17 Teams for 12 Spots

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'm far from an expert, but as I look at the bubble, I think there are realistically 17 teams left that could play their way in or out of the tournament, with about 12 spots left to fill. That means, without bracket busters, you need to not finish in the bottom five of this group.

Marquette is actually in really good position. They are currently in the middle of that group of 17. Because they have no bad teams left on their schedule, they won't lose ground on the bubble because of a loss. The teams behind them must win significant games in order to pass them. Compare that to a team like USC. They have a very friendly schedule with games against Washington and Washington State. But if they lose either of them, they will drop like a rock.

Here are the 17 remaining bubble teams with their remaining games:

Xavier: MARQ, @DPL
Arkansas: @FLA, UGA
Northwestern: MICH, PUR
USC: WSU, WASH
Providence: @SJU
Seton Hall: @BUT
Marquette: @X, CREI
Middle Tennessee State: FIU, FAU
Syracuse: GT
California: @UTAH, @COLO
Vanderbilt: FLA
Illinois State: N/A
Current Cut Off
Rhode Island: @STJO, DAV
Wake Forest: LOU, @VT
Kansas State: @TCU, TTU
Illinois: MSU, @RUT
Houston: @Cincy, ECU

The green represents games that boost your profile if you win, but don't hurt you much if you lose. The red represents games that don't boost your profile much if you win, and can really hurt you if you lose.

There are some teams that are still considered bubbly that were left off this list because of their remaining schedules. Michigan, Michigan State, Wichita State are all considered "on the bubble" but with only green games on their schedule, they can't really play themselves off it. On the other side, TCU, Georgia and Georgia Tech are considered in the "Next Four Out" but they don't have enough meat left on their schedule to play themselves in.

Marquette is an a position where they can start looking behind them. Their good end of year schedule means that all the teams behind them need to be damn near perfect. If they lose a red game, they are done. If they run out of green games, they won't be able to pass Marquette (i.e. I don't think there is any situation where Illinois can pass Marquette, even if they win out and we lose out).

What this doesn't factor in is conference tournaments. I am of the opinion that conference tournaments matter a lot less to the committee than others think. I think they are mostly used for tiebreakers in seeding and extreme circumstances, like losing to a cellar dweller, or knocking off the regular season champions. This is where Marquette could get in trouble. That 7th place game is a possibility and a loss to Depaul would be a death sentence. Conference tournaments also produce bid stealers, which could shrink the number of at larges available. Pray for tons of chalk in the conference tourneys this year.

In conclusion, Marquette is in a better position than many might think. Their last two games are low risk, high reward match-ups, while those around them are facing more low risk, low reward teams. I will be watching the bubble and conference tourneys way too closely over the next few weeks. So I say let's just win our next two games and the BET to remove all stress from life for the next few weeks!

[MDMU04]

MU moved up two spots on the 11 seed line on today's bracket matrix update, and is in two more brackets than they were yesterday as well...112 out of 124 projections.

Win and in.

[🏀]

Great summary, thanks for the effort you put into this.

Now, let all the cliche posters get after it.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Great post.  Couldn't agree more.

Just curious what you used to rank these teams? Doesn't look like it was bracket matrix or Lunardi's bracket.  Also, assuming Middle Tennesee wins the conference USA tournament like they're supposed to (fingers crossed), they won't be in this grouping either. 

[GoldenDieners32]

Illinois state does not get a at large. They haven't beat anyone

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Great post.  Couldn't agree more.

Just curious what you used to rank these teams? Doesn't look like it was bracket matrix or Lunardi's bracket.  Also, assuming Middle Tennesee wins the conference USA tournament like they're supposed to (fingers crossed), they won't be in this grouping either.

It was based on yesterday's bracket matrix.

Middle Tennessee still takes up a spot. If they lose in the CUSA tourney that means a bid stealer is going to remove one of the at larges. I hate it but I could see them getting in over us if they win out and lose in the CUSA championship to one of the better CUSA teams like LA Tech, Rice, or Old Dominion.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Illinois state does not get a at large. They haven't beat anyone

Certainly possible. I would be upset if they got a bid over us, even if we lose out. But if no one behind them can win the games they need to....then they will back into an at large berth.

[MerrittsMustache]

Certainly possible. I would be upset if they got a bid over us, even if we lose out. But if no one behind them can win the games they need to....then they will back into an at large berth.

ISU needs to win the MVC tourney. I'd be shocked if they didn't yet still got in over big name, high major programs.

Also, Cuse is in. They finished last season 19-13 and losing 5 of 6 but still got a 10-seed. Throw in that Boeheim strategically said that he may end up retiring after this season and there's no way the committee leaves them out.

[GoldenDieners32]

ISU needs to win the MVC tourney. I'd be shocked if they didn't yet still got in over big name, high major programs.

Also, Cuse is in. They finished last season 19-13 and losing 5 of 6 but still got a 10-seed. Throw in that Boeheim strategically said that he may end up retiring after this season and there's no way the committee leaves them out.

Today's game you can call a play in game for us we really need this one

[BM1090]

Today's game you can call a play in game for us we really need this one

Depends on what you mean. If we win, we are likely in. If we lose but win Saturday, still likely in.

Sure as hell would like to get one in the bag though

[GoldenDieners32]

Depends on what you mean. If we win, we are likely in. If we lose but win Saturday, still likely in.

Sure as hell would like to get one in the bag though

I think we can go 2-0 down the stretch we definitely need one in the BET

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think we can go 2-0 down the stretch we definitely need one in the BET

Not really.  If we go 2-0, we don't need anything in the BET.  1-1, a BET win would be nice, but probably not necessary. 

