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Author Topic: We're Number 1!  (Read 708 times)

brewcity77

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We're Number 1!
« on: January 10, 2019, 11:02:15 AM »
Yes, Sam Hauser's three was the #1 play on SportsCenter last night, but that wasn't the only way we were (and are) #1. Marquette's win last night was the most improbable win of the entire season, and the most improbable since Nevada overcame a 90-76 deficit with 1:16 to play at New Mexico on January 7, 2017. Here's the graph from kenpom.com:



Bart Torvik's graph actually went below the Y-axis. His lowest rating puts it at 0.1%, which is incredibly low, but just think about the point where Chartouny missed the first putback attempt. When he put his second shot up, we were trailing by 5 with a second to play. The make would give them the ball. That's basically unwinnable.



Here are some of the most improbable comebacks by Marquette teams over the past few years:

  • 1.1% Villanova at Marquette: Trailing 68-55 with 5:43 to play, it seemed the game was over, but our odds of winning were still 11 times higher than they were last night. Marquette's furious rally late, Katin Reinhardt's clutch play, Sam Hauser securing the final rebound, and #1 fell in our previous most improbable win in recent memory.
  • 3.0% Connecticut at Marquette: Marquette trailed 69-66 with 0:05 to play and hadn't hit a three the entire night when Junior nailed one at the buzzer to force overtime. I remember because it was New Year's Day, I was still hungover, it was really cold, and I didn't go to the Bradley Center for that game. Man, do I regret not making the trip for that one.
  • 3.1% Marquette at Providence: This was Howard's other 50+ point game. We trailed 79-73 with 1:17 to play before the late rally to tie and Markus went off in OT to secure the win.
  • 4.6% Marquette v Davidson: We trailed 56-51 with 0:41 to play and had been missing from three all night. Suddenly, Vander Blue and Jamil Wilson couldn't miss, Davidson threw a ball out of bounds in somewhat reminiscent to last night fashion, and Vander Blue drove and laid it in.
  • 8.0% Marquette v Louisville: This game was our previous most unlikely win of the season. Trailing 67-63 with 0:44 to play, we were 80 times more likely to win than the Creighton game last night.
There are certainly more. Other wins that were below 5% chance of winning, but even looking at overtime games, it's really uncommon to come back when you have such a small chance of winning (I suppose that should go without saying). Last night was the kind of historic comeback we will remember for a generation and then some, though will still be overshadowed by games like Davidson that occurred on a bigger stage.

There have been ups and downs this year, but I really feel this is a special season we are watching. From Markus' scoring barrage to the opening of the Fiserv Forum to Sam's three to our overtime record, it's been thrilling. It's a heck of a moment to be living in, especially after some disappointments the past few years.

Mr. Sand-Knit

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Re: We're Number 1!
« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2019, 12:09:39 PM »
Crazy stuff. 
Political free board, plz leave your clever quips in your clever mind.

Mr. Sand-Knit

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Re: We're Number 1!
« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2019, 12:10:49 PM »
Now your call that st johns would finish in the bottom 3 of the BE and behind Depaul, not so much
Political free board, plz leave your clever quips in your clever mind.

Windyplayer

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Re: We're Number 1!
« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2019, 12:14:02 PM »
Yes, Sam Hauser's three was the #1 play on SportsCenter last night, but that wasn't the only way we were (and are) #1. Marquette's win last night was the most improbable win of the entire season, and the most improbable since Nevada overcame a 90-76 deficit with 1:16 to play at New Mexico on January 7, 2017. Here's the graph from kenpom.com:



Bart Torvik's graph actually went below the Y-axis. His lowest rating puts it at 0.1%, which is incredibly low, but just think about the point where Chartouny missed the first putback attempt. When he put his second shot up, we were trailing by 5 with a second to play. The make would give them the ball. That's basically unwinnable.



Here are some of the most improbable comebacks by Marquette teams over the past few years:

  • 1.1% Villanova at Marquette: Trailing 68-55 with 5:43 to play, it seemed the game was over, but our odds of winning were still 11 times higher than they were last night. Marquette's furious rally late, Katin Reinhardt's clutch play, Sam Hauser securing the final rebound, and #1 fell in our previous most improbable win in recent memory.
  • 3.0% Connecticut at Marquette: Marquette trailed 69-66 with 0:05 to play and hadn't hit a three the entire night when Junior nailed one at the buzzer to force overtime. I remember because it was New Year's Day, I was still hungover, it was really cold, and I didn't go to the Bradley Center for that game. Man, do I regret not making the trip for that one.
  • 3.1% Marquette at Providence: This was Howard's other 50+ point game. We trailed 79-73 with 1:17 to play before the late rally to tie and Markus went off in OT to secure the win.
  • 4.6% Marquette v Davidson: We trailed 56-51 with 0:41 to play and had been missing from three all night. Suddenly, Vander Blue and Jamil Wilson couldn't miss, Davidson threw a ball out of bounds in somewhat reminiscent to last night fashion, and Vander Blue drove and laid it in.
  • 8.0% Marquette v Louisville: This game was our previous most unlikely win of the season. Trailing 67-63 with 0:44 to play, we were 80 times more likely to win than the Creighton game last night.
There are certainly more. Other wins that were below 5% chance of winning, but even looking at overtime games, it's really uncommon to come back when you have such a small chance of winning (I suppose that should go without saying). Last night was the kind of historic comeback we will remember for a generation and then some, though will still be overshadowed by games like Davidson that occurred on a bigger stage.

There have been ups and downs this year, but I really feel this is a special season we are watching. From Markus' scoring barrage to the opening of the Fiserv Forum to Sam's three to our overtime record, it's been thrilling. It's a heck of a moment to be living in, especially after some disappointments the past few years.
This is awesome. Thank you.

TallTitan34

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Re: We're Number 1!
« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2019, 12:28:33 PM »
Now your call that st johns would finish in the bottom 3 of the BE and behind Depaul, not so much

Marquette Database Spreadsheet: https://tinyurl.com/mualmanac-02-25-2019

D'Lo Brown

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Re: We're Number 1!
« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2019, 03:12:20 PM »
Excellent post