Non Conference RPI

[muguru]

Hadn't really looked at it that closely until now...but MU has BY FAR the lowest non conference RPI(113) (no one else is even close really)of any team projected to get in the field. Kind of odd because their Non conference SOS has risen significantly lately(up to 190). I wonder what the committee is going to think of that??

For comparison's sake, the next closest non conference RPI to MU is Iowa st at 95..that's quite the gap.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Hadn't really looked at it that closely until now...but MU has BY FAR the lowest non conference RPI(113) (no one else is even close really)of any team projected to get in the field. Kind of odd because their Non conference SOS has risen significantly lately(up to 190). I wonder what the committee is going to think of that??

Honest question. Has the ever been part of the selection criteria?

[muguru]

Honest question. Has the ever been part of the selection criteria?

I don't know if it has specifically been part of the equation...but every year you hear the committee say "who have you played and who have you beaten"?? And then qualified by the part of your schedule you can control...meaning non conference. That MAY hurt them a bit. I guess it depends on how much the committee wants to look at it. But then, you also(if your the committee), understand that Howard and Pitt were scheduled for MU. then again, by that criteria, Vanderbilt was too. I just happened to be looking at that column(non conf RPI) On warren Nolan, and that number for MU honestly stood out like a sore thumb unfortunately.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

But hey our basketball office is doing a great job of scheduling.

Job 1.  Fill schedule of 31 allowed games :  F
Job 2.  A schedule conducive to making ncaas : F

Two F s for our basketball office

I guess we are making progress tho, it was even worse last year

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

But hey our basketball office is doing a great job of scheduling.

Job 1.  Fill schedule of 31 allowed games :  F
Job 2.  A schedule conducive to making ncaas : F

Two F s for our basketball office

I guess we are making progress tho, it was even worse last year

But we're gonna make the NCAA tourney. So what's your point here?

[Vander Blue Man Group]

But hey our basketball office is doing a great job of scheduling.

Job 1.  Fill schedule of 31 allowed games :  F
Job 2.  A schedule conducive to making ncaas : F

Two F s for our basketball office

I guess we are making progress tho, it was even worse last year

When we make the NCAAs Sunday how does your analysis change?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

But hey our basketball office is doing a great job of scheduling.

Job 1.  Fill schedule of 31 allowed games :  F
Job 2.  A schedule conducive to making ncaas : F

Two F s for our basketball office

I guess we are making progress tho, it was even worse last year

I applaud our office for not chasing $$$ at the expense of our tournament chances. If they had scheduled another game it would have been against an RPI sinking cupcake.

Utah backed out of our agreed home and home. Not many options left to schedule. We made the right choice.

[tower912]

But hey our basketball office is doing a great job of scheduling.

Job 1.  Fill schedule of 31 allowed games :  F
Job 2.  A schedule conducive to making ncaas : F

Two F s for our basketball office

I guess we are making progress tho, it was even worse last year

Stunned you didn't find a way to blame this on Luke.    You've blamed everything else on him. 

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

If we make ncaas this year its not because of the schedule it is despite it.  I challenge people defending our schedule to show me where a poorer job was done.  Literally one of the worst schedules in the power 6.

Last year the ooc sos war so horrid that with 20 wins were were not even mentioned as a bubble team for the ncaas and even worse were not even an nit team due to it too. 

[Smokin' Jae]

The scheduling has been bad guys. There is no way to put a spin on this, I told people after last year it wouldn't happen again and it did. Count me disappointed on that end and for the record I have not been disappointed in the overall play of the team or the coaching.

[bradley center bat]

Thank god, MU schedule Fresno State.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I challenge people defending our schedule to show me where a poorer job was done.  Literally one of the worst schedules in the power 6.

UCLA, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Miami (FL), Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Providence, Kansas State, Utah, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, St. John's, NC State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Rutgers, Boston College, Depaul, Missouri, Oregon State.

You'll notice four teams from the Big East, meaning we were in the middle for our own conference.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The scheduling has been bad guys. There is no way to put a spin on this, I told people after last year it wouldn't happen again and it did. Count me disappointed on that end and for the record I have not been disappointed in the overall play of the team or the coaching.

Was it the best schedule ever? No. But it is being blown out proportion.

People forget that we have zero control over the campus games for the Legends Classic. Having Howard on our schedule literally drops our non-conference SOS by 34 points. At that point, we have a decidedly average non-conference SOS.

