Lipstick on a pig

[goldeneagle91114]

This place continues to provide me with the good laughs. Watching the mood swing of the last 18 days has been great entertainment. Thank you all for the generosity.

go 5 and 3 to start league play and beat Creighton and Nova and i would expect people to be really excited (especially considering we have have beat Hall the first time, and not lost to Butler on the road, had the potential to be 7 and 1)

go 1 and 4 against the bottom half of the conference after the start mentioned above and i can see why people are pissed.

We appear to be headed in the wrong direction. like a 1-5 the rest of the way, direction.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

the team needs to with 3 or 4 of the next 6 to make the tournament. They are more likely to go 1 and 5 down the stretch.

Xavier is good and i don't see us beating them
We needed 100 points to beat Creighton the game after they lost Watson, they are much better now
Georgetown is not the team we faced at the beginning of Big East Play
We have lost to providence... at home
St. Johns beat us handily because they are more athletic

Please explain where you think 3 or 4 wins will come from.

I don't know right now.  But I think we just as easily go 4-2 as 2-4, and I think 3-3 is likely.  And, because I pay close attention to the bubble because I am CBB junkie, I am well aware of how weak the bubble is.  Even after our loss last night, all the prognosticators who have updated STILL have us in the field.  Obviously we'll fall out if we go 2-4 or worse, but I honestly think we'll have a shot at Dayton at 9-9, and perhaps be safe from the first 4 in Dayton if we win some games in the BET. 

If I had to guess to on the next 6, I'd say: L @ Gtown, L vs. X, W vs. SJU, W @ PC, L @ X, W vs. Creighton. (Man will this place be hell if we drop our next 2)..  Most every game is a 50/50 shot from here on out, outside of SJU who I think we handle on our home court.  Thing we have going for us is Luke seems to have turned a corner, and we're going to shoot better than we did last nights in most games, and we still almost beat the 2nd best team in the BE. 

Don't get me wrong, I am as frustrated as you are. We were in excellent shape following the Nova game, and we've given 90% of that goodwill back, but I will continue to say, that win is like gold.  So long as we get to 9-9, we got a shot.  Right now, I don't blame you for thinking 9-9 is going to be tough.     

go 5 and 3 to start league play and beat Creighton and Nova and i would expect people to be really excited (especially considering we have have beat Hall the first time, and not lost to Butler on the road, had the potential to be 7 and 1)

go 1 and 4 against the bottom half of the conference after the start mentioned above and i can see why people are pissed.

We appear to be headed in the wrong direction. like a 1-5 the rest of the way, direction.

It was 1-3 since Nova (really 1-2 versus the "bottom" because in no way is Butler bottom of the conference)..

[Marcus92]

I don't know. Good? Looking like average at best. And, no, this team is not mediocre defensively. They are bad.

The next 6 games are big for Wojo. If he goes 2-4 down the stretch (very possible) and finishes 8-10, is that progress?

MU is 19th in the country in points per game (82.9) and FG% (48.7), both good for 2nd in the Big East. We're 1st nationally in 3-point percentage (42.4) and 6th in FT% (78.0). According to Ken Pomeroy, we're 6th in effective field goal percentage (57.4) and 9th in adjusted offensive efficiency (121.9).

All of those statistics are in the 94th percentile of the NCAA's 351 Division I teams. If that's not the definition of a great offensive team, I don't know what is.

Similarly, KenPom ranks Marquette 166th for adjusted defensive efficiency (104.9), which is pretty much exactly at the 50th percentile — in other words, mediocre (defined as "of only ordinary or moderate quality; neither good nor bad; barely adequate").

We'll see how we finish down the stretch. My advice is not to overreact to recent poor performances, the same way fans should have tempered their optimism following great performances against Creighton and Villanova. That's called recency bias, and doesn't necessarily reflect the current reality or predict the future with any accuracy.

[79Warrior]

I call St. John's and Providence bad.

