MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season

[MUBurrow]

I think that from the Padres angle, this deal is a bit of a hedge against the next collective bargaining agreement. If the players "win" those negotiations, this deal looks fine.  A "win" for the players would mean either eliminating the luxury tax or securing a greater proportion of revenues than they currently receive.  In that context, based on current/projected revenues, a $30M contract won't kill you vis-a-vis the rest of the league.  If ownership "wins" in the next round of negotiations, then this might turn into an albatross but if you're ownership you're willing to bite the bullet because it will mean you've firmed up a salary cap situation and probably some revenue sharing as well.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I don't see how the players "win" the next round of negotiations. The owners receive enormous revenues and are wealthy outside of their MLB ownership - not BECAUSE of it.  I think a player's "win" will come with large strings.  Like an earlier path to free agency, but that it will be restricted and/or comes with a harder salary cap or even a cap on the length of contracts.

[DegenerateDish]

I think I've told this story here before, but if not, here goes.

My first job out of MU was working in the Bulls front office selling season tickets. Management didn't allow us to have internet at our desks, and this was pre smart phones. All we had was a database and a phone book. A couple of weeks into the job, it was a Friday late afternoon, and I was going to go up to Milwaukee for the weekend to see MU friends. I called my friends from my office line. I probably talked for 20 minutes that afternoon.

2 weeks later, I got a bill from Reinsdorf's office for (I don't remember the exact amount) $10 that I owed in long distance phone call charges. I had to cut Reinsdorf a check for calling up to Milwaukee from Chicago. Was it perfectly in his right to do so? Sure, I get it. Did it ever sit well with me from an optics standpoint? No.

[Cheeks]

I think I've told this story here before, but if not, here goes.

My first job out of MU was working in the Bulls front office selling season tickets. Management didn't allow us to have internet at our desks, and this was pre smart phones. All we had was a database and a phone book. A couple of weeks into the job, it was a Friday late afternoon, and I was going to go up to Milwaukee for the weekend to see MU friends. I called my friends from my office line. I probably talked for 20 minutes that afternoon.

2 weeks later, I got a bill from Reinsdorf's office for (I don't remember the exact amount) $10 that I owed in long distance phone call charges. I had to cut Reinsdorf a check for calling up to Milwaukee from Chicago. Was it perfectly in his right to do so? Sure, I get it. Did it ever sit well with me from an optics standpoint? No.

I had friends that worked for Art Spanos.  They were doing suite sales.  When they sold out the suites, which meant a job well done....they were laid off.  It happens, unfortunately.

My experience working in pro sports was very good with Angels and Ducks, but there are definitely some tight wads out there.

[dgies9156]

I think that from the Padres angle, this deal is a bit of a hedge against the next collective bargaining agreement. If the players "win" those negotiations, this deal looks fine.  A "win" for the players would mean either eliminating the luxury tax or securing a greater proportion of revenues than they currently receive.  In that context, based on current/projected revenues, a $30M contract won't kill you vis-a-vis the rest of the league.  If ownership "wins" in the next round of negotiations, then this might turn into an albatross but if you're ownership you're willing to bite the bullet because it will mean you've firmed up a salary cap situation and probably some revenue sharing as well.

The Padres have the same problem the Marlins and Rays do. They're in markets that should be able to easily support an MLB team but the team has been mediocre to bad for so long that a huge indifference has settled in. Brining Manny in shook up that indifference and probably should sell tickets. Remains to be seen whether enhanced gate receipts will cover his salary.

Miami builds a brand new stadium off Little Havana (former site of the Orange Bowl) and promptly screws what should be one of the best baseball markets in the United States. The team was so bad last year that they did not even draw a million people. Baseball fans know a AAA team when they see it and Miami draws like a good AAA team.

Ditto for Tampa. May not be as good a market as Miami and it has stadium problems, but consistent excellence would make the Rays a good draw. As it stands, yuck. Kansas City, Minnesota and maybe even Seattle are headed down the same path if the team doesn't get better fast.

Winning isn't everything but wanting to win (and trying to win) is!!!

[Pakuni]

Miami builds a brand new stadium off Little Havana (former site of the Orange Bowl) and promptly screws what should be one of the best baseball markets in the United States. The team was so bad last year that they did not even draw a million people. Baseball fans know a AAA team when they see it and Miami draws like a good AAA team.

It runs a lot deeper in Miami. It's a lousy professional sports town that has never cared about the Marlins.
In 2004, after winning the World Series with a talented young core of exciting players like Josh Beckett, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, they finished 26th in average attendance.
Same in 1998 when, a year after winning a World Series, they finished 22nd.

