Championship game predictions

[Billy Hoyle]

Michigan gave up 63 points per game on the season and held opponents to under 33 percent from three.  They have only given up 70 points tree times since the end of January, one of those in OT and one in a blowout win. They aren't suddenly giving up 90.  Plus, they control the ball (outside of the A&M game they have only averaged 63 ppg in the tourney) and don't turn the ball over. They will run time off the shot clock which will limit Nova's possessions.


On the flip side, Nova's defense limited teams to 32% from three and we saw a strong perimeter defense in Florida State hold Michigan to 4 for 24 from three. 

71-62, Nova.

[Silkk the Shaka]

To me it was like most of their wins against us or against top-25 kenpom teams. They did the same thing to Kansas they did to Tennessee, West Virginia, Gonzaga, Xavier (twice), and Butler at MSG. One dominant run in the game and solid play most of the rest of the time. I feel like throughout the season, Villanova's winning formula has been pretty consistent.

Yep, I've never seen a knockout punch like they have.

You either hang around for a while and they put a 10-15 point run on you in a 3 minute span and you're like WTF there's no time to come back from this and you play desperate the rest of the way while they play solid, or they blitz you immediately then play solid the rest of they way while you press the issue/take bad shots the rest of the way and every time you make a small run they answer with a small run.

Michigan was down by double digits against Loyola with ~10 to play, and they needed an absurd buzzer beater to take out Houston. Their run ends not with a bang, but with a whimper tonight. Villanova is out for blood.

[HutchwasClutch]

I think Nova is better team, but Michigan is very good, very confident, and very well coached.  Nova's shooting will come back to earth tonight I think, meaning a close game.  Very hard to maintain that level of shooting two games in row in the Final Four.  I just don't see Nova repeating that performance.  Beilein's 1-3-1 is something Nova is not used to seeing either.

Nova- 82
Michigan- 78

[PGsHeroes32]

I was thinking about this yesterday, I want Nova to be considered a real rival to MU and I hope they get smoked. I know many on here like cheering/supporting another conference team, but I personally want to raise the bar in my thinking. If ND was in BE and playing for NC, I believe few would be pulling for them. To me, that what a rivalry is all about.

So--I am going Michigan by 10+ points. I think they have a hot hand, a great, great coach and are the better team at the moment.

In what world is Michigan the better team at the moment??

[Eldon]

I'm rooting hard for Nova. 

Nova 81, Michigan 74

Michigan trails all game, but makes a late run.

Let's go Nova!!  \\\///

[MU82]

According to the email I just got from Bovada, Nova is at -7 and it is the biggest spread for a title game since Duke was favored by same over Butler in 2010. We know how that one turned out: Duke won; Butler covered and got within about an inch of winning.

FYI, Georgetown was only an 8-point fave over Nova back in '85.

Kentucky was a 14-point fave over Cuse in 1996; won by 9. Duke was 9.5 fave over UConn in 1999; won by 3.

All info from this site: https://www.boydsbets.com/final-four-betting-history/

It's hard to cover a big spread! (I realize that every time I pull a shirt on over my gut.)

[GGGG]

According to the email I just got from Bovada, Nova is at -7 and it is the biggest spread for a title game since Duke was favored by same over Butler in 2010. We know how that one turned out: Duke won; Butler covered and got within about an inch of winning.

FYI, Georgetown was only an 8-point fave over Nova back in '85.

Kentucky was a 14-point fave over Cuse in 1996; won by 9. Duke was 9.5 fave over UConn in 1999; won by 3.

UConn won that game.

[MU82]

UConn won that game.

Yes, of course. D'oh!

[Spotcheck Billy]

UConn won that game.

Yes, of course. D'oh!

82 was thinking about another Lennon song, Imagine.

[Goose]

MU82

I admit being wrong in saying Michigan is the better team at the moment. I wanted to say the hotter team, but both are playing well. I believe Michigan is going to win because I think their D can cause Nova some trouble and I think Wagner will cause a lot of trouble.

[VegasWarrior77]

Since seeding began in 1985, 11 Big Ten teams have played for a national championship going 1-10 ATS

[Newsdreams]

Nova.  MU needs the win $hare$

$hare$ are done. No $hare$ for championship game.

[warriorchick]

Wagner will give Nova troubles.

This comes to mind whenever I see Wagner interviewed:



That being said, Nova will win after an inspirational montage of their preparation for the game.

[Dr. Blackheart]

$hare$ are done. No $hare$ for championship game.

Wow.  I never knew that.  I always thought the champ got cash.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

MU will take the money.   (tourney shares)     I disagree with this line of reasoning.    5 years ago, the fear was that the Big East was going to be a mid-major.   10 like-minded basketball schools banded together with the intention of being the best basketball-only conference in the country.   MU's record has not been what any of us truly want over the last 5 years.   But our basketball-only brethren's success is a proxy success for MU.   It is a proof of concept.     My opinion of other Big East schools will always be tempered by my appreciation of them coming together in the face of football.   Sure, I am learning to dislike other fanbases and other coaches.    But that dislike ends at tourney time, as (A) we all need the money, and (B) we need to stick it to the big football dominated state schools.       Go, Nova.

This is where I'm at.  I always cheer for the Big East family outside of the family.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

I will also say that Michigan can win this game, as tgey say thats why tge play tge game.  But i agree i think 9 out if 10 Nova wins.  They pkayed really really good defense against Kansas.  Michigans offense in the games i have watched is pretty pedestrian and not alit of dynamic scorers.  Wagner as a stretch 5, will have his hands full on both ends as Paschall and Spellman are also equally comfortable away from the rim as at it.  Booth, Dante, Brunson, Bridges it just doesnt stop.  Nova will score 70-75 on an off night.  Will michigan score 75 on a good night?
Nova 9 out of 10 times. 
Point spreads are tough in these types of games because of late game fouling.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

MU82

I admit being wrong in saying Michigan is the better team at the moment. I wanted to say the hotter team, but both are playing well. I believe Michigan is going to win because I think their D can cause Nova some trouble and I think Wagner will cause a lot of trouble.

Umm how are they hotter?

[NickelDimer]

as tgey say thats why tge play tge game. 

Nailed it

[peterpan]

91-64 nova

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

Nova 79
Mich 75

[VegasWarrior77]

At the start of March Madness Dereck Stevens, owner of The D & Golden Gate Casinos in DT Las Vegas bet $25K on Michigan at 40-1 to win the national championship (picture of ticket attached).

A bettor at William Hill Sports Book bet $500K on Michigan +290 the money line Monday that would win him $1.45 million should the Wolverines win.

[jsglow]

At the start of March Madness Dereck Stevens, owner of The D & Golden Gate Casinos in DT Las Vegas bet $25K on Michigan at 40-1 to win the national championship (picture of ticket attached).

A bettor at William Hill Sports Book bet $500K on Michigan +290 the money line Monday that would win him $1.45 million should the Wolverines win.

He might have even gotten a few beer coupons.

[WarriorDad]

Nova 68, Michigan 66

[WarriorHal]

Nova is mostly juniors, with no seniors of consequence.

Win or lose tonight, how many of their guys decide to leave early?

[VegasWarrior77]

He might have even gotten a few beer coupons.

And maybe a couple buffets too!