Impact of the Rules Changes: 2013 vs. 2018

[Dr. Blackheart]

As we have been discussing in the KPom threads, I discovered some interesting changes in statistics pre-rule changes vs. last season that I thought would be worth a new thread. This time period (2013 vs. 2018) is also of interest as it is old versus new Big East.

Efficiency for all schools increased from 102.5 to 105.0.  BE games increased from 100.0 to 108.8. That is a lot more scoring per possession.

Tempo increased nationally from 64.5 to 68.3.  BE possessions went from 63.5 to 71.2.  So, more scoring per possession and more possessions (8 more in BE). Nationally, possession length was down slightly from 18.1 seconds to 17.4.

eFG% jumped from 48.6% to 51.0% nationwide. The jump was even bigger in the BE, going from 47.1% to 53.0%.

In tune with this, trey shooting % went from 33.9% to 35.1%.  The BE went from 32.3% to 36.2%.  The national 3PA/FGA Rate also jumped with these makes to 37.5% of all shots from 33.0%, while BE teams moved to 38.2% from 31.8%. Wojo, McBuckets impact?

TO%, OR% (less misses) and FTR (foul focus areas) also dropped. The game has fundamentally changed for the better. The new BE is also a much more exciting and (statistically at the very least) better league.

Bo Ball is dead!

[brewcity77]

The change from 35 to 30 seconds on the shot clock was always going to increase the speed, but it's nice to see the efficiency has also increased.

[Dr. Blackheart]

The change from 35 to 30 seconds on the shot clock was always going to increase the speed, but it's nice to see the efficiency has also increased.

The speed didn't really happen on possession length to the degree I would have thought, though.  The foul emphasis (hand check, flagrant, paint emphasis and expanded semi circle) and reduced number of time outs did more it looks like.  Less over-coaching? Less clutching? Less diving?

[bilsu]

Does the increase in efficiency basically reflect the increased accuracy in three point shooting?
Does the shorter clock increase the emphasis on taking three point shots?

[Dr. Blackheart]

Does the increase in efficiency basically reflect the increased accuracy in three point shooting?
Does the shorter clock increase the emphasis on taking three point shots?

Taken and made threes clearly is the largest contributor.  I would have thought the shot clock would have seen more threes in transition but possession length didn't change as much.  I think coaches are stressing this more with sets as it is generally a statistically better shot. And, with less time outs to save a possession, teams are coached to shoot the three at the end of the possession (think Rowsey with the Thing).

I don't have data on offensive fouls called with the expanded semi circle and point of emphases on the paint and picks, but I am guessing these are driving possessions up more than anything.

Those are my theories.

[Jay Bee]

OR% (less misses)

wat

[Dr. Blackheart]

wat

Oops.  Didn't complete my thought. Less misses, so teams aren't crashing the boards as much to get back on defense.  Especially with more threes and a chance for longer rebounds. For example, 2013 MU team had a OR% of 38.3% versus 28.8% in 2018.

This seems to be a Wojo philosophy over his four years and appears to be more prevelant across the country.

What's are your theories? It seems odd that OR% would go down with the rule changes/focus. It has to be a style of play thing.

[Jay Bee]

Oops.  Didn't complete my thought. Less misses, so teams aren't crashing the boards as much to get back on defense.  Especially with more threes and a chance for longer rebounds. For example, 2013 MU team had a OR% of 38.3% versus 28.8% in 2018.

This seems to be a Wojo philosophy over his four years and appears to be more prevelant across the country.

What's are your theories? It seems odd that OR% would go down with the rule changes/focus. It has to be a style of play thing.

Mostly style

https://kenpom.com/blog/offensive-rebounding-data-dump/

[muwarrior69]

As we have been discussing in the KPom threads, I discovered some interesting changes in statistics pre-rule changes vs. last season that I thought would be worth a new thread. This time period (2013 vs. 2018) is also of interest as it is old versus new Big East.

Efficiency for all schools increased from 102.5 to 105.0.  BE games increased from 100.0 to 108.8. That is a lot more scoring per possession.

Tempo increased nationally from 64.5 to 68.3.  BE possessions went from 63.5 to 71.2.  So, more scoring per possession and more possessions (8 more in BE). Nationally, possession length was down slightly from 18.1 seconds to 17.4.

eFG% jumped from 48.6% to 51.0% nationwide. The jump was even bigger in the BE, going from 47.1% to 53.0%.

In tune with this, trey shooting % went from 33.9% to 35.1%.  The BE went from 32.3% to 36.2%.  The national 3PA/FGA Rate also jumped with these makes to 37.5% of all shots from 33.0%, while BE teams moved to 38.2% from 31.8%. Wojo, McBuckets impact?

TO%, OR% (less misses) and FTR (foul focus areas) also dropped. The game has fundamentally changed for the better. The new BE is also a much more exciting and (statistically at the very least) better league.

Bo Ball is dead!

....because our defense sucked.