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Author Topic: had not realized McDermott clearly top offensive player of season  (Read 2569 times)

Marquetteauburn

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http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/06/mcdermott-top-offensive-player-of.html

I know these are long offseason reads most will not be interested in, but offseason is a nice time to pick up on things I've missed so here is another cracked sidewalks just posted on the link above and pasted below.

McDermott Top Offensive Player of Century; Adding Creighton & Other Greats to Game

In the basketball board game I picked the 42 teams (7 teams for 6 conferences) who made the Final 4 or finished in the top 5 of www.kenpom.com. However, when I decided to round out each conference with an 8th team based on the greatest team on a school not represented, I missed one thing that should have jumped out at me years ago in www.valueaddbasketball.

Doug McDermott is by far the best offensive college basketball player of the century.

While there are many great one and dones, I realized only two players were ever one of the best five offensive players in the country more than once (see list of the top 5 offensive players every year - including Travis Diener, Steve Novak and Jimmy Butler).

In 2005, Duke's JJ Redick was the third best offensive player in basketball, and in 2006 he improved to be the best offensive basketball. Truly amazing, and yet ...

In 2012 and 2013 in the Missouri Valley Conference McDermott was the third best offensive player in the country (keep in mind Value Add adjusts for competition, so this means it is estimated he would have ranked as the third best offensive player whether he played in the ACC, old Big East, Big Ten etc.

Only four players ranked in the top 5 overall players (Offense, defense and position adjustment); Boston College's Troy Bell in 2002 and 2003, Duke's Shelden Williams in 2004 and 2005, Davidson's Stephen Curry in 2007 and 2008 and Utah's Delon Wright in 2013 and 2014. You may assume Steph would have made the offensive list but not the overall - but actually he played in a stretch of years where the guards were so roughed up that their actual numbers were much lower than front line players - and it is actually the position adjustment that made it clear he was a top five player both years.

Adding the Teams of these Great Players to the Game

As for the game, I am adding McDermott's Creighton team to the Big East, Curry's Davidson team to the "SEC," and Wright's Utah team to the Pac-12. I did toy with adding Kawhi Leonard's San Diego State team instead of Utah since Kawhi is the greater NBA player in the headlines and both teams wee equal as No. 8 at www.kenpom.com and both losing to the eventual national champ in the Sweet 16 (UConn and Duke). However, at the college level Kawhi's best year was 11th ranked, and Wright was the only player to finish in the top two twice - so I went with him and did not he had triple doubles a few times after taking over the starting position for the Grizzlies this year.

To fill out the other conferences with a great player, I went with Reggie Evan's Iowa team from the beginning of the Century as the 8th team in the Big East, Chris Paul's Wake Forest team for the ACC and Michael Beasley's K-State team for the Big 12.

McDermott's Legacy

For the debut of the realigned Big East in 2014, McDermott was even better as the best offensive player in the country. More importantly for the Big East, he was selected as the National Player of the Year by all six major selection groups.

Marquette and the rest of the Big East owe the McDermott's a lot for that 2014 debut season - when people still weren't sure about the Big East after alignment. Obviously everyone owes Villanova for the two national titles, but having the greatest offensive player of the Century for a debut season went a long way.


