Prediction: 2018/19 eFG%

[Silkk the Shaka]

Since we all know eFG% reigns supreme, predict where you think we'll finish in offensive & defensive eFG% this year

Here's mine:

Offensive eFG%: 58.4% (up from 56.8% last year; would be ~top 5 ranking; would be highest for #mubb in the KenPom era)

Defensive eFG%: 49.0% (down from 53.8% last year; would  be ranked ~75th vs. 292 last year; )

*a +9.4% differential would also be the highest for #mubb in the KenPom era (next highest is the 2003 team at +6.3%)

I get to the Offensive eFG% number with a breakdown of:

42.2 3P% / 47.5 3PA%
54.0 2P% / 52.5 2PA%

Last year Markus, Rowsey, and Hauser took ~7 of every 8 3P attempts at a combined 42.9% clip. Rowsey attempted a whopping 8.6 threes/game, and the team's 3PA% was 44.4%.

This year, I think M2N & Sam will take 52% of the team's threes at a combined 45% rate. Rowsey's attempts will be spread fairly evenly between Cain, Elliott, Hauser, Bailey, Chartouny, and Anim, and they'll convert the other 48% at a combined 39.3%. Overall, the team will hit 42.2% of its threes at an increased proportion of 47.5% of all field goal attempts.

With the addition of Morrow & Joey + another year of development for Theo, along with a more diverse 3 point attack opening up the paint and a drive & dish PG at the helm, I think we'll hit 54% of our 2PA, which would be the highest for #mubb in the KenPom era.

Long story short, this team is gonna get buckets.

I get to the 49% Defensive eFG% with a much lazier methodology of averaging Wojo's first 2 years pre-Rowsey/Howard combo. Seems reasonable, but I also think there's significant upside from there with his longest, strongest, deepest, most talented team by far.



In conclusion, I think wee are in for a helluva ride this year. We are going to be both highly effective and very fun to watch.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Your defensive eFG% would have placed MU slightly below only Nova (48.5%) last year among BE teams (who was the only BE team south of 50%). In conference games, no BE team was sub 50%.

not.gonna.happen

Losing Andrew offensively is underestimated as he also created space and opportunities for others. But, I do think we will score more and give up less in the paint.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Your defensive eFG% would have placed MU slightly below only Nova (48.5%) last year among BE teams (who was the only BE team south of 50%). In conference games, no BE team was sub 50%.

not.gonna.happen

Losing Andrew offensively is underestimated as he also created space and opportunities for others. But, I do think we will score more and give up less in the paint.

Nova didn't have an off the charts defensive eFG% last year in terms of college hoops as a whole though. And Wojo has had teams with less to work with than this squad that posted 49% rates already.

It's just my guess though! Where do you think we'll shake out?

[MuMark]

When does the season start? Love this kind of action.......

https://twitter.com/marquettembb/status/1037804212489478144?s=21

[Lennys Tap]

Since we all know eFG% reigns supreme, predict where you think we'll finish in offensive & defensive eFG% this year

Here's mine:

Offensive eFG%: 58.4% (up from 56.8% last year; would be ~top 5 ranking; would be highest for #mubb in the KenPom era)

Defensive eFG%: 49.0% (down from 53.8% last year; would  be ranked ~75th vs. 292 last year; )

*a +9.4% differential would also be the highest for #mubb in the KenPom era (next highest is the 2003 team at +6.3%)

I get to the Offensive eFG% number with a breakdown of:

42.2 3P% / 47.5 3PA%
54.0 2P% / 52.5 2PA%

Last year Markus, Rowsey, and Hauser took ~7 of every 8 3P attempts at a combined 42.9% clip. Rowsey attempted a whopping 8.6 threes/game, and the team's 3PA% was 44.4%.

This year, I think M2N & Sam will take 52% of the team's threes at a combined 45% rate. Rowsey's attempts will be spread fairly evenly between Cain, Elliott, Hauser, Bailey, Chartouny, and Anim, and they'll convert the other 48% at a combined 39.3%. Overall, the team will hit 42.2% of its threes at an increased proportion of 47.5% of all field goal attempts.

With the addition of Morrow & Joey + another year of development for Theo, along with a more diverse 3 point attack opening up the paint and a drive & dish PG at the helm, I think we'll hit 54% of our 2PA, which would be the highest for #mubb in the KenPom era.

Long story short, this team is gonna get buckets.

I get to the 49% Defensive eFG% with a much lazier methodology of averaging Wojo's first 2 years pre-Rowsey/Howard combo. Seems reasonable, but I also think there's significant upside from there with his longest, strongest, deepest, most talented team by far.



In conclusion, I think wee are in for a helluva ride this year. We are going to be both highly effective and very fun to watch.

Hope you're right. If so, seashells and balloons. See you at the Final Four!

[Dr. Blackheart]

Nova didn't have an off the charts defensive eFG% last year in terms of college hoops as a whole though. And Wojo has had teams with less to work with than this squad that posted 49% rates already.

It's just my guess though! Where do you think we'll shake out?

Already detailed my thoughts in different threads on how the game has changed over time and how the Big East adapted even faster (more possessions and more points per possession).  The game has fundamentally changed.

But in your comparison to the Derrick Wilson PF in the back of the zone era, MU's tempo was much slower than last year's team.  That team held opponents to 35.9% trey shooting versus 36.0% last year--no difference. However, our opponents 2PT% was 49.2% versus a whopping 53.8% last season (304 in the country).  At the rim, our opponents shot about 62% (Essentially lay up practice. MSU was best at 43% rim protection, btw).

If MU reasonably defended the paint, I could envision 51.7% on the good side, all coming from two point defense. I think we have good reason to think MU will improve as posters laid out in that thread.

[Dr. Blackheart]

When does the season start? Love this kind of action.......

https://twitter.com/marquettembb/status/1037804212489478144?s=21

I see Coach Nelson directing that set. I am quite happy for MU that he did not get a head coaching job. I think he is an offensive guru in both strategy and technique.

[Cooby Snacks]

Overall career eFG% for all the scholarship guys with previous college experience is 55.7%. I'm going with that as my floor, and maybe they can push closer to 57%. As mentioned previously, losing the threat of Rowsey could hurt, but MU adds a true point with Chartouny, and potentially two more solid outside shooters in J. Hauser and Bailey. Will be interesting to see how the offense recalibrates, but I'm very optimistic.

On the defensive side, I think 51% would be a reasonable expectation. The Howard on/Rowsey off lineups last year gave up something like 43% eFG overall/50% in conference games. Markus is not really a plus defender, but it's a lot easier to hide one guy on that side of the ball than two. PnR defense also has to get a lot better. Maybe there's more rim protection with Morrow now, but I imagine the better way to limit points in the paint is to stop the ball from getting there in the first place. Hopefully Chartouny and more minutes for Sacar and Greg can help in this department.