Prediction: End of Regular season KenPom ranking

[Silkk the Shaka]

Predict KenPom's final rankings prior to conference tournament/NCAA tournament play

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2.)
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10.)
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13.)
14.)
15.)
16.)
17.)
18.)
19.)
20.)
21.)
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24.)
25.)

25-35 (any order):



35-50 (any order):

[Silkk the Shaka]

Predict KenPom's final rankings prior to conference tournament/NCAA tournament play

1.) Duke
2.) Nevada
3.) Kentucky
4.) Kansas
5.) Tennessee
6.) UNC
7.) Oregon
8.) Syracuse
9.) Mississippi St.
10.) Gonzaga
11.) LSU
12.) Indiana
13.) Villanova
14.) Virginia
15.) Auburn
16.) Kansas St.
17.) Marquette
18.) Maryland
19.) Virginia Tech
20.) Michigan St.
21.) Clemson
22.) NC St.
23.) Wisconsin
24.) UCLA
25.) Miami (FL)

25-35 (any order):

San Diego St.
Iowa
Montana
St. John's (would be in line with MU if Heron is eligible)
Alabama
Florida
Texas
Nebraska
Western Kentucky
Arizona St.

36-50 (any order):

Washington
Penn St.
Providence
TCU
Texas Tech
Northwestern
Vanderbilt
Butler
Buffalo
Ohio St.
Loyola (Chi)
Northeastern
Iowa St.
Florida St.
USC

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'll play.

1.) Kansas
2.) Kentucky
3.) Gonzaga
4.) North Carolina
5.) Tennessee
6.) Nevada
7.) Duke
8.) Michigan State
9.) Villanova
10.) Virginia
11.) Auburn
12.) Virginia Tech
13.) Texas
14.) Florida
15.) Kansas State
16.) Marquette
17.) Oregon
18.) Maryland
19.) Western Kentucky
20.) Syracuse
21.) LSU
22.) West Virginia
23.) Michigan
24.) Florida State
25.) Mississippi State

26-35 (any order):
TCU
Indiana
Butler
Arizona State
Houston
Buffalo
Cincinnati
Purdue
Providence
UCLA

36-50 (any order):
BYU
San Diego State
Clemson
Alabama
Texas Tech
Nebraska
Xavier
USC
Miami (FL)
Wisconsin
St. John's (Assuming no Heron)
Washington
NC State
Ohio State
Iowa

I don't actually think these are the best 50 teams, but I was trying to balance conference a bit. I figure the ACC, SEC, and Big 10 will beat up on each other.

Amazingly, without looking at EFR's, I picked 43/50 of the same teams. Instead of Montana, Penn State, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Loyola, Northeastern, and Iowa State I had Xavier, BYU, Purdue, Cincy, Houston, Michigan, and West Virginia.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I'll play.

1.) Kansas
2.) Kentucky
3.) Gonzaga
4.) North Carolina
5.) Tennessee
6.) Nevada
7.) Duke
8.) Michigan State
9.) Villanova
10.) Virginia
11.) Auburn
12.) Virginia Tech
13.) Texas
14.) Florida
15.) Kansas State
16.) Marquette
17.) Oregon
18.) Maryland
19.) Western Kentucky
20.) Syracuse
21.) LSU
22.) West Virginia
23.) Michigan
24.) Florida State
25.) Mississippi State

26-35 (any order):
TCU
Indiana
Butler
Arizona State
Houston
Buffalo
Cincinnati
Purdue
Providence
UCLA

36-50 (any order):
BYU
San Diego State
Clemson
Alabama
Texas Tech
Nebraska
Xavier
USC
Miami (FL)
Wisconsin
St. John's (Assuming no Heron)
Washington
NC State
Ohio State
Iowa

I don't actually think these are the best 50 teams, but I was trying to balance conference a bit. I figure the ACC, SEC, and Big 10 will beat up on each other.

Amazingly, without looking at EFR's, I picked 43/50 of the same teams. Instead of Montana, Penn State, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Loyola, Northeastern, and Iowa State I had Xavier, BYU, Purdue, Cincy, Houston, Michigan, and West Virginia.

Intriguing list! I especially like the lack of Loyola & ND...

My question is doesn't Kenpom's ratings take opponent strength into consideration and are record-agnostic?

Meaning I think the ACC legitimately has 7-8 top 25 teams, SEC a ton too, and I agree they won't all end up there in the polls because their records are too low. For example, Butler was #25 in KenPom at the end of the regular season but didn't even receive votes in the final AP poll of the regular season (19-12 record in the Big East gauntlet).

[fjm]

Great idea, but for me it honestly goes:
1-18)don't care
19) Marquette
20-50) don't care

[Silkk the Shaka]

Great idea, but for me it honestly goes:
1-18)don't care
19) Marquette
20-50) don't care

Ha mostly same, but as Zach de la Rocha famously said, know your enemy

[Silkk the Shaka]

I'll play.