Plus its not the cupcakes that have sunk us as Brew pointed out. Western Carolina and SIUE were a little worse than expected, but Houston Baptist, Fresno State, and St. Francis have all been better than expected. IUPUI, another game outside our control, was also worse than expected.

The thing that sunk us this year was Vandy, Pitt, Georgia, and Wisconsin all losing more games than they were projected to.

[shoothoops]

Was it the best schedule ever? No. But it is being blown out proportion.

People forget that we have zero control over the campus games for the Legends Classic. Having Howard on our schedule literally drops our non-conference SOS by 34 points. At that point, we have a decidedly average non-conference SOS.

Plus its not the cupcakes that have sunk us as Brew pointed out. Western Carolina and SIUE were a little worse than expected, but Houston Baptist, Fresno State, and St. Francis have all been better than expected. IUPUI, another game outside our control, was also worse than expected.

The thing that sunk us this year was Vandy, Pitt, Georgia, and Wisconsin all losing more games than they were projected to.

You have to account for first year coaches and the inevitable transition that takes place, for part of the explanation.

Take Vandy. They lose two of their best players to early entry NBA. They get a new coach with an entirely new system.  They go from some people prematurely counting them as not a good win for MU.....to now an NCAA tourney team, with 33 RPI,  who, with a win today, can match MU with the same number of RPI top 50 wins.  It takes some time, and often, a lot more time than what they have done. Stallings had to coach a player at Pitt, who, Stallings once coached at Vandy, and transferred to Pitt.  Wisconsin is the one team in that list that in my opinion was less successful so far, than expected. But again, a newer coach in place there.

Vandy benefited from one of the best out of conference schedules in the country. They were always in the mix from a power rating stand point because of heir strong non-conference schedule. They just needed enough wins. They had only two non-conference opponents with an RPI worse than 200.

I would like to see MU tighten up the schedule a bit in the future. Too many RPI opponents in the 200 and 300's. In my opinion Georgia was about what I thought they'd be, and Pitt maybe less so.

[brewcity77]

You have to account for first year coaches and the inevitable transition that takes place, for part of the explanation.

Take Vandy. They lose two of their best players to early entry NBA. They get a new coach with an entirely new system.  They go from some people prematurely counting them as not a good win for MU.....to now an NCAA tourney team, with 33 RPI,  who, with a win today, can match MU with the same number of RPI top 50 wins.  It takes some time, and often, a lot more time than what they have done. Stallings had to coach a player at Pitt, who, Stallings once coached at Vandy, and transferred to Pitt.  Wisconsin is the one team in that list that in my opinion was less successful so far, than expected. But again, a newer coach in place there.

Vandy benefited from one of the best out of conference schedules in the country. They were always in the mix from a power rating stand point because of heir strong non-conference schedule. They just needed enough wins. They had only two non-conference opponents with an RPI worse than 200.

I would like to see MU tighten up the schedule a bit in the future. Too many RPI opponents in the 200 and 300's. In my opinion Georgia was about what I thought they'd be, and Pitt maybe less so.

I don't think you know how scheduling works. Just because they announce the games in May and June doesn't mean the decision to play a team is made then. The negotiations are ongoing and most of these deals are finalized months before they are announced. That's why scheduling news sometimes leaks. These games are made with best guess intentions. Players declaring early (especially from non-NBA factories like Duke and Kentucky), coaching changes, transfers, injuries, none of that can really be accounted for when you are making the schedule. Look again at the teams we played:

• Vanderbilt: Won 20+ in 6 of last 10 seasons, had a 2-year downturn, but Stallings seemed to have them regrouping around talented underclassmen. Failed to meet expectations
  
• Howard: Were expected to win the MEAC behind James Daniel, who missed virtually the entire season with injury. Failed to meet expectations
  
• Michigan: Did just fine. Met expectations
  
• Pittsburgh: Had won 20+ in 9/10 seasons, and 19 in the one outlier. Four senior starters. No way to expect a losing record. Failed to meet expectations
  
• IUPUI: Did okay. Picked 5th in the league but finished 7th. Met expectations
  
• Houston Baptist: Great buy. Picked 5th, finished 2nd. Exceeded expectations
  
• Western Carolina: Lowest win total in over a decade. Failed to meet expectations
  
• Georgia: It could've been worse, but they were picked to finish 4th and ended up 8th in their league. Failed to meet expectations
  
