Odds of playing UW@Madison

[Warrior of Law]

The thought of playing UWMadison in the tourney in a 4/5 game seems very possible.  Unfortunately, I think their game plan of playing in the 40s and 50s would not be positive for MU. A season-ending L to them would be brutal. Of course, a 20 point blowout would be awfully nice. I’d rather avoid the scenario, so what needs to happen?

[BrewCity83]

We need to get a 4-seed and they need to get a 5-seed, then we both need to be placed in the same region and both win our first round games.

[tower912]

As discussed elsewhere, the committee generally tries to avoid rematches. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I'd love to play them again. 

[MU82]

On my list of worries, this ranks somewhere below locusts swarming the neighborhood and carrying away my dog.

[Spotcheck Billy]

WI would be the typical 5 seed losing to a 12 seed.

[NickelDimer]

I'd love to play them again.

1000%. Give me a rematch any day. I pray we face teams like that in the tourney

[GooooMarquette]

I'd love to play them again.

Yep.

Bring 'em on.

[TallTitan34]

WI would be the typical 5 seed losing to a 12 seed.

I don’t know, it seems like UW always gets favorable matchups for the tourney be it where they were placed or higher seeds in their path falling to lesser teams.

[BM1090]

I don’t know, it seems like UW always gets favorable matchups for the tourney be it where they were placed or higher seeds in their path falling to lesser teams.

I think we're biased.

Sure that's been the case at times. But in 2017 UW was underseeded as an 8 and beat Nova in round 2. Lost to a good Florida team in the S16.

2016 - Played underseeded (based on Kenpom) Pittsburgh then a good Xavier team. Lost to 6 seed ND in S16. Got a bit of a break when WVU lost to SFA in round 1.

2015 - Made National Title game and played excellent teams throughout.

2014 - Made final four. Beat #2 overall Kenpom in E8. Got "favorable" draw in F4 against UK but lost.

2013 - lost to Ole Miss round 1

2012 - Lost to 1 seed Syracuse in the S16.

I don't see much in the way of being lucky besides some normal variance. Seems pretty standard to me.

[TallTitan34]

I think we're biased.

Sure that's been the case at times. But in 2017 UW was underseeded as an 8 and beat Nova in round 2. Lost to a good Florida team in the S16.

2016 - Played underseeded (based on Kenpom) Pittsburgh then a good Xavier team. Lost to 6 seed ND in S16. Got a bit of a break when WVU lost to SFA in round 1.

2015 - Made National Title game and played excellent teams throughout.

2014 - Made final four. Beat #2 overall Kenpom in E8. Got "favorable" draw in F4 against UK but lost.

2013 - lost to Ole Miss round 1

2012 - Lost to 1 seed Syracuse in the S16.

I don't see much in the way of being lucky besides some normal variance. Seems pretty standard to me.

I guess I was wrong on that one. Thought they had easier paths than that.

[Newsdreams]

Crapshoot, hey?

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I think we're biased.

Sure that's been the case at times. But in 2017 UW was underseeded as an 8 and beat Nova in round 2. Lost to a good Florida team in the S16.

2016 - Played underseeded (based on Kenpom) Pittsburgh then a good Xavier team. Lost to 6 seed ND in S16. Got a bit of a break when WVU lost to SFA in round 1.

2015 - Made National Title game and played excellent teams throughout.

2014 - Made final four. Beat #2 overall Kenpom in E8. Got "favorable" draw in F4 against UK but lost.

2013 - lost to Ole Miss round 1

2012 - Lost to 1 seed Syracuse in the S16.

I don't see much in the way of being lucky besides some normal variance. Seems pretty standard to me.

Wisconsin has also lost in Sweet 16 against 8 seed Butler and 10 seed Davidson.  So being "lucky" didn't work out for them twice.

Now, they did have an easy path to the Elite 8 in 2008, IIRC.  UW was a 6 seed and played seeds 11, 14, 10 before #1 UNC ended the Badgers season.

[Herman Cain]

It would be great to play the Badgers in the tournament. It would be an incredibly fun game day atmosphere. I am pretty confident we would beat them again. We won the first time around when Markus had a terrible game. It he is any where near his normal effectiveness we will win easily.

