[Cracked Sidewalks] UW-Madison Preview

[brewcity77]

Link: http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/09/uw-madison-preview.html

-----
---------
-----

UW-Madison Badgers
December 8, fiserv.forum

Coach: Greg Gard (57-36 at UW-Madison)
3-Year RPI Average: 61.7
3-Year kenpom Average: 43.0
2018-19 T-Rank Projection: 22
Projected Starters: PG D'Mitrik Trice (6'0" Jr), SG Brad Davison (6'3" So), SF Brevin Pritzl (6'3" Jr), PF Khalil Iverson (6'5" Sr), C Ethan Happ (6'10" Sr)

Pundits are believing in this UW-Madison team that returns nearly everyone. Trice & Kobe King return from injury, transfer Trevor Anderson will be eligible, & sophomores Nate Reuvers & Aleem Ford earned valuable experience last year. That said, this team did have a losing record when Trice & King were injured & finished with a losing record at the end of the year. While Gard has a likely preseason All-American in Happ & a wealth of options, no one else has yet proven they can be the Robin to Happ's Batman on a winning team.

Stylistically, little has changed for this team since Bo Ryan retired. Play the game at a painfully slow pace & stick rigidly to man-to-man defense. The Badgers averaged 20.6 seconds per offensive possession last year; only Virginia spent more time on the ball on offense. Offensively, they had their second worst team of the advanced stats era, largely because they didn't have many reliable shooters; only Aleem Ford shot over 36% from deep. They also had their worst defensive team in Pomeroy's rankings because they couldn't stop anyone inside. Last year's Badgers were the first UW-Madison team since 2002 to allow over 50% on 2PFGs.

While many expect this team to bounce right back to being the reliable tournament team they were to start the century, I'm not convinced. The Big 10 will be better this year, with both Michigan State looking like a top-tier team & a plethora of other teams that feel they can legitimately contend for a tournament berth. Even when UW-Madison was healthy last year, they weren't good & benefited heavily from a soft conference schedule that saw them go 5-5 against sub-50 kenpom teams but only 2-6 against top-50 teams.

The idea that a year of experience will take a team from not sniffing the NIT to top-25 & safely in the NCAA Tournament seems like a stretch. As mentioned in the Indiana preview, after Michigan State there are 11 Big 10 teams projected from 20-52 in T-Rank. The league will likely beat up on itself & shouldn't expect more than 7 bids, which leaves most likely 5 of those teams in the top-52 on the outside of the NCAA field looking in. Expect UW-Madison to be fighting a battle to the bubble all year long. It's a coin flip if they get in & not nearly the guarantee most experts seem to think it is.

Marquette Connection: UW-Madison is Marquette's most common opponent, & with rare exception the teams have played every season since the late 1920s. The most notable exception was a period from 1954-1957 when they didn't meet at all. Before then, UW-Madison had handily controlled the series, leading 36-18. The reason for the break in the series was because after one week of school in 1951, UW-Madison freshmen Rube Schulz & Doug Gill left campus, drove to Milwaukee, & flipped their commitments by transferring to Marquette. UW-Madison coach Bud Foster was so upset that he took Marquette off the schedule. The transfers paid off big for Marquette. In 1952, Marquette won the National Catholic Tournament. 3 years later, Schulz helped lead MU to their first ever NCAA Tournament, knocking off Miami (OH) & Kentucky en route to the Elite 8. Since the series was renewed in 1958, Marquette holds a 40-31 advantage.

[Herman Cain]

Davison is the kind of kid who could make the game very interesting the way JP Macura did for Xavier. I think our depth and firepower will lead us to victory over the Badgers.

One big benefit recruiting wise from this game is that it vividly demonstrates to the in state recruits how we are an uptempo scoring type team versus the slow poke Badgers. Given the recent strength in youth basketball in Wisconsin this could be a big advantage for us over several recruiting cycles.

[Dr. Blackheart]

The Badgers return a not very good bunch from last year. The B1G was also very down with injuries throughout and should be improved versus the Badgers.

