeroy-ranking.html

Benny B

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] About that Pomeroy ranking...
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2019, 12:30:08 PM »
The OR% is quite interesting... IIRC, OR% doesn't take into account where the player was when the shot goes up; in other words, if you're a PG playing at the top of the key to hedge against the fast-break, of course your OR% number is going to be low.

Sam was always stretching the defense (i.e. he was typically near the perimeter), so that needs to be taken into consideration; although Joey's low OR% might be more attributable to apathy than position.

Bottom line here (as I see it): In theory, you can drastically improve OR% simply by not stretching the defense; however, to what extent is stretching the defense providing for increased OR% for those staying in the post?
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

tower912

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Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] About that Pomeroy ranking...
« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2019, 10:09:16 PM »
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaabk/big-east-season-preview-power-rankings-preseason-awards-and-the-year-of-the-gunner/ar-AAJ75GQ

I will just put this preseason preview here.
Looks pretty solid. Swap Seton Hall and Providence and he'd really be on to something.

Lennys Tap

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tower912

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] About that Pomeroy ranking...
« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2019, 06:20:34 AM »
Here is the thing that I feel like is getting missed.    This MU team will have 6 players who are good enough to have started at least at the D1 level.    Theo, Markus, Jayce, Koby, Sacar, and Ed.    This is going to be a solid team.     Of course there are going to be fluctuations.    Progress is not linear.     But there is size, experience, toughness, shooting, athleticism.    It is going to be OK. 
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

mileskishnish72

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] About that Pomeroy ranking...
« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2019, 04:35:36 PM »
Nice article, Brew. I'm with you, Tower.

Benny B

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] About that Pomeroy ranking...
« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2019, 04:44:55 PM »
Here is the thing that I feel like is getting missed.    This MU team will have 6 players who are good enough to have started at least at the D1 level.    Theo, Markus, Jayce, Koby, Sacar, and Ed.    This is going to be a solid team.     Of course there are going to be fluctuations.    Progress is not linear.     But there is size, experience, toughness, shooting, athleticism.    It is going to be OK.

Amen... but I will add one thing.  As critical as experience and year-to-year growth is in D-I hoops, there is a common thread in just about every NCAA champion that I can recall: consistent and meaningful contributions from a freshman.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] About that Pomeroy ranking...
« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2019, 06:08:09 PM »
Jordan Sperber of Hoop Vision recently had an article about experience and how it's generally overrated, especially on defense. You will see incremental defensive improvements (Markus, for instance) but in his observations, experience doesn't help that much.

I think of Marquette. Sacar has always been a good defender. Theo has always played a solid defensive role. Conversely, Rowsey was always a bad defender. What changed our defense wasn't experience, it was more minutes for solid defenders like Anim & John and the arrival of long, strong athletes like Bailey & Ed while also getting rid of the defensive dead weight in Rowsey.

That's why I'm so bullish for next year's defense. Add guys like Jayce, Koby, and Greg & we will be quicker and stronger. Get rid of Joey and we'll have better man defenders out there. We saw the system work last year, and the pieces will fit even better this season.

Marcus92

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] About that Pomeroy ranking...
« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2019, 11:03:04 PM »
An interesting point. Marquette lost its best scorer and worst defender in Rowsey. While Chartouny played limited minutes, he was definitely an upgrade on D. Theo saw a lot more court time, increasing from 11.8 mpg as a freshman to 19.7 mpg. MU also gained a stout defender in Ed Morrow (second on the team in DR% and Blk%).

The resulting improvement on the defensive end was dramatic -- from 182nd in defensive efficiency in 2017-18 to 45th last season.

Coming into this year, Marquette lost arguably its worst defender in Joey and a solid defender and rebounder in Sam. Jayce is a clear upgrade to Joey defensively. What Brendan might give up to Sam in rebounding he makes up for in length, quickness and versatility. Ed looks to be back at full health. And the additions of Koby, Symir and Dexter give MU even more athleticism and depth on the perimeter.

The 2011-12 season was the last time MU was ranked in the Top 25 for defensive efficiency. This year's team has the potential to be just as good, if not better.
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