Markus & Joey

[buckchuckler]

But it is not a free shot. If it was, they would just give you the points. The best FT shooting team in the country this season misses 20% of their free throws. On average teams miss 32% of their free throws.

Isn't this exactly why they matter?  They aren't free points.  Having guys that can execute gives you an advantage over the other team.  Having guys that excel at getting to the line and making them gives you an even more significant advantage.

[buckchuckler]

The funny thing about the 2008 Memphis/KU example, Memphis only shot 59.6% from the free throw line that season. They shot 63.2% from the line that game, so above their average. If they had shot their average, they would have lost the game in regulation. Sure if they had an above average FT shooting night, they could have won the game. But if they have even a slightly below average night in eFG% or eFG% defense, they win the game by multiple possessions. The latter seems more significant to me, but the focus even 10 years later is still on missed FTs.

At the end of the game, with everything that happened behind them, they can't go back and change the possessions that have already occurred.  What was in their control was hitting the free throws in front of them.  Could they have played better to that point?  Yeah, sure.  Does playing a better team than they had played all year impact where their eFG%s were in that game?  Yeah, probably.  They had the game to win, they didn't execute their free throws, seems like it mattered. 

[Marcus92]

#FTsNoMatter has nothing to do with the importance of individual free throws in an individual game.

Free throws count as points, just like 2-point and 3-point baskets. Score more points than the other team, and you win the game. That's obvious to anyone who's ever watched basketball. Clearly, making or missing free throws can impact the outcome of a game.

But according to Dean Oliver, Ken Pomeroy and others who mathematically break down the keys to winning and losing (points are numbers, and the relationships between numbers is math), four factors matter most:

1. Shooting (eFG%)
2. Turnovers (TO%)
3. Rebounding (ORB%)
4. Free Throws (FTRate, or FTA/FGA)

Those are listed in priority order. How well a team shoots the ball from the field is statistically more important to predicting victory than any other factor. Free throw rate (how often a team gets to the line, or the ratio of foul shots to field goal attempts) is statistically the least important factor. But you need all four.

Team free throw percentage is not a statistically important factor in predicting whether a team wins or loses. Dean Oliver puts it simply: "Teams that get to the line more are more effective than teams that make a higher percentage of their free throws."

There's some disagreement over just how much weight each factor gets. In fact, the importance of each factor can vary from team to team. Regardless, this isn't just theory. It's strategic analytics. You can learn more about it here:

http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/20040601_roboscout.htm
https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html
https://kenpom.com/blog/four-factors/

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Whew, that's all?  Good thing that a point or two never matters in the outcome of the game. 

So is it your bold contention that being better on offense and defense will result in better basketball?  Huh.  That seems weird, not sure I buy that.

Has anyone ever said the FT% is the most important stat?  I have never heard that.  But they play a role in the game.  And in many cases, After everything else that happens in the game, sometimes it comes down to a guy hitting his free throws.  After all the eFG, and defense and rebounds, sometimes the game basically ends on the free throw line.  Situationally, they can certainly matter.  And to dismiss them out of hand seems like you are getting too caught up in the numbers and losing sight of what is actually happening in the game.

Again #FTsNoMatta is short for #TeamFT%MattasVeryLittleInImpactingWhichTeamWillWinaBasketballGame (changed determining to impacting at Goooo's suggestion). It's not that they don't matta at all. It's that they don't matta as much as most people think.

At the end of the game, with everything that happened behind them, they can't go back and change the possessions that have already occurred.  What was in their control was hitting the free throws in front of them.  Could they have played better to that point?  Yeah, sure.  Does playing a better team than they had played all year impact where their eFG%s were in that game?  Yeah, probably.  They had the game to win, they didn't execute their free throws, seems like it mattered. 

Why do we get to dismiss everything that happened before the missed FTs but not the missed FTs? 10 years later, and all the focus is still on the missed FTs at the end. Why not missed open jumpers and layups? Why not dumb unforced turnovers? Why not not boxing out and giving up an offensive rebound that led to second chance points? Why not blown defensive assignments that led to easy points? All of these impacted the game as a whole more than the missed FTs at the end, but because the FTs were at the end of the game that's where we focus all our attention.

[MU82]

How 'bout that Markus and Joey!

[TSmith34, Inc.]

How 'bout that Markus and Joey!

They can really shoot free throws, which, depending on your perspective, either matters or doesn't.

[buckchuckler]

Again #FTsNoMatta is short for #TeamFT%MattasVeryLittleInImpactingWhichTeamWillWinaBasketballGame (changed determining to impacting at Goooo's suggestion). It's not that they don't matta at all. It's that they don't matta as much as most people think.

