Self-driving Tesla hits fire truck

[Benny B]

Yeah, when someone uses the phrase "autonomous driving" (as you did), they typically have something more in mind than the features we've been seeing for years on higher end cars and more recently on lower end cars (i.e., level 1/2 stuff).  And even more so for the phrase "self-driving" as Tugg used in his post.  I'd venture a guess that very few people would consider the Honda Civic as "autonomous driving" or "self-driving" even if equipped with all the best options available.

If all it takes to qualify as "autonomous" or "self-driving" is to fit into one of the categories on that list, I'm guess my Level 0 1973 VW Bug was much more advanced than I realized.

In common parlance, I think most people referring to "autonomous" or "self-driving" are referring to at least Level 3.

The conversations I've had regarding "autonomous" cars are always in reference to levels 4 or 5, i.e. if you can't sit in the backseat and let the car drive you where you want to go, it isn't autonomous.

[StillAWarrior]

The conversations I've had regarding "autonomous" cars are always in reference to levels 4 or 5, i.e. if you can't sit in the backseat and let the car drive you where you want to go, it isn't autonomous.

Well, you're clearly an ignorant fool who needs to educate himself.  Don't you know that cars with adaptive cruise control and/or park assist are (Level 1) autonomous?!!

[Tugg Speedman]

If you can take your hands off the steering wheel, or the car take control from you in certain instances, isn't that autonomous driving?  Isn't that level 3, which is now being sold as an option in high-end cars?  Even in the 2016 Honda Civic with "Honda Sensing", it will drive around corners without your hands on the wheel.

So, the answer is two years ago.

Detractors will push back by using the most restrictive possible definition ... want to know when widespread adoption of level 5 is going to be a reality.  They know better, technology is about a fast evolution from 1.0 to 2.0 (or in this case from Level 0 to level 3 in production cars in about 10 years). 

So when is level 5 coming? Hard to know as Google and Waymo are only street testing level 4 right now (saw a Google autonomous car on Elston Avenue in Chicago a few months ago ... I know this because it said "Google Autonomous" Car" in large letters on the side.)

So, define what you think is an autonomous car and we can then discuss when it will arrive.  Like I said above, one could argue it was two years ago.

[mu03eng]

If you can take your hands off the steering wheel, or the car take control from you in certain instances, isn't that autonomous driving?  Isn't that level 3, which is now being sold as an option in high-end cars?  Even in the 2016 Honda Civic with "Honda Sensing", it will drive around corners without your hands on the wheel.

So, the answer is two years ago.

Detractors will push back by using the most restrictive possible definition ... want to know when widespread adoption of level 5 is going to be a reality.  They know better, technology is about a fast evolution from 1.0 to 2.0 (or in this case from Level 0 to level 3 in production cars in about 10 years). 

So when is level 5 coming? Hard to know as Google and Waymo are only street testing level 4 right now (saw a Google autonomous car on Elston Avenue in Chicago a few months ago ... I know this because it said "Google Autonomous" Car" in large letters on the side.)

So, define what you think is an autonomous car and we can then discuss when it will arrive.  Like I said above, one could argue it was two years ago.

One actually can't argue it was two years ago, unless one is to also think one can argue that the moon is made of cheese because we haven't seen the whole moon.

Autonomous car is level 5. It requires no human intervention and it interacts cooperatively with other vehicles/environment. Current technology that is deployed in cars is "reactive" (hence most people think of it as safety equipment), for it to be truly autonomous it requires a proactive call and response with decisions being made by the system. Cars have to talk to each other and dynamically make decisions.

Any other position is simply one to hold for rhetorical impact (ie win a silly argument)

[mu_hilltopper]

Even in the 2016 Honda Civic with "Honda Sensing", it will drive around corners without your hands on the wheel.

So, the answer is two years ago.

Still false.  The question I posed was: "What year will the Toyota Corolla have autonomous driving as standard equipment?"

I'll accept the substitute of "Civic" for "Corolla" .. but the Honda system is an OPTION.

The litmus test being widespread adoption of Level 3 and over is because that's when the fun begins.  Robot insurance rates, less parking needs, and the ever fun mass layoffs of truck drivers, taxi/uber drivers.

Level 2 tech means I can occasionally get distracted and my car /might/ help me not kill myself.

And you know all this .. can't quite figure out why you are so adamant about a semantic discussion. 

[Tugg Speedman]

Still false.  The question I posed was: "What year will the Toyota Corolla have autonomous driving as standard equipment?"

