X-crement

[wadesworld]

Not really.  Free throw rate was way more of a factor.

Last night?  Not really, no.  You can't change the calls the refs made.  You can make the free throws you got.  And the % that Xavier made the free throws they got compared to the % of free throws that Marquette made that they got was the difference in the game.

Missing free throws matters.  No matter what Scoopers say.  Does free throw % over the course of a season decide how good of a team you are?  No.  Does making the free throws you get in individual games matter?  Abso-freaking-lutely, and it was a difference in the game last night against a top 5 opponent.

[GGGG]

Last night?  Not really, no.  You can't change the calls the refs made.  You can make the free throws you got.  And the % that Xavier made the free throws they got compared to the % of free throws that Marquette made that they got was the difference in the game.

Missing free throws matters.  No matter what Scoopers say.  Does free throw % over the course of a season decide how good of a team you are?  No.  Does making the free throws you get in individual games matter?  Abso-freaking-lutely, and it was a difference in the game last night against a top 5 opponent.

Oh for the love of Pete.  NO ONE SAYS THAT MISSING FREE THROWS DOESN'T MATTER!!!!  Doing anything good is better than doing anything bad.

That's not the point of "FTs no matta."  It never was.  It isn't now.  It has been explained 100 times. 

[wadesworld]

FT% didn't matter.  FT rate did.  Xavier attacks the basket and gets calls.  Marquette shoots jumpers and doesn't.  Basketball 101.

Oh for the love of Pete.  NO ONE SAYS THAT MISSING FREE THROWS DOESN'T MATTER!!!!  Doing anything good is better than doing anything bad.

That's not the point of "FTs no matta."  It never was.  It isn't now.  It has been explained 100 times. 

So free throw % mattered.

[Herman Cain]

The team played well against a well coached , deep and talented Xavier squad.  We missed a few key shots at the end and they didn’t so we lost .  We can build off this game. All four newcomers did well and that was the biggest positive. Froling has an excellent nose for where the rebounds are going to be, it is hard to teach that.

[GGGG]

So free throw % mattered.

It mattered as much as it usually does.  Which is not much.

FT rate was much more of a factor.  Howard shooting poorly was much more of a factor.  Free throw % was not.

[wadesworld]

It mattered as much as it usually does.  Which is not much.

FT rate was much more of a factor.  Howard shooting poorly was much more of a factor.  Free throw % was not.

eFG%?  Marquette won that
Rebounding %?  Tied
Turnover %?  Marquette won that

So where was the game won or lost?  At the line.  And even with Xavier getting a higher free throw rate (something that is partially in the hands of the officials), if MU and Xavier shoot the same FT% (something entirely in the hands of the players at the line) Marquette wins the game.

So we can have a few posters pretend they have some superior knowledge of basketball because they can tell you that a team's season long free throw % isn't indicative of how good that team is (I don't think anybody will disagree with that, but for those who need to blurt it out loud every chance they get to feel better about themselves congrats to them), but to pretend FT % wasn't a factor in the game being discussed in this thread is laughable.  It was literally the difference.

[Lighthouse 84]

eFG%?  Marquette won that
Rebounding %?  Tied
Turnover %?  Marquette won that

So where was the game won or lost?  At the line.  And even with Xavier getting a higher free throw rate (something that is partially in the hands of the officials), if MU and Xavier shoot the same FT% (something entirely in the hands of the players at the line) Marquette wins the game.

So we can have a few posters pretend they have some superior knowledge of basketball because they can tell you that a team's season long free throw % isn't indicative of how good that team is (I don't think anybody will disagree with that, but for those who need to blurt it out loud every chance they get to feel better about themselves congrats to them), but to pretend FT % wasn't a factor in the game being discussed in this thread is laughable.  It was literally the difference.

Give it up Wades.  Neither you nor anyone else can compete with Sultan, who is never wrong.  Just ask him.