Perhaps we can forgive Tampa. I know I wouldn't want to regularly go to ball games in that dump of a stadium they have.

[MU82]

From 2008-13, the Rays went to the postseason 4 times in 6 years. Nevertheless, they never even drew 1.9M in any season. They drew only 1.5M in the 92-win 2013 season; that was 15th of 15 AL teams. The ballpark is the pits, but there is little evidence that Tampa-St. Pete actually can support big-league baseball.

And Miami is definitely a horrible MLB town.

[jficke13]

It runs a lot deeper in Miami. It's a lousy professional sports town that has never cared about the Marlins.
In 2004, after winning the World Series with a talented young core of exciting players like Josh Beckett, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, they finished 26th in average attendance.
Same in 1998 when, a year after winning a World Series, they finished 22nd.

Perhaps we can forgive Tampa. I know I wouldn't want to regularly go to ball games in that dump of a stadium they have.

Didn't they fire sale their team the year after each WS win?

[Pakuni]

Didn't they fire sale their team the year after each WS win?

No. The 2004 team brought back most of their key players (Beckett, Willis, Cabrera, Pierre, Pavano, Lowell, Gonzalez, etc.).
They did trade Derek Lee and lost Ivan Rodriguez in free agency.

[Dr. Blackheart]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/dodgers-ace-clayton-kershaw-shut-indefinitely-due-unknown-arm-issue-195623523.html

Kershaw shut down early in Spring Training.  "Dead arm"

[Cheeks]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/dodgers-ace-clayton-kershaw-shut-indefinitely-due-unknown-arm-issue-195623523.html

Kershaw shut down early in Spring Training.  "Dead arm"

He was just named opening day pitcher on Wednesday....I'm guessing that may be in jeopardy. 

[GB Warrior]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/dodgers-ace-clayton-kershaw-shut-indefinitely-due-unknown-arm-issue-195623523.html

Kershaw shut down early in Spring Training.  "Dead arm"

PTSD from Woodruff teeing off on him

[MU82]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/dodgers-ace-clayton-kershaw-shut-indefinitely-due-unknown-arm-issue-195623523.html

Kershaw shut down early in Spring Training.  "Dead arm"

Needs to get some of Phil Mickelson's spare HGH.

[Holy hell all time]

Needs to get some of Phil Mickelson's spare HGH.

Arrieta's is way, way better.

[GB Warrior]

I really REALLY don't need to see Harper in Dodger Blue

[MUBurrow]

I really REALLY don't need to see Harper in Dodger Blue

I'd bet a fair amount of money you don't have to worry about it. Philadelphia is the only team offering a long term deal, and won't budge on negotiating against themselves. So Boras is trying to leverage Harper's preference for the Dodgers, and LAD's willingness to pay higher AAV over a shorter number of years, to get Philadelphia to pay a premium. This ends with Bryce in Philadelphia on a contract for double digit years, but the Phillies are going to have to pony up an extra couple mil per year for Philadelphia not being Los Angeles.

[buckchuckler]

I really REALLY don't need to see Harper in Dodger Blue

I think the idea of him taking a short term deal, whether the Giants or Dodgers are insane.  Why would he pass on a huge payday and assume the risk of a major injury?

I can't imagine him signing for less than Machado, or even less than Stanton.  Boras will do his thing.  10/330 at least. 

[buckchuckler]

Jerry Reinsdorf's birthday today.  Still holding out hope for that 300 million dollar birthday present...

I am pathetic... ugh.

[Jockey]

Bryant has been pretty vocal this spring. He obviously still has a lot of animosity toward the cubs for manipulating his service time as a rookie to keep him under team control for an extra year.

I'll make a prediction now that he will not re-sign with the cubs when he becomes a free agent.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

Bryant has been pretty vocal this spring. He obviously still has a lot of animosity toward the cubs for manipulating his service time as a rookie to keep him under team control for an extra year.

I'll make a prediction now that he will not re-sign with the cubs when he becomes a free agent.

Like Machado, Harper, and pretty much everyone else in the world, Bryant will sign with whomever gives him the most money.

[CTWarrior]

I think the idea of him taking a short term deal, whether the Giants or Dodgers are insane.  Why would he pass on a huge payday and assume the risk of a major injury?

I can't imagine him signing for less than Machado, or even less than Stanton.  Boras will do his thing.  10/330 at least.

