The Committee Has Arrived...

[Benny B]

It's Selection Tuesday, and that means the ten members of the selection committee descend upon Indianapolis today.  So let's go over the generalities of the selection process.  There's a good rundown at http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2016-03-13/march-madness-bracket-how-68-teams-are-selected-division-i however, I'll distill the main points here.

Three special steps to the process: I-Selection, II-Seeding, III-Bracketing.

I-A: Selection (The Initial Ballot)
Sometime over the past 96 hours, all ten members filled out and submitted their Initial Ballot which consists of two columns: first, teams that - irrespective of conference tourney outcomes - should receive an at-large bid (AL) and second, those teams worthy of additional consideration (C).  Members can only list up to 36 teams in the AL column (they can list 20 teams, 10 teams or 1 team if they so choose, albeit improbable), but they can list as many teams as they wish in the C column.  An individual team may be listed in the AL column or the C column but not both.

The ballots are then tallied.  Any team that appears in the AL column on all but two of the eligible ballots* goes into the field, i.e. is in the dance.

*Committee members can neither vote for their own school's team at any time during the selection process nor any team that has an immediate family member on the team, coaching staff or administration.  For example, BYU - whose AD is on the committee - must receive 7 of 9 AL votes while Marquette - with no rep on the committee - needs 8 of 10; but if BYU's coach happens to be the brother of another committee member, then BYU would only need 6 of 8 because both the AD and the brother would not cast votes.  Got it?

All of the other teams who either a) received three votes in either column on the Initial Ballot or b) won/shared a regular-season conference title are placed on the Under Consideration (UC) board.

A team not appearing on either the Field or UC boards can be nominated "from the floor" at any time during selection, in which case a vote is taken and if receiving at least three votes from the committee, the teams is placed on the UC board.

Likewise, any member of the committee may call for a vote at any time to remove a team from the Field or UC boards.  The committee then votes to "keep" or "remove."  If a team receives all but two eligible "remove" votes, they are removed from the UC board (or, if they were already on the field board when the vote was called, moved to the UC board).

I-B: Selection (Balloting)
Once the committee has gathered today, shaken hands, exchanged pleasantries, adjusted the location of the cookie plates so that Janet Cone doesn't get all of the chocolate chip cookies again, they'll start the balloting:  Each committee member lists the 8 best teams from the UC board.  The eight teams who receive the most votes are now listed on a ballot where each committee member now ranks those eight teams, with one point for the best team and eight points for the worst team.  The four teams with the lowest point total are placed into the Field, and the other four teams are held over for the next ballot.

Each member again lists the top eight teams remaining on the UC, except this time, only the four highest vote totals are placed on the ballot (along with the four held over from the last ballot) so that all eight teams can again be ranked.  The four lowest point totals are placed into the field, the remaining four are held over for the next ballot, and the process repeats itself until the field is filled.  (As the number of teams remaining on the UC board dwindles, the committee may only vote/rank six or four teams instead of eight).

Regardless, the last four teams placed onto the Field board (that do not win their conference tourney) are slotted for Dayton. This is significant because it doesn't always mean that the "worst" of the at-large selections go to Dayton... for example, let's say that all ten committee members unanimously agree that Marquette is the 36th best at-large team but disagreed on who is 32nd-35th.  Marquette would appear on each member's initial ballot and therefore would already be in the field before the committee convenes today, and thus, would avoid Dayton.[EDIT - 2017 rules revised so that last four at-large on the seed line go to Dayton, not the last four selected to the field.]

Interesting to note here is that all ballots are SECRET.  Most of the discussion/debate about particular teams revolves around whether a team should be added to or removed from the UC board.  Naturally, any discussion/debate on who actually is placed in the field is minimal early on as the committee simply allows for the ballots to speak for themselves; however, when the committee gets down to filling the last slots in the field, that's when the committee will step up discussion/debate prior to taking a vote.

II. Seeding
Once the selection process has concluded (or nearly concluded), then the seeding begins, which ranks all 68 teams in order (natural seed).  Likewise, this is mostly done through a ballot and rank process; however, this is a much more fluid process where the discussion of RPI, metrics, etc. really comes into play to ensure that teams are ranked in logical order regardless of how the voting plays out (a/k/a "scrubbing" the list).