Pretty sure they feel the same way about us.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We appear to be headed in the wrong direction. like a 1-5 the rest of the way, direction.

When will fans learn that there is no such thing as direction? Each game is a new test. It doesn't matter how you played the game before.

[wadesworld]

When will fans learn that there is no such thing as direction? Each game is a new test. It doesn't matter how you played the game before.

Momentum is a huge thing in sports.

[Golden Avalanche]

Momentum is a huge thing in sports.

Considering Marquette lost three of four games after gaining momentum beating Creighton and Nova, it may not be that huge when dealing with college kids.

[GoldenDieners32]

Are players have to want to win. It hasn't looked like we want to win. Also we need to play with the same energy we had against Creighton and Nova except against every team

[wadesworld]

Considering Marquette lost three of four games after gaining momentum beating Creighton and Nova, it may not be that huge when dealing with college kids.

Momentum tends to change.  Marquette got some momentum by taking advantage of the fact that Creighton was dealing with a major change to their lineup.  They then went on and beat Nova and celebrated like they were going to go on and just put the jersey on and win games.  Hangover game against Providence and it's been all down hill since.

[frozena pizza]

I'm getting a bit tired of people saying that our guys aren't playing hard and have no heart.  I would bet that these kids are passionate about winning and working very hard every day trying to win every game.  The problem is that the other team wants it just as much and desire alone gets you nothing.  In fact I think sometimes they want it so bad it can lead to stupid fouls or ill-advised shots because they are being overly aggressive.  With experience comes poise and learning to stick to a game plan even under pressure.

[wadesworld]

I'm getting a bit tired of people saying that our guys aren't playing hard and have no heart.  I would bet that these kids are passionate about winning and working very hard every day trying to win every game.  The problem is that the other team wants it just as much and desire alone gets you nothing.  In fact I think sometimes they want it so bad it can lead to stupid fouls or ill-advised shots because they are being overly aggressive.  With experience comes poise and learning to stick to a game plan even under pressure.

Exactly.  It's not a lack of want.  It's a lack of knowing how.  And until you get experience doing it consistently, it's going to be an uphill battle to do so.

[CTWarrior]

I'm getting a bit tired of people saying that our guys aren't playing hard and have no heart.  I would bet that these kids are passionate about winning and working very hard every day trying to win every game.  The problem is that the other team wants it just as much and desire alone gets you nothing.  In fact I think sometimes they want it so bad it can lead to stupid fouls or ill-advised shots because they are being overly aggressive.  With experience comes poise and learning to stick to a game plan even under pressure.

I agree.  With the amigos and under Buzz we usually had guys who were quick and strong.  Because of that they got more than their share of 50/50 balls, tough rebounds, etc.  Our current guys are neither particularly nor particularly big and strong.  I think what sometimes looks like indifference is really just lack of physical tools.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Momentum is a huge thing in sports.

In individual games yes. Not over a series of games.

[keefe]

Maybe this is not our year.
Everyone wants it to be.
Did we expect to be in the Dance?
I was hopeful but measured in my expectations.
Overall we are better than three years ago.
Could it be better if we had hired Smart?
Reality is a fickle beast.
Everything hinges on the Big East Tournament.

[wadesworld]

Maybe this is not our year.
Everyone wants it to be.
Did we expect to be in the Dance?
I was hopeful but measured in my expectations.
Overall we are better than three years ago.
Could it be better if we had hired Smart?
Reality is a fickle beast.
Everything hinges on the Big East Tournament.

The guy who took a former coach's team to an NCAA Tournament his first year and is now 10-14 at Texas?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

We are not to the point to where everything hinges on the BE tournament.  In fact, we could drop the next two (@GT and vs. X), and everything STILL wouldn't hinge on the BE tournament (yet). 

[keefe]

The guy who took a former coach's team to an NCAA Tournament his first year and is now 10-14 at Texas?

You misread what I wrote.

