[Cracked Sidewalks] Marquette's Path to a 2-Seed

[brewcity77]

I spent some time looking at odds of advancing in the NCAA Tournament by seed from March 2018, as Marquette is very close to playing for nothing but seeding. Even going 1-8 from here on out would put them at 20-12 (9-9) with 10+ Q1/2 wins & at most 1 Q3/4 loss. That's in.

On Bracket Matrix, Marquette is projected on the 3-line, where I also have them below. Being a 2-seed significantly improves a team's odds of March success. In the first round, 2-seeds were 124-8 and 3-seeds were 111-21. 62.9% of 2-seeds get to the Sweet 16, while for 3-seeds it's basically a coin flip at 50.8%. The goal for Marquette should be a 2-seed because it significantly improves their chances of making a run in March.

At this point, I feel there are 6 teams penciled on the first two lines. Virginia, Tennessee, Michigan, Duke, Michigan State, & Gonzaga seem certain to be up there. That leaves I believe 10 teams fighting for those two spots. However, those spots will not go to teams from the same league. Of the 10 teams in the mix, I will assume two will overachieve by 2 wins on Pomeroy to get to a 2-seed. The table below looks at current NET ranking, the Pomeroy regular season projection with two wins added, & records by Quadrant assuming teams get those wins in the easiest quadrants.

Code Select Expand

Team          NET Rank   Kenpom +2 W    Q1 W/L    Q2 W/L     Q3/4 Losses
Kentucky         7         26-5          10-2       7-1          0
Houston          8         30-1           5-1      10-0          0
North Carolina   9         25-6           9-6       9-0          0
Purdue          11         24-7          10-6       6-1          0
Louisville      12         23-8           8-8       6-0          0
Iowa State      14         25-6           9-4       5-2          0
Texas Tech      15         25-6           8-5       9-0          0
Marquette       18         27-4           8-4       9-0          0
Kansas          20         24-7          11-6       8-1          0
Villanova       21         26-5           7-3      12-1          1

First of all, these projections all look at teams overachieving. Of the 10 teams listed, it's safe to say a couple will overachieve significantly (2+ wins), a couple will underachieve significantly (4 fewer wins than above), & the rest will be within 1 win of projection (-1 to -3 wins). So statistically, I looked at the scenario that made Marquette the clear favorite in the event that everyone overachieved. To be assured a 2-seed, Marquette likely needs to go 8-1 the rest of the way, though 7-2 will have them solidly in the discussion.

They definitely need to win their lower quadrant games, vs Georgetown, St. John's, Butler, Creighton, and at DePaul. That insures they would be no worse than tied for the best Q2 Record & Q3/4 Loss totals. That leaves their 4 Quadrant 1 games. They play at Seton Hall, at Providence, & both Villanova games. Go 3-1 or even 2-2 in those games & Marquette will likely have the record to be on the 2-line. Some teams will have more Q1 wins, but few will have a better Q1 winning percentage & only Houston would have both a better Q1 winning percentage with no Q2 or worse losses.

There has been some worry about Marquette's losses looking worse of late. While that's true, Kansas is still top-20 in the NET (top-50 neutral are Q1) & St. John's & Indiana are both top-50 (top-75 road are Q1). It seems unlikely any of them will fall out of the top Quadrant.

Bottom line for Marquette, 7-2 will get them strongly into the mix for a 2-seed, 8-1 will all but guarantee it. Pomeroy projects them to go 6-3 from here on out, so they will need to overachieve a bit, but that's nothing new for a team that's been overachieving all season.

