Are Butler AND Providence must win games to make NCAA?

[Jay Bee]

Is there a way to understand how a 25 point win over some direction state school with an RPI of 200 impacts overall RPI and rankings compared to a 12 point loss to 15 point loss to a top 10 RPI team? I assume if you have a model set up you could just swap one of those games out for the other to see what the change in RPI is, right?

No. Margin of victory doesn't impact RPI. In addition, the RPI of your opponent doesn't impact your RPI.

There are plenty of models to estimate the impact... but a good part of it depends on the anticipated win-loss (ex games against you) record of your opponent. So, playing a RPI team of 200 can actually be better for your RPI than playing one with an RPI of, say, 125. Specifics matter greatly.

(Should also note, where you're playing impacts RPI as well... strangely, it doesn't impact your "strength of schedule", but does impact the 25% component of your adjusted win / loss record [1.4 / 1.0 / 0.6]

[Jay Bee]

We're currently counting the @SJ game as a stone cold lock but it's basically a coin flip with probably (53% chance we win). They have been in every game.

Marquette plays Butler tonight. Their most recent game was vs. St. John's. Butler won 70-45, holding the Redmen to 0.68ppp. Butler's lowest win probability of the game was over 80%, and under 2 minutes into the game when the score was 0-0.

#EveryGame

[Dawson Rental]

6-3 or better: Lock
5-4: should be in,  but no guarantee
4-5: Highly unlikely but theoretically possible with a run to the BET Championship
3-6 or worse: Need to win the BET


I'm really not lying or making things up. Everything above is true. Not an opinion,  it's math (assuming the committee doesnt make us the biggest snub in NCAA history).


So no. Winning these two games is not a requirement of making the dance. We could lose both (and two more after that) and still make the dance.

All they being said,  let's just win them both and give ourselves some breathing room

So, you're saying that one win against Creighton will be enough provided we take care of business against St. John's, DePaul and Georgetown.  Makes sense, but winning at least one of these two (or a sweep of Creighton) is needed for to make the NCAA a lock.

[skianth16]

So, you're saying that one win against Creighton will be enough provided we take care of business against St. John's, DePaul and Georgetown.  Makes sense, but winning at least one of these two (or a sweep of Creighton) is needed for to make the NCAA a lock.

What I still have a hard time getting my head around is the fact that these models don't account for changes outside of the MU schedule. I get that building in that kind of complexity would be incredibly difficult, but if we finish the season 6-3 and so do all the other schools within +/- 5 spots of us in the RPI rankings, will we really be improving, or will just stay neutral? Some of that has to depend on who the other teams are playing, but if SoS is not too terribly different than ours, wouldn't we all kind of stay in the same place we are today?

I guess all I'm saying is that even though there are prediction tools and models, given the uncertainties with their calculations, I'm still going to be awfully nervous if we go 5-4, especially if we drop one to SJU or DePaul.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

What I still have a hard time getting my head around is the fact that these models don't account for changes outside of the MU schedule. I get that building in that kind of complexity would be incredibly difficult, but if we finish the season 6-3 and so do all the other schools within +/- 5 spots of us in the RPI rankings, will we really be improving, or will just stay neutral? Some of that has to depend on who the other teams are playing, but if SoS is not too terribly different than ours, wouldn't we all kind of stay in the same place we are today?

I guess all I'm saying is that even though there are prediction tools and models, given the uncertainties with their calculations, I'm still going to be awfully nervous if we go 5-4, especially if we drop one to SJU or DePaul.

The good thing about the BE is there aren't a bunch of RPI killers.  Sure Depaul and Gtown are sub 150 (barely) but most conferences have far bigger drains. We only play 2 games the rest of the year against teams with an RPI above 103.

The predictive models reflect what the others games are projected to do.  Obviously they're not going to nail it, but its going to be right far more than wrong and generally should end up in a similar spot. But you're right, its not perfect. 

[Floorslapper]

Incredible the poll sits at 73-72.  So, we have a dividend country and MU Scoop.  Stop the madness. 

