NFL 2018-19 2.0

[Jockey]

Kapernick and Reid settle their collusion case with a confidentiality agreement. Mike Freeman is already hearing that Kaepernick was paid somewhere in the $60M to $80M range.

I was going to start a thread on this but will just add to this one instead. Was going to ask for opinions on amount they received. My over/under was going to be $49.5 million. I would definitely have been betting the over.

Whether it rose to the level of actual collusion, there was penty of evidence - which the NFL obviously realized - to prove that not signing Kaep was not based on football results.

[tower912]

Good.   Over.   

[forgetful]

Kapernick and Reid settle their collusion case with a confidentiality agreement. Mike Freeman is already hearing that Kaepernick was paid somewhere in the $60M to $80M range.

Hmmm. In my experience entities that have done nothing wrong whatsoever, often settle by paying the other party $60-80M.

[Pakuni]

Hmmm. In my experience entities that have done nothing wrong whatsoever, often settle by paying the other party $60-80M.

Can't wait to hear more about the "geniuses" who run the NFL.

[Cheeks]

Can't wait to hear more about the "geniuses" who run the NFL.

The amount of money lost by the NFL and various entities that support it, PALES in comparison if that amount of the settlement is true.  Absolutely pales.  By nipping it in the bud, prior to new TV contracts, they can regain the value lost.  One study we had showed total loss in billions by NFL if they didn't get a handle on it.  NFL isn't stupid, this is peanuts for them....one time $60M (if true), compared to lost value of billions.  They will do that deal all day long and 10 times on Sunday.  Smart move even if you don't realize it because you aren't close enough to it.

[Pakuni]

The amount of money lost by the NFL and various entities that support it, PALES in comparison if that amount of the settlement is true.  Absolutely pales.  By nipping it in the bud, prior to new TV contracts, they can regain the value lost.  One study we had showed total loss in billions by NFL if they didn't get a handle on it.  NFL isn't stupid, this is peanuts for them....one time $60M (if true), compared to lost value of billions.  They will do that deal all day long and 10 times on Sunday.  Smart move even if you don't realize it because you aren't close enough to it.

Got it. A $60 million loss is actually great news because association with Colin Kaepernick would have cost the BILLIONS.
See: Nike.
World class spin zone, Cheeks. Preposterous, but an impressive effort nonetheless.

[cheebs09]

Smart move even if you don't realize it because you aren't close enough to it.

I will agree with tower that I'm glad it is over. Wonder what Kaepernicks next steps are.

[forgetful]

One study we had showed total loss in billions by NFL if they didn't get a handle on it. 

Hope you didn't pay for that study. If so, ask for your money back, and fire them if they work for you.

[Cheeks]

Hope you didn't pay for that study. If so, ask for your money back, and fire them if they work for you.

LOL.   Not hard to compute when you get into the ratings, the value per rating, consumer reactions, etc.  Again, you have 31 owners that have made an insane amount of money outside of the NFL, then they go to NFL and bring a lot of wisdom to the league along with their doers.  They know the value, this is absolute peanuts to them. The players know it, too, which is why they also came together....they know what's coming down the path and they aren't going to kill the golden goose.  Whether it is Morgan Stanley, McKinsey, Parks, insider research, networks, university studies, they all say the same thing and that is why everyone, players and league did their pivot. These people want to make money, not watch it go away or watch their values stagnate or even de-lever.

I'd love to hear your argument and numbers to justify it wasn't a slam dunk settlement for them to do and peanuts ultimately.  When the NFL takes in about $5B per year on TV revenue alone, and those contracts come due over next few years, nipping anything that causes an aggrevated slide = big revenue value preservation. HUGE when you view it over multiple years.

The Panthers sale was one of the big red flags in all of this.  They got $2.28B, they thought they were going to get $2.8B and it never materialized.   Only 5.9X value to revenue was paid.  Rockets got 7.4, Clippers 13.7, the Bills got roughly the same at 5.6X.  That was a huge wake up call for the league along with all the other items in play, including CBS and others with their losses in ad revenue DIRECTLY attributed to it. 

But whatever....been doing this a long time.  You seem to want to bring in your beliefs and ignore the dollars and cents to the impact.  To each their own, I'll deal with the hard numbers as will others.

[Jockey]

I hear that it is all Kaep's fault that participation in HS football is down.

They did a study so this is absolutely true.

[Pakuni]

Cheeks then: The NFL isn't colluding against Kaepernick. He's just not good enough to be in the league.
Cheeks now: You're darn right the league colluded, and it was a stroke of genius that they did.

It's odd that he believes this somehow nips anything in the bud. Far as I can tell, it doesn't preclude Kaepernick from trying to play again, and I'd be surprised to learn that it would allow future collusion to prevent him from playing again. Moreover, it pretty much gives absolute freedom to players who wish to protest. This tells them the league can't do anything about it and any effort to try will result in the player receiving a big, fat check.

