Bracketology

[MuMark]

We are in.......no sweat.....ok a little sweat....

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

[Windyplayer]

This team is just finding their footing with Froling coming into the fold. I'll take it!

[MUBigDance]

The BE is decent this year so 9-9 "might" get us in but I think we'll need 10-8.

It's going to be brutal. Everyone in the BE is thinking the same thing as us (except DePaul). Everyone is good and there are 3 or 4 teams that are heading for a real disappointment. Will we be one of them???

[MarquetteDano]

The BE is decent this year so 9-9 "might" get us in but I think we'll need 10-8.

It's going to be brutal. Everyone in the BE is thinking the same thing as us (except DePaul). Everyone is good and there are 3 or 4 teams that are heading for a real disappointment. Will we be one of them???

Weird to think nine out of ten teams have legitimate tourney aspirations.  Yea GTown has played a comically soft  sched but they have not  lost.

[🏀]

Weird to think nine out of ten teams have legitimate tourney aspirations.  Yea GTown has played a comically soft  sched but they have not  lost.

If anyone in DC is thinking tourney, they should reevaluate their opinion.

[MuMark]

According to Pomeroy .....Hoyas would have to win 12 conference games to feel good about their chances......11 would be a sweat.

Committee just hates rewarding power conference teams for scheduling nobody in the NC.......they would look for every reason to leave them out.

[MarquetteDano]

According to Pomeroy .....Hoyas would have to win 12 conference games to feel good about their chances......11 would be a sweat.

Committee just hates rewarding power conference teams for scheduling nobody in the NC.......they would look for every reason to leave them out.

No question. My use of legitimate too strong but just strange that all but DePaul thinks they can make it.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The BE is decent this year so 9-9 "might" get us in but I think we'll need 10-8.

You are underestimating the quality of our schedule

https://painttouches.com/2017/12/09/playing-with-rpi-wizard-after-the-storming-of-the-kohl-hole/

7-11, need to get to the BE championship game, would still be sweating
8-10, on the bubble, probably in if there aren't many bracketbusters
9-9, comfortably in
10-8, seeded in the top half of the tourney

[brewcity77]

Weird to think nine out of ten teams have legitimate tourney aspirations.  Yea GTown has played a comically soft  sched but they have not  lost.

Georgetown has no chance and their Charmin soft schedule, despite being undefeated, hurts them more than it helps.

[mufvr]

Here's I see the BE.  Definite ins:  Nova, Seton Hall and Xavier.  Probably in: Creighton.  Definitely out:  De Paul & GT.  That leaves MU, Butler, Providence and SJ for a dogfight.  At least one, probably two will get in.  Right now, Pomeroy has those four ranked 48-56.  MU had the toughest NC schedule so that should help.  We can't afford for any letdown losses this year.  I'm feeling better about our chances.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Sagarin's predictor isn't perfect...the day before the Marquette game it predicted that Wisconsin would go 12-6 in the B1G...but it currently projects Georgetown going 1-17 in Big East play.

What's the weakest SOS to ever make the tournament as an at-large? Georgetown's SOS is going to be hovering around the century mark despite playing in the BEast.

If they went 23-6 (12-6) with a win against Cuse....their RPI would 30 and SOS would by 97 (per RPI Wizard). A few years back, St. Bonaventure's RPI was 30 but they were left out of the tournament with a 112 SOS. One more lose knocks their RPI back to 40. I don't think 40 RPI and 97 SOS gets it done. Georgetown can only lose more games for the entire season. They are not coming close to sniffing the tournament.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Here's I see the BE.  Definite ins:  Nova, Seton Hall and Xavier.  Probably in: Creighton.  Definitely out:  De Paul & GT.  That leaves MU, Butler, Providence and SJ for a dogfight.  At least one, probably two will get in.  Right now, Pomeroy has those four ranked 48-56.  MU had the toughest NC schedule so that should help.  We can't afford for any letdown losses this year.  I'm feeling better about our chances.

I agree with all this. I think MU and Providence will be on the right side of things. I'm not sold on Butler or SJU yet....but SJU has been a lot more consistent than I expected.

[Eldon]

Sagarin's predictor isn't perfect...the day before the Marquette game it predicted that Wisconsin would go 12-6 in the B1G...but it currently projects Georgetown going 1-17 in Big East play.

What's the weakest SOS to ever make the tournament as an at-large? Georgetown's SOS is going to be hovering around the century mark despite playing in the BEast.

If they went 23-6 (12-6) with a win against Cuse....their RPI would 30 and SOS would by 97 (per RPI Wizard). A few years back, St. Bonaventure's RPI was 30 but they were left out of the tournament with a 112 SOS. One more lose knocks their RPI back to 40. I don't think 40 RPI and 97 SOS gets it done. Georgetown can only lose more games for the entire season. They are not coming close to sniffing the tournament.

Syracuse a few years ago?

[GooooMarquette]

We got this.

[cheese ball chaser]

Weird to think nine out of ten teams have legitimate tourney aspirations.  Yea GTown has played a comically soft  sched but they have not  lost.

Georgetown's RPI is 199 right now - how many Big East games would they need to win to get in?

[brewcity77]

Georgetown's RPI is 199 right now - how many Big East games would they need to win to get in?

Assuming they beat Syracuse and win out in non-con, I'd guess 12 Big East wins. While their SOS sucks, it's hard to imagine a 12-6, 40 RPI Big East team being left out. Lose to Syracuse and it's 13 wins.

[JWags85]

I know its academic at this point, but laughable how we are a seed line below Central Michigan whose best win is probably the juggernaut from Cal State Bakersfield and lost their only game against a decent opponent to Michigan.  Or a lower 12 seed than Towson who lost to ODU and hasn't beat anybody better than Penn.

Either way, other than the poor showing against Georgia, our non-conference shaped up quite well and sets us up great moving forward.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The BE is decent this year so 9-9 "might" get us in but I think we'll need 10-8.

It's going to be brutal. Everyone in the BE is thinking the same thing as us (except DePaul). Everyone is good and there are 3 or 4 teams that are heading for a real disappointment. Will we be one of them???

9-9 will be a stone cold lock.

[brewcity77]

9-9 will be a stone cold lock.

If we went 9-9 and lost to DePaul or Georgetown at MSG we might be sweating a little, but agree that 9-9 should have us comfortably in.

[jesmu84]

Per lunardi, not in.

[cheebs09]

Gotta say, I'm pretty surprised we aren't even on the radar for Lunardi. Granted, the Big East season is really where we have the best opportunity to build our resume.

[MUBigDance]

Gotta say, I'm pretty surprised we aren't even on the radar for Lunardi. Granted, the Big East season is really where we have the best opportunity to build our resume.

This is the truth. NonCon is the qualifier. Good record and decent SOS and wins. BE is where we sink or swim. Time to swim.

[forgetful]

I would ignore anything Lunardi does at this point. It is illogical, and meaningless and ESPN will do everything they can to promote their product (ACC) as much as they can. 

Example:  Louisville is currently easily in as a 7 seed.  By most metrics we are the better team. 

Record:  7-2 (losses to Purdue and Seton Hall)
RPI:  114
Best win: St. Francis (PA) RPI 154

Not saying we should be in, but Lunardi has 11 ACC teams in, and I don't see the ACC getting any more than 8 (maybe 9). 

[Mr. Nielsen]

Palm has Kentucky as a 9 seed. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Syracuse a few years ago?

Syracuse's SOS was 18 that year. It was what got them into the tournament. It was their RPI that was weak at 72.