[Clam Crowder]

The thing to me with look at FT makes and misses in a game is how the game would have changed based on those makes/misses....What would the score have been if Harry/Theo make 1 or 2 more with a minute left-How would X have played in that last minute based on that score? Easy to just say oh we missed this many free throws add it to the score and say OH WE WOULD HAVE WON if we made those...

Just not a realistic way to look at it to me. If we made 3 more FT's 5 more FT's the game changes, how X plays changes-Changing 1 variable to the game doesnt automatically mean MU wins-That 1 variable changing would lead to the whole game being changed.

We lost because of poor possessions/quick shots down the stretch and not enough Sam Hauser. I remember at least 2 of the plays down the stretch where Sam was just wide open at the 3 pt line calling for the ball.

[Silkk the Shaka]

The thing to me with look at FT makes and misses in a game is how the game would have changed based on those makes/misses....What would the score have been if Harry/Theo make 1 or 2 more with a minute left-How would X have played in that last minute based on that score? Easy to just say oh we missed this many free throws add it to the score and say OH WE WOULD HAVE WON if we made those...

Just not a realistic way to look at it to me. If we made 3 more FT's 5 more FT's the game changes, how X plays changes-Changing 1 variable to the game doesnt automatically mean MU wins-That 1 variable changing would lead to the whole game being changed.

We lost because of poor possessions/quick shots down the stretch and not enough Sam Hauser. I remember at least 2 of the plays down the stretch where Sam was just wide open at the 3 pt line calling for the ball.

Yeah I was screaming for them to hit Sam open down the stretch, the dude's so money he would have drained them too. He's quickly moving up my list of favorites all time.

[willie warrior]

1.   It sure as hell wasn't dull.
2.  Macura is a punk.   Nice flop to draw the tech.   And so many other things.   How did Duke miss on him?
3.   Markus with two poor decisions late on drives.   Dodged contact three times.
4.  Cain and John look like they might be OK.   Somebody needs to help Theo with his FT stroke.   Cain taking minutes from Sacar.
5.  It isn't like Marquette didn't have their chances.    Possible steal for Sam turning into a three for X.   Three missed layups for Markus.   Decent looks for Rowsey.
6.  Froling in the game at crunch time.   Very little Heldt in the second half.   
7.   X is a top 10 team for a reason.    Long, deep, experienced, without fear. 
8.  Free throws matta'd down the stretch. 
9.  A great game.  A painful loss.   In the end, Marquette had opportunities to make plays at winning time and didn't make them.   Xavier did.   Pretty simple.

1. No it wasn't dull
2. Macura is a punk approaching Defendork punkness
3. Yes, not a good game for Markus
4. Cain and John are more than OK. Yes, John needs work on FT.s. So does Anim and Froling
5. Yes, we had chances. Xavier is better
6. Froling missed two key FT's, and had a huge TO at crunch time. He is better than Heldt. Has a ways to go before he is a "difference maker"
7. Yes
8. Yes, FT's matter, let John and Froling know.

We have a ways to go to approach upper echelon BEast status.

[GGGG]

eFG%?  Marquette won that
Rebounding %?  Tied
Turnover %?  Marquette won that

So where was the game won or lost?  At the line.  And even with Xavier getting a higher free throw rate (something that is partially in the hands of the officials), if MU and Xavier shoot the same FT% (something entirely in the hands of the players at the line) Marquette wins the game.

So we can have a few posters pretend they have some superior knowledge of basketball because they can tell you that a team's season long free throw % isn't indicative of how good that team is (I don't think anybody will disagree with that, but for those who need to blurt it out loud every chance they get to feel better about themselves congrats to them), but to pretend FT % wasn't a factor in the game being discussed in this thread is laughable.  It was literally the difference.

No it was not "literally the difference."  Many factors were the difference.  One factor can't be pulled out and say "this is the reason why we lost."  Basketball doesn't work that way.

