[Cracked Sidewalks] Analyzing Murray State's Elite eFG%

[brewcity77]

The most important of the Four Factors in predicting outcomes is effective field goal percent, or eFG%. That statistic combines a player's two & three point field goal shooting into one number. The calculation is: (FGM + (0.5 x 3PFGM))/FGA. What this does is effectively adds the additional 50% of points scored for a three to a two. To show how it works, here is Markus Howard's current eFG% calculation:

Field Goals Made: 243
Three Point Field Goals Made: 116
Field Goal Attempts: 573

So the calculation is (243 + (0.5 x 116)) / 573 = 52.5 eFG%

The reason I bring this up is because two numbers on Murray State's team page on kenpom really stand out. Those numbers were 55.2 Offensive eFG% & 46.4 Defensive eFG%, both top-25 nationally. While the other three factors can influence outcomes (turnovers have significantly impacted Marquette's results) there is no single factor more important in predicting a winner than eFG%, which immediately gave me concerns about Murray State's chances of pulling off an upset.

Continued: http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/03/analyzing-murray-states-elite-efg.html

[Jockey]

Thanks, Brew. Excellent article.

I will say, though, that I don't know how these numbers translate when comparing a high-major with tough competition to a mid-major who played a lot of bunnies.

That's why I'm not totally on-board with basketball advanced analytics as opposed to baseball when a player's performance can be isolated from team factors, ballpark factors. other player's effects, etc.

Still, this is good stuff.

[brewcity77]

Thanks, Brew. Excellent article.

I will say, though, that I don't know how these numbers translate when comparing a high-major with tough competition to a mid-major who played a lot of bunnies.

Thanks. It is tough, and that's why I tried to isolate teams based strictly on the Racers strengths. Is Alabama's 120th ranked 2PFG% defense against mostly SEC teams better than Southern Illinois' 68th ranked 2PFG% against mostly MVC teams, I don't know.

But I do know Murray State shot below 53% from 2 against both of those teams and that there was a fairly strong correlation between the statistical ranges I used.

Certainly anything can happen in a one-off tournament, but I do feel more confident after digging deeper into the numbers.

[mu_hilltopper]

Soooooo .. we're going to win?

[jsglow]

Soooooo .. we're going to win?

Auntie says no.  But she hates Arby's so what the h*ll does she know?

[Bocephys]

Auntie says no.  But she hates Arby's so what the h*ll does she know?

I only trust Jens that stick to one "n". I've never met a two nn-ed Jen that could properly predict a college basketball game. Their expertise is hockey.

[JakeBarnes]

Line is at -3.5 now.

[oldwarrior81]

against the lower ranked teams on MU's schedule: 
(Carroll, UMBC, Bethune-Cookman, Presbyterian, Charleston Southern, UTEP, North Dakota, Southern)

MU opponents shot:
113/318 on twos (35.5%)
42/166 on threes (25.3%)
155/484 overall  (32.0%)

eFG% of 36.3%

Realistically, how much stronger was the majority of Murray State's schedule?
Belmont is good.  Jacksonville State (15-3 in the Ohio Valley) is ranked 10 spots below DePaul on kenpom.  Jacksonville St knocked off Murray by 20.

Take care of business and this should be a very winnable game.