Here's the updated S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-VIRGINIA, 2-TENNESSEE, 3-Michigan, 4-Duke
2-Seeds: 8-Kentucky, 7-North Carolina, 6-GONZAGA, 5-MICHIGAN STATE
3-Seeds: 9-Marquette, 10-HOUSTON, 11-Kansas, 12-Louisville
4-Seeds: 16-Wisconsin, 15-Lsu, 14-Texas Tech, 13-Virginia Tech
5-Seeds: 17-Maryland, 18-Iowa, 19-VILLANOVA, 20-Purdue
6-Seeds: 24-Oklahoma, 23-Iowa State, 22-NEVADA, 21-BUFFALO
7-Seeds: 25-KANSAS STATE, 26-Florida State, 27-Nebraska, 28-Mississippi State
8-Seeds: 32-NC State, 31-Texas, 30-Minnesota, 29-Mississippi
9-Seeds: 33-Auburn, 34-Cincinnati, 35-Tcu, 36-Ohio State
10-Seeds: 40-St. John's, 39-Seton Hall, 38-Syracuse, 37-Baylor
11-Seeds: 41-Alabama, 42-WASHINGTON, 43-LIPSCOMB, 44-WOFFORD
12-Seeds: 50-RADFORD, 49-HOFSTRA, 48-Florida/47-Indiana, 46-Temple/45-Arizona State
13-Seeds: 51-VERMONT, 52-GRAND CANYON, 53-TEXAS STATE, 54-YALE
14-Seeds: 58-OLD DOMINION, 57-LOYOLA CHICAGO, 56-UC IRVINE, 55-NORTHERN KENTUCKY
15-Seeds: 59-GEORGE MASON, 60-BUCKNELL, 61-SOUTH DAKOTA ST, 62-JACKSONVILLE ST
16-Seeds: 68-ROBERT MORRIS/67-PVAMU, 66-SAM HOUSTON ST/65-RIDER, 64-NORFOLK ST, 63-NORTHERN COLORADO

Last Four Byes: Syracuse, Seton Hall, St. John's, Alabama
Last Four In: Arizona State, Temple, Indiana, Florida
NIT 1-Seeds: Utah State, UCF, Arizona, Butler
NIT 2-Seeds: Creighton, UNC Greensboro, VCU, Belmont

[MU82]

Interesting stuff, brewski.

The only tiny nit I'll pick is with this line:

The goal for Marquette should be a 2-seed because it significantly improves their chances of making a run in March.

Coaches and athletes don't think this way. The goal is to win every game; that sounds obvious and/or cliche, but it's true. Do that, and the seeding takes care of itsself. Come close to doing that, and our lads (and us fans) likely will be quite happy with the seeding.

We fans would like our heroes to be a 2-seed. Their goal is to just keep winning. Now maybe if we get down to the last 2 games and we're 6-1, Wojo might let himself think, "If we can win these, we have a great chance to be a 2-seed." Even then, I doubt he'd say it publicly.

Excellent work. A very good read.

[MUBigDance]

When brew starts off a new post with "I spent some time looking at..."   Watch out baby! 

Haven't gone through it yet...but first thought is...can we do a 2 without winning out?

[brewcity77]

When brew starts off a new post with "I spent some time looking at..."   Watch out baby! 

Haven't gone through it yet...but first thought is...can we do a 2 without winning out?

The simple answer is yes. If we get to 26 wins (7-2) we have a shot, if we get to 27 wins (8-1) we are very likely to be a 2-seed. If we win out and win the BET, we might have a shot at a 1-seed, but considering we'll still almost certainly be behind Gonzaga, at least one of Duke/Virginia, at least one of Michigan/Michigan State, and would still have to find a way to get past Tennessee, I think it's highly, highly unlikely even if we enter the Tournament at 31-3.

[muguru]

Funny this discussion comes up right now...Palm has MU as a #2 as of today

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-kansas-slips-down-to-a-no-3-seed-in-the-latest-ncaa-tournament-bracket-projection/

[MUBigDance]

Nice stats and observations.
I see a one-loss regular season puts us at a clear advantage over even over-achieving teams...but I wonder about Houston. I can see them with 1 loss and as you observered a real nice Q1/Q2.  How does a team like Houston "smell" to the committee?  I think they could beat us out.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I will be interested to see where Marquette ranks in the initial release of 16.  That will give us a clue to the committee's thought process.

My gut says Scoop will be disappointed in MU's seed.  A 2 seed looks next to impossible.   Top 6 look pretty secure.

