Author Topic: BET or Regular Season Championship? (Read 6921 times)

1SE · « **on:** February 18, 2019, 03:22:29 AM »

Not that Nova's loss last night really changes anything as we probably still need to beat them to win the regular season title but, if you had to chose, what would you value more - a regular season crown or winning the BET?

For me it's all about what better predicts NCAA success. Going back to 05-06 (because who cares about the BE pre-Marquette) there have been 8 years in which the regular season champ and BET champ were different.

06 BET Syracuse (5 seed, lost 1st round), RSC Nova (1 seed, lost in EE), UConn (1 seed, lost in EE)

08 BET Pitt (4 seed, lost 2nd round), RSC Gtown (2 seed, lost 2nd round)

10 BET WV (2 seed, lost FF), RSC Cuse (1 seed, lost SS)

11 BET UConn (3 seed, National Champs), RSC Pitt (1 seed, lost 2nd round)

12 BET Louisville (4 seed, lost FF), RSC Cuse (1 seed, lost EE)

14 BET Prov (11 seed, lost 1st round), RSC Nova (2 seed, lost 2nd round)

16 BET Hall (6 seed, lost 1st round), RSC Nova (2 seed, national champs).

2010-2012 BET champs had good runs. RSCs that didn't win BET all under-performed to seed expect 2016 Nova. Gotta say slight edge to BET - better to come in hot!

BallBoy · « **Reply #1 on:** February 18, 2019, 07:15:46 AM »

Quote from: 1SE on February 18, 2019, 03:22:29 AM

Not that Nova's loss last night really changes anything as we probably still need to beat them to win the regular season title but, if you had to chose, what would you value more - a regular season crown or winning the BET?

For me it's all about what better predicts NCAA success. Going back to 05-06 (because who cares about the BE pre-Marquette) there have been 8 years in which the regular season champ and BET champ were different.

06 BET Syracuse (5 seed, lost 1st round), RSC Nova (1 seed, lost in EE), UConn (1 seed, lost in EE)

08 BET Pitt (4 seed, lost 2nd round), RSC Gtown (2 seed, lost 2nd round)

10 BET WV (2 seed, lost FF), RSC Cuse (1 seed, lost SS)

11 BET UConn (3 seed, National Champs), RSC Pitt (1 seed, lost 2nd round)

12 BET Louisville (4 seed, lost FF), RSC Cuse (1 seed, lost EE)

14 BET Prov (11 seed, lost 1st round), RSC Nova (2 seed, lost 2nd round)

16 BET Hall (6 seed, lost 1st round), RSC Nova (2 seed, national champs).

2010-2012 BET champs had good runs. RSCs that didn't win BET all under-performed to seed expect 2016 Nova. Gotta say slight edge to BET - better to come in hot!

You forgot 2013 when MU, Georgetown and Louisville were co-champions. MU went on to the elite eight after one of the great NCAA tournament comebacks in the first round.

HowardsWorld · « **Reply #2 on:** February 18, 2019, 07:17:26 AM »

I think Marquette can win both. I really don't see anyone outside of Marquette or Nova winning the tournament. I know many are high on St. Johns but if I had to be honest I would say that win yesterday for them was more lucky than it was skill. Nova got complacent when they got up by 19. When St. Johns got it close Booth looked like he never shot a basketball before. Not that I think St. Johns isn't a good team but Nova hadn't lost a game up 19 in 5 years, yesterday was just the perfect storm.

HowardsWorld · « **Reply #3 on:** February 18, 2019, 07:20:22 AM »

Also, a regular season title shows a complete body of work. A 3-4 day tournament without any rest and something that the committee has shown doesn't impact seeding as much as everyone thinks has to come second.

1SE · « **Reply #4 on:** February 18, 2019, 07:21:22 AM »

Quote from: HowardsWorld on February 18, 2019, 07:17:26 AM

I think Marquette can win both. I really don't see anyone outside of Marquette or Nova winning the tournament. I know many are high on St. Johns but if I had to be honest I would say that win yesterday for them was more lucky than it was skill. Nova got complacent when they got up by 19. When St. Johns got it close Booth looked like he never shot a basketball before. Not that I think St. Johns isn't a good team but Nova hadn't lost a game up 19 in 5 years, yesterday was just the perfect storm.

Yak yak yak.

For sure winning both and the NCAA tourney is best. But the point is which of the two would you rather have?