• Fresno State: Did just fine. Met expectations
  
• Wisconsin: This was a senior laden, top-10 team picked to win their league. Coming in 2nd may seem okay, but they capitulated down the stretch and what should've been a 27-28 win team stuttered to 23 before the conference tournament. Failed to meet expectations
  
• St. Francis: Picked 9th, tied for 3rd, were 20 minutes from a NCAA bid before a disastrous second half against Mount St. Mary's. Exceeded expectations
  
• SIUE: Picked 10th, finished 12th. We knew they'd be bad, but that was more about helping Jon Harris out. Failed to meet expectations

So of our 7 buy games/assigned games, 3 failed to meet expectations, 2 met their expectations, and 2 exceeded expectations. Slightly below average. If not for James Daniel, the nation's leading scorer in 2016, missing the entire season that likely looks a lot better.

But then you come to the 5 high-major opponents. Of those, only Michigan met their expectations and none exceeded them. The rest, Vanderbilt, Pitt, Georgia, Wisconsin, all failed to do what you would expect them to do. You can blame that on coaching changes, players leaving early, or Ethan Happ having a terrible run of games, but those teams simply should've been better. Too bad the Utah game fell through, as they were picked 8th in their league and finished 4th. Would've been the one high-major non-con opponent to exceed expectations.

The buy games came out about as you'd hope, but the high major teams were terrible. There were a number of factors, but losing to Michigan (meaning we played Pitt instead of SMU) was a killer as was 4/5 high-majors having uncharacteristically bad seasons. The buy games may not have been great, but they were certainly not the problem.

[TVDirector]

I don't think you know how scheduling works. 

Once upon a time, this is where the thread would take that right turn toward the light of knowledge and righteousness, as Chicos would illuminate us all on how as a 17 year old intern in the athletic department he'd advise the powers that be on critical issues such as this and facilitate decisions that would affect the way scheduling would be approached for years to come. 
Gosh I miss that big lug......

[B. McBannerson]

Hadn't really looked at it that closely until now...but MU has BY FAR the lowest non conference RPI(113) (no one else is even close really)of any team projected to get in the field. Kind of odd because their Non conference SOS has risen significantly lately(up to 190). I wonder what the committee is going to think of that??

For comparison's sake, the next closest non conference RPI to MU is Iowa st at 95..that's quite the gap.

You seem intent in finding a wart wherever possible. Every team has them.  Non conference RPI means far less than SOS.   ESPN last night had us a lock.

Decent RPI.  Solid SOS, better than a number of schools like UCLA, Wichita State, WVU, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, SMU, Purdue.  Top 50 wins.

Those complaining about beating Xavier and Creighton when they had guys down, Creighton is playing for the Big East crown today.  Other schools received wins playing teams hurt, do they penalize Providence, Seton Hall, or schools in other conferences facing the same situations?

[shoothoops]

I don't think you know how scheduling works. Just because they announce the games in May and June doesn't mean the decision to play a team is made then. The negotiations are ongoing and most of these deals are finalized months before they are announced. That's why scheduling news sometimes leaks. These games are made with best guess intentions. Players declaring early (especially from non-NBA factories like Duke and Kentucky), coaching changes, transfers, injuries, none of that can really be accounted for when you are making the schedule. Look again at the teams we played:

• Vanderbilt: Won 20+ in 6 of last 10 seasons, had a 2-year downturn, but Stallings seemed to have them regrouping around talented underclassmen. Failed to meet expectations
  
• Howard: Were expected to win the MEAC behind James Daniel, who missed virtually the entire season with injury. Failed to meet expectations
  
• Michigan: Did just fine. Met expectations
  
• Pittsburgh: Had won 20+ in 9/10 seasons, and 19 in the one outlier. Four senior starters. No way to expect a losing record. Failed to meet expectations
  
• IUPUI: Did okay. Picked 5th in the league but finished 7th. Met expectations
  
• Houston Baptist: Great buy. Picked 5th, finished 2nd. Exceeded expectations
  
• Western Carolina: Lowest win total in over a decade. Failed to meet expectations
  
• Georgia: It could've been worse, but they were picked to finish 4th and ended up 8th in their league. Failed to meet expectations
  
