Are Butler AND Providence must win games to make NCAA?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We're currently counting the @SJ game as a stone cold lock but it's basically a coin flip with probably (53% chance we win). They have been in every game.

Also, the @GT game is being counted as a lock but, not like we really blew them out at home either.

I'm just saying, if we lose both of these upcoming games we still have a tough slate of games on the road. If we lose both, then the two games I mentioned above must be absolute locks plus a quality win against Creighton or Seton Hall.

I don't think anyone is counting those games as locks. No game in the Big East is a lock.

Also, the prediction model you are using is useful but flawed. Sagarin's predictor uses data from the entire the season....including when SJU had Marcus LoVett in the lineup. I think that formula gave Marquette a 18% chance of beating Wisconsin the day off.

[muwarrior69]

Short answer, we played a much tougher schedule this season.

To illustrate how much tougher:

In 15-16, our non-conference opponents went a total of 162-240 (.403) against D1 competition

So far this season our non-conference opponents have gone 118-112 (.513) against D1 competition. That number should get better as our cupcakes get to play weaker teams in conference play and some of our better teams (Purdue and Wichita State) are ripping through their conferences. (But the Vadgers may drag us down a bit!)

Not only that but the Big East is stronger too.

In 15-16, our Big East opponents went a total of 86-27 (.761) against non-conference D1 opponents

So far this season (SJU still has to play Duke), our Big East opponents have gone a total of 91-20 (.820) against non-conference D1 opponents

thanks

[MU82]

While i do agree with most of this, @ PC with Dunn and Bentil was most certainly a quality win. Butler and PC at home were solid wins too.

My exact thought.

We also won at Wisconsin that season.

We simply played too soft a non-con schedule that season. Our Brooklyn wins turned out to be nothing special because our opponents went on to have crappy seasons, so aside from Wisconsin, we had no quality NC wins. And we had 2 really bad losses - DePaul and Belmont.

If we beat St. John's twice and also win our remaining games with DePaul and Georgetown, but lose all the others, the closest we'll have to a bad loss is Georgia.

[Newsdreams]

We won 20 in '16 and we were out, but wining 18 this year and we are in. Please explain.

Metrics are no longer amount of games won that is from way back when we were young.

[D'Lo Brown]

I don't think anyone is counting those games as locks. No game in the Big East is a lock.

Also, the prediction model you are using is useful but flawed. Sagarin's predictor uses data from the entire the season....including when SJU had Marcus LoVett in the lineup. I think that formula gave Marquette a 18% chance of beating Wisconsin the day off.

You don't think anyone is counting those games as locks? Lol.

We will see, they are favored to win the upcoming two games and if they lose both, probably have to pull off something incredible (though possible!) to have a reasonable shot. I'd rather see MU win one or both and start working their way completely off the bubble.

[MU82]

You don't think anyone is counting those games as locks? Lol.

We will see, they are favored to win the upcoming two games and if they lose both, probably have to pull off something incredible (though possible!) to have a reasonable shot. I'd rather see MU win one or both and start working their way completely off the bubble.

So ... what you're saying is that you'd prefer victories by your favorite team?

Hmmm ... interesting!

[Herman Cain]

I see us going 7-2 the second half of the conference season. So from that perspective we need to win both of these games.  If we don't then we have to win Creighton and Seton Hall on the Road. 

[MU82]

I see us going 7-2 the second half of the conference season. So from that perspective we need to win both of these games.  If we don't then we have to win Creighton and Seton Hall on the Road.

Got it: They are must-win if the Warriors are to meet some artificial standard of excellence placed upon them by some anonymous interwebs guy.

[Newsdreams]

Got it: They are must-win if the Warriors are to meet some artificial standard of excellence placed upon them by some anonymous interwebs guy.

Just looking for a way to say Wojo didn't meet expectations and Stan should be the coach, even thou Wojo has a better neck.

[mu03eng]

So ... what you're saying is that you'd prefer victories by your favorite team?

Hmmm ... interesting!

Big, if true!

[Its DJOver]

I see us going 7-2 the second half of the conference season. So from that perspective we need to win both of these games.  If we don't then we have to win Creighton and Seton Hall on the Road. 

You forgot to say top three in the Big East and second weekend in the tournament.

[Herman Cain]

You forgot to say top three in the Big East and second weekend in the tournament.

Yes reaffirming that prediction.

[Goose]

Every game going into the stretch is very important. They cannot afford slip ups like they had post 'Nova last year. At some point they need to move from bubble like thought process to being a sure fire NCAA team. Granted this year is still a possible bubble team, but having the sure fire mentality should start now.

Wojo has been a winner his entire career and I hope that mentality transfers offer to this group. If they fail this year, makes the transition to the next level more difficult next year. Winning really is an everyday thing and I hope Wojo & Co show the toughness over the next 4-5 weeks. Truthfully, they are entering the more favorable part of their schedule and there should be no excuses.

[MUBigDance]

So far my BE game predictions in that thread a long time ago have been correct. I'm sure I'll remind y'all if I continue. Having said that I have MU winning these next two and going 7-2 the rest of the way.

But it's not a question of can we make the tournament, if we lose these two. But it goes to the core quality of our program. WE SHOULD BEAT BOTH THESE TEAMS AT HOME. If we can't do that, there are deeper issues than making the tourney.