Galway Eagle · « **Reply #5 on:** February 18, 2019, 07:33:36 AM »

Regular season for sure I've never been one who cares much for conference tournaments. Just seems like a little extra money grab before the real tournament

HowardsWorld · « **Reply #6 on:** February 18, 2019, 07:40:19 AM »

Quote from: 1SE on February 18, 2019, 07:21:22 AM

Yak yak yak.

For sure winning both and the NCAA tourney is best. But the point is which of the two would you rather have?

Regular season, not even a discussion.

tower912 · « **Reply #7 on:** February 18, 2019, 07:43:51 AM »

Body of work is better than one hot 3-4 day stretch.

1SE · « **Reply #8 on:** February 18, 2019, 08:02:20 AM »

Interesting. So people actually care about these outcomes in their own right?

My initial post is certainly an anecdotal sample - but if that's something that is statistical (i.e. teams that win their conference tournament but not regular season title either a) do better in NCAA overall or b) better relative to seed) wouldn't you rather win the thing that better portends NCAA success?

Also, my guess is that winning a conference tourney has some measurable impact on seed. I'd say we're far more likely to be a 2 seed if we win the BET but not the regular season title (i.e. lose at Nova and win out the rest) than if we win at Nova but then fail to win the BET.

HowardsWorld · « **Reply #9 on:** February 18, 2019, 08:19:05 AM »

Quote from: 1SE on February 18, 2019, 08:02:20 AM

Interesting. So people actually care about these outcomes in their own right?

My initial post is certainly an anecdotal sample - but if that's something that is statistical (i.e. teams that win their conference tournament but not regular season title either a) do better in NCAA overall or b) better relative to seed) wouldn't you rather win the thing that better portends NCAA success?

Also, my guess is that winning a conference tourney has some measurable impact on seed. I'd say we're far more likely to be a 2 seed if we win the BET but not the regular season title (i.e. lose at Nova and win out the rest) than if we win at Nova but then fail to win the BET.

This has been proven false over the last 5 years. If you are boarding the 2/3 line and then 2 losses and you pick up wins over Nova and St. Johns then yes you will likely move up. If you are the last 3 and you have wins of Depaul, Georgetown, and Xavier in the BET thats not going to move you any.

Juan Anderson's Mixtape · « **Reply #10 on:** February 18, 2019, 08:21:06 AM »

Quote from: 1SE on February 18, 2019, 08:02:20 AM

Interesting. So people actually care about these outcomes in their own right?

My initial post is certainly an anecdotal sample - but if that's something that is statistical (i.e. teams that win their conference tournament but not regular season title either a) do better in NCAA overall or b) better relative to seed) wouldn't you rather win the thing that better portends NCAA success?

Also, my guess is that winning a conference tourney has some measurable impact on seed. I'd say we're far more likely to be a 2 seed if we win the BET but not the regular season title (i.e. lose at Nova and win out the rest) than if we win at Nova but then fail to win the BET.

You are confusing correlation with causation. There are plenty of anecdotes of teams that lose early in their conference tournaments but go on deep tournament runs.

For example, 2003 champs Syracuse and Final Four Marquette. Both lost in the quarterfinals of their conference tournaments.

The 2004 Syracuse team that won the BET lost in the first round.

The best of the best usually win both the regular season and conference tournament titles. Simply put, the best teams win a lot of games, period.

warriorchick · « **Reply #11 on:** February 18, 2019, 08:22:26 AM »

Pepe Sylvia · « **Reply #12 on:** February 18, 2019, 08:32:05 AM »

I've seen MU win the conference regular season. I haven't seen them win the BET. So I want to see them win the BET.

TAMU, Knower of Ball · « **Reply #13 on:** February 18, 2019, 08:33:26 AM »

Regular season is definitely worth more. That being said, I have never seen us win a BET and I have a seen a Big East regular season championship so I kinda want to get the BET championship off the bucket list.

But I'm with Chick, let's just win the next 9 games and get both

1SE · « **Reply #14 on:** February 18, 2019, 08:48:55 AM »

Quote from: warriorchick on February 18, 2019, 08:22:26 AM

To win both we'll probably have to beat Nova in Philly and New York. I'm not sure what the odds are on that, but certainly no better than .25.

MU82 · « **Reply #15 on:** February 18, 2019, 08:50:48 AM »

The sample size in the OP is far too limited to "portent" anything.