• Fresno State: Did just fine. Met expectations
  
• Wisconsin: This was a senior laden, top-10 team picked to win their league. Coming in 2nd may seem okay, but they capitulated down the stretch and what should've been a 27-28 win team stuttered to 23 before the conference tournament. Failed to meet expectations
  
• St. Francis: Picked 9th, tied for 3rd, were 20 minutes from a NCAA bid before a disastrous second half against Mount St. Mary's. Exceeded expectations
  
• SIUE: Picked 10th, finished 12th. We knew they'd be bad, but that was more about helping Jon Harris out. Failed to meet expectations

So of our 7 buy games/assigned games, 3 failed to meet expectations, 2 met their expectations, and 2 exceeded expectations. Slightly below average. If not for James Daniel, the nation's leading scorer in 2016, missing the entire season that likely looks a lot better.

But then you come to the 5 high-major opponents. Of those, only Michigan met their expectations and none exceeded them. The rest, Vanderbilt, Pitt, Georgia, Wisconsin, all failed to do what you would expect them to do. You can blame that on coaching changes, players leaving early, or Ethan Happ having a terrible run of games, but those teams simply should've been better. Too bad the Utah game fell through, as they were picked 8th in their league and finished 4th. Would've been the one high-major non-con opponent to exceed expectations.

The buy games came out about as you'd hope, but the high major teams were terrible. There were a number of factors, but losing to Michigan (meaning we played Pitt instead of SMU) was a killer as was 4/5 high-majors having uncharacteristically bad seasons. The buy games may not have been great, but they were certainly not the problem.

I don't think you understood my post. Perhaps re-read it again more slowly.

I am well aware how scheduling works. I gave an explanation as to why some things turned out the way they did this year.  In the end, Vandy, Georgia, etc...in my opinion were not far off of expectations of several years prior, especially from power ratings standpoint. And, also in my opinion, there are more moving parts with these types of schools. Vandy has a 33 RPI, Georgia 52.....and their season were about as expected.....whether those expectations were years ago or this year.

The bigger issue for me is when scheduling in advance, do better with the bottom level teams on the schedule. Tighten that up a bit.  MU winning more games helps too. Also, it is more about power ratings of a team and less about finishing slightly better or worse than expectations in league play. Those slight variations of a non-comference opponent do not matter much if those teams are 200's and 300's RPI etc....Schedule a few less 200's and 300's RPi caliber teams is what I am saying.

[B. McBannerson]

If we make ncaas this year its not because of the schedule it is despite it.  I challenge people defending our schedule to show me where a poorer job was done.  Literally one of the worst schedules in the power 6.

Last year the ooc sos war so horrid that with 20 wins were were not even mentioned as a bubble team for the ncaas and even worse were not even an nit team due to it too.

You have been blasting our players, blasting the coach, blasting the administration.  You were wrong about MU reaching #2 ranking in soccer a few years ago.  You are wrong here.  When do you give up and go home for a nap?

[mu_hilltopper]

Great analysis, Brew.

Although .. there's failing to meet expectations, and then there's *failing* to meet expectations.

Like Wisconsin .. it'd be nice to have them top 10, but top 40 isn't materially a big deal. 

It's the RPI 200s that turn out to be 300s that hurt.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Next year's schedule will be vastly improved. MU has the Badgers away against a team in a rebuild. Maui tournament has no cupcake pre-games, with equal level but not elite teams. Georgia and a Gavitt Game at home. Maybe a PAC 12 game on the way to Maui, thanks to Fox, like Utah.

MU will be young next year, especially early season, but has some depth. Would have been better to have Froling available, but still two slots to fill to add skill and experience. Not sure on the Gavitt Games schedule with the BIG starting conference play early.

[brewcity77]

I don't think you understood my post. Perhaps re-read it again more slowly.

I am well aware how scheduling works. I gave an explanation as to why some things turned out the way they did this year.  In the end, Vandy, Georgia, etc...in my opinion were not far off of expectations of several years prior, especially from power ratings standpoint. And, also in my opinion, there are more moving parts with these types of schools. Vandy has a 33 RPI, Georgia 52.....and their season were about as expected.....whether those expectations were years ago or this year.

Vanderbilt and Georgia's RPI rankings have zero impact on our RPI. Absolutely none. Vandy was probably about 4-5 wins off expectations in the regular season. Georgia was 2-3 wins off expectation. It may seem small, but that, along with Wisconsin and Pitt being well off expectations, is huge.