[barfolomew]

Nice summary TAMU.
This also illustrates that we should be even bigger Michigan and Georgia fans than we already were.

[BM1090]

Nice summary TAMU.
This also illustrates that we should be even bigger Michigan and Georgia fans than we already were.

Michigan, yes absolutely. Georgia, yes....to a point.

[forgetful]

I think if we win 1, we are in.

[amen426]

Don't quite see how Georgia Tech is not listed on here.

They were Lunardi's last team out on the 2/27. Then they beat Pitt last night. And they still have Syracuse on the schedule (at home), along with a game or two in the ACC Tournament.

I get that Bracket Matrix doesn't have them in the first four out, but that site is flawed. It only considers how many brackets you are in. Doens't consider where you stand on the first four out on peoples brackets. Maybe most people have them as the 69th-70th team right now -- but a win over Syracuse would put them in closer to 60-70 brackets.

As much as I like Bracket Matrix, I'd rather just focus on Lunardi's Bracket; his top 8 out; then use Bracket Matrix to find any other outlier teams that weren't included in his 8 out..

[rocket surgeon]

root for all the red teams

[BM1090]

Don't quite see how Georgia Tech is not listed on here.

They were Lunardi's last team out on the 2/27. Then they beat Pitt last night. And they still have Syracuse on the schedule (at home), along with a game or two in the ACC Tournament.

I get that Bracket Matrix doesn't have them in the first four out, but that site is flawed. It only considers how many brackets you are in. Doens't consider where you stand on the first four out on peoples brackets. Maybe most people have them as the 69th-70th team right now -- but a win over Syracuse would put them in closer to 60-70 brackets.

As much as I like Bracket Matrix, I'd rather just focus on Lunardi's Bracket; his top 8 out; then use Bracket Matrix to find any other outlier teams that weren't included in his 8 out..

Someone mentioned earlier, and I tend to agree...there is no way Georgia Tech gets in over us if we win 1/2 this week. Their RPI is worse than ours. Their advanced ratings are worse than ours. They have one really good win that compares to our best (UNC/NOVA) They have good 2nd and 3rd wins that compare to ours (FSU/ND vs. CU/X). They could go 9-9 in a very good conference.

But in non-conference they lost to Ohio, Tennesee, Georgia and Penn State. Worse non-con plus worse computer numbers all-around....you can't really make a good argument to include them over us if we finish 9-9 or better.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Don't quite see how Georgia Tech is not listed on here.

They were Lunardi's last team out on the 2/27. Then they beat Pitt last night. And they still have Syracuse on the schedule (at home), along with a game or two in the ACC Tournament.

I get that Bracket Matrix doesn't have them in the first four out, but that site is flawed. It only considers how many brackets you are in. Doens't consider where you stand on the first four out on peoples brackets. Maybe most people have them as the 69th-70th team right now -- but a win over Syracuse would put them in closer to 60-70 brackets.

As much as I like Bracket Matrix, I'd rather just focus on Lunardi's Bracket; his top 8 out; then use Bracket Matrix to find any other outlier teams that weren't included in his 8 out..

If Georgia Tech loses @ Cuse on Saturday (which they likely will), they will need to be the first team ever to make the field at 15 loses.  I do think it may happen this year, but I don't know if Ga Tech is the team.  Their computer numbers are awful. 

I agree they are a team we should monitor, but unless they beat Cuse on Sunday, they're in trouble.   Same could be said for Cuse (they also have 13 losses, would have 15 w/ a loss on Sunday and in ACC tourney), but its Cuse.  I think they're in.

[amen426]

Oh wow, I must have been looking at last years RPI (67) for Georgia Tech.

Didn't realize they were at 91... carry on.

[connie]

Nice summary.  Can we please just win tonight so I don't have to worry about Saturday?  Please?

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Need a win from the Johnnies and Butler. We can still finish third in the BE if those two things happen and we win out, and theres no way in hell the committee leaves the third place team in the Big East out of the tournament.

[vogue65]

If Georgia Tech loses @ Cuse on Saturday (which they likely will), they will need to be the first team ever to make the field at 15 loses.  I do think it may happen this year, but I don't know if Ga Tech is the team.  Their computer numbers are awful. 

I agree they are a team we should monitor, but unless they beat Cuse on Sunday, they're in trouble.   Same could be said for Cuse (they also have 13 losses, would have 15 w/ a loss on Sunday and in ACC tourney), but its Cuse.  I think they're in.

Correct, it is a big business and therefore all about the $$$$ and Syracuse brings lots of intetest.

[MU82]

Certainly possible. I would be upset if they got a bid over us, even if we lose out. But if no one behind them can win the games they need to....then they will back into an at large berth.

Thanks for the great OP, TAMU. Lots of interesting info there.

I won't go ballistic if ISU gets a bid over us. We had plenty of chances to distance ourselves from them. Our lads had everything in their control in numerous games this season but couldn't quite get it done. That happens, and I'm not "mad" about it. Just stating a fact. If we take care of business in even a couple of them, we're already in the field and we're writing about what we need to do to improve our seed.

And despite some unlucky breaks (and some poor play down the stretch sometimes), we STILL control our own destiny. Win these last 2 and we're in. I'll be watching from Hawaii!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Today's game you can call a play in game for us we really need this one

This is exactly the mindset that my original post was contradicting. It is not a play in game. Wet could theoretically lose out and still make the tournament.