But FT% didn't matter as much as FT rate did.  If Marquette shoots the same FT% as X does, they score 4 more points.  (Not accounting for missed front ends.)  If Marquette has the same FT rate as X does, but shoot the same FT%, they score 7 more points.

I realize the math isn't perfect so people can blow holes in this if they wish.  But that's the entire point of "FTs no matta."  FT% was simply not as significant a factor as others.

[Goose]

My thoughts from last night:

1. A very, very entertaining game. Great crowd and exciting environment.
2. Xavier has a helluva of a team. They are going to be a tough out in March.
3. We needed to play flawless to win and even then it would be tough. Seemed like Xavier had ability to put it in overdrive whenever it looked like MU had chance to pull away.
4. Seldom bitch about refs, but MU was on short end of the calls last night. One of the poorer ref games I have seen in a long time.
5. Had a great time, but still think there is a lot of heavy lifting to do before we can compete the Xavier's on a nightly basis.

[Silkk the Shaka]

My thoughts from last night:

1. A very, very entertaining game. Great crowd and exciting environment.
2. Xavier has a helluva of a team. They are going to be a tough out in March.
3. We needed to play flawless to win and even then it would be tough. Seemed like Xavier had ability to put it in overdrive whenever it looked like MU had chance to pull away.
4. Seldom bitch about refs, but MU was on short end of the calls last night. One of the poorer ref games I have seen in a long time.
5. Had a great time, but still think there is a lot of heavy lifting to do before we can compete the Xavier's on a nightly basis.

This year, yes. Add Joey, Morrow, and Bailey to the mix next year along with a year of improvement for everyone on the roster and we'll be competing for the BEast crown.

[MUfan12]

This year, yes. Add Joey, Morrow, and Bailey to the mix next year along with a year of improvement for everyone on the roster and we'll be competing for the BEast crown.

Unless there's a PG in that mix, I don't see it.

[DCHoopster]

Unless there's a PG in that mix, I don't see it.

I have to agree, but lets face it, if Wojo can not get a grad transfer point something is wrong.  Everything to sell to a point right now.  Perfect situation.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Entertaining game, even though it wasn't the desired outcome.  This freshman class, I believe, will be something really special.  Cain was very impressive last night.  I hope he can build on it and become a go-to rotation player as the season progresses.  It's possible he may even take Anim's starting spot as we get deeper into BE play.  Elliot and John have the look of four-year building blocks as well, and they will only get better with more experience and more PT.  The challenge for Wojo and staff is their development year-to-year and not to have any significant regressions.

I think the biggest critique of Wojo and staff is the advancement and development of our younger players.  Many of our younger freshmen players that get minutes appear to get lost as sophomores, with a few eventually transferring out (Carter, Cheatham, Cohen come to mind).  Having said that, their development is strongly dependent on the players around them and how they compliment one another.  I think next year's team will have an incredible amount of size and experience, along with young talent in Hauser/Bailey. 

It can be hard to remain patient in year four of the Wojo era, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel.  I have no doubt that this year's team will steal a game or two (like last year's Villanova game).  Lots of basketball left this season.

[MUBurrow]

Free throws are just the laziest difference to yell about. And because they are easy to point out, their importance gets overemphasized by the people looking for an easy thing to blame outcomes on.

[Class71]

Markus needs to "win" a big game for MU, not just score 30 in a game they should win anyhow.  Everyone is going to have an off-night, but Markus compounded things by playing stupid.

No chance MU gets into the tourney with all these home losses.

MU does not have to beat a top 10 team to get into the Dance. Given the youth of this team there will be considerable grow in the coming weeks. Froling will be integrated into the offense and Theo will continue to improve as well as Cain and Elliot. This team has the potential to be the best since Buzz's next to last season. I am very encouraged by what I see and how far we have come this year. We will not need to wait until next year if they continue to work hard.