[HowardsWorld]

I think as a fan board a lot of people say things that they know wont happen. Its very unlikely that we would be in the same region let alone the same 4/5.  Having people say they pray to have this match up and if it were to happen I think this board would crap their pants. I personally don't want to play them because of the style of play and anyone who things thats an easy win is just fooling themselves.

Anyways pretty much a moot  point as I see MU getting a 3 seed and the Badgers a 4 seed.

[Mike Deane's Seat Belt]

odds of playing UW about the same as us winning  a national championship this year....

[Warrior1969]

We could also play Buzzy??

[MU82]

I say we put Marotta in just to grab Dickless McDouchey's nutsack!

[Benny B]

I would give a 0.05% chance of an MU/UW 4-5 match-up happening.

Historically, when the committee has bracketed a potential "second-round rematches," at least one team advanced to the second round as an upset... look at MU's recent (actual and potential) rematches that violated the committee guidelines:

2011 - MU was bracketed with Syracuse in a 2nd round rematch... MU advanced as an 11-seed
2012 - MU was bracketed with Norfolk State in a potential Sweet 16 match-up between teams that had already met twice in the regular season... Norfolk State was the 15 seed.

So if the committee is going to violate the rematch guidelines, they're probably only going to let it happen by virtue of at least one upset.

In other words, the committee might bracket a 2nd round rematch between a 4- and 12-seed (or a 13- and 5-seed), but they wouldn't bracket a re-match between the 4- and 5-seed.

[4everwarriors]

Knot sure ya kan sey "nutsack" hear. Could bee offensive ta all Dicks, aina?

[Its DJOver]

I would give a 0.05% chance of an MU/UW 4-5 match-up happening.

Historically, when the committee has bracketed a potential "second-round rematches," at least one team advanced to the second round as an upset... look at MU's recent (actual and potential) rematches that violated the committee guidelines:

2011 - MU was bracketed with Syracuse in a 2nd round rematch... MU advanced as an 11-seed
2012 - MU was bracketed with Norfolk State in a potential Sweet 16 match-up between teams that had already met twice in the regular season... Norfolk State was the 15 seed.

So if the committee is going to violate the rematch guidelines, they're probably only going to let it happen by virtue of at least one upset.

In other words, the committee might bracket a 2nd round rematch between a 4- and 12-seed (or a 13- and 5-seed), but they wouldn't bracket a re-match between the 4- and 5-seed.

2013 rematch with Butler in the 6-3 R32 game.  No upsets there.  They'll try to avoid it yes, but I think you might be reading the tea leaves a little bit too much.

[Pops Sims]

Always wanted to see a UW/MU tournament game. As others have stated, committee probably makes sure that doesn't happen but it would be a "must see" game if it did.

[We R Final Four]

odds of playing UW about the same as us winning  a national championship this year....

...or same odds of us dropping completely out of the top 25 after the Creighton loss, hey?

[Benny B]

2013 rematch with Butler in the 6-3 R32 game.  No upsets there.  They'll try to avoid it yes, but I think you might be reading the tea leaves a little bit too much.

My bad... that regular season game vs. Butler is still blocked from my memory, apparently.

I also overlooked that MU-NFSU in the Sweet 16 isn't a violation, since the rematch rules only apply in the first round for non-conference opponents... so I'm going to recant and say that MU vs. UW is definitely a possibility as a 4-5 match-up considering the recent emphasis on not moving teams out of their natural regions an inordinate amount of times... it's been over a decade since UW was in the Midwest Regional (and 2003 since MU was), so the stars could align.

[Its DJOver]

My bad... that regular season game vs. Butler is still blocked from my memory, apparently.

I also overlooked that MU-NFSU in the Sweet 16 isn't a violation, since the rematch rules only apply in the first round for non-conference opponents... so I'm going to recant and say that MU vs. UW is definitely a possibility as a 4-5 match-up considering the recent emphasis on not moving teams out of their natural regions an inordinate amount of times... it's been over a decade since UW was in the Midwest Regional (and 2003 since MU was), so the stars could align.

Could happen sure, but I still think that the committee will do whatever it can to avoid some match-ups regardless.  For all the tourney appearances and success that their respective programs have had, there has never been a Duke UNC match-up.  I don't think that's entirely coincidental either.