NCAA Tourney Watch - RPI Historical Reference

[MikeDeanesDarkGlasses]

The worst RPI of any team that didn't win their conf. tourney to make the NCAA tournament was a ranking of #72 by Syracuse last year.  MU is at 69 approx right now which means they've got to win out in the regular season to ensure a bid.  Historically, bubble teams have RPI's ranging from 50s - 70s to give context.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

If you actually paid any attention to college basketball, you would realize its one of the softest bubbles in NCAA history. 10 conference wins gets us in.

[dinger]

The worst RPI of any team that didn't win their conf. tourney to make the NCAA tournament was a ranking of #72 by Syracuse last year.  MU is at 69 approx right now which means they've got to win out in the regular season to ensure a bid.  Historically, bubble teams have RPI's ranging from 50s - 70s to give context.

[Tugg Speedman]

The worst RPI of any team that didn't win their conf. tourney to make the NCAA tournament was a ranking of #72 by Syracuse last year.  MU is at 69 approx right now which means they've got to win out in the regular season to ensure a bid.  Historically, bubble teams have RPI's ranging from 50s - 70s to give context.

Last year Syracuse had the worst AT-LARGE RPI ever.  They were a 10 seed ... and they also made the Final 4.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

1 win gets them to at least 68, which is a better RPI than Cuse had last year. And the committee cares less and less about raw RPI every year. Thankfully for MU, the more forward looking metrics all have MU in the low 30s, and frankly those probably means just as much if not more than RPI.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Last year Syracuse had the worst AT-LARGE RPI ever.  They were a 10 seed ... and they also made the Final 4.

I've wondered if Cuses run last season will encourage a move away from RPI. No idea if there's a connection

[MU82]

Besides, these are the days of Brexit and Comrade Twitler and Cubbies and cats at effen Westminster. Up is down and down is up.

Given this, our best chance is to go 0-3 and then lose our BET opener by 40!

[MikeDeanesDarkGlasses]

If you actually paid any attention to college basketball, you would realize its one of the softest bubbles in NCAA history. 10 conference wins gets us in.

Almost as soft as your takes.  Charmin here please!!!!

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Almost as soft as your takes.  Charmin here please!!!!

Except he is correct.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Almost as soft as your takes.  Charmin here please!!!!

Did you sh*t yourself?

[MikeDeanesDarkGlasses]

Except he is correct.

A soft bubble only means more volatility on the fringes.  MU isn't in yet and how could they be a guaranteed seed right now?   Historically, they're on the outside looking in right now.  My point is that they're going to have to win out to make it. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

A soft bubble only means more volatility on the fringes.  MU isn't in yet and how could they be a guaranteed seed right now?   Historically, they're on the outside looking in right now.  My point is that they're going to have to win out to make it.

109 out of 117 bracketologists say Marquette is in right now. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

[Herman Cain]

A soft bubble only means more volatility on the fringes.  MU isn't in yet and how could they be a guaranteed seed right now?   Historically, they're on the outside looking in right now.  My point is that they're going to have to win out to make it.

I agree with this analysis.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I agree with this analysis.

I think you and the Dank One don't understand how RPI works. You have to remember that RPI isn't just about winning and losing. It is about the quality of teams you play. For example, when California plays Oregon State tomorrow, their RPI will go down, no matter the outcome. If they win, it will drop 5 spots. If they lose, it will drop 18 spots. On the other hand, when Creighton plays at Villanova on Saturday, their RPI will go up, no matter what. If they lose, it will go up by 1. If they win it will go up by 5. With three quality opponents left, two on the road, it is almost impossible for Marquette's RPI to drop. I used RPI Wizard to run some scenarios:

If we go 0-3, our RPI will only drop 13 spots to 81. Definitely out of the tourney but in the NIT barring a ton of autobids.
If we go 1-2, our RPI WILL STAY THE SAME AT 68. So win one, and our RPI is low enough to meet DarkGoggles' threshold of 50s to 70s. Combined with 4 to 7 (depending on how our opponents finish) top 50 wins and a weak bubble, that is a solid chance at a bid.
If we go 2-1, our RPI will be 54-58 depending on which two we beat. We are dancing, end of story (Unless we somehow meet Depaul in the BET and lose and even then I think we still make it).
If we go 3-0, our RPI will be 47. We are looking at a seed in the 7-9 range.

Now RPI Wizard is not perfect. It assumes all the other matches will come up chalk. Everything could go sideways in the last two weeks. But it is not inaccurate enough to make your assertion that we need to win out correct.

[vogue65]

If you actually paid any attention to college basketball, you would realize its one of the softest bubbles in NCAA history. 10 conference wins gets us in.

Why do you have to say, "If you actually paid any attention to college basketball"?  Aren't you better than that?

[bilsu]

If you actually paid any attention to college basketball, you would realize its one of the softest bubbles in NCAA history. 10 conference wins gets us in.

I understand what you are saying, but we really do not know how soft the bubble is until the final few games are played. Some teams will step up and it is likely some teams will play themselves out. At this point there is a huge difference between MU finishing 2-1 and MU finishing 1-2.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

A soft bubble only means more volatility on the fringes.  MU isn't in yet and how could they be a guaranteed seed right now?   Historically, they're on the outside looking in right now.  My point is that they're going to have to win out to make it.

And our point is that you're wrong.

Please please please spend some time looking at the field and list off to me the 68 teams and their resume that somehow wouldn't include a 10-8 Big East team. You'll quickly understand that finding more deserving teams will be, well impossible. And, remember, RPI is one tool. Also consider Kenpom, top 50 wins, sagrin, strength of record, road and neutral record, conference record, etc. You'll quickly figure out that MU is safely in the field in all those metrics besides RPI, which as TAMU explained, really only needs one W to improve to where MU needs it, and 2 to be very safe.

That's just the facts.

[slack00]

109 out of 117 bracketologists say Marquette is in right now. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

The same site shows over half of brackets have Syracuse in with a 76 RPI.  By itself, RPI isn't a great predictor anymore of who makes the tournament.

[CreanLover]

Why are people criticizing the OP, when it was a very valid point? We all want to make the tourney!

[mu03eng]

Guys don't fight #TheNarrative from Sir Deane

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Why are people criticizing the OP, when it was a very valid point? We all want to make the tourney!

Because they don't need to win out to get a bid, therefore it isn't a valid point.  In fact, they very well may not even need to win 2/3 to get in!

[GoldenDieners32]

Last year Syracuse had the worst AT-LARGE RPI ever.  They were a 10 seed ... and they also made the Final 4.

That means if we are a 10 seed we are making the tourney

[KampusFoods]

That means if we are a 10 seed we are making the tourney

Big, if true

[MU82]

Why are people criticizing the OP, when it was a very valid point? We all want to make the tourney!

Because he's wrong, and facts still do matter (even the non-alternative kind).

Just read TAMU's post - not because he's a wonderful man (though he is) but because he employs actual facts. 2-1, we are a lock.

#actualfacts

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Why are people criticizing the OP, when it was a very valid point? We all want to make the tourney!

Because it is a mathematically invalid point.