Why do we get to dismiss everything that happened before the missed FTs but not the missed FTs? 10 years later, and all the focus is still on the missed FTs at the end. Why not missed open jumpers and layups? Why not dumb unforced turnovers? Why not not boxing out and giving up an offensive rebound that led to second chance points? Why not blown defensive assignments that led to easy points? All of these impacted the game as a whole more than the missed FTs at the end, but because the FTs were at the end of the game that's where we focus all our attention.

You should mean what you say and say what you mean.  Saying they matter less than other components of the game is fine, and you would get little disagreement.  Saying they don't matter is ridiculous. 

You can't dismiss everything else, but in getting to the end of the game, they could have overcome the other aspects by hitting their free throws.  It matters more because it was the last thing that happened.  In a football game missing a FG in the first half has the same impact as missing one as time expires, but one gets remembered more.  Giving up runs in the 7th inning counts the same as giving them up in the 9th, but the runs in the 9th get remembered.  The Bears had plenty of ways they could have won their game against the Eagles, but in the end, they could have made a easily make-able field goal.  They didn't.  The missed FG is what will be remembered. 

[Bocephys]

They can really shoot free throws, which, depending on your perspective, either matters or doesn't.

It matters in the micro, and not in the macro.

[MUBigDance]

How 'bout that Markus and Joey!

Who?, do you mean eMH and eJH?

[buckchuckler]

How 'bout that Markus and Joey!

Yeah.  Sorry.  I'll be done derailing the train.

[Marcus92]

Perhaps the ultimate example of #FTsNoMatta is Incarnate Word (yes, they actually compete in Division I basketball).

The Cardinals average 79.7% from the free throw line this season, good for #2 nationally. But that's one of the few bright spots of their season. They rank in the bottom 50 in turnover rate, offensive rebounding, field goal percentage defense, defensive rebounding and defensive free throw rate. Opponents shoot an astounding 62.2% against them from 2-point range.

Their record: 6-18 overall, just 1-10 in the Southland Conference. Four of their wins came against non-Division I teams.

And they wouldn't be much better even if they made 100% of their free throws.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

It matters in the micro, and not in the macro.

Sure, but what about in the Fiserv?

[wadesworld]

Perhaps the ultimate example of #FTsNoMatta is Incarnate Word (yes, they actually compete in Division I basketball).

The Cardinals average 79.7% from the free throw line this season, good for #2 nationally. But that's one of the few bright spots of their season. They rank in the bottom 50 in turnover rate, offensive rebounding, field goal percentage defense, defensive rebounding and defensive free throw rate. Opponents shoot an astounding 62.2% against them from 2-point range.

Their record: 6-18 overall, just 1-10 in the Southland Conference. Four of their wins came against non-Division I teams.

And they wouldn't be much better even if they made 100% of their free throws.

And nobody disagrees.  Which is the point of my original post on the topic in this thread.  Nobody in the preseason was talking about how good Incarnate Word could be because of their great free throw shooting.  The importance of a team's free throw shooting isn't overblown.  It's only discussed when a team loses a close game where they shot awfully from the free throw line...aka when it made a difference in the outcome of a game.  Nobody talks about free throw shooting as an indicator for how good or bad a team is.

[MU82]

Nobody talks about free throw shooting as an indicator for how good or bad a team is.

In his bracket predictions, Bilas did note that while Happ is a good player he is a bad FT shooter. It took up one sentence in a Wisconsin capsule that was about 50 words long. I guess that means perhaps the most astute basketball observer among the talking heads thinks FTs matta.

But again ...

How 'bout Markus and Joey?!?!

I've noticed that Markus is a good basketball player, and Joey isn't half-bad, either.

[rocky_warrior]

They can really shoot free throws, which, depending on your perspective, either matters or doesn't.

It absolutely matters!  It's just that if you break team basketball into a set of 4 statistics for predictive purposes, the fact that they can really shoot free throws matters the least, of the 4, especially considering that the stat really only matters if they actually get to the FT line, and doesn't actually measure how well they shoot FTs - as a team.

The hashtag would be better as #TeamFtPercentageNoMattaButFtAttemptsDoALittleBit

So JB really causes this debate by his inaccurate hashtag, and TAMU somehow defends it

[GooooMarquette]

If we're looking for some statistical number that is 100% effective in explaining why a team won a game, why not keep it simple?

TPS/OTPS*

If it's over 1.0, you WILL win. Better at explaining wins and losses than eFG%, TO%, ORB%, FTR, ORTG and yes, even FT%. Just make sure your TPS/OTPS is over 1.0, and you have yourself a W.

