Dayton (Eeek!)

[brewcity77]

Seriously...if we play in Dayton, which I do not think we will, is it really so bad? That most likely means being on the 11 or 12 seed line. Here are the 8 most likely teams we would see there:

• USC: Mediocre rebounding team, okay offense, defense not much better than ours. Their front line is a load, but they are terrible defending the three.
  
• Vanderbilt: Doubt we see them again, but I don't think any Marquette fan has reason to be afraid of Vanderbilt. Poor offensive rebounders, don't force turnovers (the two things that get us into trouble), and we can definitely outscore them.
  
• Syracuse: This isn't the old Syracuse. They still play zone, but they play slower now. Not at all a good defensive team. I think we'd destroy them from three. 16 of their 18 wins came at home, and their best away win was Clemson. Pretty sure they don't play their home games in Dayton.
  
• Rhode Island: Maybe the scariest team for us to match up with. They defend the three well, have length at a lot of positions, and are good at attacking the rim. But they do foul a ton, so I expect even if they play well, they'd let us stay in the game by putting us on the line.
  
• Kansas State: Terrible at guarding the three and turn it over a lot. Sounds like the kind of team we would dissect.
  
• Illinois State: Their defense might take some time to crack, but other than that one win over Wichita State, their next best win is Loyola-Chicago. I just don't think they can score enough points to keep up with us.
  
• Iowa: They play fast, they like to turn the ball over (on offense), they aren't good on the glass, and 4 of their top 6 players are freshmen. I think we'd beat them by 20+. Giggity.
  
• Illinois: How are they in the discussion? They inexplicably swept Northwestern, but went 0-3 against Rutgers and Penn State. They are freaking terrible.

If we see any of those teams in Dayton, we open at worst as a 2-3 point favorite. Those aren't the types of teams we should be afraid of. Yes, it's still a one-off and anything can happen, but if we end up in Dayton, we most likely play one of those 8 teams, we most likely win, and we most likely are playing on Thursday or Friday anyway.

And if we play in Dayton, when we play Thursday or Friday, it's against a 5 or 6 seed. Seriously, if we got a play-in as an 11 in Dayton, and fed into a 6-seeded Minnesota, Iowa State, or Maryland, I'd be overjoyed. Follow that up with UCLA or Louisville (play zone, we win) as a 3-seed and I think we'd have a decent chance at a Sweet 16.

Is being an 11/12 in Dayton ideal? Maybe not, but if anyone is hoping to play in the second weekend of the tournament, it might be better to start in Dayton than to start in Tulsa or Greensboro as an 8/9 seed.

[MUMountin]

ABD

[🏀]

The biggest issue playing in Dayton is flying in and having to a rent a car. All Enterprise has is second generation Cavalier Coupes.

[wadesworld]

We were also a 3 point favorite against SH yesterday.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

We were also a 3 point favorite against SH yesterday.

This says it all for our team this year.  The spread/potential is not the problem - it's execution.

Surprisingly our record is very good against good teams (KenPom 50 and below). It's our performance against beatable teams vs ranking that is our Achilles heal. 

Anything is progress - personally would prefer Thur/Fri.

[GoldenDieners32]

The only team i would be worried about is Iowa but besides that we can beat all of them

[PGsHeroes32]

I just don't like the risk of not being playing on the real opening day.

But you're right a lot of good match ups.

That said, UL would blow our doors off Idk why the heck you mentioned them as a possible sweet 16 run.

[brewcity77]

I just don't like the risk of not being playing on the real opening day.

But you're right a lot of good match ups.

That said, UL would blow our doors off Idk why the heck you mentioned them as a possible sweet 16 run.

Run zone against Louisville, turn it into a three-point contest, I like our chances. This UL team doesn't intimidate me nearly as much as the teams of the past.

EDIT: And I get the fear of not playing on Thursday/Friday, but I think we would still have a very good chance of playing those days even if we start in Dayton. I think quite a few MU fans underestimate what a difficult scout we are. Offensively, you need to prepare for the best three point shooting team in the country, a team that has 5 legit very good shooters from deep. I think Luke would also be a tough scout as he'll be far more effective against teams that haven't seen him than he is against Big East teams that have learned how to prepare for him. I think Cheatham and Johnson's driving deficiency of only going to one side is mitigated by playing teams that aren't as aware of how they play. Even on defense, we prefer man, but have no problem breaking out a 1-3-1 or even 2-3 zone.

Obviously we would also have short time to scout, but I think very few teams are as versatile on offense as we are. Generally, you focus on taking away 2 or 3 guys, whereas we legitimately have 6 players who could lead us in scoring on any given night, and that's not including Duane or Cheatham. I think we're a tougher out than Marquette fans might realize, and think we are more dangerous on 1-2 days rest than most of the teams we'd be playing against.

[79Warrior]

Run zone against Louisville, turn it into a three-point contest, I like our chances. This UL team doesn't intimidate me nearly as much as the teams of the past.

Not sure what MU team you have been watching but we would have to have an unbelievable game to beat UL. Amazing how fans can get carried away.

[reinko]

The biggest issue playing in Dayton is flying in and having to a rent a car. All Enterprise has is second generation Cavalier Coupes.

