The Dark One Returneth: Wojo Report Card - A Failure

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Both final rankings - so flawed to the extent that the Buzz teams won the games they needed to win to improve their final ranking. 

I agree we were at 30 a week ago....the issue is the converse of what I said about the old teams.

Look - at the end of the day my point is if we thought we were having heart-attacks back then about 'team bubble watch' - they were different times and on a different spectrum.

We play competitively over the next 5 games and this debate lowers to a different decibel   

[Class71]

OK dude.

If you want to live your life by cliches that any two-bit motivational speaker can spew out as long as the check doesn't bounce, that's fine by me.  But really that's all they are.

Apparently you have had a difficult time. That is regretable. I wish you all the best. Sure we do not always win, sometimes it feels like we never win but in reality there are only four alternatives 1) give up, 2) go through the motions, 3) give it your best or 4) cheat. The outcome maybe the same but you do control the choice. Different people choose different courses. Choose what you wish. I only find three acceptable for me and I assume four is unacceptable to most so that does not leave many other options.

[Lennys Tap]

In February 2011 we lost a home game to St. John's in late February.  There were plenty of questions raised at that time about how good a coach Buzz was and if he could coach defense.  If Scoop had a better search function, I could dig up plenty of posts that would say that.

We went on to make the NCAA tournament and the S16 after upsetting Syracuse in the Round of 32.

Sultan - I'm not saying there weren't games here and there where even normal fans questioned Buzz and his abilities. That's fair and it goes with the territory. But, in general, except for the perennially pissed off, Scoop was (for good reason) a more optimistic place back then.

[g0lden3agle]

But weren't those the final rankings after the tournament?  Or was it pre-tournament?

I would like to know what our ranking was at around this time in February 2011.

As far as I can tell KenPom has only started logging game to game changes in a team's ranking since 2011:

Year           11-Feb                Final
2017   35 (42 after loss)       ???
2016   104                            97
2015   109                            93
2014   57 (49 after win)        68
2013   28 (30 after loss)       26
2012   21 ( 20 after win)       18
2011   27                              26

[GGGG]

As far as I can tell KenPom has only started logging game to game changes in a team's ranking since 2011:

Year           11-Feb                Final
2017   35 (42 after loss)       ???
2016   104                            97
2015   109                            93
2014   57 (49 after win)        68
2013   28 (30 after loss)       26
2012   21 ( 20 after win)       18
2011   27                              26

OK thank you.  Nevermind my theory then.

[brewcity77]

I would like to know what our ranking was at around this time in February 2011.

After the St. John's loss, we fell to #33 in Pomeroy.

As far as Scoop then, there was both criticism of Buzz and those that supported him. I supported him, and also support Wojo.

I think what's happened is Scoop has become reactionary to what Buzz left us with. When he took over, we had the quality remnants Crean left. It made for an easier transition, and Buzz did a great job getting into the 2010 tournament. From there, he patched together JUCOs and kept us rolling. There was no letdown.

We were optimistic because we were riding a wave of success. Buzz never had to rebuild, he just sustained. However he didn't leave us in the same state Crean did.

Wojo came to a program on the heels of missing the tournament. We didn't have the Amigos and Lazar as upperclassmen, we had Derrick, Steve, and Juan. It was a disaster, and despite improvement the year after we still got on a three year NCAA-less streak.

The pessimism here comes from years of coming up short. We finally get some optimism (Creighton & Nova) only for the comedown and instead of reacting in a sane, "respect the process" manner like many did during the Buzz years while riding that wave of success, we get the negativity that lack of success breeds.

Buzz's 2011 defense may not have been this bad, but it was his worst ranking at Marquette. And that was with five of the six top players in terms of minutes going on to play in the NBA, and four of those five were upperclassmen.

In terms of how these coaches started, Buzz was hired on third base with the bases loaded and a .400 hitter at the plate facing a 3-0 count. Wojo was hired in the hole with 2 outs and the pitcher in the batters box ahead of him. Buzz made the most of his situation and was able to sustain that success, but he was also the reason the bottom fell out and Wojo is where he is now. Maybe Wojo equals or exceeds Buzz's success, maybe he never gets there, but I think he deserves the chance regardless.

[4everwarriors]

I'll get crushed for saying this but oh well..i'd LOVE to see TC come back if he were let go at IU. He'd bring the program back.