You're all welcome.




*Total Points Scored/Opponent Total Points Scored

[Cheeks]

Nobody talks about free throw shooting as an indicator for how good or bad a team is.

Not sure I totally agree here.  It's the sum of the parts, isn't it?  If you are a good free throw shooting team, it doesn't mean you are a good team....we all agree.  However, if you are a good team and also a good free throw shooting team, you have a probability advantage of doing better than a good team that is mediocre at free throw shooting.

It's a bit like a baseball team with a great closer / bullpen.  You basically have to be good for 7 innings and rely on the bullpen.  A good free throw shooting team can seal games for you at the end that can be the deciding edge in the end result.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

So JB really causes this debate by his inaccurate hashtag, and TAMU somehow defends it

So we can all pedantically scream "FAKE NEWS", "LIES" any time he uses it?

[Marcus92]

In his bracket predictions, Bilas did note that while Happ is a good player he is a bad FT shooter.

Happ's poor performance at the line is quite stunning. Through 14 conference games this season, he's made just 22 of 63 free throws. That's 34.9%. Yeeesh. At this point Hack-A-Happ looks like a pretty good strategy, if you can manage the fouls.

[Cheeks]

But it is not a free shot. If it was, they would just give you the points. The best FT shooting team in the country this season misses 20% of their free throws. On average teams miss 32% of their free throws.

I understand what you are saying, but all I and the others who say #FTsNoMatta are trying to point out is the impact of different stats on the game. Yes, team FT% can make an impact on a game. Just not nearly as much of an impact as other more significant stats.

The funny thing about the 2008 Memphis/KU example, Memphis only shot 59.6% from the free throw line that season. They shot 63.2% from the line that game, so above their average. If they had shot their average, they would have lost the game in regulation. Sure if they had an above average FT shooting night, they could have won the game. But if they have even a slightly below average night in eFG% or eFG% defense, they win the game by multiple possessions. The latter seems more significant to me, but the focus even 10 years later is still on missed FTs.

OK, free shot attempts.  Bonus points that are there for you if you make your shots, which is why FT's matter to an extent. No one guarding you, just you and the ball and the basket.  There for the taking. 

Actually, the free throw stat for Memphis is a bit misleading in that championship game.  Yes, they did shoot above their average FT%, but below the number of attempts.  They averaged 24.92 attempts per game going into that championship.  They only shot 19 in the championship but if they shot their normal 25 per game at their normal 59% clip, they get almost 3 extra points.  Of course the other critical part of FT shooting is what you do in the 1 and 1 situation, because if you miss the first you don't get a second shot.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

OK, free shot attempts.  Bonus points that are there for you if you make your shots, which is why FT's matter to an extent. No one guarding you, just you and the ball and the basket.  There for the taking. 

Actually, the free throw stat for Memphis is a bit misleading in that championship game.  Yes, they did shoot above their average FT%, but below the number of attempts.  They averaged 24.92 attempts per game going into that championship.  They only shot 19 in the championship but if they shot their normal 25 per game at their normal 59% clip, they get almost 3 extra points.  Of course the other critical part of FT shooting is what you do in the 1 and 1 situation, because if you miss the first you don't get a second shot.

Yes, how often you get to the free throw line (which is measured by Free Throw Rate [FTR]) absolutely makes a huge impact in the game.

[UWW2MU]

For crying out loud, is there not a thread where this could be discussed that is dedicated to free throw percentages??

Let's get back on topic... 

Now, if Marcus and Joie were a free throw shot, who would be the ball and who would be the hoop?

[BrewCity83]

#MarkusandJoeyNoMatta

[buckchuckler]

If we're looking for some statistical number that is 100% effective in explaining why a team won a game, why not keep it simple?

TPS/OTPS*

If it's over 1.0, you WILL win. Better at explaining wins and losses than eFG%, TO%, ORB%, FTR, ORTG and yes, even FT%. Just make sure your TPS/OTPS is over 1.0, and you have yourself a W.

You're all welcome.




*Total Points Scored/Opponent Total Points Scored

[Jay Bee]

Has anyone ever said the FT% is the most important stat?  I have never heard that. 

Oh, people cry about, "we lost because we missed 8 free throws!" when they went 16/24 from the line on the day.

The thing is, in that situation the "bad" free throw shooting was actually ELITE offense and HELPED their offense.

If I tell you team A had a better eFG% than team B in a game, you'd bet money that team A won the game.

If I tell you team A had a better FT% than team B in a game, you'd have no idea who the eff won and wouldn't bet based on that.

#FTsNoMatta