I'll accept the substitute of "Civic" for "Corolla" .. but the Honda system is an OPTION.

The litmus test being widespread adoption of Level 3 and over is because that's when the fun begins.  Robot insurance rates, less parking needs, and the ever fun mass layoffs of truck drivers, taxi/uber drivers.

Level 2 tech means I can occasionally get distracted and my car /might/ help me not kill myself.

And you know all this .. can't quite figure out why you are so adamant about a semantic discussion.

Why false?  Honda Sensoring is between level 2 and level 3.

Level Two: Partial Automation
Hands off the wheel, eyes on the road. A level two vehicle has certain modes in which the car can take over both the pedals AND the wheel, but only under certain conditions, and the driver must maintain ultimate control over the vehicle. This is where Tesla's Autopilot has been at since 2014.

Level Three: Conditional Automation
Hands off the wheel, eyes off the road – sometimes. In a level 3 vehicle, the car has certain modes that will fully take over the driving responsibilities, under certain conditions, but a driver is expected to retake control when the system asks for it. This car can decide when to change lanes, and how to respond to dynamic incidents on the road, but uses the human driver as the fallback system. These are dangerous waters in terms of liability, and automakers are more or less trying to skip over it and move straight to level four.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thrillist.com/amphtml/cars/nation/self-driving-cars-for-sale-now

Honda was a late entry into the semi-autonomous driving game, but arrived in a big way when it introduced the 2016 Civic Sedan and Coupe earlier this year. For just a grand, you can buy into the eponymous "Honda Sensing," which is an entire suite of safety technology and driver-assistance features. It’s a little less advanced than a traffic jam assist system, but the Civic can guide its way around a corner and ease the strain of ceaseless city traffic just fine.

So, are you arguing the Civic with Honda Sesnoring is not an autonomous car?  Are you among those that argue level 5 is the only definition of autonomous car and everything else is merely a "safety feature."

Otherwise, if you agree that Honda sensoring is an autonomous car, are you narrowly asking when an optional feature will become a standard feature?

[mu_hilltopper]

Why false?  Honda Sensoring is between level 2 and level 3.
...
So, are you arguing the Civic with Honda Sesnoring is not an autonomous car?  Are you among those that argue level 5 is the only definition of autonomous car and everything else is merely a "safety feature."

Otherwise, if you agree that Honda sensoring is an autonomous car, are you narrowly asking when an optional feature will become a standard feature?

No, I'm not arguing the Civic w/HS is not an auto-car, as I didn't say that.  It's level 2 or 2.5 or whatever.

No, I'm not arguing Level 5 is the only definition.

Feel free to take another crack at it -- or not.

What year will a common, low priced vehicle fulfill all level 3 elements as a standard option the buyer cannot opt out of.

[Tugg Speedman]

No, I'm not arguing the Civic w/HS is not an auto-car, as I didn't say that.  It's level 2 or 2.5 or whatever.

No, I'm not arguing Level 5 is the only definition.

Feel free to take another crack at it -- or not.

What year will a common, low priced vehicle fulfill all level 3 elements as a standard option the buyer cannot opt out of.

The Tesla model 3 will have level 3 autonomy.  Base price is $35k, supposed to hit the road later this year. (US average car price is $32k)

Does this count?

[mu_hilltopper]

Nope.  I addressed the Model 3 here:

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=55433.msg983430#msg983430

[tower912]

If they are ever delivered,  the average Tesla 3 will  cost $50K+.

[mu_hilltopper]

Tugg, legit curious, what is your guess for my question?

[Tugg Speedman]

Tugg, legit curious, what is your guess for my question?

Level 3 ... within 5 years.

Level 4 on the road that can be bought ... three years.

Level 4 will come to Semis first, Tesla is building an electric semi with level 4.  If they pull it off, it will be a game changer for the long-haul trucking business.

[Tugg Speedman]

Axios got a hold of a White House document that says they are considering nationalizing the upcoming 5G network.

5G is a mobile network expected to run at 10 to 20 gig/s, or 10x to 20x faster than the fastest cable speed currently available (now 1 gig/s)

Scoop: Trump team considers nationalizing 5G network
https://www.axios.com/trump-team-debates-nationalizing-5g-network-f1e92a49-60f2-4e3e-acd4-f3eb03d910ff.html

The main points: The documents say America needs a centralized nationwide 5G network within three years. There'll be a fierce debate inside the Trump administration — and an outcry from the industry — over the next 6-8 months over how such a network is built and paid for.