[GGGG]

For fun, I went back and looked at all of the coaching changes in 2014 and 2015 to see if anyone else hired may have been an obviously better choice for Marquette.  Not sure I see one.  Some observations...

2014:

Cuonzo Martin:  This could end up being the choice Marquette should have made.  Was in the NCAAs last year and is a 10th seed this year based on Bracket Matrix.  We will see if he can sustain it.

Bruce Pearl:  Zero chance Marquette would have looked at him.  He hasn't been tearing it up yet at Auburn.


2015:

Steve Prohm:  Doing well at Iowa State, but is it based on Hoiberg's leftovers?  What will happen into the future.

Will Wade:  Shaka's former assistant at VCU is doing well back there after a good couple years at Chattanooga.  At what point do we attribute VCU's success to VCU though given what has happened to Grant and Capel and considering Shaka isn't really off to a great start at Texas?

Bob Hurley:  Year two at ASU and sub-.500 both years.

Rick Barnes:  Probably not a realistic choice for MU.  Solid coach.

Ben Howland:  Brought up before.  Good coach but long term fit?  Pretty mediocre for MSU.

[Lennys Tap]

In terms of how these coaches started, Buzz was hired on third base with the bases loaded and a .400 hitter at the plate facing a 3-0 count. Wojo was hired in the hole with 2 outs and the pitcher in the batters box ahead of him. Buzz made the most of his situation and was able to sustain that success, but he was also the reason the bottom fell out and Wojo is where he is now. Maybe Wojo equals or exceeds Buzz's success, maybe he never gets there, but I think he deserves the chance regardless.

Over the top hyperbole regarding year one.

From year two on, garden variety total BS. In year two  Buzz had one starter and two reserves leftover from Crean. In year three he had nobody - IOW, a total rebuild. In year two, Wojo had Duane, JJJ and Luke. Still has them in year three. So year two was similar and year three Wojo had much more left over. The facts may not be happy/pleasant but they are the facts.

[Marcus92]

I actually love it when posters point to Collins as a comparative.  Collins, like Wojo - a Coach K/Duke disciple - is in year four of his tenure (Wojo is in year three).  In each of the four years at Northwestern, Collins has improved the team both in terms of skill and talent, but also wins.  14, 15, 20 and now 19 (with surely more to come).  They are a tournament team in year four.  Wojo, like Collins, has improved the team in terms of overall skill and talent and improved the wins from year one to year two.  While we only have 15 wins right now, and looking like we may not reach 20 overall wins, next year will be the true indictment as Wojo as a head coach and program leader. 

With the exception to Duane, next year's team will be entirely composed of kids he recruited and has developed.  There will be no excuses next year if the team cannot compete in the Big East for a tournament spot.  If we are in the same spot next year, then things will get hot - but not right now. 

There's still significant basketball left to be played, including the Big East tournament.  We are fully capable of competing with anyone on any given night.  The name of the game is consistency, and we are struggling with that.  We need to hit a run to close out the year, and I support Wojo, our kids and our program to do that. 

Let's go beat X on Saturday.

I had the exact same thought on the comparison to Collins — who's was 20-34 in Big Ten play and didn't make the postseason in his first three seasons, but is now fielding one of the best teams in the conference.

Until a coach has proven they can succeed at the highest level, a lot of fans assume they can't. Progress over time is meaningless, an excuse. Results right now are all that matter.

[muguru]

guru, whats your honest to god, gut feeling? Did this team under-peform the past 3 weeks, or did they just get lucky as h3ll against creighton and Nova?

I think its the latter, and the nova game exposed us.

Look..the reality is..after Nova they played Providence at home and SJU..two games they absolutely should have won. Period. They had NEVER lost to PC in Milwaukee and that was with worse MU teams and much better PC teams. Regardless of how this season ends..i will still look back at that PC game and go WTF? You lost..to Providence at home? When that happened i knew they might be in some trouble.

[Badgerhater]

Look..the reality is..after Nova they played Providence at home and SJU..two games they absolutely should have won. Period. They had NEVER lost to PC in Milwaukee and that was with worse MU teams and much better PC teams. Regardless of how this season ends..i will still look back at that PC game and go WTF? You lost..to Providence at home? When that happened i knew they might be in some trouble.

The only loss worse at home to Providence is any loss to DePaul.