I'd far, far, far prefer the regular-season championship, which reflects season-long excellence and which usually affects NCAA seeding more than a tournament championship does.

Of course, I'd love to see us win our first BET title, and if we get to the championship game and we lose a close one, I'll be bummed for that moment. But I really won't lose one second of sleep if we don't win the BET, even if we lose our first game. The BET title gives a nice banner to hang, but it means little in the grand scheme IMHO. Just ask Virginia players and coaches.

Personally, I'd trade the BET title for a S16 appearance (or better). Not that it's possible to make such a trade, and not that we can't achieve both, but that's my thinking.

1SE · « **Reply #16 on:** February 18, 2019, 08:52:34 AM »

Quote from: Lazar's Headband on February 18, 2019, 08:21:06 AM

You are confusing correlation with causation. There are plenty of anecdotes of teams that lose early in their conference tournaments but go on deep tournament runs.

For example, 2003 champs Syracuse and Final Four Marquette. Both lost in the quarterfinals of their conference tournaments.

The 2004 Syracuse team that won the BET lost in the first round.

The best of the best usually win both the regular season and conference tournament titles. Simply put, the best teams win a lot of games, period.

Right - I said the BE post-2006 story was an anecdote. 2003 Cuse and Marquette is another anecdote.

But over the population of teams that have won their conference tourney but not the regular season, or vice-versa, there is probably some statistically significant difference in how they perform (relative to seed) in the Tourney.

For the sake of argument - IF that data suggested tourney performers did better, would that change your mind about what you'd want?

GooooMarquette · « **Reply #17 on:** February 18, 2019, 08:54:46 AM »

Quote from: warriorchick on February 18, 2019, 08:22:26 AM

No half measures, 'eh?

UWW2MU · « **Reply #18 on:** February 18, 2019, 09:00:11 AM »

I've always viewed the regular season games just like any sport, in which winning your conference is great and all, but you're really playing to put yourself in the best position for the "post season." So for me it is largely about seeding in the BET and NCAAT so you can truly win the championships.

I can see why people disagree, but this is my personal view on it.

HowardsWorld · « **Reply #19 on:** February 18, 2019, 09:02:42 AM »

Quote from: UWW2MU on February 18, 2019, 09:00:11 AM

I've always viewed the regular season games just like any sport, in which winning your conference is great and all, but you're really playing to put yourself in the best position for the "post season." So for me it is largely about seeding in the BET and NCAAT so you can truly win the championships.

I can see why people disagree, but this is my personal view on it.

I agree with this as well. To be honest if Marquette wins either the BET or the Regular Season title, anything short of a S16 would be a disappointment.

BM1090 · « **Reply #20 on:** February 18, 2019, 09:06:58 AM »

Regular season.

But I'll be at MSG this year so winning the BET would be pretty sweet.

MU82 · « **Reply #21 on:** February 18, 2019, 09:13:22 AM »

Quote from: HowardsWorld on February 18, 2019, 09:02:42 AM

~~I agree with this as well. To be honest if Marquette wins either the BET or the Regular Season title,~~ anything short of a S16 would be a disappointment.

FIFY.

All of us will be disappointed if we don't get to the second weekend because we're good enough to do it. The level of disappointment from Scooper to Scooper will vary, of course.

Cheeks · « **Reply #22 on:** February 18, 2019, 09:16:16 AM »

Regular season

HowardsWorld · « **Reply #23 on:** February 18, 2019, 09:18:46 AM »

Quote from: MU82 on February 18, 2019, 09:13:22 AM

FIFY.

All of us will be disappointed if we don't get to the second weekend because we're good enough to do it. The level of disappointment from Scooper to Scooper will vary, of course.

LOL MUGURU will need help.

Juan Anderson's Mixtape · « **Reply #24 on:** February 18, 2019, 09:19:23 AM »

Quote from: 1SE on February 18, 2019, 08:52:34 AM

Right - I said the BE post-2006 story was an anecdote. 2003 Cuse and Marquette is another anecdote.

But over the population of teams that have won their conference tourney but not the regular season, or vice-versa, there is probably some statistically significant difference in how they perform (relative to seed) in the Tourney.

For the sake of argument - IF that data suggested tourney performers did better, would that change your mind about what you'd want?

I have no opinion on hypothetical evidence. Please provide real evidence, and then I will give my opinion.

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Author Topic: BET or Regular Season Championship? (Read 6921 times)