CBS: Rankings Team 1-351

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

MU at 56.

8 BE teams in top 64.  Depaul and Georgetown at 106 and 120, respectively. 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ranking-all-351-college-basketball-teams-from-duke-to-alabama-a-m/

[MUBigDance]

Thanks for the link. 
Does anyone have a sense as to the track-record of the CBS ranking. I'm curious about how close they've been the last few years on Marquette.

Is there a pre-season ranking that's usually the best on this...I know a lot of the statistical rankings get better with time but I wonder which list is the best now.

What I do know is we beat this prediction if we make the tourney. MU in the Big Dance!

[GB Warrior]

Sh!t and this is before the secret scrimmage

[JakeBarnes]

Sh!t and this is before the secret scrimmage

So you're saying we can help our seeding?

[GB Warrior]

So you're saying we can help our seeding?

Wojo only wins the easy scrimmages

[tower912]

Winner replaces Coach K?

[TheREALwrk]

Interesting. I'm very interested in the VCU game as I think we need to win our first game in Maui.

This is the the first ranking I've seen with VCU higher than MU. Kenpom and T-rank have MU way above VCU.

[brewcity77]

Interesting. I'm very interested in the VCU game as I think we need to win our first game in Maui.

This is the the first ranking I've seen with VCU higher than MU. Kenpom and T-rank have MU way above VCU.

Apologies to wades, but VCU is unquestionably the most important game of the year. We would be better off going 1-2 in Maui and beating VCU than going 2-1 with a loss to VCU and wins over Cal and Chaminade/LSU. The SOS difference will likely be the difference of seeing a top-10 (Wichita State) and top-25 (ND or Michigan) team on one side or a sub-75 (Cal) and sub-75 (LSU) or non-counter (Chaminade) on the other.

[wadesworld]

Apologies to wades, but VCU is unquestionably the most important game of the year. We would be better off going 1-2 in Maui and beating VCU than going 2-1 with a loss to VCU and wins over Cal and Chaminade/LSU. The SOS difference will likely be the difference of seeing a top-10 (Wichita State) and top-25 (ND or Michigan) team on one side or a sub-75 (Cal) and sub-75 (LSU) or non-counter (Chaminade) on the other.

Mt. St. Mary’s is the biggest game of the season.

[TinyTimsLittleBrother]

Apologies to wades, but VCU is unquestionably the most important game of the year. We would be better off going 1-2 in Maui and beating VCU than going 2-1 with a loss to VCU and wins over Cal and Chaminade/LSU. The SOS difference will likely be the difference of seeing a top-10 (Wichita State) and top-25 (ND or Michigan) team on one side or a sub-75 (Cal) and sub-75 (LSU) or non-counter (Chaminade) on the other.

Sorry but I'd rather go 2-1 even if it means losing to VCU.  Winning games is much more enjoyable than fretting about SOS.

[brewcity77]

Sorry but I'd rather go 2-1 even if it means losing to VCU.  Winning games is much more enjoyable than fretting about SOS.

I guess it depends on how you want the season to end. If you want the best shot at making the tournament and having the best seed possible, we need to beat VCU. If you'd rather win in the moment and lose out in March, we're better off losing to VCU since it means two very winnable games after (even if one may literally have no more bearing on our season than the Lindenwood game next week).

VCU will not just impact our SOS, it will also give us the chance at getting quality wins, which we won't have the opportunity for if we lose. I'd rather play good teams and be entertained than play bad teams and puff our chests after beating a Hawaiian cupcake.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I see two possible outcomes for our path in Maui:

1. Beat VCU, play Wichita State and then Michigan/ND
2. Lose to VCU, play Cal and then LSU

Option 2 is almost a guaranteed 2-1. Both Cal and LSU look like sub 100 KenPom teams to me. Maybe LSU sneaks into the top 100.