[Golden Avalanche]

Look..the reality is..after Nova they played Providence at home and SJU..two games they absolutely should have won. Period. They had NEVER lost to PC in Milwaukee and that was with worse MU teams and much better PC teams. Regardless of how this season ends..i will still look back at that PC game and go WTF? You lost..to Providence at home? When that happened i knew they might be in some trouble.

Jerry Palm of CBS Sports has PC projected in the Tournament as of yesterday (2/13).

Is it that much of a "WTF?" to lose to a projected NCAA Tournament team at home? I mean, surely losing to a PC team that one "bracketologist" thinks is worthy of a berth is better then our typical "WTF?" loss against DePaul?

[muguru]

Jerry Palm of CBS Sports has PC projected in the Tournament as of yesterday (2/13).

Is it that much of a "WTF?" to lose to a projected NCAA Tournament team at home? I mean, surely losing to a PC team that one "bracketologist" thinks is worthy of a berth is better then our typical "WTF?" loss against DePaul?

Not much better...DuhPaul, PC..Not much difference to me.

[GGGG]

Not much better...DuhPaul, PC..Not much difference to me.

???  Providence is 60 in KenPom.  Depaul is 191.

There is a significant difference.

[Badgerhater]

???  Providence is 60 in KenPom.  Depaul is 191.

There is a significant difference.

The difference is that losing to PC with a KenPom 60 at the DonutHole is not a horrible loss.  Losing to them at home when they are tied for second to last in the conference is a bad loss.

[GGGG]

The difference is that losing to PC with a KenPom 60 at the DonutHole is not a horrible loss.  Losing to them at home when they are tied for second to last in the conference is a bad loss.

I'm not saying it wasn't a bad loss, but it is much more understandable than losing to DePaul would be.

[Golden Avalanche]

Not much better...DuhPaul, PC..Not much difference to me.

You find no difference losing to a team that is in NCAA Tournament consideration then losing to a team that is 1-12 in the conference?

It's that simple, huh? A loss is a loss, no matter the level of competition.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

In year two  Buzz had one starter and two reserves leftover from Crean. In year three he had nobody - IOW, a total rebuild. In year two, Wojo had Duane, JJJ and Luke. Still has them in year three. So year two was similar and year three Wojo had much more left over. The facts may not be happy/pleasant but they are the facts.

Don't necessarily disagree, but I don't think you can call something a total rebuild when you have two years to prepare for it.

[EaglesNest]

For fun, I went back and looked at all of the coaching changes in 2014 and 2015 to see if anyone else hired may have been an obviously better choice for Marquette.  Not sure I see one.  Some observations...

2014:

Cuonzo Martin:  This could end up being the choice Marquette should have made.  Was in the NCAAs last year and is a 10th seed this year based on Bracket Matrix.  We will see if he can sustain it.

Bruce Pearl:  Zero chance Marquette would have looked at him.  He hasn't been tearing it up yet at Auburn.


2015:

Steve Prohm:  Doing well at Iowa State, but is it based on Hoiberg's leftovers?  What will happen into the future.

Will Wade:  Shaka's former assistant at VCU is doing well back there after a good couple years at Chattanooga.  At what point do we attribute VCU's success to VCU though given what has happened to Grant and Capel and considering Shaka isn't really off to a great start at Texas?

Bob Hurley:  Year two at ASU and sub-.500 both years.

Rick Barnes:  Probably not a realistic choice for MU.  Solid coach.

Ben Howland:  Brought up before.  Good coach but long term fit?  Pretty mediocre for MSU.

Cuonzo Martin had a great recruiting class last year and almost got Swanigan on top of it.

[muguru]

I still think if you let it be known you're willing to make someone one of CBB's highest paid coaches..you'd get interest in the MU job from names you may not have thought possible. Money talks.

[Lennys Tap]

Don't necessarily disagree, but I don't think you can call something a total rebuild when you have two years to prepare for it.

??? So Wojo's in total rebuild mode in year three with two starters and a key reserve as holdovers but Buzz wasn't because he had two years to prepare for it? Hasn't Wojo also had two years to prepare?

[EaglesNest]

I'm interested to see if Archie Miller leaves Dayton at the end of the season.

[Goose]

Madtown

Is that you?

[GGGG]

??? So Wojo's in total rebuild mode in year three with two starters and a key reserve as holdovers but Buzz wasn't because he had two years to prepare for it? Hasn't Wojo also had two years to prepare?

I might be missing something, but who said that Wojo's in "total rebuild mode" this year?