I want a team where we don't even think about making the tourney...but more what seed are we and can we win the BE or BET. If we can't say that's where we're going, we have big problems. Lose these next two at home and we have big problems.

I fully expect we win both.

[skianth16]

Same reason we won 19 last year and were  pretty comfortably in. Better SOS and computer numbers.

I think I'm getting a better understanding of how the RPI and computer numbers work, but it seems like a misalignment of incentives if a team can lose more games (albeit to better opponents) and have better numbers. I get that there needs to be a balance between getting 26 wins over 26 sub-100 RPI teams and getting 19 wins with a tough schedule, but the reward for losing to good teams seems too high to me. I'm happy it benefits us this year, but I don't think I buy the concept.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

NCAA should really have a strength of wins component, too. RPI somewhat does it but also rewards good losses.

The team sheets give a snap shot of this as well but doesn't boil it down to a single number.

Overall, I like the concept of rewarding teams that play a tough schedule.  Otherwise there is no incentive to challenge yourself, just schedule as many cupcakes as possible.

[skianth16]

NCAA should really have a strength of wins component, too. RPI somewhat does it but also rewards good losses.

The team sheets give a snap shot of this as well but doesn't boil it down to a single number.

Overall, I like the concept of rewarding teams that play a tough schedule.  Otherwise there is no incentive to challenge yourself, just schedule as many cupcakes as possible.

Is there a way to understand how a 25 point win over some direction state school with an RPI of 200 impacts overall RPI and rankings compared to a 12 point loss to 15 point loss to a top 10 RPI team? I assume if you have a model set up you could just swap one of those games out for the other to see what the change in RPI is, right?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think I'm getting a better understanding of how the RPI and computer numbers work, but it seems like a misalignment of incentives if a team can lose more games (albeit to better opponents) and have better numbers. I get that there needs to be a balance between getting 26 wins over 26 sub-100 RPI teams and getting 19 wins with a tough schedule, but the reward for losing to good teams seems too high to me. I'm happy it benefits us this year, but I don't think I buy the concept.

You aren't wrong. That's why there's been so much push back against RPI in recent years. I personally like KenPom because it takes margin of victory into account. Us needing OT to beat EIU should not be treated the same as Belmont beating EIU by 12....but RPI dues just that.

The push back against KP (or any metric that uses margin of victory)  is that it theoretically encourages teams to play weaker schedules. It also encourages teams to run up the score in blowouts. Personally,  running up the score has never bothered me and there are ways to reward teams for playing tough schedules

[mu03eng]

Is there a way to understand how a 25 point win over some direction state school with an RPI of 200 impacts overall RPI and rankings compared to a 12 point loss to 15 point loss to a top 10 RPI team? I assume if you have a model set up you could just swap one of those games out for the other to see what the change in RPI is, right?

RPI doesn't take margin of victory into account, just strength of team you beat/lost to and whether it was home or away. So a 1 point loss at Kentucky is the same as a 25 point lost to Kentucky.

KenPom does, which is why it is going to be used this year in evaluating. It's also why MU's ranking per KenPom went up after a loss to Nova....it accounts for how tough you play opponents.

[Herman Cain]

RPI doesn't take margin of victory into account, just strength of team you beat/lost to and whether it was home or away. So a 1 point loss at Kentucky is the same as a 25 point lost to Kentucky.

KenPom does, which is why it is going to be used this year in evaluating. It's also why MU's ranking per KenPom went up after a loss to Nova....it accounts for how tough you play opponents.

The NCAA made some modifications to the team sheets this year. Some benefit to winning road games.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-committee-to-emphasize-road-results-in-new-bracket-process/

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Is there a way to understand how a 25 point win over some direction state school with an RPI of 200 impacts overall RPI and rankings compared to a 12 point loss to 15 point loss to a top 10 RPI team? I assume if you have a model set up you could just swap one of those games out for the other to see what the change in RPI is, right?

Use RPI Forcast's RPI Wizard.  Just google RPI wizard.  Can trade games out with others and see the result.  Fun tool. 

[skianth16]

Use RPI Forcast's RPI Wizard.  Just google RPI wizard.  Can trade games out with others and see the result.  Fun tool.

I'm not sure if I'm happy I know this exists now, or if I'm upset know this will consume an excessive amount of my free time in the next several weeks. This thing is pretty awesome.

[fjm]

Someone from Twitter found a site that lists all of our wins and what "group"
They fit into since the NCAA is now basing it off of these a bit more.

Props to whoever found it if they are here on Scoop.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/schedule/Marquette

Annoyingly UW Madison (#141) is the 1 win in the 3rd grouping it looks like. If they could move up to #135 it would be a 2nd grouping win.

[brewcity77]

I'm not sure if I'm happy I know this exists now, or if I'm upset know this will consume an excessive amount of my free time in the next several weeks. This thing is pretty awesome.

For what it's worth, I did an experiment on the accuracy of the Wizard. Generally, it's accurate to about +/-10. Admittedly, it was a low sample size. Here's the thread on its accuracy, if you're interested:

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=50140.msg812498;topicseen#msg812498

[MU82]

I'd say these 2 games are less "must wins" than Game 4 of the 2016 World Series was for the Cubbies.