III. Bracketing
The final phase, bracketing, is where all the rules and guidelines discussed ad nauseum (avoid rematches, split top three from conferences into separate regions, be geographically conscious, etc.) come into play.  As such, there's little time (or need) to discuss resumes at that point.

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Rumor has it that by the end of Selection Tuesday, approx. half of the at-large slots in the field have been filled with the remainder to be determined as Championship Week plays out...  sometime tomorrow or Thursday, the committee will start building the seed list (even as the remaining at-large teams are being selected), and by Saturday morning, they will start the bracketing (while seeding is still in process).  All of this culminates in a whirlwind on Sunday, which is why tonight and tomorrow is probably your best chance to catch the committee members down at the Slippery Noodle.

[Windyplayer]

This is awesome. Thank you.

[muwarrior69]

I got a headache just reading all that. Why don't they just put in all the stats and let a computer pick the at large berths.

[Windyplayer]

I got a headache just reading all that. Why don't they just put in all the stats and let a computer pick the at large berths.

Why don't we just automate all jobs and make the human species obsolete?

[DUNKS45]

great info Benny, thanks.

[Oldgym]

I got a headache just reading all that. Why don't they just put in all the stats and let a computer pick the at large berths.

I see what you're doing here.

[bilsu]

What are the odds that MU gets 8 out 10 votes in the AL category?

[Babybluejeans]

Is it possible Marquette gets in on first pass during the AL process? Kenpom says they're #28, BPI says #29. But there are also some "locks" that are ranked behind us in those metrics.

[Benny B]

What are the odds that MU gets 8 out 10 votes in the AL category?

Hard to say... keep in mind the initial ballot doesn't contemplate conference tourney results, so assuming no surprises in the nine or so conferences with teams likely to be an at-large even if they lose, the committee is really only voting for 27 actual at-large teams on the initial ballot.  It really depends on how much weight the committee members give to KenPom, BPI, t50 wins, quality wins (where MU is strong) vs. RPI/SOS, margin of victory, opponent injuries, etc.

One thought on how to handicap: according to ESPN's Bubble Watch, there are 35 "locks," and the next group of six "should-be's" include: Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, Syracuse, Mich State, and Vanderbilt; if you assume the "locks" each take up a spot in the AL column, there's one spot for the next six teams.  So is Marquette better than the other five in the opinion of at least 8 committee members?

The counter-argument here is to keep in mind that while the initial ballots contain 36 teams, the rumor is that less than half of the field is determined by the initial ballot, i.e. there appears to be unanimity at the top of the initial ballot, but a lack of it at the bottom.  Even if that isn't true, members aren't supposed to vote for the top 36 teams on the initial ballot, they vote for up to 36 teams they think unequivocally deserve an at-large bid (if they don't win conference tourney)... contrary to what I implied earlier (for purposes of demonstration) regarding Marquette being the 36th best team, if three members happen to believe there are only 15 teams that merit selection to the field without any debate, that means no more than 15 teams are getting in on the first ballot.

I don't have any idea what the tendencies are on the initial ballot... Do members typically list fewer than 36 on the initial ballot, erring to the side of committee discussion/debate (after all, isn't that the purpose of the committee)?  Do members consistently name 36 teams (to make the selection step as efficient as possible)?  Does everyone have their own thoughts or methodology regarding the initial ballot?  Who knows, but if I were a gambling man, I would say it's highly unlikely that MU gets in on the initial ballot, and not likely to be in the field for a couple days... even if conventional wisdom says Thursday vs. SHU won't affect MU's bid, the committee may still want to see what happens before putting MU on the ballot.

[brewcity77]

Not this year as I haven't had the time to get a list ready, but if anyone was interested in doing a mock selection committee in the future to simulate this, I'd definitely be down. I think it'd be a lot of fun.

That may be because I'm a huge nerd...

[Benny B]

Not this year as I haven't had the time to get a list ready, but if anyone was interested in doing a mock selection committee in the future to simulate this, I'd definitely be down. I think it'd be a lot of fun.

That may be because I'm a huge nerd...