Option 3 can range from 1-2 to 3-0. Wichita State will be the favorite but beatable without McDuffie. If Shamet is still out or even limited because of his injury, that becomes at least a 50/50 game, we might even be the favorite. In the third round, I would give Notre Dame the edge but are beatable. I think MU and Michigan are about as close to a toss up as you can get.

I personally like option 1 better. That Wichita State game is going to look a lot better at the end of the season once they get fully healthy. I also think we are significantly better than VCU. They are going to be relying heavily on guys that transferred from Maine and Longwood...both of whom are ranked in the bottom 10 teams in Division 1.

[barfolomew]

VCU will not just impact our SOS, it will also give us the chance at getting quality wins, which we won't have the opportunity for if we lose. I'd rather play good teams and be entertained than play bad teams and puff our chests after beating a Hawaiian cupcake.

Mmmmm... the sweet, sweet taste of plummeting SOS.

[brewcity77]

As far as Maui, we will either have the opportunity for three quality wins by beating VCU or zero quality wins if we lose. There is no upside to losing that game. It helps strength of schedule, it virtually assures us coming out with at least one quality win (VCU themselves), it avoids losing a "counting" game by putting us in the bracket opposite Chaminade, and opens up the door for even more quality wins.

If we beat VCU, then 18 total wins (with a 9-9 or better conference record) is probably enough to get us into the NCAA Tournament, and VCU will have been one of those 18. If we lose, we likely need 19-20 and we don't have the VCU scalp.

As far as quality non-con wins, we will have 1 guaranteed and 6 opportunities if we beat VCU (VCU and Purdue, Wichita State, ND/Michigan, Georgia, Vermont, UW-Madison) or 0 guaranteed and 4 opportunities if we lose to VCU (Purdue, Georgia, Vermont, UW-Madison).

I can't remember the last time we played such a singularly significant non-con game. Looking back at past non-con tournaments, there was always at least one decent team that ended up in that losing half of the bracket to give you a shot at a good win with a first-round loss. Rhode Island in Orlando in 2014, Arizona State and Miami in Anaheim in 2013...I guess maybe if you go back to Maui in 2012, where Texas and USC were the two best teams on the losing side of the bracket (both sub-100, Texas there because they lost to Chaminade).

Maui is somewhat dangerous in that regard. You always get some powerhouse teams, but them having Chaminade and usually at least two dogs means the losing side of the bracket can be really ugly. Chaminade is out of the main tourney starting next year, so that will help in the future, but for now, it puts a huge amount of importance on that first game, especially if you're the 4/5 game (which we seem to be).

[PGsHeroes32]

Mt. St. Mary’s is the biggest game of the season.

Let's try and keep the stupid to a minimum this year.

I know you've got it in ya

[TinyTimsLittleBrother]

I guess it depends on how you want the season to end. If you want the best shot at making the tournament and having the best seed possible, we need to beat VCU. If you'd rather win in the moment and lose out in March, we're better off losing to VCU since it means two very winnable games after (even if one may literally have no more bearing on our season than the Lindenwood game next week).

VCU will not just impact our SOS, it will also give us the chance at getting quality wins, which we won't have the opportunity for if we lose. I'd rather play good teams and be entertained than play bad teams and puff our chests after beating a Hawaiian cupcake.

Marquette has its destiny in its hands regardless of how they perform in Maui.

[GooooMarquette]

We got Maui.

[brewcity77]

Marquette has its destiny in its hands regardless of how they perform in Maui.

Sure, they could go 0-30 and win four at MSG. But VCU makes a massive difference in the schedule no matter how you slice it, more massive than any other game.

[GB Warrior]

Marquette has its destiny in its hands regardless of how they perform in Maui.

Every team has its destiny in its hands. There's a name for that phenomenon. It's called the offseason.

[TinyTimsLittleBrother]

Sure, they could go 0-30 and win four at MSG. But VCU makes a massive difference in the schedule no matter how you slice it, more massive than any other game.