Anyhow, I'm curious to read this study that shows continued association with Colin Kaepernick would cost the league BILLIONS.
And I'm curious if Nike's real world experience might cast some doubts on the validity of such a study.

[Cheeks]

Got it. A $60 million loss is actually great news because association with Colin Kaepernick would have cost the BILLIONS.
See: Nike.
World class spin zone, Cheeks. Preposterous, but an impressive effort nonetheless.

Nope, you don't get it.

$60M (unconfirmed) payout is peanuts compared to the loss of value on their next TV deal due to falling ratings as a result of the protests, which over years of contract would add up to billions over the course of that time period.  This isn't hard.  Not my numbers, McKinsey, Parks, Morgan Stanley, etc, etc, etc.

[Cheeks]

Cheeks then: The NFL isn't colluding against Kaepernick. He's just not good enough to be in the league.
Cheeks now: You're darn right the league colluded, and it was a stroke of genius that they did.

It's odd that he believes this somehow nips anything in the bud. Far as I can tell, it doesn't preclude Kaepernick from trying to play again, and I'd be surprised to learn that it would allow future collusion to prevent him from playing again. Moreover, it pretty much gives absolute freedom to players who wish to protest. This tells them the league can't do anything about it and any effort to try will result in the player receiving a big, fat check.

Anyhow, I'm curious to read this study that shows continued association with Colin Kaepernick would cost the league BILLIONS.
And I'm curious if Nike's real world experience might cast some doubts on the validity of such a study.

The studies show continued anthem protests and the results by fans dilutes the value equation. If you wish to purchase the studies, by all means please do.  They are available for you to do so.

The fans have said with their remote control and wallets that they don't want those actions at games.....on your own time, fine.  Your first two sentences are wrong.  I said flat out that I believe teams on their own made those choices.  The league can do what they want in terms of settling and you may wish to call it what you may, but in the end this is an easy one for the NFL over the long haul.  The math is not hard.  Even without paying for said studies, you can find plenty of solid analysis on lost value of franchises, TV rights, etc by the actions taken. Ask yourself why 99% of folks got on board this season......$$$. 

[rocket surgeon]

   "It's odd that he believes this somehow nips anything in the bud. Far as I can tell, it doesn't preclude Kaepernick from trying to play again, and I'd be surprised to learn that it would allow future collusion to prevent him from playing again. Moreover, it pretty much gives absolute freedom to players who wish to protest. This tells them the league can't do anything about it and any effort to try will result in the player receiving a big, fat check."

  if you're thinking out loud pakman, this is fine and i respect your opinion.  otherwise, i would expect a little better effort from you.  but because it's cheeks, i guess it's your turn, eyn'a?

      unless something is written into the settlement, i can't imagine anyone preventing kap from playing again except himself.  otherwise, the nfl might as well keep the checkbook open.  also, i seem to recall a few teams open to taking a look at the dude and/or signing him, but i guess he "had a family to feed"

  i don't think you know enough about what's going on "within" the nfl to assume your 2nd statement.  if we are to assume you are correct, then why did the kneeling thing, with the exception of a few, seem to just go away? 

[Cheeks]

   "It's odd that he believes this somehow nips anything in the bud. Far as I can tell, it doesn't preclude Kaepernick from trying to play again, and I'd be surprised to learn that it would allow future collusion to prevent him from playing again. Moreover, it pretty much gives absolute freedom to players who wish to protest. This tells them the league can't do anything about it and any effort to try will result in the player receiving a big, fat check."

  if you're thinking out loud pakman, this is fine and i respect your opinion.  otherwise, i would expect a little better effort from you.  but because it's cheeks, i guess it's your turn, eyn'a?

      unless something is written into the settlement, i can't imagine anyone preventing kap from playing again except himself.  otherwise, the nfl might as well keep the checkbook open.  also, i seem to recall a few teams open to taking a look at the dude and/or signing him, but i guess he "had a family to feed"

  i don't think you know enough about what's going on "within" the nfl to assume your 2nd statement.  if we are to assume you are correct, then why did the kneeling thing, with the exception of a few, seem to just go away?

He's not wrong in that it doesn't preclude him from playing....and maybe he gets a deal and maybe he lights it up.  Now, if he does get a deal and goes down the protest thing again, he'll have some public support from players but behind the scenes a lot of agents and other players upset as they value devaluation starts all over again.  The NFL fans have voted.  This year they started to slowly comeback, the league and NFLPA doesn't want their next deal devalued.  It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

A lot of interesting TV NFL stuff going to happen in next few months that may surprise some folks.

[The Sultan]

Nope, you don't get it.

$60M (unconfirmed) payout is peanuts compared to the loss of value on their next TV deal due to falling ratings as a result of the protests, which over years of contract would add up to billions over the course of that time period.  This isn't hard.  Not my numbers, McKinsey, Parks, Morgan Stanley, etc, etc, etc.

If the NFL was so smart, why did they collude in the first place? 

