Author Topic: 2018 NCAA Tournament thread (Read 52244 times)

VegasWarrior77 · « **Reply #125 on:** March 16, 2018, 10:45:55 AM »

Bryant "Big Country" Reeves.

jesmu84 · « **Reply #126 on:** March 16, 2018, 11:02:15 AM »

Quote from: fjm on March 16, 2018, 10:11:19 AM

One thing to definitely note. They are showing these teams starting lineups. I am seeing a LOT (with exception to Kentucky and Duke) of senior, senior, junior, frosh/soph, Junior/senior type lineups.

Experience wins? Who would have thunk it?

tower912 · « **Reply #127 on:** March 16, 2018, 11:10:04 AM »

Mid-major coach (X) that is going to be on everyone's wish list became this year's hot coach by taking a few years and crafting a senior class that has taken lumps the previous 3 years but now has 4 experienced seniors and a couple of good underclassmen. And then people are screaming because they cannot duplicate that success.

auburnmarquette · « **Reply #128 on:** March 16, 2018, 11:11:23 AM »

Your observation is correct - I actually systemized different brackets and the teams with experience at Guard (I give 6 points for a senior PG, 4 for a junior and 2 for a sophomore, and then 3 for a senior SG, 2 for a junior SG and 1 for a sophomore SG and 1 bonus points if one of them is a superstar) is the best method this year. It picked 14 of 16 games.

The only better method was my Scheduler who knows nothing about basketball and told me this morning, "I had never heard of that Seton Hall team so I didn't pick them, but at least I got the other games right." I picked up her bracket and realized, in fact, she was 15-1 yesterday. Awesome!

Here is the more detailed note on day 1

After one day, the system that adjusts for the most experienced guards was the best method - picking 14 of 16 games correctly to land in the 99th percentile. The other big winner was the system that adjusted for the hottest teams, which picked 13 of 16 games correctly to land in the 92.7 percentile.

Three other systems were above average with 12 of 16 correct picks, including the system that adjusts www.kenpom.com based on injuries, the system that picks a worse seed if they are only slightly behind, and the system that goes with the team with the best three Value Add players. However, that last system was incredibly damaged with the Arizona loss, as that was the only of the 9 systems that picked Arizona to win more than one or two games total. That loss is actually good for the other 8 methods because most other people had Arizona winning a number of games.

The other four systems finished just below average with 11 of 16 correct picks (the average national bracket was between 11 and 12 wins). Neither the potential NBA talent or the more experienced tournament coaches did that well. Both the composite system and the Mismatch system nearly registered a huge win having picked the 14th seed Stephen F. Austin in what I called my most stupid pick, and SFA led until there were four minutes left in the game.

Today my scheduler says, "I didn't pick that Seton Hall team because I'd never heard of them, but I got the others right." I look at her bracket & realize ... she is in fact 15-1. None of the 9 methods I labor over as a stat expert at http://www.pudnersports.com could match my Director of Scheduling who had not heard of some of the teams. My brackets were all between 11-5 & 14-2. Another person in the Take Back Our Republic office has a 15-1, but he was a legit basketball players so he doesn't get as much credit. Of more concern is that the big Alabama Crimson Tide on 247Sports fan in the office had a big win and Donta Hall looked healthy which does scare me coming into their game against Villanova Basketball.

HelfaerWarrior · « **Reply #129 on:** March 16, 2018, 11:29:11 AM »

Texas A+M be chuckin’ Like George Costanza

First FG at 12:35

tower912 · « **Reply #130 on:** March 16, 2018, 11:30:10 AM »

To be clear, the most reliable predictor on day 1 of the tournament was who had the most experienced guards. Huh.

WarriorDad · « **Reply #131 on:** March 16, 2018, 11:34:07 AM »

Quote from: tower912 on March 16, 2018, 11:30:10 AM

To be clear, the most reliable predictor on day 1 of the tournament was who had the most experienced guards. Huh.

Not that surprising. Feels like if you have good guards, you have a chance. Ball in their hands more than any other positions.

UticaBusBarn · « **Reply #132 on:** March 16, 2018, 11:45:58 AM »

AuburnMarquette, insightful comments as always.

The legendary coach Abe Lemons summarised success in the NCCA tournament
with a far less technical analysis. However, his comment was 100 percent
consistent with yours observations.

Lemons said, "If you ain't got guards, you ain't got sh*t."

