How to get to 10-8

[MUBigDance]

OK, Seton Hall is done for the year...we missed out chance to steal one away.

How do we get to 10-8 now?? ...i.e. Big Dance

Even if we sweep the lower 4 going forward STJ,DP,PV,GT (Not easy!)..
that's 9 wins.
Who do we beat?
Butler at home is looking better.
Villanova and Creighton, I don't know? too tough.
Not sure what to make of Xavier?

2 home wins over top 4 we can do 
And a loss against the bottom 4 we can do also 

so I see 10-8.

Any thoughts on how we get there?

P.S. I'm glad its tough to get a tourney bid...when it was 32, it was too exclusive...but now you still have to be a very decent team to get a bid.  We need to be good.

[Aughnanure]

Rest of schedule. Shows how big it was to get the win last night (and also what a bummer it was to blow the first SH game).

Likely lose the 3 after DePaul, but then a decent run in February with Prov-StJ-DePaul with a potential to upset Butler at home. Then back out to Georgetown, who could be reeling. Beat DePaul to go to 3-2. Lose the next 3 to hit 3-5. Then a potential run where MU could win 4-5 of the next 5 and be sitting at 7-6 or 8-5 with games against StJ and Providence still coming.

DePaul
@#12 Butler
@#8 Creighton
#3 Villanova
Providence
St John's
@DePaul
#12 Butler
@Georgetown
#15 Xavier
St John's
@Providence
@#15 Xavier
#8 Creighton

[Tugg Speedman]

Rest of schedule. Shows how big it was to get the win last night (and also what a bummer it was to blow the first SH game).

Likely lose the 3 after DePaul, but then a decent run in February with Prov-StJ-DePaul with a potential to upset Butler at home. Then back out to Georgetown, who could be reeling. Beat DePaul to go to 3-2. Lose the next 3 to hit 3-5. Then a potential run where MU could win 4-5 of the next 5 and be sitting at 7-6 or 8-5 with games against StJ and Providence still coming.

DePaul
@#12 Butler
@#8 Creighton
#3 Villanova
Providence
St John's
@DePaul
#12 Butler
@Georgetown
#15 Xavier
St John's
@Providence
@#15 Xavier
#8 Creighton

Starting on January 24 this is our next 8 games

Providence
St John's
@DePaul
#12 Butler
@Georgetown
#15 Xavier
St John's
@Providence

Beat Depaul with weekend, win 6 of 8 above and that gets us to 9-9. 

Need to steal one to get to 10-8.  Hopefully we catch a team suffering through the winter flu bug.

[brewcity77]

I still view the league in three tiers. Here's how I see it the rest of the way:

Tier 3: DePaul, St. John's, Providence

My expectation is 6-0. SJU and PC away could both be tough, but if we're a tourney team, these are the types of teams we have to beat no matter where we play. The team can't overlook these games, because they definitely can't afford to slip up.

Tier 2: Georgetown, Seton Hall, Xavier

Need to go 1-2 at worst. Done with SHU and got the easy one with GT out of the way. I don't expect a win at Cintas, where XU has only lost once in the past two seasons, but we need to get one of either GT on the road (doable) or Xavier at home (also doable).

Tier 1: Butler, Creighton, Villanova

Need to go 1-4 in these games. I still believe we can beat 'Nova at home, but MU fans should be bracing for a 3-game losing streak after we beat DePaul on Saturday (because that's absolute must win if we're a tourney team) because on paper, the two most likely will either be Butler or Creighton at home. If we come into the final game sitting at 9-8 in league, that's going to be a very tense affair with Creighton. Essentially a play-in game for the NCAAs.

Right now, my expectation is we will be sitting at 3-5 in league play after the Villanova game on January 24th. This place will probably be in full meltdown mode and calling for Wojo's head. But we'll be done with 'Nova and have the other two Tier 1 teams at home, needing to go 7-3 in our last 10 to secure a bid. At that point, if we could win the 5 home games and get 2 of 3 from DePaul, Providence, and St. John's on the road, we get to 10 wins.