The bigger picture: The memo argues that a strong 5G network is needed in order to create a secure pathway for emerging technologies like self-driving cars and virtual reality — and to combat Chinese threats to America’s economic and cyber security. A PowerPoint slide says the play is the digital counter to China’s One Belt One Road Initiative meant to spread its influence beyond its borders. The documents also fret about China's dominance of Artificial Intelligence, and use that as part of the rationale for this unprecedented proposal.

----------------

Critical to the future of networked self-driving cars in the upcoming 5G mobile network, currently under construction.  So important are self-driving cars, and keeping this network secure, that the White House specifically cited self-driving cars as the reason it is considering the unprecedented step of nationalizing 5G in order to keep up with the Chinese and make sure this game-changing technology becomes reality.

Yes, nationalizing 5G is a very bad idea.  But the larger point is it is coming.  The entire technology infrastructure is being oriented around two things ... self-driving cars and cryptocurrencies.  These will lead to transformational changes in the economy and how we all live our lives, and make a living.

-------

Rant ....

So go ahead and say cryptos and a joke and no one will ever tear the steering wheel out of your hands. 

Then go read literature from 1900 to 1920 about the curmudgeon that was snarling motor traffic with his horse-drawn carriage because he refused to switch to a model T.  Further wonder what he was thinking when he kept his life savings in currencies in a box under his bed because he did not trust banks.  Then wonder how many here are the new millennium version of that guy.

Oh wait, you say, you fully acknowledge these technologies are coming but just think it will take longer than most think.  But you will fully embrace them when they get finally here.

Now go see the UIC post about urban millennials.  The reason companies like McDonald's are ditching OakBrook for the Fulton Market District of Chicago (detailed in that thread) is they represent the future of corporate America.

50+ baby boomers are now the problem.  They are all doing mental calculations of how many more years they need to work.  Yes, these technologies are coming.  But they think to themselves that they are (say) 55 and if they can continue to ignore change for another 5 to 7 years, they can retire at 62 in full comfort.  Then they convince themselves that this change will not happen fast enough so they can "beat the clock" and make it to 62 without changing and leave the 40 to 45 year old to sort out the new technological world.

This thinking is the big problem in corporate America.  These middle managers in their 50s are intentionally slowing down change for their own selfish reason, they want to remain relevant.  They fear this change means they are out of a job (which is not true if they really understood it). So while companies like McDonald's will not lay them off, McD is moving on, down to the Millennial Urban area and telling the baby boomer managers they are welcome to get on the train and "keep up."  Otherwise, they can retire now.

[Tugg Speedman]

The average life of an office building or shopping Mall is 50+ years.  Have to assume that in 30 years (if not sooner), all cars are autonomous.  So how does one build with convenient parking now (which is necessary) but not have that parking turn into a money wasting eyesore when the world is full of level 5 autonomous cars?

This is a real challenge for the real estate/architecture industry.

Does this mean Woodfield gets torn down within 30 years?  That massive parking lot will be an expensive eyesore.  What does Water Tower do when the massive basement garage becomes worthless (and the loss of that revenue)?


January 30, 2018
The Wall Street Journal
Say Goodbye to Garages as Developers Imagine a Driverless Future
Developers are starting to build parking garages that can be converted to office space or apartments down the road
https://www.wsj.com/articles/say-goodbye-to-garages-as-developers-imagine-a-driverless-future-1517317200


Mass adoption of driverless cars is still years away, but architects, developers and planners already are designing new projects with autonomous vehicles in mind.

Developers are starting to build offices with internal parking structures that can be converted to office space if demand for private parking decreases. New master-planned projects in cities like Toronto, Los Angeles, Oslo, San Francisco and Boston are being designed with features like curbside drop-off areas for passengers and e-commerce deliveries that replace traditional parking lanes.

“The term that we’re hearing over and over again is ‘future-proof,’” said Jeffrey Shumaker, director of Urban Planning and Design at architecture firm Kohn Pedersen Fox Associates in New York.

Novel ideas are being floated for the distant future as well as the messy transitional years until mass adoption of driverless vehicles is complete. For example, Gensler already is looking at ways to free up green space in housing developments by replacing driveways with common storage areas for autonomous vehicles.

[Tugg Speedman]

Cool video on the link

Forget Self-Driving Cars, Robot Delivery Vans Are Here
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-30/nuro-has-built-a-robot-van-to-deliver-your-stuff

The future of driverless driving looks like a giant toaster with a funny hat.