[Badgerhater]

If the team does not finish .500 in conference it does not deserve to go anywhere.  The only caveat is if MU goes 8-10 and wins two in the tourney, then it has a shot at the last four in.

[GoldenDieners32]

I agree.  With the amigos and under Buzz we usually had guys who were quick and strong.  Because of that they got more than their share of 50/50 balls, tough rebounds, etc.  Our current guys are neither particularly nor particularly big and strong.  I think what sometimes looks like indifference is really just lack of physical tools.

We need to be able to grab those 50/50 balls

[GoldenDieners32]

If the team does not finish .500 in conference it does not deserve to go anywhere.  The only caveat is if MU goes 8-10 and wins two in the tourney, then it has a shot at the last four in.

Bubble is too weak

[GGGG]

Momentum tends to change.  Marquette got some momentum by taking advantage of the fact that Creighton was dealing with a major change to their lineup.  They then went on and beat Nova and celebrated like they were going to go on and just put the jersey on and win games.  Hangover game against Providence and it's been all down hill since.

Saying "momentum is a huge thing in sports" but that "it tends to change" are kinda incompatible statements.

If it is a huge thing one would think it doesn't change so easily.

[wadesworld]

Saying "momentum is a huge thing in sports" but that "it tends to change" are kinda incompatible statements.

If it is a huge thing one would think it doesn't change so easily.

That's exactly what momentum is.  Once something gets moving in one direction, it catches speed quickly.  Of course if a team starts 4-0 that doesn't mean momentum has started and look out, they're not losing all year.

Take UCONN's 2011 last National Title.  17-2 (positive momentum) to start the year.  Run into a tough stretch and lose 7 out of 11 games (negative momentum) to close out the regular season.  Get a nice "fix me" game against DePaul to open the BE Tournament and bam, 11 straight wins to win the BET and National Title.

Take the Bucks.  2-10 since opening the season 20-18.  Sorry, but I don't think the Bucks are giving up 72 points in a half to a bad 76ers team without their 2 best offensive players if they're playing the way they were for the first 30 games of the season.  They have some horrible momentum going right now.

Look at the Packers year.  4-2 to 4-6 to 10-6.

Teams get in funks.  Teams get hot.  One game can shift momentum and take you from a horrible rut to a great run.  Or vice versa.  That's what momentum is, and it happens in sports all the time.

[Lennys Tap]

MU is 19th in the country in points per game (82.9) and FG% (48.7), both good for 2nd in the Big East. We're 1st nationally in 3-point percentage (42.4) and 6th in FT% (78.0). According to Ken Pomeroy, we're 6th in effective field goal percentage (57.4) and 9th in adjusted offensive efficiency (121.9).

All of those statistics are in the 94th percentile of the NCAA's 351 Division I teams. If that's not the definition of a great offensive team, I don't know what is.

Similarly, KenPom ranks Marquette 166th for adjusted defensive efficiency (104.9), which is pretty much exactly at the 50th percentile — in other words, mediocre (defined as "of only ordinary or moderate quality; neither good nor bad; barely adequate").

Counting all 351 division 1 teams in your analysis is silly. The 150 or so "cupcake teams" need to be taken out of the equation for any real conclusions to be drawn.

19th out of 200 "non cupcakes" is very good. 166th out of the same 200 is very bad, far from mediocre.

Very good and very bad. That's Marquette this year.

[wadesworld]

Counting all 351 division 1 teams in your analysis is silly. The 150 or so "cupcake teams" need to be taken out of the equation for any real conclusions to be drawn.

19th out of 200 "non cupcakes" is very good. 166th out of the same 200 is very bad, far from mediocre.

Very good and very bad. That's Marquette this year.

Why? The cupcakes are playing other like cupcakes more often than not. If we played UWM's schedule our defensive numbers would skyrocket.

[Stretchdeltsig]

My thinking is changing about the Big East.  It is a very toxic conference with the teams killing each other.  Perhaps Marquette should play in an easier conference like the Big Ten.  Most of the Big Ten teams are a joke this year.