1.) Kansas
2.) Kentucky
3.) Gonzaga
4.) North Carolina
5.) Tennessee
6.) Nevada
7.) Duke
8.) Michigan State
9.) Villanova
10.) Virginia
11.) Auburn
12.) Virginia Tech
13.) Texas
14.) Florida
15.) Kansas State
16.) Marquette
17.) Oregon
18.) Maryland
19.) Western Kentucky
20.) Syracuse
21.) LSU
22.) West Virginia
23.) Michigan
24.) Florida State
25.) Mississippi State

26-35 (any order):
TCU
Indiana
Butler
Arizona State
Houston
Buffalo
Cincinnati
Purdue
Providence
UCLA

36-50 (any order):
BYU
San Diego State
Clemson
Alabama
Texas Tech
Nebraska
Xavier
USC
Miami (FL)
Wisconsin
St. John's (Assuming no Heron)
Washington
NC State
Ohio State
Iowa

I don't actually think these are the best 50 teams, but I was trying to balance conference a bit. I figure the ACC, SEC, and Big 10 will beat up on each other.

Amazingly, without looking at EFR's, I picked 43/50 of the same teams. Instead of Montana, Penn State, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Loyola, Northeastern, and Iowa State I had Xavier, BYU, Purdue, Cincy, Houston, Michigan, and West Virginia.

Looking at the more in-depth, the biggest outliers vs. what I'm thinking are Cincy, WVU, and BYU. Respect your opinion, wondering if I might be missing something with those that I'm not factoring in.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Looking at the more in-depth, the biggest outliers vs. what I'm thinking are Cincy, WVU, and BYU. Respect your opinion, wondering if I might be missing something with those that I'm not factoring in.

West Virginia: Top 15 team last season. Jevon Carter is a big loss but they bring back just about every one else of importance. Not highly ranked by deep recruiting class. Bart Torvik has them as a top 15 team next season.

Cincy: Top 5 team in KenPom last season. Lose a lot but I think the remaining pieces are good enough to be a bubble team. Bumped them a little higher because I think they are still the second best team in the American and will feast on weaker competition. I don't buy all the hype Memphis and UConn are getting for their new coaches. Maybe in a year or two but not this season.

BYU: A bit of a sleeper pick for me. They won 24 games last season and were top 75 in KenPom. They lose Elijah Bryant which is big but return everyone else. They get Nick Emery back from suspension, former top 75 recruit who averaged 16.3 points a game as a freshman and 13.1 points a game as a sophomore. Also get three players back from LDS missions including former top 100 freshman Gavin Baxter. I think Emery makes up for most of what they lost with Bryant and improvement from everyone else + Baxter is enough to make them a bubble team. I also bumped them up a bit because I think they are the second best team in the WCC and should beat up on most of their conference schedule.

[MU82]

Is there anything higher than #1?

If so, that's where I have Marquette.

[Newsdreams]

Is there anything higher than #1?

If so, that's where I have Marquette.

Wouldn't higher than one be worse?

[Dr. Blackheart]

For you wonks, Pomeroy has a new feature in beta called D1-Universe.  It is a nice visualization tool that plots offense and defense of every team in the country on a grid, with the anchor point being AdjEM. You can toggle through the various other metrics.  A few quick observations:

• MU was way, way out there in terms of being an offense-minded team. Not a surprise, but it is stark.
• The majority of Top 20 teams were at an AdjD at 95 or below, pretty much all are 98 or below. Except for a few small conference auto bids, no NCAA team has a worse defensive profile.

Broken record I know, but the visualization tool (is pretty cool) clearly lays out where MU has to be to be Top 20. No more Offensive Anomoly Island.

Worth checking out if you have a subscription.

https://kenpom.com/universe.php

[brewcity77]

1) Virginia
2) Kentucky
3) Kansas
4) Gonzaga
5) North Carolina
6) Tennessee
7) West Virginia
8) Duke
9) Michigan State
10) Auburn
11) Nevada
12) Marquette
13) Virginia Tech
14) Oregon
15) Indiana
16) Kansas State
17) Butler
18) Villanova
19) Mississippi State
20) Florida
21) Syracuse
22) TCU
23) Iowa State
24) Michigan
25) San Diego State

26-35

Providence
Maryland
Buffalo
Western Kentucky
Texas
UCF
Purdue
Clemson
St. Louis
Missouri

36-50

Miami (FL)
Houston
Cincinnati
Northwestern
Ohio State
Florida State
Arizona State
Xavier
Alabama
Texas Tech
LSU
Harvard
Loyola-Chicago
Montana
South Dakota State

[brewcity77]

I'm curious why people think St. John's is top-50 without Heron. With him, I get it, but LoVett, Owens, Ahmed, and others gone, I just don't see how they've added enough to be at that level. Dixon, Figueroa, and Keita seem like a poor man's version of those aforementioned three.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'm curious why people think St. John's is top-50 without Heron. With him, I get it, but LoVett, Owens, Ahmed, and others gone, I just don't see how they've added enough to be at that level. Dixon, Figueroa, and Keita seem like a poor man's version of those aforementioned three.

St. John's was top 75 last season. They really didn't have LoVett last season so they just have to replace Owens and Ahmed. Keita is a poor man's version of Owens but I wouldn't sleep on Dixon and Figueroa. I think they pretty much makeup for Ahmed. Throw in improvement from everyone else and I think that's enough to get them just inside the top 50.

The biggest questions with them is their size and their chemistry. They've been lockdown interior defenders but with just Keita and Roberts standing above 6'7" I'm not sure what their new strategy will be. Chemistry, we'll see how Mulllin gets them to play together.