That’s an approximation of a new autonomous vehicle unveiled Tuesday by Nuro, a Silicon Valley startup that’s been cryptic about its business plan since it launched about 18 months ago. Nuro’s shiny, minimalist appliance on wheels doesn’t have doors or windows to speak of, because it will be carrying packages—not people.

As every major automaker and dozens of tech companies race to replace drivers in Uber cars and taxi fleets, Nuro is ignoring humans altogether and steering for Amazon.com Inc., United Parcel Service Inc. and any retailer looking to build its e-commerce business. “We realized we could make it possible to deliver anything, anytime, anywhere,” said co-founder Dave Ferguson. “We like to call it a local teleportation service.”

[mu_hilltopper]

Damp towel on the self-driving parade:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/driverless-hype-collides-with-merciless-reality-1536831005

[buckchuckler]

Interesting.  Obviously, such incidents are pretty much inevitable.  But, honestly, each one will provide important information that will help advance the technology.  Remember, the bar isn't set very high -- lots of people are really crappy drivers.  I'd be curious to know the "accidents-per-mile-driven" number for these cars as compared to humans.

I believe the safest combination has proven to be human drivers paired with the advanced safety technology, such as forward radar sensors, blind spot monitors and lane departure warnings. 

On a related note, I believe the penalty for texting while driving should be the same as drunk driving. 

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

I believe the safest combination has proven to be human drivers paired with the advanced safety technology, such as forward radar sensors, blind spot monitors and lane departure warnings. 

On a related note, I believe the penalty for texting while driving should be the same as drunk driving.

There would literally not be enough room in prisons to incarcerate every single person who texts and drives.

[SaveOD238]

On a related note, I believe the penalty for texting while driving should be the same as drunk driving.

In Wisconsin, that means a ticket, at least for a first time offender.

[Lennys Tap]

There would literally not be enough room in prisons to incarcerate every single person who texts and drives.

True, but if we treated them like drunk drivers (aren't they every bit as dangerous?) there would be a huge drop in their number - and it wouldn't take long.

[Benny B]

True, but if we treated them like drunk drivers (aren't they every bit as dangerous?) there would be a huge drop in their number - and it wouldn't take long.

We should probably start retesting seniors every year then.  I would argue that most anyone over the age of 70 is more dangerous than an experienced driver in their 40’s on their phone.  Even if the level of impairment due to age is 20% and impairment due to phoning is 60%, I’ll take my chances with the intermittent 60 than the constant 20.

[🏀]

We should probably start retesting seniors every year then.  I would argue that most anyone over the age of 70 is more dangerous than an experienced driver in their 40’s on their phone.  Even if the level of impairment due to age is 20% and impairment due to phoning is 60%, I’ll take my chances with the intermittent 60 than the constant 20.

This.

[Hards Alumni]

No, I'm not arguing the Civic w/HS is not an auto-car, as I didn't say that.  It's level 2 or 2.5 or whatever.

No, I'm not arguing Level 5 is the only definition.

Feel free to take another crack at it -- or not.

What year will a common, low priced vehicle fulfill all level 3 elements as a standard option the buyer cannot opt out of.

Depends on when 5G gets fully rolled out.  2022 Would be my guess.

[Hards Alumni]

In Wisconsin, that means a ticket, at least for a first time offender.

Oh, honey.

The percentage of people texting and driving is extremely high.  The amount of people being pulled over or caught doing it is extremely small.

I still like my idea that anyone in an at fault accident gets their phone record pulled and if it can be proven that the offender was using their phone in ANY way, the fine doubles and the point demerits double.

[mu_hilltopper]

The percentage of people texting and driving is extremely high. 

"We" should stop using the phrase "texting and driving" which by definition is "writing a text via SMS."

Actual writing a text via SMS is a fraction of what you can do on your phone that steals your attention while driving.

Reading texts, facebook, twitter.  Finding a Pandora station to play.  Checking a map.  Looking at photos, snapchat, iMessage.  Googling something, the weather, ad infinitum.

Something I'm guilty of is using Waze.   

Depends on when 5G gets fully rolled out.  2022 Would be my guess.

I don't see why self-driving and 5G is linked.    Better connectivity will make it better, but .. hell, we don't have 3G in some parts of the country.    5G needs far more towers .. gonna be forever before it's reliable, and probably never will be, just like the spotty networks we have now.

No way in hell would I trust a self-driving unit that needed cell connectivity to operate properly.