Why would anyone give him 10/330?  Averaged 2.5 WAR/year over the last three years.  Take away his 10 WAR season in 2015, he has averaged 2.9 WAR/season in the other 6 years.  That's a solid player, not the biggest contract in history kind of guy.  One caveat, I think the offensive piece of WAR is well considered, but I think the defensive part is suspect at best and his defensive WAR is atrocious of late and a good reason why he's not more of a 4 WAR guy.  At any rate, not sure he is the player people think he is.  It will be interesting to see which direction his career goes from here, because he obviously has talent.  Not sure I'd want to risk a big chunk of my payroll for 10 years on it, though.

[buckchuckler]

Why would anyone give him 10/330?  Averaged 2.5 WAR/year over the last three years.  Take away his 10 WAR season in 2015, he has averaged 2.9 WAR/season in the other 6 years.  That's a solid player, not the biggest contract in history kind of guy.  One caveat, I think the offensive piece of WAR is well considered, but I think the defensive part is suspect at best and his defensive WAR is atrocious of late and a good reason why he's not more of a 4 WAR guy.  At any rate, not sure he is the player people think he is.  It will be interesting to see which direction his career goes from here, because he obviously has talent.  Not sure I'd want to risk a big chunk of my payroll for 10 years on it, though.

Well, there are 6 active players with a higher career OPS.  Trout, Miggy, Votto, Pujols, Goldy, and Stanton.
Even in his down years, he is an offensive force.  If you can have that impact offensively, defense doesn't matter.  Look at Stanton.  Not to mention that he is likely just entering his prime.  He may not get the biggest deal ever, but I'd be shocked.
I'd be comfortable betting his deal will surpass Machado and Stanton.

[DegenerateDish]

Arenado 8/$255 - $260.

Big winner - Bryce Harper.

[Jockey]

Collusion, again?

https://sports.yahoo.com/francisco-liriano-got-seven-minor-210512720.html


We have been loath to throw out the c-word — collusion — when discussing the current labor strife in Major League Baseball. It is a claim that's very hard to prove, even though there are multiple examples of teams colluding against players throughout baseball history.

However, as players have spoken up about their experiences in the free agent market, several have made observations that seem more than coincidental. Earlier this month, Cubs reliever Brad Brach said, "We talked to certain teams and they told us that, 'We have an algorithm and here's where you fall.' ... It's just kind of weird that all offers are the same, they come around the same time. Everybody tells you there's an algorithm." Brach ultimately inked a one-year, $4.35 million contract with the Cubs which includes a 2020 club option.

Two days later, Rockies infielder Mark Reynolds said he went without a contract offer for weeks. One day, while he was out playing golf, he got a call from his agent who said he had four teams offering minor league deals on the same day. Reynolds ended up picking the Rockies.

Add Pirates pitcher Francisco Liriano as a data point. Via Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic, Liriano said about his contract offers, "They all came the same week, seven on them on the same day, and they were all were minor league deals, pretty much the same money." He settled on a deal with the Pirates, which will pay him $1.8 million if he makes the major league roster.

The MLBPA filed three grievances against the owners between 1985-87. Similar to recent years, the free agent market stagnated in that three-year window. Free agents were, by and large, unable to find contracts with new teams. The owners also had an "information bank," sharing information about their contract offers to players with each other. An arbitrator ruled in favor of the players on all three grievances. The owners ultimately had to pay $280 million in damages to the players. Marvin Miller, who was the executive director of the MLBPA, wrote that the owners' behavior was "tantamount to fixing, not just games, but entire pennant races, including all postseason series."

Since then, the MLBPA has alleged collusion — both unofficially and officially — on three other occasions. In 2006, the owners agreed to pay the players $12 million from the luxury tax revenue sharing funds after being accused of colluding in 2002-03. However, ownership made no admission of guilt. In 2007, the MLBPA suggested owners colluded by sharing information about free agents and conspired in order to keep free agent Alex Rodriguez's contract down. In 2008, the MLBPA ultimately decided against filing a grievance against the owners for working with each other in order for Barry Bonds to remain unsigned. In 2007, his final season, Bonds hit .276/.480/.565 (1.045 OPS) with 28 home runs and 66 RBI in 477 plate appearances as a 42-year-old.

That multiple players this month alone have independently said their contract offers have come in bunches and all with similar figures suggests more than a mere coincidence. There is precedent for ownership to work together. Something is fishy.

[Lennys Tap]

Arenado 8/$255 - $260.

Big winner - Bryce Harper.

Arenado signs for basically what the White Sox offered Machado. He's a couple of years older, true - was this a bit of a home town discount?