[rocket surgeon]

He's not wrong in that it doesn't preclude him from playing....and maybe he gets a deal and maybe he lights it up.  Now, if he does get a deal and goes down the protest thing again, he'll have some public support from players but behind the scenes a lot of agents and other players upset as they value devaluation starts all over again.  The NFL fans have voted.  This year they started to slowly comeback, the league and NFLPA doesn't want their next deal devalued.  It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

A lot of interesting TV NFL stuff going to happen in next few months that may surprise some folks.

  if you were agreeing with me-yes, i believe kap could play again if an agreement could be made.  if each side agrees to the value of a contract and kap's ability plays up to or beyond, win-win.  if he starts his "thing" again, there should rightly so be some animosity toward him because he would be potentially getting in the way of others making more money(devaluation).  then they should sue kap and his people. 

btw, is he still hanging with that angela davis-like woman? 

[MU82]

This was a tacit admission that teams in the league colluded. You don't settle, for tens of millions of dollars, if you are going to win the suit.

I should have stuck with what seemed obvious instead of yielding to more nuanced explanations.

And I still hope the Panthers sign Kaepernick, though I doubt they will.

[jutaw22mu]

Exactly. Said it before, say it again ... anyone who thinks Kaepernick is out of the NFL is because he's not good enough for the NFL knows zero about football.

I actually know quite a bit about football.  My arguement is not that he wasn't good enough, because he was, it's that he was not elite.  He was not even a top 20 QB.  He fell in the category that, that if he wanted to keep his job, he shouldn't rock the boat, because he is replaceable.  If he was elite, like Tom Brady or even Andrew Luck elite, he could have pulled it off without repercussion.

He hasn't played now for several years, so he is not as good as he was when he was on an NFL roster.  If he truly wanted to get back on a roster, he would try other channels to get a chance to prove to scouts and nfl GMs that he can help their teams.

He is making more money than he did as a mediocre nfl quarterback.  On top of that, he is getting the nfl money without the brain damage/CTE.  Good for him.  I'm sick of hearing about him like he is some victim.  He is not.  Give it a rest.

[Pakuni]

I actually know quite a bit about football.  My arguement is not that he wasn't good enough, because he was, it's that he was not elite. 

This is very different from what you said previously.
And yeah, he was a top 20 QB.
In seasons in which he was a starter, his QB ratings ranked him: 7th, 8th, 16th, 31 and 17.
So, thee of five seasons in the top half of the league; only one outside the top 20 (when he ended the season on IR due to shoulder and thumb injuries).
And QB rating doesn't even account for the fact he was en elite runner at the position.
A guy who knows quite a bit about football should know this.

I'm sick of hearing about him like he is some victim.  He is not.  Give it a rest.

He literally was a victim of collusion by the NFL. Sorry you don't like to hear that.

[Pakuni]

Nope, you don't get it.

$60M (unconfirmed) payout is peanuts compared to the loss of value on their next TV deal due to falling ratings as a result of the protests, which over years of contract would add up to billions over the course of that time period.  This isn't hard.  Not my numbers, McKinsey, Parks, Morgan Stanley, etc, etc, etc.

Links, please.
I don't have the time or inclination to do it now, but we both know there are many reasons for falling TV ratings in sports (not just the NFL) that have nothing to do with Kaepernick. And we both know the NFL's TV rating loss mirrors - and in most instances is less than - ratings losses for the vast majority of programming overall. You're being disingenuous and you know it.
And to suggest the Panthers sold for an amount that was within the range of expectations - just not the highest estimate - is because a player on another team kneeled is ridiculous.

[jutaw22mu]

This is very different from what you said previously.
And yeah, he was a top 20 QB.
In seasons in which he was a starter, his QB ratings ranked him: 7th, 8th, 16th, 31 and 17.
So, thee of five seasons in the top half of the league; only one outside the top 20 (when he ended the season on IR due to shoulder and thumb injuries).
And QB rating doesn't even account for the fact he was en elite runner at the position.
A guy who knows quite a bit about football should know this.

He literally was a victim of collusion by the NFL. Sorry you don't like to hear that.

Then you didn't read what I said previously.  I said he wasn't great, but he was good enough to be a QB on a bad team.  I said the he would never displace an elite starting QB. 

Also, not a guy.

[WarriorDad]

I was going to start a thread on this but will just add to this one instead. Was going to ask for opinions on amount they received. My over/under was going to be $49.5 million. I would definitely have been betting the over.

Whether it rose to the level of actual collusion, there was penty of evidence - which the NFL obviously realized - to prove that not signing Kaep was not based on football results.

ESPN reported today the amount may never be known or if a financial settlement was even reached per Kevin Seifert.  Both sides risk losing damages, if any were agreed to, if it is revealed.   My belief is the discovery phase would have been ugly for both sides, but worse for the NFL.  Collusion very difficult to prove, time to move on. 

[Pakuni]

Also, not a guy.

Apologies for that.

[jutaw22mu]

Apologies for that.

No worries, can't really tell by the screen name, and given the demographics of most sports message boards, safe assumption.