Tough Questions Need To Be Asked

[muguru]

Scary Guru.  I also thought of a very similar theory. 

Markus realizes the rift with the Hausers is beyond repair.  Markus tells the team he's going pro, thinking at least the Hausers stay and the team will still be strong next year, as Markus moves onto his next chapter in life. 

But when Markus learns the Hausers are going to leave anyway, he changes his mind and returns.  "Dear Marquette, I'm back."  Isn't that unusually short?  It definitely stood out to me in a "Well that's different" sort of way.

But like I said, it's just a theory.

You expounded on it more than I..but that's EXACTLY what i was thinking..he thinks..okay if Sam and Joey want to come back..i will go pro because they will still be very good..but if they are in fact leaving , then I will comeback so this whole thing doesn't blow up and they lose all three of us. IF our theory is right..that's quite the selfless act if you ask me..in other words he did it for the good of the program, rather than himself.

[Henry Sugar]

Sir, this is an Arby's.

I need to start using this more.

[Henry Sugar]

This story leaves out the ultimatum Dad and sons gave Wojo that led to the one sided conversation.

If any of THAT is true, Wojo absolutely handled it the correct way and should be commended.

"I'm going to say something vague and unverified, and then use that as confirmation bias".

[connie]

You expounded on it more than I..but that's EXACTLY what i was thinking..he thinks..okay if Sam and Joey want to come back..i will go pro because they will still be very good..but if they are in fact leaving , then I will comeback so this whole thing doesn't blow up and they lose all three of us. IF our theory is right..that's quite the selfless act if you ask me..in other words he did it for the good of the program, rather than himself.

So Markus is going pro not because he thinks it in his best interest, but leaves for college team unity.  Then when he finds out that his leaving for the NBA won't matter he decides that he is going to stay in college and put off his life long dream.     I truly understand nothing.

[TheTulsaWarrior]

In the absence of facts, there's a lot of blind speculation, innuendo and with it "fan" imposed additional damage to the program. What's best right now for the school and the team is to let things play out. Judging from the postings I've seen I doubt a percentage of Marquette followers will allow that to happen without a continuing chorus of negativity. The consequences of starting from ground zone don't make sense. As a diehard supporter, I'm willing to withhold judgment until more facts are available and see how things work on the court. No necktie party talk for me. As the coming season plays out we’ll see how the coaching staff and players deal with this adversity.

[Henry Sugar]

Also, Purdue played all year and made an Elite 8 with a more shot dominant Guard than Markus was and one who also had a lower assist rate than did Markus..yet, you never once had any problems from Purdue coming out of the woodwork. Point being, Matt Painter made it work for Purdue, why the hell could Wojo not make it work for MU?? That's the question..

I'd like to address the Purdue statement as well. A high usage offense is a "risky" approach to basketball. It's similar to other "risky" approaches such as three dominant offenses or reduced pace offenses. The key to the "risk" is that these approaches have more variance than traditional offenses. In other words, the highs are higher and the lows are lower. A high usage offense is similar to over-weighting a stock portfolio with one particular stock. When it's working, boy is it great. But when it doesn't... you finish the season 1-6 while choking away a Big East Championship.

There's nothing inherently wrong with a risky approach to game planning. However, good teams shouldn't take risky approaches. High variance results are bad when you are better than pretty much every team. If you have a team that is good, then you really want to minimize the variance of results.

This is why Dick Bennett's teams were always great for upsets when he was at UW-GB. Slow down the number of possessions in a game, and upsets are a plenty. This is why I wasn't surprised that Virginia, of all teams, was the first one to get upset by a 16 seed. Less possessions mean that lucky shots by opponents matter more.

Can a team be successful with a high usage player? Yes. Kemba Walker/UConn and Russ Smith/Louisville both won national championships. However, if you look at the list of top 20 high usage players, most of them are on teams that aren't very good. That's because bad teams need to use high risk strategies.

High usage worked for Purdue this year. It worked for Marquette too, until it DIDN'T WORK AT ALL. Risky.

[RJax55]

I'd like to address the Purdue statement as well. A high usage offense is a "risky" approach to basketball. It's similar to other "risky" approaches such as three dominant offenses or reduced pace offenses. The key to the "risk" is that these approaches have more variance than traditional offenses. In other words, the highs are higher and the lows are lower. A high usage offense is similar to over-weighting a stock portfolio with one particular stock. When it's working, boy is it great. But when it doesn't... you finish the season 1-6 while choking away a Big East Championship.

There's nothing inherently wrong with a risky approach to game planning. However, good teams shouldn't take risky approaches. High variance results are bad when you are better than pretty much every team. If you have a team that is good, then you really want to minimize the variance of results.

This is why Dick Bennett's teams were always great for upsets when he was at UW-GB. Slow down the number of possessions in a game, and upsets are a plenty. This is why I wasn't surprised that Virginia, of all teams, was the first one to get upset by a 16 seed. Less possessions mean that lucky shots by opponents matter more.

Can a team be successful with a high usage player? Yes. Kemba Walker/UConn and Russ Smith/Louisville both won national championships. However, if you look at the list of top 20 high usage players, most of them are on teams that aren't very good. That's because bad teams need to use high risk strategies.

