RPI v. Kenpom

[GGGG]

Reatime RPI has Marquette at 72 right now.

Kenpom has us at 35.

Can someone explain how these could be so far off?  Does this type of disparity happen often?

[Jay Bee]

Reatime RPI has Marquette at 72 right now.

Kenpom has us at 35.

Can someone explain how these could be so far off?  Does this type of disparity happen often?

They're different. This type of disparity is very normal. I looked last week for teams who had a 40 or greater difference between the two and there were approximately 50 of 351 teams with such a difference.. so, a 37 difference is not unusual.

RPI is barbaric and stupid. It cares about nothing other than your adjusted win %, your opponents' record and your opponents' opponents' record. That's it. It seeks to measure what has happened.

KenPom's AdjEM , while a proxy for what has happened, is a predictive tool that seeks to predict what may happen in the immediate future.

Both have faults. The RPI has no redeeming value; KenPom does.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

A big part of it comes down to cupcake scheduling. We have 5 non con opponents at 250+ in RPI. Two of those were 335+. Replace 3 or 4 of those with teams in the 150-200 range, and I bet you'd see RPI jump at least 20 spots. We really need to do a better job on this. This year was an improvement over last year, but not much. 

[muguru]

A big part of it comes down to cupcake scheduling. We have 5 non con opponents at 250+ in RPI. Two of those were 335+. Replace 3 or 4 of those with teams in the 150-200 range, and inner you'd see RPI jump at least 20 spots. We really need to do a better job on this. This year was an improvement over last year, but not much.

To be fair though..i believe a lot of those cupcakes underperformed from what MU was expecting. Not entirely their(MU's) fault.

[GGGG]

Thank you.

[Jay Bee]

Important to remember - more so nowadays than in the past - is that the Committee is supposed to be selected the "best teams"

Example:
We play a crappy school who is 10-20 in games not against us and beat them by 25.
School B plays a crappy school who is 12-18 in games not against School B and School B beats them by 1.

Based on the facts above, who is the better team, us or School B? RPI (high-level here.. details can be important) says School B is better because the team they beat has a better win-loss record. KenPom says let's look at the data a little more... how good was your offense against the crappy school and how good is their defense? How good was your def... and how good is their offense usually? What happened in the game? The answer may be the better team is us.. or school B

[jsglow]

A big part of it comes down to cupcake scheduling. We have 5 non con opponents at 250+ in RPI. Two of those were 335+. Replace 3 or 4 of those with teams in the 150-200 range, and I bet you'd see RPI jump at least 20 spots. We really need to do a better job on this. This year was an improvement over last year, but not much.

How many 150-200 do buy games?  I'll venture not too many.

[MarquetteDano]

Just to.add,  RPI doesnt care about winning margin either. Blowing out Vandy counts more for Pomeroy than RPI which doesnt care between a one point win vs. A blowout.

We also played some good teams within a reasonable margin in a loss where Pomeroy would not drop us as much where again RPI a loss is a loss.

[Jay Bee]

How many 150-200 do buy games?  I'll venture not too many.

You're mistaken

[wadesworld]

Isn't the selection committee only going away from the focus on RPI starting next season? I thought this year had the same criteria as the past.

[g0lden3agle]

Isn't the selection committee only going away from the focus on RPI starting next season? I thought this year had the same criteria as the past.

Doesn't matter either way. Only Tuesday matters.

[Jay Bee]

Isn't the selection committee only going away from the focus on RPI starting next season? I thought this year had the same criteria as the past.

No. The shift toward other metrics has been going on for several years. The over-reliance (and perhaps altogether) on RPI should go away for the 2018 tourney. Go back ~5 years and the committee didn't look at as many metrics and other information.. they've been doing a better job of it in recent years.

[wadesworld]

Doesn't matter either way. Only Tuesday matters.

Huh?

No. The shift toward other metrics has been going on for several years. The over-reliance (and perhaps altogether) on RPI should go away for the 2018 tourney. Go back ~5 years and the committee didn't look at as many metrics and other information.. they've been doing a better job of it in recent years.

Gotcha. Thanks.

[4everwarriors]

Wear does da secret scrimmage factor in, hey?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

How many 150-200 do buy games?  I'll venture not too many.

Uhhh...tons. Plenty of top 100s do too each year.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Doesn't matter either way. Only Tuesday matters.

Lol well done

[wadesworld]

Lol well done

It would've been...had it made even the slightest bit of sense.  Unfortunately, it didn't.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

It would've been...had it made even the slightest bit of sense.  Unfortunately, it didn't.

[jsglow]

Uhhh...tons. Plenty of top 100s do too each year.

Color me informed.  So we could schedule somebody like Illinois State?  And then how does a UWM or a UW-GB get the balls to ask us for a 3 for 1?  Why would we EVER go to their gym, not that we will?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Color me informed.  So we could schedule somebody like Illinois State?  And then how does a UWM or a UW-GB get the balls to ask us for a 3 for 1?  Why would we EVER go to their gym, not that we will?

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html

Plenty of options. Other teams find a way to be smart about it. It's not rocket science. Take a look:


http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html

You'll obviously get a few duds each season, but they need to be minimized.

[MU82]

No. The shift toward other metrics has been going on for several years. The over-reliance (and perhaps altogether) on RPI should go away for the 2018 tourney. Go back ~5 years and the committee didn't look at as many metrics and other information.. they've been doing a better job of it in recent years.

They look at FT percentage now, right?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It would've been...had it made even the slightest bit of sense.  Unfortunately, it didn't.

I chuckled

[brewcity77]

I chuckled

+2

It was very well played.

As far as this year's cupcakes, ooft. Howard was well below expectations. Western Carolina was expected to take a step back, but I'm not sure anyone expected there to be a cliff behind them. IUPUI was supposed to be a Summit League contender. SIUE we knew would be bad, but not this bad.

Really, only St Francis has met/exceeded expectations. Back in October, the cupcakes looked solid, but it's one of those "best laid plans" type of things. MU did well, but too many of the teams we scheduled did not. You hope to break even on those, this year not so much.

[TallTitan34]

Doesn't matter either way. Only Tuesday matters.

Hahahahahaha.

[Newsdreams]

They look at FT percentage now, right?

Trolling JB, trolling JB!