[goldeneagle91114]

just a gut feeling, but i think we are 2 years away

I don't see us getting to 10-8. Next year i think we may take a small step back (but for the better in the long term) as young players step up into roles they are not accustomed to.

Then, with hanni as a senior, and the young talent developed, i think we have a shot.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Pretty much what Brew said.

But I do think @ Butler on Monday 2 days after both played is doable if we shoot it well.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think its fair to say that currently Marquette seems to be stuck in the middle of the conference with Seton Hall. We have seven games against the teams above us (Nova, Creighton, Butler, and X) and seven against the teams below us (Gtwn, Prov, SJU, and DPL). The easiest route is sweeping the 7 against the bottom 4 and going 1-6 against the top 4.

It is very unlikely that we will go 7-0 against the four teams below us. We will drop a game or two against them. When we do, it will not mean the end of our season. It just means that we need to win an extra one against the top 4. Missed opportunity yes, end of the line, no.

[MarquetteDano]

I think its fair to say that currently Marquette seems to be stuck in the middle of the conference with Seton Hall. We have seven games against the teams above us (Nova, Creighton, Butler, and X) and seven against the teams below us (Gtwn, Prov, SJU, and DPL). The easiest route is sweeping the 7 against the bottom 4 and going 1-6 against the top 4.

It is very unlikely that we will go 7-0 against the four teams below us. We will drop a game or two against them. When we do, it will not mean the end of our season. It just means that we need to win an extra one against the top 4. Missed opportunity yes, end of the line, no.

If we are going to the Dance,  I really think we need to go 6-1 minimum (7-1 overall with G'Town win) against the teams below us.  That way we only have to go 2-5 against the Top 4 (really 2-6 with Nova).   I would be happily stunned if we go 3-4 or better.

[GWSwarrior]

I still view the league in three tiers. Here's how I see it the rest of the way:

Tier 3: DePaul, St. John's, Providence

My expectation is 6-0. SJU and PC away could both be tough, but if we're a tourney team, these are the types of teams we have to beat no matter where we play. The team can't overlook these games, because they definitely can't afford to slip up.

Tier 2: Georgetown, Seton Hall, Xavier

Need to go 1-2 at worst. Done with SHU and got the easy one with GT out of the way. I don't expect a win at Cintas, where XU has only lost once in the past two seasons, but we need to get one of either GT on the road (doable) or Xavier at home (also doable).

Tier 1: Butler, Creighton, Villanova

Need to go 1-4 in these games. I still believe we can beat 'Nova at home, but MU fans should be bracing for a 3-game losing streak after we beat DePaul on Saturday (because that's absolute must win if we're a tourney team) because on paper, the two most likely will either be Butler or Creighton at home. If we come into the final game sitting at 9-8 in league, that's going to be a very tense affair with Creighton. Essentially a play-in game for the NCAAs.

Right now, my expectation is we will be sitting at 3-5 in league play after the Villanova game on January 24th. This place will probably be in full meltdown mode and calling for Wojo's head. But we'll be done with 'Nova and have the other two Tier 1 teams at home, needing to go 7-3 in our last 10 to secure a bid. At that point, if we could win the 5 home games and get 2 of 3 from DePaul, Providence, and St. John's on the road, we get to 10 wins.

I feel like we could win the BE and plenty of people on this board would still call for his head

[jesmu84]

Gonna be real tough to beat the top of the BE at home if the refs keep giving us the same home-court "advantage" they did last night

[Lennys Tap]

I still view the league in three tiers. Here's how I see it the rest of the way:

Tier 3: DePaul, St. John's, Providence

My expectation is 6-0. SJU and PC away could both be tough, but if we're a tourney team, these are the types of teams we have to beat no matter where we play. The team can't overlook these games, because they definitely can't afford to slip up.