Tell me about.  All the cars have a tassel from when the owner graduated high school hanging from the rear view mirror too.  So annoying

[PGsHeroes32]

Run zone against Louisville, turn it into a three-point contest, I like our chances. This UL team doesn't intimidate me nearly as much as the teams of the past.

EDIT: And I get the fear of not playing on Thursday/Friday, but I think we would still have a very good chance of playing those days even if we start in Dayton. I think quite a few MU fans underestimate what a difficult scout we are. Offensively, you need to prepare for the best three point shooting team in the country, a team that has 5 legit very good shooters from deep. I think Luke would also be a tough scout as he'll be far more effective against teams that haven't seen him than he is against Big East teams that have learned how to prepare for him. I think Cheatham and Johnson's driving deficiency of only going to one side is mitigated by playing teams that aren't as aware of how they play. Even on defense, we prefer man, but have no problem breaking out a 1-3-1 or even 2-3 zone.

Obviously we would also have short time to scout, but I think very few teams are as versatile on offense as we are. Generally, you focus on taking away 2 or 3 guys, whereas we legitimately have 6 players who could lead us in scoring on any given night, and that's not including Duane or Cheatham. I think we're a tougher out than Marquette fans might realize, and think we are more dangerous on 1-2 days rest than most of the teams we'd be playing against.

I do completely agree with all that regarding us and being a difficult match up.

But with UL they just have too much size. They would just rebound their misses and we see what length can sometimes do to our offense.

Even in UL loss to Duke yesterday shooting 4-21 from 3 and 55% from the line. They almost won because they are lethal down low.

Just don't see us stopping that.

But let's be honest. If you tell me right now I can get a gurantee round of 32 game against UL...I'll take it.

[GoldenDieners32]

We need to worry about getting in first than we can talk matchups

[Herman Cain]

The upside of playing in Dayton is that Kostas would be able to come to the game. If we do well he can spread the gospel to his younger brother Alexis.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

The biggest issue playing in Dayton is flying in and having to a rent a car. All Enterprise has is second generation Cavalier Coupes.

Just as long as it's red.

[wadesworld]

Run zone against Louisville, turn it into a three-point contest, I like our chances. This UL team doesn't intimidate me nearly as much as the teams of the past.

EDIT: And I get the fear of not playing on Thursday/Friday, but I think we would still have a very good chance of playing those days even if we start in Dayton. I think quite a few MU fans underestimate what a difficult scout we are. Offensively, you need to prepare for the best three point shooting team in the country, a team that has 5 legit very good shooters from deep. I think Luke would also be a tough scout as he'll be far more effective against teams that haven't seen him than he is against Big East teams that have learned how to prepare for him. I think Cheatham and Johnson's driving deficiency of only going to one side is mitigated by playing teams that aren't as aware of how they play. Even on defense, we prefer man, but have no problem breaking out a 1-3-1 or even 2-3 zone.

Obviously we would also have short time to scout, but I think very few teams are as versatile on offense as we are. Generally, you focus on taking away 2 or 3 guys, whereas we legitimately have 6 players who could lead us in scoring on any given night, and that's not including Duane or Cheatham. I think we're a tougher out than Marquette fans might realize, and think we are more dangerous on 1-2 days rest than most of the teams we'd be playing against.

If you think other programs would have trouble figuring out that Cheatham and JJJ only drive in one direction I think you're entirely underestimating how much time and effort is put into major college basketball scouting.  Without any doubt whatsoever there are people in every program that is around the bubble already putting together video of the other teams just in case they end up in Dayton playing against them.  It would take them about an hour tops after the announcement of that matchup to have those things on their scouting report.

[ecompt]

Not sure what MU team you have been watching but we would have to have an unbelievable game to beat UL. Amazing how fans can get carried away.

Louisville would absolutely crush us.

[wadesworld]

We need to worry about getting in first than we can talk matchups

Not really much MU can do at this point.  No games to be played until the Tournament...

[GoldenDieners32]

id love to see us play VT

[Herman Cain]

id love to see us play VT

Ditto

[KampusFoods]

The upside of playing in Dayton is that Kostas would be able to come to the game. If we do well he can spread the gospel to his younger brother Alexis.

This is amazing

[GoldenDieners32]

or UCLA

[Loose Cannon]

The upside of playing in Dayton is that Kostas would be able to come to the game. If we do well he can spread the gospel to his younger brother Alexis.

Keep selling your Papers.

[brewcity77]

id love to see us play VT

Me too. I think we match up really well with Buzz's team.

And while I realize a ton goes into scouting, focusing on JJ and Cheatham driving will be about the 10th thing on the priority sheet. And it's different scouting for what they do versus how teams in the Big East have played against them already multiple times.

[mayfairskatingrink]

We were also a 3 point favorite against SH yesterday.

At the Caesars and Westgate sportsbooks in Vegas, MU was a 3 pt favorite in the morning and by gametime, the line had fallen to MU -1.5, so a ton of big money came in on Seton Hall.

[muguru]

I see your point Brew but they could still be the 11 seed, not in Dayton and have the same 6-3 matchups. That would be the much prefered option, no?