Tennessee
Duke
Virginia
Michigan
Michigan State
Gonzaga

I just don't think Marquette has enough opportunities to add significantly to its resumé due to a down BE.
 

[Its DJOver]

I will be interested to see where Marquette ranks in the initial release of 16.  That will give us a clue to the committee's thought process.

My gut says Scoop will be disappointed in MU's seed.  A 2 seed looks next to impossible.   Top 6 look pretty secure.

Tennessee
Duke
Virginia
Michigan
Michigan State
Gonzaga

I just don't think Marquette has enough opportunities to add significantly to its resumé due to a down BE.

This is supposed to be happening soon right?

[Marcus92]

According to KenPom, Houston has played exactly 3 Top 50 teams: #49 Oregon, #22 LSU and #41 Utah State. All at home. Their non-conference strength of schedule is ranked 302nd in Division I. How they do against #50 UCF and #25 Cincy (home/road games remaining with both) will be interesting.

[MU82]

Funny this discussion comes up right now...Palm has MU as a #2 as of today

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-kansas-slips-down-to-a-no-3-seed-in-the-latest-ncaa-tournament-bracket-projection/

In this bracket, our reward for being the No. 2 seed is a first-round matchup against a 2018 Final Four school that is cheered on by arguably the nation's most famous fan.

[SaveOD238]

Funny this discussion comes up right now...Palm has MU as a #2 as of today

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-kansas-slips-down-to-a-no-3-seed-in-the-latest-ncaa-tournament-bracket-projection/

What's amazing is that we're talking about a Final Four path for the men that goes through Des Moines and Louisville.  The fanbase will definitely make the drive for those, giving us a nice advantage.  The women have a chance to have their Final Four path go through Milwaukee and Chicago, which is even better.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I wouldn't pencil Tennessee and Michigan State in for two seeds quite yet. Both have had soft starts to their conference schedules and finish with brutal stretches,  Tennessee especially. Chances are they rise to the occasion but I see a possible scenario where both lose 3 or 4 more games and fall into the 2 seed range.

[Benny B]

I wouldn't pencil Tennessee and Michigan State in for two seeds quite yet. Both have had soft starts to their conference schedules and finish with brutal stretches,  Tennessee especially. Chances are they rise to the occasion but I see a possible scenario where both lose 3 or 4 more games and fall into the 2 seed range.

Is everyone else not concerned about how Moo U is going to fare without Langford?  Because while they may be a 2-seed right now, if I had to switch to a predictive method - i.e. where they'll be on Selection Sunday - my guess is around the 4-line somewhere.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Is everyone else not concerned about how Moo U is going to fare without Langford?  Because while they may be a 2-seed right now, if I had to switch to a predictive method - i.e. where they'll be on Selection Sunday - my guess is around the 4-line somewhere.

PGHero and I had this conversation in another thread. Langford is a big loss but even without him they are 7-1 and has included some pretty dominate performances at Ohio State, vs Maryland, and at Iowa. I do wonder about them going forward. At Wisconsin and Michigan x2 are three really tough games to win without Langford. I could see them dropping all three and maybe even one more and falling towards the back of the protected seeds.

The other challenge with dropping Michigan State is how many Q1 wins they have already racked up. They have 8 Q1 wins, which leads all teams and is 3+ more than most contenders:

Current Q1 Wins:
8 - Michigan State
7 - Kansas
6 - Duke
5 - Virginia, Michigan, Kentucky, North Carolina, Purdue, Wisconsin, Marquette, Baylor (but 2 Q4 losses?)
4 - Gonzaga, Tennessee, Louisville, Iowa State, Villanova, Maryland, Oklahoma, Kansas Sate, Texas, Minnesota
Top teams with less than 4 -  Texas Tech (3), Houston (2), Virginia Tech (2), Nevada (0)

Those kind of wins give Michigan State a nice cushion. Also, nice to see Marquette in the top 11 for most Q1 victories

[Silkk the Shaka]

Funny this discussion comes up right now...Palm has MU as a #2 as of today

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-kansas-slips-down-to-a-no-3-seed-in-the-latest-ncaa-tournament-bracket-projection/

LOL @ Palm referencing RPI in his Last 4 in / First 4 out. The guy straight up sucks at his job!