[Windyplayer]

Marquette plays Butler tonight. Their most recent game was vs. St. John's. Butler won 70-45, holding the Redmen to 0.68ppp. Butler's lowest win probability of the game was over 80%, and under 2 minutes into the game when the score was 0-0.

#EveryGame

The end of that SJU-X game tells you everyhting you need to know about the Johnnies. Horrendous execution (and I suspect coaching). A disjointed team that doesn't quite grasp what it takes to win in the BE (literally).

[MUDPT]

Ran the numbers on T-Rank.  Right now we have a 66% chance of making the tournament.  Lose the next two and it goes down to 18%.  I wouldn't say they are must win, but definitely makes it harder.

[BM1090]

Ran the numbers on T-Rank.  Right now we have a 66% chance of making the tournament.  Lose the next two and it goes down to 18%.  I wouldn't say they are must win, but definitely makes it harder.

Ran the numbers where we lose tonight and beat Providence. That gives us a 53.8% chance. Lose to Providence and win tonight and it's 59.7%.

So clearly not both must wins. Could definitely argue that winning 1 of 2 is necessary.

[WayOfTheWarrior]

Brian Regan speaks for me on this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcZOaOG0YOk

[skianth16]

OK, so now we pretty much have a must-win against PC on Saturday. Let's say we win that, and get 4 more wins in the remaining games. Math says we're probably in. But the committee only uses computer numbers for part of their consideration, right? Does a blowout like last night hurt us in the eyes of the committee? I have a hard time thinking it doesn't, but maybe it's too far out from Selection Sunday to matter.

[BM1090]

OK, so now we pretty much have a must-win against PC on Saturday. Let's say we win that, and get 4 more wins in the remaining games. Math says we're probably in. But the committee only uses computer numbers for part of their consideration, right? Does a blowout like last night hurt us in the eyes of the committee? I have a hard time thinking it doesn't, but maybe it's too far out from Selection Sunday to matter.

It might. But I don't think it hurts us any more than the Seton Hall blowout helped us.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

6-2: Lock
5-3: Should be in
4-4: Almost certainly out but theoretically possible with a run in the BET
3-5: Need to win the BET

Last night didn't change the above

[WayOfTheWarrior]

6-2: Lock
5-3: Should be in
4-4: Almost certainly out but theoretically possible with a run in the BET
3-5: Need to win the BET

Last night didn't change the above

Yep. Added pressure to the game on Saturday for sure but I voted No and I'm sticking with it.

[Warrior1969]

Sorry but a loss Saturday is the end of season

[mu03eng]

Sorry but a loss Saturday is the end of season

This is a really bad take Skip Bayless.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Sorry but a loss Saturday is the end of season

Sigh

6-2: Lock
5-3: Should be in
4-4: Almost certainly out but theoretically possible with a run in the BET
3-5: Need to win the BET

I'm really not lying.

[skianth16]

Sigh

6-2: Lock
5-3: Should be in
4-4: Almost certainly out but theoretically possible with a run in the BET
3-5: Need to win the BET

I'm really not lying.

I think the subjectivity of "should" is what has some scoopers, myself included, worried. There are snubs every year, and if our only wins are against the bottom 3-4 teams in the conference in the last half of our schedule, that could easily weigh as a negative for the committee. There's a real possibility that we end up going 3-11 against top 50 RPI teams this year. That's not real inspiring.

I also wonder if there will be a stronger pushback against RPI this year with some teams having good RPI numbers but ugly records. Let's call it the Temple Effect this year. Temple is currently 41 in the RPI rankings on ESPN with a 12-10 record overall and a 4-6 record in the AAC, good enough for 10th out of 12 right now. Every year there are analysts commenting on the flaws of RPI and computer-based rankings, and there are some teams in the top 50 now that sure seem like headscratchers to me.

[mu03eng]

I think the subjectivity of "should" is what has some scoopers, myself included, worried. There are snubs every year, and if our only wins are against the bottom 3-4 teams in the conference in the last half of our schedule, that could easily weigh as a negative for the committee. There's a real possibility that we end up going 3-11 against top 50 RPI teams this year. That's not real inspiring.