The bigger issue for me is when scheduling in advance, do better with the bottom level teams on the schedule. Tighten that up a bit.  MU winning more games helps too. Also, it is more about power ratings of a team and less about finishing slightly better or worse than expectations in league play. Those slight variations of a non-comference opponent do not matter much if those teams are 200's and 300's RPI etc....Schedule a few less 200's and 300's RPi caliber teams is what I am saying.

Again, the opponent's RPI does not impact your RPI. RPI cares about your opponent's record. You are generally better off playing a team with a winning record and low RPI than a team with a losing record and high RPI. Yes, the higher RPI team will help you more in the "opponents' opponents" factor, but that's a lesser factor than the team's individual record.

The only really bad team scheduled this past year was SIUE and that was because of the Jon Harris connection. Howard and Western Carolina failed miserably to reach expectations. IUPUI, Houston Baptist, St. Francis, Fresno State, they all did fine.

So really, where's the complaint? Because Western Carolina had their worst season in over a decade? Because Howard lost the nation's leading scorer a month before the season started? Because they tried to help out a former Marquette alum at SIUE?

Who should they have not had on the schedule that was on the schedule this year? Everyone plays sub-200 teams. Marquette tried to minimize that this year. Two of the buy-level games that didn't exceed expectations were assigned by the 2K Classic.

Houston Baptist, Fresno State, and St. Francis were all good buys that met or exceeded expectations. SIUE disappointed but we all knew preseason that they weren't there as an RPI boost.

The only game left to complain about was Western Carolina, who had their worst season in recent memory. Is Western Carolina really worth complaining about? Each of the past 8 years, they won at least 13 games. If they reach their minimum of the past 8 years, they are a fine buy opponent. They didn't, but one team is hardly something worth griping about.

[brewcity77]

Next year's schedule will be vastly improved. MU has the Badgers away against a team in a rebuild. Maui tournament has no cupcake pre-games, with equal level but not elite teams. Georgia and a Gavitt Game at home. Maybe a PAC 12 game on the way to Maui, thanks to Fox, like Utah.

MU will be young next year, especially early season, but has some depth. Would have been better to have Froling available, but still two slots to fill to add skill and experience. Not sure on the Gavitt Games schedule with the BIG starting conference play early.

Maui does have one pre-game. This year they had Army, Central Arkansas, Arkansas State, and Chattanooga. Of the 7 teams in Maui, only UConn didn't get a pre-game. After that, just hope you don't get Chaminade (though they are RPI-neutral) on the island. So most likely...

• Maui pre-game (H)
• Gavitt Big 10 team (H)
• Maui: 3 of Cal, LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, VCU, Wichita State (N)
• Georgia (H)
• Wisconsin (A)

So that's 7/13 games that we know about already. My guess is we add one more high-major like you said, either a home-and-home starting on the road or a neutral site game, then have 5 buy opponents. As long as Maui doesn't screw us with a poor opponent (3/4 this year were decent to good) and we do okay on the buy games, we should be fine. Not necessarily great, but fine.

I could see a marquee home-and-home starting on the road, with a return game planned for the opening of the Silk Exotic Entertainment Center.

[brewcity77]

Great analysis, Brew.

Although .. there's failing to meet expectations, and then there's *failing* to meet expectations.

Like Wisconsin .. it'd be nice to have them top 10, but top 40 isn't materially a big deal. 

It's the RPI 200s that turn out to be 300s that hurt.

Thanks, 'topper. Howard was a killer, no doubt. They should've been a 17 win team, instead they couldn't crack double digits. But hard to blame Marquette when they got what looked like, on paper, the best opponent in the 2K assignment field.

Otherwise, really Western Carolina was the only team I can see quibbling over. They lost a lot from last year, and I expected them to have a down season, but their worst season in over a decade without any coaching turnover isn't one I'm going to blame on Broeker. I suppose we could gripe about SIUE, because we knew they'd be bad and maybe you shouldn't do anyone favors, but I can live with that one.

Personally, when it comes to buy games, my hope is they win 12+ games. As long as they're within a few games of .500, you will be fine. We had three stinkers this year, which was far better than years past.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The scheduling has been bad guys. There is no way to put a spin on this, I told people after last year it wouldn't happen again and it did. Count me disappointed on that end and for the record I have not been disappointed in the overall play of the team or the coaching.

This. I am generally really positive all things MU hoops, but we really need to schedule better. End of story.