Tier 2: Georgetown, Seton Hall, Xavier

Need to go 1-2 at worst. Done with SHU and got the easy one with GT out of the way. I don't expect a win at Cintas, where XU has only lost once in the past two seasons, but we need to get one of either GT on the road (doable) or Xavier at home (also doable).

Tier 1: Butler, Creighton, Villanova

Need to go 1-4 in these games. I still believe we can beat 'Nova at home, but MU fans should be bracing for a 3-game losing streak after we beat DePaul on Saturday (because that's absolute must win if we're a tourney team) because on paper, the two most likely will either be Butler or Creighton at home. If we come into the final game sitting at 9-8 in league, that's going to be a very tense affair with Creighton. Essentially a play-in game for the NCAAs.

Right now, my expectation is we will be sitting at 3-5 in league play after the Villanova game on January 24th. This place will probably be in full meltdown mode and calling for Wojo's head. But we'll be done with 'Nova and have the other two Tier 1 teams at home, needing to go 7-3 in our last 10 to secure a bid. At that point, if we could win the 5 home games and get 2 of 3 from DePaul, Providence, and St. John's on the road, we get to 10 wins.

Agree. 10-8 is doable.

[MUMountin]

I know it isn't likely that we win any of the three after DePaul, but the game on Monday seems to be the best chance to steal one against one of those three.  I'm hoping that we take care of business on Saturday, and then surprise Butler on the road for an oddly-timed Monday day game, with them coming off a big home game against Xavier.  Just feels like the potential for a trap game for them. 

We do that, and all of a sudden we are sitting at 4-2 with good potential to get to 7-4 before the next Butler game at home.  Still would need three out of seven down the stretch to get to 10-8 against a tough slate--but doable.

DePaul 
@#12 Butler 
@#8 Creighton 
#3 Villanova 
Providence
St John's
@DePaul
#12 Butler
@Georgetown
#15 Xavier
St John's
@Providence
@#15 Xavier
#8 Creighton

[geps]

Pretty clear IMO.  We just beat SH at home which we did not do last year then we beat DePaul and there's your 2 additional wins. Assuming we hold serve to last year's record with the rest of BE.

[brewcity77]

Pretty clear IMO.  We just beat SH at home which we did not do last year then we beat DePaul and there your 2 additional wins. Assuming we hold serve to last year's record with the rest of BE.

This is true, but requires splitting with much better Butler and Creighton teams. Not impossible, but not easy.

[geps]

This is true, but requires splitting with much better Butler and Creighton teams. Not impossible, but not easy.

I don't think Butler is better than last year. At best equal so we should beat at home. Creighton probably better but still beatable. However, XU is slightly worse than last year so hoping for home win which would be 11 BE wins. Or sub out CU for XU and back to 10.

[VegasWarrior77]

I think 11-7 is doable:

DePaul
@#12 Butler 
@#8 Creighton 
#3 Villanova 
Providence
St John's
@DePaul
#12 Butler
@Georgetown
#15 Xavier
St John's
@Providence
@#15 Xavier
#8 Creighton

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

All goes to show why the bed wetting at SHU we prove to be monumental

[Tugg Speedman]

All goes to show why the bed wetting at SHU we prove to be monumental

We will steal one the other way before the season is over.

[blikemike2]

So I guess we could get to 10-8 without a win against the big 4 in the Big East, the question is will our resume be good enough if we don't have a Butler or Xavier scalp?


Thoughts?

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

8 losses implies we beat one of them as we have already lost to shu.  That would make 9
UWM guy?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

So I guess we could get to 10-8 without a win against the big 4 in the Big East, the question is will our resume be good enough if we don't have a Butler or Xavier scalp?


Thoughts?

We can't get to 10-8 without beating one of the top 4.  We already lost to Seton Hall.

If we sweep the bottom four and win at home against Xavier (most likely win against top 4) we would end up with and RPI of 54 and a SOS of 52. Bubblicious but I would think we would be in with a win in NYC.