[Benny B]

PGHero and I had this conversation in another thread. Langford is a big loss but even without him they are 7-1 and has included some pretty dominate performances at Ohio State, vs Maryland, and at Iowa. I do wonder about them going forward. At Wisconsin and Michigan x2 are three really tough games to win without Langford. I could see them dropping all three and maybe even one more and falling towards the back of the protected seeds.

Incidentally, Moo U and Tenn are two potential obstacles in Marquette's path to a favorable first round site.  Consider that, based on geography here...

Michigan is going to Columbus, that's almost a given at this point.
Likewise, Duke is going to Columbia.  Bank on it.
Charlottesville is virtually equidistant to both Columbus and Columbia.
Knoxville is a bit closer to Columbia, but not much further from Columbus.
[So at this point, let's just assume Columbia and Columbus are full.]

In this scenario, it's pretty clear that MSU is headed to Des Moines.  So no problem, right?  Not that easy... our ol' friends down at Adolph-town, you see, are just a tiny bit closer to Des Moines than Jacksonville.  So if the committee just starts at the top of the S-Curve and allocates sites in order, MSU and UK are ahead of MU for Des Moines.  You sort of hope that they look at things holistically (e.g. the combined distances of Lexington-Jacksonville + Milwaukee-Des Moines being less than Lexington-Des Moines + Milwaukee-Tulsa), but there's no guarantee here with everything the committee has to consider in such a limited amount of time.

Now... even if MU can't leapfrog MSU, if UK can leapfrog Tennessee, then UK would go to Columbus, leaving Jacksonville as the superior option for Tennessee and keeping an open spot for MU in Des Moines.  Got it?

tl;dr --- Cheer against Tenn, against MSU, and for UK.

[Silkk the Shaka]

In this bracket, our reward for being the No. 2 seed is a first-round matchup against a 2018 Final Four school that is cheered on by arguably the nation's most famous fan.

Luckily they're back to mediocre this year (not that I'm breaking any news to you) and the whole nation would be watching for the Cinderella factor while we wipe the floor with them!

[DoctorV]

I can probably find this if u search but it's easier to just ask-

I know the NET slightly adjusted Q1/Q2 midseason and I'm curious if Nova at home is projected to be a Q1 game? I'm assuming Nova away is definitely a Q1 opportunity but I was just wondering how many Q1 games are left on the schedule?

Thanks goodness for a strong OOC so we aren't sitting here with a solid team and poor computer numbers

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Remember when Davidson was the trendy pick in 2013?

Granted, everyone was almost right but that's beside the point.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I can probably find this if u search but it's easier to just ask-

I know the NET slightly adjusted Q1/Q2 midseason and I'm curious if Nova at home is projected to be a Q1 game? I'm assuming Nova away is definitely a Q1 opportunity but I was just wondering how many Q1 games are left on the schedule?

Thanks goodness for a strong OOC so we aren't sitting here with a solid team and poor computer numbers

Nova home is Q1B (16-30).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I can probably find this if u search but it's easier to just ask-

I know the NET slightly adjusted Q1/Q2 midseason and I'm curious if Nova at home is projected to be a Q1 game? I'm assuming Nova away is definitely a Q1 opportunity but I was just wondering how many Q1 games are left on the schedule?

Thanks goodness for a strong OOC so we aren't sitting here with a solid team and poor computer numbers

Q1 and Q2 didn't change adjust per say, they just broke them into Q1a, Q1b,  Q2a,  and Q2b. Any game that was Q1/Q2 before is still a Q1/Q2 today.

There are four Q1 games left in the regular season (with the current NET scores): Nova x2, at Seton Hall, and at Providence. At Providence and Nova at home could drop to Q2 but I doubt it

[brewcity77]

I just don't think Marquette has enough opportunities to add significantly to its resumé due to a down BE.