Floorslapper · « **Reply #133 on:** March 16, 2018, 11:47:30 AM »

Quote from: tower912 on March 16, 2018, 11:30:10 AM

To be clear, the most reliable predictor on day 1 of the tournament was who had the most experienced guards. Huh.

Hope we land grad transfer. WE lose Rowsey. 5th year player.

PGsHeroes32 · « **Reply #134 on:** March 16, 2018, 12:40:21 PM »

Lindsey is a trainwreck for Providence

HelfaerWarrior · « **Reply #135 on:** March 16, 2018, 12:57:48 PM »

50-50

Go Friars! Me likey Ed Cooley

Marcus92 · « **Reply #136 on:** March 16, 2018, 01:07:02 PM »

Quote from: forgetful on March 15, 2018, 11:16:34 PM

Who would be on your all-time "non-athletic" all tournament team.

Tyler Hansbrough (#1 hands-down in my book)
Steph Curry (stellar shooter and ball handler, not all that much of an athlete)
Luke Harangody (still baffles me how this guy was so good)
Jimmer Fredette (perhaps the poor man's Steve Novak)

PGsHeroes32 · « **Reply #137 on:** March 16, 2018, 01:07:42 PM »

Fu ck Providence

They hate wining in the tourney

tower912 · « **Reply #138 on:** March 16, 2018, 01:12:35 PM »

Quote from: WarriorDad on March 16, 2018, 11:34:07 AM

Not that surprising. Feels like if you have good guards, you have a chance. Ball in their hands more than any other positions.

It's a guards game, eh, Chico's?

GooooMarquette · « **Reply #139 on:** March 16, 2018, 01:13:10 PM »

Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on March 16, 2018, 01:07:42 PM

Fu ck Providence

They hate wining in the tourney

Just jacking up bad shots....

PGsHeroes32 · « **Reply #140 on:** March 16, 2018, 01:13:54 PM »

Quote from: GooooMarquette on March 16, 2018, 01:13:10 PM

Just jacking up bad shots....

Someone needs to tell Diallo he isn’t a jump shooter

And Lindsey is just a really bad player

DegenerateDish · « **Reply #141 on:** March 16, 2018, 01:26:37 PM »

Thought Cooley was going to take more advantage of A&M’s poor ft shooting and put Williams on the line more.

Williams is just a beast.

Otule's Glass Eye · « **Reply #142 on:** March 16, 2018, 01:26:43 PM »

This Texas A&M team isn’t very good. Providence should’ve won this game

nyg · « **Reply #143 on:** March 16, 2018, 01:55:17 PM »

Quote from: Otule's Glass Eye on March 16, 2018, 01:26:43 PM

This Texas A&M team isn’t very good. Providence should’ve won this game

Actually pretty good, would be a tremendous if they had some guard play. The freshman, Starks had like 7 turnovers today.

A&M has a front line of 6 9, 6 10 and 6 10. Hogg was top 30, Davis was top 25 and Williams may be a lottery pick in this years draft. They just clobbered PU on boards today 45-26.

DegenerateDish · « **Reply #144 on:** March 16, 2018, 02:42:35 PM »

My god, the last minute of Marshall/WSU took half an hour to play.

nyg · « **Reply #145 on:** March 16, 2018, 02:47:23 PM »

Good for Marshal, first win ever.

BTW, that kid Penava from Bosnia, was best player on floor. Love madness.

PGsHeroes32 · « **Reply #146 on:** March 16, 2018, 02:48:08 PM »

What a disappointing year for Wichita

Defense just got dramatically worse

MU82 · « **Reply #147 on:** March 16, 2018, 02:50:07 PM »

Quote from: MUDish-Hagans Come On Down on March 16, 2018, 02:42:35 PM

My god, the last minute of Marshall/WSU took half an hour to play.

Totally ruined a good game. And the first one ... they ended up getting the call wrong, IMHO; ball was off the Marshall dude's fingertips.

My big question is this:

Do the losses by Wichita State and Providence hurt our RPI for next season?

Oldgym · « **Reply #148 on:** March 16, 2018, 02:54:53 PM »

Quote from: MU82 on March 16, 2018, 02:50:07 PM

My big question is this:

Do the losses by Wichita State and Providence hurt our RPI for next season?

+1. What will our seed be in the NIT Season Tip-off?

Mr. Sand-Knit · « **Reply #149 on:** March 16, 2018, 02:56:09 PM »

These officials fuggin ruining the games, i had to tyrn the channel. Glad marshall won too bad i coujdnt stand to watch it

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Author Topic: 2018 NCAA Tournament thread (Read 52244 times)