I also wonder if there will be a stronger pushback against RPI this year with some teams having good RPI numbers but ugly records. Let's call it the Temple Effect this year. Temple is currently 41 in the RPI rankings on ESPN with a 12-10 record overall and a 4-6 record in the AAC, good enough for 10th out of 12 right now. Every year there are analysts commenting on the flaws of RPI and computer-based rankings, and there are some teams in the top 50 now that sure seem like headscratchers to me.

RPI is already being de-emphasized by the committee this year so that concern is baked into the pie so to speak. Our numbers will be good to decent in RPI, KenPom, etc in the 5-3 scenario....plus it's not a vacuum, other teams would have to earn their way to be more "worthy" than us and there's not a lot of that going on right now.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think the subjectivity of "should" is what has some scoopers, myself included, worried. There are snubs every year, and if our only wins are against the bottom 3-4 teams in the conference in the last half of our schedule, that could easily weigh as a negative for the committee. There's a real possibility that we end up going 3-11 against top 50 RPI teams this year. That's not real inspiring.

I also wonder if there will be a stronger pushback against RPI this year with some teams having good RPI numbers but ugly records. Let's call it the Temple Effect this year. Temple is currently 41 in the RPI rankings on ESPN with a 12-10 record overall and a 4-6 record in the AAC, good enough for 10th out of 12 right now. Every year there are analysts commenting on the flaws of RPI and computer-based rankings, and there are some teams in the top 50 now that sure seem like headscratchers to me.

RPI is flawed.  Everyone knows that.  Temple's RPI is so high despite being 2 games over .500 is because their non-con schedule was a murderous.  Go look at it.  They are still 4 in SOS while playing in a very mediocre league.  The committee has put more focus on the quadrants, kenpom, and other analytic rankings in recent years; but the good news is, MU is in good shape in those metrics as well. 

Look, you and others can keep doubting what the numbers say.  Those that have spent a great deal of time analyzing this stuff over the past several seasons since the field was expanded to 68 have a pretty good pulse on it. It would be an unprecedented snub based on where MU's computer numbers will be for them to get left out at 9-9.  Its really that simple.  The field needs to be filled, and when you compare MU's complete resume at 9-9 to others teams that will be vying for the last 6-8 bids, it becomes much more clear.  You have to remember that the other teams around the bubble will be racking up losses over the next 40 days as well. It is not just what MU does that matters.

Tomorrow is a big game.  No doubt.  A loss would put MU on the ropes, but not all hope would be lost.  A 5-2 or better finish would still have them in the dance.  MU's computer numbers will be better this year at 9-9 than last season at 10-8, and they were at least 6 teams inside the cutline.  IIRC, it was stated that MU was the highest 10 rated seed last season, which would mean they were 10 teams inside the cutline.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think the subjectivity of "should" is what has some scoopers, myself included, worried. There are snubs every year, and if our only wins are against the bottom 3-4 teams in the conference in the last half of our schedule, that could easily weigh as a negative for the committee. There's a real possibility that we end up going 3-11 against top 50 RPI teams this year. That's not real inspiring.

I also wonder if there will be a stronger pushback against RPI this year with some teams having good RPI numbers but ugly records. Let's call it the Temple Effect this year. Temple is currently 41 in the RPI rankings on ESPN with a 12-10 record overall and a 4-6 record in the AAC, good enough for 10th out of 12 right now. Every year there are analysts commenting on the flaws of RPI and computer-based rankings, and there are some teams in the top 50 now that sure seem like headscratchers to me.

The reason why 5-3 is "should be in" and not "lock" is to allow for the possibility of us getting the 7 seed, losing to St. John's/DePaul, and there being a significant number of bracketbusters. If one of those three things don't happen, we will be in with a 5-3 finish.

Look at the resumes of the teams who have played in Dayton since the field expanded to 68. They aren't worldbeaters. A 5-3 finish will give us better resumes than most if not all of them. Us being left out after a 5-3 finish (assuming the three previously mentioned criteria don't all happen) would be a historic snub.