What's better is they have more experience and health.  I think King was undervalued before his injury and is better than the Flopper. Happ's usage rate was simply way too high last year--they need more balance if they are to make a step up. I also think Anderson is a better choice at PG than Tryce.  Gard will have some tough line-up decisions again away from the Wisconsin model.

Lots of depth but a drop off in talent under Gard. He has shown that he can coach a team up, but the front burner may be turned up if they take another step back.

That said, this game is always competitive.

[Its DJOver]

The Badgers return a not very good bunch from last year. The B1G was also very down with injuries throughout and should be improved versus the Badgers.

What's better is they have more experience and health.  I think King was undervalued before his injury and is better than the Flopper. Happ's usage rate was simply way too high last year--they need more balance if they are to make a step up. I also think Anderson is a better choice at PG than Tryce.  Gard will have some tough line-up decisions again away from the Wisconsin model.

Lots of depth but a drop off in talent under Gard. He has shown that he can coach a team up, but the front burner may be turned up if they take another step back.

That said, this game is always competitive.

Curious why you think this.  He put up decent numbers at UWGB, but nothing eye-popping.  I would also imagine that he got quite a bit of exposure in high school, just by the amount of coaches that were there to see Sam and Joey, and he had no high major offers.  I think he'll be better than most walk-ons in the country, but he doesn't scream high major to me.

[cheebs09]

That said, this game is always competitive.

Not last year.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Curious why you think this.  He put up decent numbers at UWGB, but nothing eye-popping.  I would also imagine that he got quite a bit of exposure in high school, just by the amount of coaches that were there to see Sam and Joey, and he had no high major offers.  I think he'll be better than most walk-ons in the country, but he doesn't scream high major to me.

It's more about Trice. Anderson's offensive numbers are better. Neither scream high major.

[Its DJOver]

It's more about Trice. Anderson's offensive numbers are better. Neither scream high major.

I can get on board with that.  I always thought that if Trice was truly a high major player MSU would have been all over it with the brother connection.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Not last year.

Well, it was a six point game with four minutes gone in the 2nd half.  But, MU's fast start to the game sure felt nice

Wojo has done well in Madison, which irks the Badger Den to no end. Last year's game may have been Matt's best game.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Well, it was a six point game with four minutes gone in the 2nd half.  But, MU's fast start to the game sure felt nice

Wojo has done well in Madison, which irks the Badger Den to no end. Last year's game may have been Matt's best game.

What a weird game that was in hind sight. We never really went on a run. We never strung together more than 6 unanswered points and we only did that once. The Badgers actually owned the largest run, 7-0 to end the 1st half and start the 2nd half. I remember looking up at one point and saying "crap, how are we up by 18?"  There was a lot of, you score 2 points, we'll score 5, then you score again.

[Dr. Blackheart]

What a weird game that was in hind sight. We never really went on a run. We never strung together more than 6 unanswered points and we only did that once. The Badgers actually owned the largest run, 7-0 to end the 1st half and start the 2nd half. I remember looking up at one point and saying "crap, how are we up by 18?"  There was a lot of, you score 2 points, we'll score 5, then you score again.

It sure was. Unbelievably, the Flopper was awarded 16 free throws in that game. A free throw rate of 200. Stunning.

[Silkk the Shaka]

What a weird game that was in hind sight. We never really went on a run. We never strung together more than 6 unanswered points and we only did that once. The Badgers actually owned the largest run, 7-0 to end the 1st half and start the 2nd half. I remember looking up at one point and saying "crap, how are we up by 18?"  There was a lot of, you score 2 points, we'll score 5, then you score again.

That was one of the most satisfying wins I've seen in a while. Looking forward to another beatdown at the FiFo this year

[MomofMUltiples]

It sure was. Unbelievably, the Flopper was awarded 16 free throws in that game. A free throw rate of 200. Stunning.

The B1G refs caught on to his game later in the season and called him for fouls so frequently that Gard had to tell him to cut it out.  Let's hope the referee community is familiar with him by now.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It sure was. Unbelievably, the Flopper was awarded 16 free throws in that game. A free throw rate of 200. Stunning.

He made more FTs (11) than Marquette shot (10). Yet if you asked Badger fans, they would still tell you that the refs jobbed them.