That's an interesting thought, but I actually think the opposite may be true. Consider the remaining schedules for the teams in the mix:

Kentucky (11 Games, 3rd toughest)
Average Kenpom Home Rating (6): 40
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 40

Kentucky's road is equally tough home and away but they are tied for the highest number of games remaining and 7/11 games are against teams in Pomeroy's top-31. They probably have the third toughest schedule.

Houston (9 Games, 10th toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (4): 71.8
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 139

Houston has the easiest average schedule but it's deceiving. They still have 4 games against the AAC's next two highest ranked teams, Cincinnati and UCF. They also have a road game at UConn, who is just behind Temple (their only loss) in Pomeroy's rankings. They also have the smallest margin for error. 2-3 losses will take them out of 2-seed contention.

North Carolina (11 Games, 4th toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (6): 32.2
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 69.4

UNC is fortunate in that their toughest games are at home, but they are home underdogs twice (UVA & Duke) & do have two tough road games at Louisville (beat them by 20 at home) & Duke. Being underdogs 4 times increases their difficulty.

Purdue (10 Games, 7th toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (5): 53
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 40.6

On paper, Purdue is favored in every game, but their "easiest" road game is against Pomeroy's #61 team. Like Houston, they have a small margin for error. Not because of their conference, but rather because they already have 6 losses.

Louisville (10 Games, 1st Toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (5): 29.8
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 37.8

The Cards only play 2 games outside Pomeroy's top-50. They don't get many off nights, and with 5 losses already, don't have much room for error. They can't afford more than 3 losses, which is a big ask for a team that plays UVa twice, hosts Duke & UNC, and has road games at Va Tech & Syracuse.

Iowa State (10 Games, 2nd toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (5): 28.6
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 48.2

Iowa State is the on-paper favorite to win the Big 12, but 8 of their remaining 10 are against Pomeroy top-35 teams. They are favored in all 10 games, but with 5 losses already can't afford many slips.

Texas Tech (10 Games, 5th toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (5): 52.4
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 34.4

They still have Kansas twice and a trip to Ames to play an ISU team that already beat them. TTU faces the toughest set of road games of any team on this list.

Marquette (9 Games, 9th toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (5): 52.2
Average Kenpom Away Rating (4): 75.8

Marquette has two big advantages here. First, they only have 9 games remaining, giving them fewer chances to slip up, and second their toughest games are at home. If they win their next two, they seem a solid bet to finish their home schedule unbeaten, and 3 of their 4 road games are against teams in the bottom half of Big East kenpom ratings (68, 76, 120). If Marquette does get to 10-1 on NMD, they will look like a solid bet to finish at least 15-3 and solidly in the mix for a 2-seed.

Kansas (10 Games, 6th toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (5): 54.4
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 40.4

The Jayhawks have been money at home, though that will be tested Saturday by Texas Tech. They have a tough slate of road games and are underdogs in 3 of them. 7 of their 10 remaining games are against Kenpom top-50 teams.

Villanova (10 Games, 8th toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (5): 59
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 64.2

Villanova has a very similar schedule to Marquette, slightly easier at home, slightly tougher on the road, but they also carry a Q2 & Q3 loss, so they need to do more work to get to the same result. Villanova has to win the Big East outright to get ahead of Marquette. The key will be a four road games in five stretch in February that starts on NMD.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Damn Brew, this is truly great stuff. Major value add to the board

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Brew-

My thought process is that the committee will emphasize Q1A wins.  Marquette is behind the 1 seeds with no chance of catching them.  Even the 2 seeds are well positioned ahead of Marquette.

The teams I don't see Marquette catching are at all:

Duke
Tennessee
Virginia
Michigan
Michigan State

Then add Kentucky,  UNC, Louisville,  Gonzaga, and Kansas.  Can Marquette finish better than 3 of those teams?  That is a tall order.

Plus, watch out for Texas Tech, Iowa St, LSU, Purdue, Virginia Tech, and Wisconsin if any of them get on a roll.  Even Villanova could pass Marquette.

I think a 3 is the ceiling.  Maybe even a 4.

[SoCalEagle]

Michigan is down by 13 to unranked Iowa at the half.