[MUfan12]

Free throws are just the laziest difference to yell about. And because they are easy to point out, their importance gets overemphasized by the people looking for an easy thing to blame outcomes on.

Yup. Two of our worst FT shooters each missed a pair. So be it.

That's nowhere near as important as the fact that MU couldn't guard without fouling, X shot 61.5% from two, and MU's offense degraded to a bunch of dribbling and a heave from three.

[wadesworld]

Yup. Two of our worst FT shooters each missed a pair. So be it.

That's nowhere near as important as the fact that MU couldn't guard without fouling, X shot 61.5% from two, and MU's offense degraded to a bunch of dribbling and a heave from three.

And despite all that, MU won the "most important factor," eFG%.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

On average, you are right. But, in a close game, it is a big deal.

No. Fans just make it a big deal because for some reason they think free throws should be easier than they are. X shooting over 50% from the floor, us shooting under 50% from the floor, X grabbing 9 offensive boards, us giving up 10 turnovers, us only forcing 11 turnovers, and X getting to the line 10 more times than us were much bigger factors in why we lost. Us shooting 57% from the line? That's still a very efficient trip on offense.

FT% is always a factor, but always a small one. If we shot the league average from the line last night (~69%) we still would have lost by 2. If we shot our season average from the line last night (77%) we still would have lost by 1.

[MerrittsMustache]

Xavier is better than Marquette. They were more aggressive, more poised and played better basketball down the stretch. X wanted to take away Hauser and they did. They were more than happy with Rowsey and Howard dribbling around and firing up contested shots.

When your two guards take 43 shots and have more TOs than assists, it's tough to win. Sure, Rowsey scored a bunch of points but he also took a lot of bad shots (as did Howard). There were multiple times where someone was open but Rowsey/Howard had his head down and was determined to get a shot off. That's got to change. It can work in non-conf games but MU's margin for error in the Big East is too thin to waste possessions with quick, forced shots. Rowsey had been doing pretty well with that lately, but last night Macura clearly got in his head. At the end of the day, Jamal Cain is the main reason why MU was in that game.

Move on and get ready for Georgetown. MU needs to win games like Saturday's if they want to have a shot at the NCAAT.

[GGGG]

Also, for the players who played more than 15 minutes, Rowsey and Howard had the two lowest EFG% and the two highest Usage Rate.  By far.  That's not good.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

eFG%?  Marquette won that
Rebounding %?  Tied
Turnover %?  Marquette won that

You are correct about this but your conclusion is incorrect.

This is a rare game where one team won 3/4 factors....and the 3 most important factors no less....but still lost.

eFG%: MU 57.2% X 56.6%
TO%: MU 13.6% X 14.8%
OR%: MU 30%, X 29%
FTR: MU 20.3%, X 39.3%

MU barely won the first three factors, each by 1.2% or less. And then got dominated by X in FTR.

As I said in a previous post, if Marquette shoots their season average from the FT line they still lose by 1.If MU got to the line more or let X get to the line less, they win this thing, possibly by several points.

[wadesworld]

You are correct about this but your conclusion is incorrect.

This is a rare game where one team won 3/4 factors....and the 3 most important factors no less....but still lost.

eFG%: MU 57.2% X 56.6%
TO%: MU 13.6% X 14.8%
OR%: MU 30%, X 29%
FTR: MU 20.3%, X 39.3%

MU barely won the first three factors, each by 1.2% or less. And then got dominated by X in FTR.

As I said in a previous post, if Marquette shoots their season average from the FT line they still lose by 1.If MU got to the line more or let X get to the line less, they win this thing, possibly by several points.

But all of that is partially in the control of people not on Marquette's team.  Standing at the free throw line is entirely in Marquette's control.  It's the exact same shot for Marquette as it is for Xavier, whereas not all field goal attempts are exactly the same for both teams, not all calls are exactly the same for both teams, etc.

Marquette had a chance to shoot free throws just as well as Xavier and didn't.

Free throw percentage mattered.