High usage worked for Purdue this year. It worked for Marquette too, until it DIDN'T WORK AT ALL. Risky.

Interesting post. Nice to have you back posting Sugar.

[connie]

Interesting post. Nice to have you back posting Sugar.

+1

[Jon]

This is actually inaccurate. As of 48 (or 72) hours ago we THOUGHT we had 5 starters returning but that was never the case. We either had 4 (if Markus left) or 3 (if Markus stayed).

Lenny

You are correct. The Hausers were gone in March.

[Let's Go Warriors]

For the people wondering about minutes.
Markus badly needed to lose minutes.  Just from a health standpoint.  With the added guard depth next year.  He needed to lose about 5mpg.  Anim would have lost a lot of minutes as well, maybe 7.  Sam also could have been rolled back about 2-3 minutes per game.  All of these minutes were not coming from Joey.  Sure he would lose 3-5 per game as well.  Thats about it.  With the guys in the front court and Heldt being gone, who do you think plays the 5 if Both Theo and Ed are in foul trouble again.... Joey...
Well he would have anyway.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

In the absence of facts, there's a lot of blind speculation, innuendo and with it "fan" imposed additional damage to the program. What's best right now for the school and the team is to let things play out. Judging from the postings I've seen I doubt a percentage of Marquette followers will allow that to happen without a continuing chorus of negativity. The consequences of starting from ground zone don't make sense. As a diehard supporter, I'm willing to withhold judgment until more facts are available and see how things work on the court. No necktie party talk for me. As the coming season plays out we’ll see how the coaching staff and players deal with this adversity.

I stopped reading this after you put fan in quotes as if your somehow morally superior. GTFO with that sh*t.

[TheREALwrk]

You expounded on it more than I..but that's EXACTLY what i was thinking..he thinks..okay if Sam and Joey want to come back..i will go pro because they will still be very good..but if they are in fact leaving , then I will comeback so this whole thing doesn't blow up and they lose all three of us. IF our theory is right..that's quite the selfless act if you ask me..in other words he did it for the good of the program, rather than himself.

This is up there for the most incredible mental gymnastics I've ever seen on this website. You are the Aly Raisman of Scoop!

[StillAWarrior]

For the people wondering about minutes.
Markus badly needed to lose minutes.  Just from a health standpoint.  With the added guard depth next year.  He needed to lose about 5mpg.  Anim would have lost a lot of minutes as well, maybe 7.  Sam also could have been rolled back about 2-3 minutes per game.  All of these minutes were not coming from Joey.  Sure he would lose 3-5 per game as well.  Thats about it.  With the guys in the front court and Heldt being gone, who do you think plays the 5 if Both Theo and Ed are in foul trouble again.... Joey...
Well he would have anyway.

This is true and admittedly not factored into my previous posts on this point.

[StillAWarrior]

You expounded on it more than I..but that's EXACTLY what i was thinking..he thinks..okay if Sam and Joey want to come back..i will go pro because they will still be very good..but if they are in fact leaving , then I will comeback so this whole thing doesn't blow up and they lose all three of us. IF our theory is right..that's quite the selfless act if you ask me..in other words he did it for the good of the program, rather than himself.

That sounds really nice.  I say this in all sincerity:  as Markus makes his way through life and makes major life decisions, I hope he focuses on doing what is right for Markus.  While I personally believe that Markus made a good decision (and as a fan, I am happy), I really hope he didn't make this decision by moving from "the team will be fine without me" to "the team needs me."  I hope he made this decision (and makes other major life decisions) by figuring out what is right for him.  By all accounts he's a great kid and he deserves that.

[Henry Sugar]

Interesting post. Nice to have you back posting Sugar.

Aw shucks. Thanks.

Just to elaborate on this further, the high usage approach by Marquette allowed MU to get to a top 10 ranking. And then the bottom fell out, because it's highly variable. (When does a high usage approach make sense? when you are an underdog)

Good teams rarely go high usage, and yet Wojo took this approach in 2019. Furthermore, he doubled down on it even after Howard got injured. Wojo was inflexible with his strategy despite evidence it was no longer working. I am not on the side of Wojo here, because the high usage strategy was poor coaching. I completely understand the frustration of the Hausers.

Furthermore, this is the second season in a row where there's been systemic inflexibility by Wojo. Just last year, he continued to roll out both Rowsey and Howard together the majority of the time. Marquette had the #182 defense last year. This is despite the fact that there was plenty of evidence to show that a lineup of either of them playing individually was a stronger team than the two of them together.

In the last two seasons, Wojo has been inflexible with his strategy to the detriment of Marquette, and we have data to support that position.

[Henry Sugar]

So a few years back, I did a bunch of analysis on the factors that most correlate with successful players in the NBA. Pudner and I even talked with a few teams. Note that this is "success in the NBA" and not "get drafted". There are four areas that align with success.

ORtg (or Value Add), Defensive Rebounding, Steal Rate, and Usage.

Here's the thing. Usage was negatively correlated with success in the NBA. In other words, players that had a high usage rate were more likely to be unsuccessful.

Not only is the high usage approach bad for Marquette, it's bad for Howard's future as well.