From a SOS perspective maybe. But other than that, not really.

[brewcity77]

From a SOS perspective maybe. But other than that, not really.

I specifically said "massive difference in the schedule" in the post you quoted. And yes, more massive than any other game. Last year, had we swapped neutral court games with Pitt (RPI 74) and Seton Hall (RPI 44) with North Carolina (RPI 5) and Minnesota (RPI 20) we would have increased 13 spots in SOS. Cal and LSU will likely be significantly worse than Pitt or Seton Hall, so the VCU game could swing our SOS by 20+ spots come Selection Sunday.

As far as reasons that game is significant:

• Strength of Schedule
• Maximum number of quality non-con win opportunities goes from 4 to 7
• Requisite number of total wins to secure a NCAA berth increases
• No chance of playing Chaminade, which would reduce our D1 win capability by 1

Beat VCU and we have a shot to get in at 18-12 (9-9). Lose to VCU and we likely have to go 20-10 (9-9). Unless we play Chaminade, in which case we likely have to go 21-9 (9-9).

Getting into the NCAA Tournament is generally a simple equation of number of wins measured against strength of schedule. When one game can swing your SOS by 20 points or more, it doesn't get much bigger than that. This is at least the biggest non-con game since we played Butler in Maui in 2012.

[TinyTimsLittleBrother]

Getting into the NCAA Tournament is generally a simple equation of number of wins measured against strength of schedule. When one game can swing your SOS by 20 points or more, it doesn't get much bigger than that. This is at least the biggest non-con game since we played Butler in Maui in 2012.

Which we lost, got a three seed, and made the E8 anyway.

You can fret about the SOS.  I'm going to watch the games.

[4everwarriors]

Rankin’s no matta, hey?

[TinyTimsLittleBrother]

brewcity, what if Marquette had beaten Butler in 2012 and lost the next two games?  Let's assume that Texas beat Chaminade, so their next two games would have been losses to UNC and Texas.  How much different would MU's SOS have been?  What impact would that have had on the RPI?  The seeding?

[brewcity77]

brewcity, what if Marquette had beaten Butler in 2012 and lost the next two games?  Let's assume that Texas beat Chaminade, so their next two games would have been losses to UNC and Texas.  How much different would MU's SOS have been?  What impact would that have had on the RPI?  The seeding?

Texas that year ended up near where USC (our final opponent) did so it was negligible. Texas would have helped minorly as they had a slightly better record. UNC would have made a big difference. We had a great schedule that year due to the Big East with 6 ranked teams along the way and being in a league where 8 teams made the NCAAs, 2 made the NIT, and one only missed (UConn) due to a postseason ban. Had we played UNC, I'm guessing we'd have been top-5. It would've been a massive move from that woeful Mississippi State team that we treated like a cupcake.

Here's the other thing. The assumption that we are better off going 2-1 with a loss to VCU means cheering for a loss to VCU. I think that's ridiculous for many reasons.

First, I'm not cheering for Marquette to lose to anyone anywhere ever. I want to beat VCU.

Second, I want to play good teams because getting a win against a top-10 Wichita State team and possibly a hated Notre Dame team would mean far more than playing Cal and LSU teams that will likely be terrible. I'd rather play the good teams and lose entertaining games than pound the high-major equivalent of Little Sisters of the Poor.

Third, the obvious SOS and tournament ramifications. This game legitimately changes the number of wins we need to get into the NCAA Tournament. Beat VCU and it honestly becomes easier to get in, and not just because we beat VCU but because we will be measured against a tougher SOS. It's either beat VCU and win 17/29 remaining games, or lose to VCU and win 20/29 games.

So in essence, I want Marquette to win against VCU, I want Marquette to play against good teams, and I want Marquette to have the best possible path to make the NCAA Tournament. The only argument with that is if you don't want one or more of those three things, in which case I'd wonder what you were doing posting on a Marquette board.