Awesome idea.  There's nothing I'd love more than to be in a room on Selection Weekend with stats on my laptop and TV screens showing every game in progress.  Can we get MU to sponsor it somehow, even if it meant simply giving us meeting space at the AMU or something... I could sell my wife on having to participate if it had the appearance of an "official Marquette" function; otherwise, I'm going to get the "eye roll and the look."

Also, provided we ignore just one of the NCAA's rules: the prohibition of alcohol.

[muwarrior69]

.....but none of us could select MU according to the rules. Maybe we could get some UW folks to do it. On second thought that was a dumb idea.

[barfolomew]

I could sell my wife

I would think that would be a bit awkward with the relatives at holiday gatherings and such.

[MomofMUltiples]

Benny,

The other thing you have to consider is that a number of those on the "lock" list (one per conference) will get the automatic bid, and thus be moved off the at-large bid list. As each one of those happens, Marquette will move further up the list, and other "should be in" or "deserve consideration" teams will be added to the list.

[Benny B]

One inconsistency I've noticed between the NCAA procedure and my summary is the selection of teams to Dayton.

NCAA Website:

The last four at-large teams on the overall seed list, as well as teams seeded 65 through 68, will be paired to compete in the First Four games on Tuesday and Wednesday following the announcement of the field

From the 2015 Media Mock Committee:
http://thebiglead.com/2015/02/16/ncaa-mock-selection-exercise-shows-potential-pitfalls-for-this-years-committee/

Here's something I didn't know until going through this process. The last four teams selected in the field by the voting process of moving teams from "Under Consideration" to "At-Large" are locked in to Dayton. End of story, no further debate.

From the 2014-15 NCAA Principals and Procedures:

The last four at-large teams selected to the field, as well as teams seeded 65 through 68, will be paired to compete in first-round games on Tuesday and Wednesday following the announcement of the field.

So my bad, the rules changed since the last media mock.  I'll update the OP above.

[Benny B]

Benny,

The other thing you have to consider is that a number of those on the "lock" list (one per conference) will get the automatic bid, and thus be moved off the at-large bid list.

Very true; however, none of those conference tournaments have even started at the time the initial ballot is submitted; so up to 36 AL teams are being listed as though there are no auto-bids whatsoever.  As tourneys play out, then yes, MU's position will adjust; however, the question at hand was in regards to MU's chances on the initial ballot.

As each one of those happens, Marquette will move further up the list, and other "should be in" or "deserve consideration" teams will be added to the list.

Not necessarily... depends on how many teams are already in the field and how many remain on the UC list.  For example, if you 6 at-large spots open and 30 teams still on the UC list, it's unlikely at that point that the committee is going to bog down the last few selections by adding (and considering) more teams.  Conversely, if there are 15 at-large spots open and 18 teams on the UC list, the committee is probably going to want to add a few teams worth considering to ensure that nobody is being shut out without merit.  The underlying goal of the selection phase is to ensure that every team that could reasonably be that 36th team is considered at some point during the week (i.e. nobody is overlooked).

[mu03eng]

Not this year as I haven't had the time to get a list ready, but if anyone was interested in doing a mock selection committee in the future to simulate this, I'd definitely be down. I think it'd be a lot of fun.

That may be because I'm a huge nerd...

I'd be in for sure, it'd make an interesting blog/podcast....but I would demand access to beer as part of this event

[We R Final Four]

Awesome idea.  There's nothing I'd love more than to be in a room on Selection Weekend with stats on my laptop and TV screens showing every game in progress.  Can we get MU to sponsor it somehow, even if it meant simply giving us meeting space at the AMU or something... I could sell my wife on having to participate if it had the appearance of an "official Marquette" function; otherwise, I'm going to get the "eye roll and the look."

Also, provided we ignore just one of the NCAA's rules: the prohibition of alcohol.

I know that look.

[MUMountin]

I wanted to bump this because of the angst coming from some after our loss yesterday. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but by now (and maybe even by the time our game happened yesterday), aren't most of the teams already selected for the tourney?  My impression was that the committee has most of the selection (but not seeding) done by now, and only seeding remained--I thought I saw an article previously posted that discussed the general time frames; that by the weekend, all that really remained was the seeding; and that the conference tournaments actually have little impact in determining which teams make it on or off the bubble.  In other words, the results of our game yesterday may not have even mattered in terms of selection, as we may already have been literally selected by the committee to be in. 