Top 5 Offensive Players Each Season 2002 to 2019

Off rank   Player   Team   Overall Rank   Year
1   Henry Domercant   Eastern Illinois   9   2002
2   Reece Gaines   Louisville   2   2002
3   Steve Logan   Cincinnati   1   2002
4   Rasual Butler   La Salle   5   2002
5   Chris Davis   North Texas   47   2002
1   Adam Hess   William & Mary   9   2003
2   Chris Williams   Ball St.   11   2003
3   Troy Bell   Boston College   3   2003
4   Mike Sweetney   Georgetown   1   2003
5   Brett Blizzard   North Carolina Wilmington   8   2003
1   Devin Harris   Wisconsin   1   2004
2   Travis Diener   Marquette   7   2004
3   Luke Jackson   Oregon   2   2004
4   Chris Paul   Wake Forest   3   2004
5   Ryan Gomes   Providence   4   2004
1   Taylor Coppenrath   Vermont   8   2005
2   Andrew Bogut   Utah   1   2005
3   JJ Redick   Duke   6   2005
4   John Lucas   Oklahoma St.   32   2005
5   Spencer Nelson   Utah St.   2   2005
1   JJ Redick   Duke   2   2006
2   Adam Morrison   Gonzaga   6   2006
3   Brandon Roy   Washington   4   2006
4   Quincy Douby   Rutgers   5   2006
5   Steve Novak   Marquette   17   2006
1   Kevin Durant   Texas   1   2007
2   Jared Dudley   Boston College   3   2007
3   Drew Neitzel   Michigan St.   6   2007
4   Jaycee Carroll   Utah St.   28   2007
5   Adam Haluska   Iowa   8   2007
1   Tyler Hansbrough   North Carolina   3   2008
2   Michael Beasley   Kansas St.   1   2008
3   Maarty Leunen   Oregon   6   2008
4   Kevin Love   UCLA   2   2008
5   Ryan Anderson   California   8   2008
1   Ty Lawson   North Carolina   1   2009
2   Aaron Jackson   Duquesne   37   2009
3   Jerome Randle   California   16   2009
4   Blake Griffin   Oklahoma   2   2009
5   DeJuan Blair   Pittsburgh   3   2009
1   Jon Scheyer   Duke   1   2010
2   James Anderson   Oklahoma St.   10   2010
3   Jimmy Butler   Marquette   5   2010
4   Kyle Singler   Duke   2   2010
5   Quincy Pondexter   Washington   6   2010
1   Jordan Taylor   Wisconsin   1   2011
2   Kemba Walker   Connecticut   2   2011
3   Charles Jenkins   Hofstra   11   2011
4   Reggie Jackson   Boston College   16   2011
5   Noah Dahlman   Wofford   19   2011
1   Kevin Jones   West Virginia   4   2012
2   Anthony Davis   Kentucky   1   2012
3   Doug McDermott   Creighton   17   2012
4   John Jenkins   Vanderbilt   13   2012
5   Damian Lillard   Weber St.   19   2012
1   Trey Burke   Michigan   1   2013
2   Erick Green   Virginia Tech   4   2013
3   Doug McDermott   Creighton   14   2013
4   Kyle Barone   Idaho   73   2013
5   Nate Wolters   South Dakota St.   10   2013
1   Doug McDermott   Creighton   7   2014
2   Billy Baron   Canisius   6   2014
3   Bryce Cotton   Providence   49   2014
4   Nik Stauskas   Michigan   44   2014
5   Joseph Young   Oregon   24   2014
1   Frank Kaminsky   Wisconsin   3   2015
2   Jerian Grant   Notre Dame   5   2015
3   Delon Wright   Utah   1   2015
4   Aaron White   Iowa   6   2015
5   Kevin Yogi   Indiana   70   2015
1   Quinton Hooker   North Dakota   5   2016
3   Buddy Hield   Oklahoma   2   2016
4   Anthony Barber   North Carolina St.   20   2016
5   Kay Felder   Oakland   15   2016
1   Mike Daum   South Dakota St.   29   2017
2   Dallas Moore   North Florida   71   2017
3   Frank Mason   Kansas   2   2017
4   Luke Kennard   Duke   7   2017
5   Monte Morris   Iowa St.   4   2017
1   Nick Masterson   Kennesaw St.   191   2018
2   Trae Young   Oklahoma   6   2018
3   Jeff Roberson   Vanderbilt   16   2018
4   Yante Maten   Georgia   3   2018
5   Jordan Howard   Central Arkansas   109   2018
1   Zion Williamson   Duke   1   2019
2   Cassius Winston   Michigan St.   4   2019
3   CJ Massinburg   Buffalo   6   2019
4   Ja Morant   Murray St.   8   2019
5   Sam Merrill   Utah St.   18   2019



Dr. Blackheart

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Re: had not realized McDermott clearly top offensive player of season
« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2019, 08:00:59 AM »
And yet generally, this hasn't translated to uber success on the next level. A few stars on the list, a few solid role players, a lot of wash outs.

I think this is where raw athleticism and potential come into play. Art and science.

Marcus92

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Re: had not realized McDermott clearly top offensive player of season
« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2019, 02:30:52 PM »
Nobody would confuse players like Tyler Hansbrough or Luke Harongody with Zion Williamson. But both were dominant offensive players at the college level.
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Marquetteauburn

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Re: had not realized McDermott clearly top offensive player of season
« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2019, 11:52:18 PM »
Nobody would confuse players like Tyler Hansbrough or Luke Harongody with Zion Williamson. But both were dominant offensive players at the college level.

Yes, agree with you both! When the NBA teams had me put together some forecast, I told them you take Value Add, adjust it for year played/age (e.g. freshman are terrible so if someone is a top player as a freshman and goes NBA and is within even a few points of a junior or senior then his projected "Senior Value Add" is much higher. NBA is drafting for how good they will all be eventually, not whether an 18 year old is better than a 21 year old now in college - but how good will each be when 22 and on.

Also, for NBA ability, to the Senior Value Add you add steal%, defensive rebounding % and FEWER shots taken to get a better number of NBA rating.

However, you are never going to be nearly as accurate as my friend Aran Smith - inventor and owner of nbadraft.net - you need to visually evaluate a players handle and shot, and many other factors to be NBA draft potential.

 

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