Someone more knowledgeable about this stuff--am I remembering this correctly?

[We R Final Four]

We won yesterday? Whats the big deal....we are in!

[MUMountin]

We won yesterday? Whats the big deal....we are in!

Ha, wishful thinking, I guess.  Corrected.

[Benny B]

Selection (step 1) doesn't necessarily need to be complete for Seeding (step 2) to start.  For all we know, the committee has selected 30 of the 36 at-large teams, is waiting to see what happens today through Sunday to select the final 6, but has already started seeding the 30.

Right now, steps 2 and 3 probably look like a 1,000-piece Lego project that my 7 y/o spent five minutes building before he got bored.  As the picture becomes clearer on Step 1, Step 2 will get scrubbed and Step 3 can begin to take shape.  Or, the committee may have the 36 at-large teams (plus a number of "alternatives" depending on final outcomes) already selected and seeded, and all they're doing for the next couple days is adjusting their seed order.  Heck, they might be building two different brackets right now that will be decided by a single game on Sunday afternoon.  Frankly, any one of our guesses is as good as another.

But it's a pretty safe bet that unless you're within a spot or two from the cutoff, that you've been selected to the field at this point.  You probably already have a position on the seed list as well (which will likely be adjusted up or down depending on the remaining game outcomes).

EDIT: Frankly, where the committee is in the process depends highly upon how many teams are on the bubble right now and how many teams can change their destiny in the games that remain, which is probably more limited than everyone thinks.  This is me speculating, but I would find it hard to believe that - once selected - the committee is going to drop someone (either down or out) for a bad performance in their conference tourney (unless it was really bad and there was an extraordinary circumstance like an injury).  Maybe this wouldn't be the case in other years with a dozen mid- and low-majors in the at-large field, but just about everyone under consideration right now is a known quantity, so I wouldn't expect that to change much; however, if you're on the bubble right now (i.e. you haven't yet been selected), by nature of the balloting process, you can certainly still play yourself in or out of the tournament based on your own performance or others around you may bump you in or out.  [Remember, nobody is selected individually to the field (i.e. the committee doesn't take a "yea or nay" vote on a single team to determine if they're in the field or not)... teams are always selected to the field from a ballot containing at least 3-4 other teams.]  Once you're in the field, you can play yourself up the seed list, but you're probably not going play yourself down... in other words, if MU is in the field and on the seed list, wherever they are on the seed list right now, that's likely the ceiling; the only way you get dropped on the seed list is if someone else leapfrogs you.

[MUMountin]

Selection (step 1) doesn't necessarily need to be complete for Seeding (step 2) to start.  For all we know, the committee has selected 30 of the 36 at-large teams, is waiting to see what happens today through Sunday to select the final 6, but has already started seeding the 30.

Right now, steps 2 and 3 probably look like a 1,000-piece Lego project that my 7 y/o spent five minutes building before he got bored.  As the picture becomes clearer on Step 1, Step 2 will get scrubbed and Step 3 can begin to take shape.  Or, the committee may have the 36 at-large teams (plus a number of "alternatives" depending on final outcomes) already selected and seeded, and all they're doing for the next couple days is adjusting their seed order.  Heck, they might be building two different brackets right now that will be decided by a single game on Sunday afternoon.  Frankly, any one of our guesses is as good as another.

But it's a pretty safe bet that unless you're within a spot or two from the cutoff, that you've been selected to the field at this point.  You probably already have a position on the seed list as well (which will likely be adjusted up or down depending on the remaining game outcomes).

Thanks, Benny--this is what I thought. 

[dw3dw3dw3]

Adding to this... per https://twitter.com/DavidWorlock

They selected 32 teams last night.

They are now selecting/discussing the next batch. I assume they will be discussing MU as this is our general range.

David Worlock‏ @DavidWorlock  1h1 hour ago
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Committee is back to selecting teams. While this next group is likely not playing in the First Four, we could be approaching that cut line.
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David Worlock‏ @DavidWorlock  14h14 hours ago
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We've broken for the night, which means time to watch games while eating ice cream. 32 at-large teams in, 22 teams still under consideration

[brewcity77]

Not impossible that we are in that batch of 22. Other than RPI, we stack up favorably in every other category to be right around that top-32.